Can You Ever Have too Much Pitching?
There is an old saying in baseball that you can never have too much pitching, so it seems logical that Dodger fans want Andrew Friedman to pick up more pitchers. Some Dodger fans thought that Andrew Friedman would sign Justin Verlander or Jacob deGrom. He didn’t sign either one…
There is an old saying in baseball that you can never have too much pitching, so it seems logical that Dodger fans want Andrew Friedman to pick up more pitchers. Some Dodger fans thought that Andrew Friedman would sign Justin Verlander or Jacob deGrom. He didn’t sign either one and then proceeded to let Andrew Heaney, Tyler Anderson, Chris Martin, and Tommy Kahnle walk. Now I hear Dodger fans want to trade for a closer, such as Liam Hendriks. You can never have too much pitching… Right? Others want Friedman to sign Carlos Rodon, Chris Bassitt, or some other Starting Pitcher because you can never have too much pitching… Right?
In the case of the Dodgers and having too much pitching, I say that is wrong! You can only carry 12 or 13 pitchers on the roster at a time, and if you have a very good farm system as the Dodgers do, you HAVE to let them grow into roles they may be ready for. Andrew Friedman is not afraid to try new things. Over the past several years he has demonstrated a proclivity to take on pitchers who were injured or out of sorts as reclaimation projects. He was successful with some and not successful with others.
Brandon Morrow was a success story. So were Tyler Anderson, Evan Phillips, Yency Almonte, Andrew Heaney, and Chris Martin. Danny Duffy, Tommy Kahnle, and others that Friedman invested in were not a good deal. I suspect he will not be so active in the future in acquiring injured players. Still, I do not blame him for trying. It’s classic low risk – high reward!
The truth is: the Dodgers do not need to add any expensive pitching. We don’t know when Bobby Miller will be ready, but it very well could be THIS year. Ryan Pepiot and Gavin Stone ARE ready ths year. One of the things I have disagreed with Andrew Friedman about is that he sometimes holds back players… especially pitchers. Unless he bombs during Spring Training (and that could happen), Gavin Stone needs to be moved to the 40-man roster and be on the Opening Day Dodger Roster. Ryan Pepiot is right there too.
Let’s look at what the Dodgers starting pitchers look like right about now (the order is irrelevant):
- Julio Urias (one of the top starters in baseball)
- Dustin May (he has been used very cautiously and now will be ready for 120+ innings)
- Tony Gonsolin (no evidence his injury was anything but arm fatigue)
- Clayton Kershaw (I will take a duplication of what he did last year)
- Gavin Stone (I have been beating this drum for a while)
- Ryan Pepiot (a 3.47 ERA as a rookie is pretty dang good – expect improvement)
- Bobby Miller (great expectations but has not delivered)
- Mike Grove (he performed as expected and may not be a starter)
- Trevor Bauer (the 800 Pound Gorilla in the Room – Public Perception is now more on his side)
That is enough depth. Walker Buehler will be back in 2024, and it is not a definite thing that he will be dominant again… be we wait and see. Gonsolin realized his potential last year. Hopefully, this is the year for Dustin May. You have to give it the opportunity. You can have too much pitching if you are blocking the kids.
Then I hear that the Dodgers need a closer – Liam Hendriks has been mentioned, even though the White Sox say they have no intention of trading him. Remember the last closer we acquired from the White Sox? No, thank you! Liam Hendriks will be 34 next season. He toiled in the A’s system for 7 or 8 years until he became their closer. He has a 3.81 ERA in his career and typically blows 4 to 7 saves a year. The problem with Dodger fans is that they see what a guy was, not what he will be! Liam Hendriks is the Flavor of the Week!
You can have Liam Hendriks, and I will take Evan Phillips (1.14 ERA/0.76 WHIP). He’s almost six years younger, and he is ready to close. If he falters, the Dodgers have Daniel Hudson (2.22 ERA, 5-6 in save opportunities last year), Yency Almonte (1.02 ERA & filthy), and Alex Vesia (2.15 ERA). All of them had a better ERA than Hendriks! Like Hendriks, they have not been established closers as yet, but I will take the Dodger’s back-end of the bullpen over just about anyone’s. That bullpen includes the following:
- Caleb Ferguson (1.82 ERA)
- Andre Jackson (1.86 ERA – he is going to be outstanding as a reliever)
- Jake Reed (1.93 ERA – AF sees something in him and so do I)
- Bazooka (he just needs a little tweak to become unhittable – but I can’t guarantee it)
- Phil Bickford (not spectacular but reliable)
- Victor Gonzalez (said to be pain-free and svelte)
- Shelby Miller (another rehab project)
With Hudson, Phillips, Vesia, and Almonte, that is an outstanding bullpen! Just say no to Liam Hendriks.
Paid Professional Sportswriters are Frequently Wrong!
Witness Jon Heyman trying to he the first to break a story and spouting false information. Heyman is connected to many people within the game, but someone gave him some false information, and he was quick to pass it on. He wanted to be the Hero and instead was branded the GOAT (and I do not mean G.O.A.T.). During this time of year, believe half of what you see and none of what you read. Guys like Andrew Friedman will mislead you. At this juncture, I’d say my record is better than Heyman’s, so you need to give me a raise! 😉
I hear that Farhan is suicidal today!
Rule 5 Draft Today
The Dodgers could lose five players on None… or something in-between. It depends upon what other teams value.
Aaron Bates Promoted
With Brandt Brown moving to the Marlins, Aaron bates will become the hitting coach along with Robert Van Scoyoc. It remains to be seen what that means… if anything. I have heard rumblings that AF wants to cut down on strikeouts (if only by 10%).
Goodbye, Cody, We will remember you back in 2019. Good Luck (except when playing the Dodgers)
Mitch Haniger
The Giants are paying him to be a solid starter, but he will be 32 and has seldom been healthy. I put this is the category of a “dope-fiend move.” 3 Year/$43.5 Million deal. The Dodgers are going to be “bottom feeders” on this. I like a $3 Million/1 Year deal for Andrew McCutchen. That may or may not happen, but this is what the Dodgers are looking for in LF.
Patience Grasshoppers! Something will happen at SS, but it may not even be this year (2022). It might be sometime in 2023!
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Discussion (113)
Disagree, not disagreeable
Thank you to all of you. I’ll hopefully be back. Long story short I was born with a disability and have been shunned by the other gender all my life and some cruel words have been used.
Mark –
I think your analysis of Dodger pitching philosophy and 2023 options is right on. I think this is the year to see who among the young pitchers is a “keeper” and who isn’t. I don’t think $40M+ per year for 40-year olds is good strategy (i.ie. Mets). We should be thankful for the pitching coaching staff throughout the organization.
You also made a good point yesterday in one of your comments regarding Bellinger and his move to the Cubs. You pointed out that if he is able to regain his confidence and swing there it will reflect poorly on RVS, I agree and am rooting for Bellie to turn it around.
Sadly, I can’t say I am impressed with the Dodger organization’s hitting instructors. Remember back in the 1970s when we had a home grown infield that hit more that their weight – Garvey, Cey, Lopes and Russell. Let’s give the young hitters in the organization (Vargas, Outman, etc.) the chance to show what they can do in 2023 and in the process evaluate Dodger organization hitting instructors.
Reports that padres offered Judge 10-400
Wtf
Eric –
As a veteran human being, I have navigated through some difficult times in my life as I am sure many others on this site have. It is easy to dwell on our problems and negative life experiences especially if we are isolated. Building your own support network is essential whether it is professionals, family, friends, etc. LADT is a one of those support elements because it connects you with contemporaries who share a common interest. Jim Valvano, a young, successful college basketball coach said it best in a 1993 speech just before he passed in his “Don’t Ever Give Up” speech. Google it and good luck!
Excellent write up Mark. The starting pitching will have some injuries during the year. With Gonsolin and Kershaw it’s almost assured. So, will AF add a veteran or go with the prospects? I think initially he will use either Stone, Pepiot, Miller, or Grove. I like Grove for the BP. He seemed to not be afraid to attack the hitters and threw strikes. It would be nice to have the Bauer conundrum resolved soon. If the youngsters aren’t effective then a trade or two might be in the cards. The price for pitching in the FA market is crazy. AF will wait until the madness stops if he wants to make a move
I agree that Hendriks isn’t needed especially with the cost involved. There’s usually a reason a team is willing to trade a successful closer. He’s not going to be effective in the future. The Dodgers experienced that scenario last season with Kimbrel. Just read Kenley signed with Boston.
Carry on
Welcome back Eric! All those in favor of doubling Mark’s salary say aye! What am I ever going to complain about next year now that Bellinger is a Cub. Help me out here B&P! In all seriousness, I wish him well and hope that he can find the magic once again. Just not at Dodger Stadium!
Kenley is a Red Sox
2 years $32m
World’s gone mad.
Judge stays with Yanks. 9 years 360
Go Dodgers!!!!!!!
But of course, I am. They give me all kinds of freebies and pay me huge amounts of money to do that. Actually, I get nothing… not even a Christmas card anymore (I used to get them).
So, if that makes me an ass-kisser, I guess you are just the ass!
Peanut Gallery: a source of insignificant criticism.
joke or name-calling?
You would not have believed the posts he sent that I blocked. Ask B & P he saw them. It was the vilest of the vile.
So much for peace on earth, good will toward fellow Dodger fans.
Thanks Eric for your transparency, we care about you.
Thanks for the article, Mark.
Dodgers are taking a very patient approach to the off-season so far, while the Padres and Giants are very active pursuing free agents. The Dodgers have lost significant talent from last year’s team through free agency and injury including:
Staff ace and 2 other starters – Buehler, Anderson, Heaney
4 everyday starters at SS, CF, 3B, and LF- TT, Belli, JT, Gallo/Pollock
4 relievers including closer and setup man- Treinen, Kimbrel, Martin, Kahnle.
These are significant losses and many were choices made by the GM to not bring back these players. And to date the Dodgers have done nothing to replace the talent loss.
Alternatively, the team that eliminated the Dodgers have made offers of $342 million to TT and $400 million to Judge in the last 24 hours. They also added Soto, Hader, Bell, and Drury at the trade deadline while the Dodgers brought in Gallo! And the Padres have Tatis returning next year also.
At this point, the Padres have urgency to win now while the Dodgers seem content to rebuild.
Also, other NL teams like Phils, Mets, Cards, and Braves have improved their rosters more than the Dodgers so far.
I understand that Friedman tends to wait out the overpays, but there is a risk that the market has moved away from him, and now other teams have larger budgets than the Dodgers.
Hopefully, Friedman can find good replacements for the 11 players that have been lost from last years team, and put together a roster that can compete for the playoffs and World Series.
Here’s my attempt at (and I say this with love and admiration) a Timmons-esque conspiracy theory
Friedman is waiting until Dodgers fans become so impatient for a move that all predispositions to Correa are countered and the fanbase welcomes him.
I like the youth movement that seems to be developing. My only ask is for a veteran SS to solidify an infield that might include Vargas and Lux.
Good questions Mark.
I hope you are correct.
Rosenthal just wrote an article on The Athletic claiming Dodgers are not pursuing Correa due to fan base concerns regarding his cheating with Astros, as well as uncertainty regarding the Bauer appeal. He claims that the back pay could be zero or as high as $100 million which would trigger the luxury tax.
He suggests that Dodger moves will be limited to mid-range starter, CF like Kiermaier, and maybe a bat like JD Martinez. Also says Dodgers covet two players next year; Ohtani and Sasaki who is expected to be posted next year.
The Dodgers 3 players to Rule 5 in the first round – Out of 15 Players taken.
1. Ryan Noda
2. Jose Hernandez
2. Gus Varland
Masataka Yoshida signs a 5 year/90mil deal with Boston
Ryan Noda will likely stick with the A’s – Good for him. He had no future here.
Gus Varland could be a steal for the Brewers. A failed starter, they moved him to the bullpen the last two months of the season (Tulsa), and his fastball regularly peaked at 98 MPH, and he struck out 31 in 18.1 innings over the last two months of 2022. Of course, it’s a small sampling.
The Dodgers have 3 holes to fill on the 40 man roster not counting the elephant in the room with $31M below the cap including Bauer’s salary.
I agree with Mark about the pitching. They don’t have a need there. The bullpen’s top 8 is as deep as it gets and the Rotation has Kershaw, Urias, Gonsolin and May to start with and 4 young pitchers just about every team would covet that are very close to major league ready in Miller, Stone, Pepiot and Grove. They have another tier of pitchers that are still very good, not quite as ready in Knack, Nastrini, Bruns, Kopp, Frasso and Sheehan. THen a few more, Duran, Hurt, Heubeck. The list seems never-ending. That’s not to say another project like Heaney or Anderson isn’t in order. And it’s not to say they can fix everyone, every time.
All they really need to do is sign the bat to replace Trea Turner and are holding out for elite players. Judge might have been plan A, which could be why they haven’t signed anyone so far. Now, it’s time for plan B and then plan C or D if necessary.
To me, it looks like they didn’t like Trea at that price. They talked contract extension while he was here, it was clear that he wanted to go back East. I don’t think the money would have worked for AF even if he wanted to stay. I was surprised they signed Mookie to the contract they did and I didn’t like it at the time and still don’t. But, that’s the world we live in. The one where 80 year old pitchers get 40M and taking 20% of the cap all to themselves.
The Dodgers will spend some money, but don’t want to box themselves in on these long contracts if they can help. They’re probably trying to go high AAV and see if someone bites.
Unlike Mark, I think Haniger would have been a good signing and was disappointed that the Giants would up with him. That would have filled a big hole in the outfield and his cost is reasonable. We don’t need him to play every day. Just be there in the postseason like Pollock.
I wrote about this the other day. We lost The Turners and Belli. Outman and Vargas should be able to provide the offense that Belli and JT provided last year. We’re Even Steven. Get a bat that’s as good or better than Trea and we’re in business. We have 30M to work with. Much more if we want to catch the Mets and Yankees.
When the Dodgers jump early in the offseason, it’s because they’re getting VALUE (Cheap, but possibly good) like Andrew Heaney last year, or Shelby Miller this year. They waiting it out for Freddie and Bauer. There’s plenty of time and talent remaining.
Can you provide an example of this bat that’s as good or better than Trea’s that you see out there?
Anybody interested in an AJ Pollock reunion in left for the right price with Outman in center? Please no Swanson!
A few days ago I declared that Verlander would be AF’s marquee deal and that Lux would get a serious shot a SS.
I still think I’m half right.
With a lot of big names off the board–now including my crush Yoshida–here’s some semi-educated guesswork about what comes next.
–Correa to Giants.
–Swanson to Cubs
–Bogaerts stays in Boston
–Adames is not dealt
–Rodon to Yankees
–Senga to a team that is not the Dodgers
–Nimmo to…. Giants? Blue Jays? (Not the Dodgers.)
Given their history, AF brining in Keirmaier makes some sense. In interviews Roberts has signaled some serious doubt about who could succeed Belli in center.
By the way, I remain annoyed that the Dodgers basically get nothing for Ryan Noda and others lost in the Rule 5 draft. An Oakland rep said they had been interested in Noda for a while–that his name came up in the Kolarek talks. They love his power and his walks. With Freddie at first, Noda was blocked.
Before the Dodgers signed Freddie, I really wanted the Dodgers work a deal with the As for Matt Chapman. Getting a young gold glove third baseman with power seemed like a no brainer, because JT and Muncy could shift into 1B/DH roles and Vargas was still young and unproven. Perhaps Billy Beane wanted too much–but we now at least know that Noda could have been a sweetener.
Even after Freddie was signed, I still wanted Chapman though it made a bit less sense.
At any rate, it was the Blue Jays who got Chapman.
He didn’t have a great season, but not terrible either, with a .757 OPS and 27 HRs over 155 games. (Pretty sturdy, right?) He was, as usual, a Gold Glove finalist, and probably won a couple games with the leather. (If Belli had put the offense that Chapman produced, he’d still be a Dodger–and not bat ninth.).
Neither Muncy or JT were great defenders at 3B. And while their offense improved a lot in the second half, neither were as productive as Chapman. JT had a better OPS at .788, but only 13 HRs. Muncy finished at .713 and 21 HRs.
A year from now, look for my post about why AF blew it on Yoshida.
Bogaerts just signed an 11-year deal with the Padres.