I should have thought of this before, but Andrew Friedman can’t go trading a number of Prospects for Bryan Reynolds without first seeing how Gavin Lux handles SS and, to a lesser degree… how Miguel Vargas handles 2B. If Lux and Vargas settle in as a solid Keystone Combination up the middle, then if James Outman has not been the second-coming, the Dodgers can afford to go out and get a SS, such as the guy in Cleveland (but that depends upon if Cleveland is still in the race). If not, then he will check with Milwaukee and see if they can get Adames. Or if Lux does well, but outman doesn’t, then Reynolds is an option then. That’s in July!
If Vargas is solid-to-good-at 2B, then Lux (if he can’t handle SS) could be traded or moved to CF (more likely, he would be traded). I should have known that Friedman was not going to blow his lunch money (prospect collateral) right about now. That will come in June or July. This is what I am sure of:
- Things will not go as planned for the Dodgers; and
- Things will not go as planned for many teams.
Injuries will happen. Slumps and bad seasons will happen. Stuff happens. Nothing ever goes as planned in baseball! Some teams will drop out of the pennant race and have fire sales, and other teams will suddenly realize that they are in the race and need players. It seems highly unlikely that three rookie position players would break camp with the Dodgers, but you just never know. Here is what I think:
- The Dodgers want Jason Heyward to be on this team, but he will have to earn it this Spring;
- Either Duggar or Zimmer must have a great spring to make the team: and
- Trayce Thompson is a long shot.
- The best-case scenario is that Lux and Outman prove they can be everyday players at SS and CF, respectively!
I mean, just consider who are locks to make the team:
- Smith
- Barnes
- Freeman
- Vargas
- Lux
- Muncy
- Taylor
- Martinez
- Betts
- Peralta
- Rojas
That leaves two spots, and I think the Dodgers would like them to be filled by Outman and Heyward. Outman deserves the chance to win the CF job. If he can win the job, that is the best scenario for the Dodgers. I expect to add Heyward and Outman to that list of eleven, and that will be the roster. However, that is what Spring Training is for. Settle in and watch to competition. By-the-way: Andrew Friedman never listens to me!
Just What They Don’t Need: More Pitching
Well, I guess you can never have enough pitching, can you? The Dodgers added Alex Reyes and Rubby De La Rosa to the bullpen, and both could be busts or breakouts along with Shelby Miller. All have had electric stuff in the past. I never pooh-pooh signings like this anymore. All three combined make less than Kimberl or Jansen. It’s a good risk. I used to be really high on RDLR, but various injuries and two Tommy John’s highjacked his career.
I still think Evan Phillips will be the closer… or at least one of them. Speaking of Jansen: He is going to have a big problem with runners on base under the new rules. They will steal everything from Jansen , but the kitchen sink. I do not see how he can close anymore!
Discussion (24)
Disagree, not disagreeable
If you like sound bites, I doubt that you will be successful here… just FYI.
In 2024 season is that when Juan Soto becomes a free agent. Could the Dodgers go after him as a free agent and be their left fielder. With then you could have Soto left field Outman or Reynolds in centerfield and Betts in right field could the Dodger possibly go get him. Now you put Soto in that lineup in 2024. Look out baseball teams now that would be an amazing lineup.
What if instead of focusing on what we don’t have, we concentrate on what we’ve got.
1) Someone said what I have been saying all along and that is non roster position players almost always don’t make the roster on a team like the Dodgers and I will add to it that it will take some sort of collapse for a non roster position player to make it. More on that later when I get to the outfield.
2) Let’s assume Taylor is in the mix in the outfield and that’s the plan.
3) If Vargas fails at 2B because of either defense or hitting or both then he is shipped to AAA and Lux moves over to 2B and Rojas becomes the SS. 2 questions: Does AF want a shitty hitting starting SS? And. Who is the utility infielder? The only option is Taylor. More on that later when I get to the Outfield.
4) If it’s Lux that sucks defensively at SS and Vargas works out at 2B then Rojas becomes the SS and Lux is on the bench or sorry Vargas we are not putting Lux on the bench so Lux will be playing 2B and Vargas is sent to AAA and Taylor might be needed at some point in the infield. Question: Does AF want a shitty hitting starting SS?
5) I’m going to give you the outfielders career splits to show you there has to be at least 1 platoon if not 2 in the outfield and because several people think Heyward might make it onto the roster I will include him.
Thompson .228/.315/.436/.751 vs RHP, .210/.281/.430/.711 vs LHP
Taylor .257/.331/.429/.760 vs RHP, .253/.334/.440/.774 vs LHP
Heyward .267/.353/.432/.785 vs RHP, .231/.302/.340/.642 vs LHP
Peralta .294/.350/.486/.836 vs RHP, .238/.302/.361/.663
Outman will hit RHP but is a question mark vs LHP.
6) As you can see Thompson is decent against RHP. Taylor is decent against both RHP and LHP. Heyward is decent against RHP. Peralta is good against RHP. The best options in the outfield are Peralta and Taylor and that would make a fairly good platoon in LF. Besides them there are 3 options against RHP and Outman that might hit LHP. You don’t want Outman on the bench, he’s better off in AAA. Question: Who is going to handle CF. If it’s Outman then who is going to platoon with him if he can’t hit LHP? If it’s Thompson or Heyward then who is going to platoon with one of them? Problem solved if Outman can hit LHP. Keep in mind Taylor might be needed to start in the infield and if that happens you have at least 1 problem in the outfield LF and maybe 2 – CF. So how the hell do you solve 1 maybe 2 problems with Heyward and Thompson, because they can’t hit LHP? Busch? No, between AA and AAA he hit .235 BA and .780 OPS against LHP. That’s not very good stats in the minors. Can he hit that in MLB this year (that’s below average stats) or can he exceed that in MLB this year? The answer is almost 100% no. So because there might be up to 2 problems in the outfield, because of the lack of hitting LHP. There has to be an outfielder that’s going to make the team that hits LHP. Who is that I don’t know.
7) There are 11 locks making the team: Martinez, Peralta, Taylor, Betts, Freeman, Muncy, Lux, Rojas, Smith, Barnes, and the outfielder that hits LHP. 2 that are in line first Outman and Vargas. If Outman and Vargas make the team then the roster is set and niether Thompson or Heyward make the team. Thompson or Heyward are there if Outman doesn’t make the team. But if Vargas doesn’t make the team then Taylor might be needed at some point in the infield then that creates a lack of hitting a LHP problem in the outfield that neither Thompson nor Heyward can solve. I guess the Dodgers can go without that and carry both Thompson and Heyward but that doesn’t make sense.
8) Bottom line Thompson and Heyward are long shots to make the team, but maybe one of them will, maybe, but not both. It would take a collapse (Vargas and Outman both don’t make the team) for both Thompson and Heyward to make the team and there would be a lack of someone that’s good at hitting LHP if that happens. So there is a move coming for an outfielder that hits LHP good. I guarantee it. That means 11 locks with Vargas and Outman the favorites for the remaining 2 spots.
9) Or a Reynold trade is coming (but I doubt it) and most likely to play LF with Outman in CF with Peralta and Taylor on the bench with possibly Taylor platooning with Outman (13 spots filled). Or Outman is sent to AAA with Peralta and Taylor platooning and there will be a need in the outfield for the last spot and that will be either Thompson or Heyward.
Damn I could have wrote this and gave it to Mark to approve it for up top. Lol.
Just my 2 cents.
Supposedly the price has dropped
Absolutely if you want the player. Every team has players that would be mush better in a different uniform. Reynolds is such a player. 95 percent of dodger fans would give 3 very good prospects for Reynolds. Makes sense
Yeah. I think they are. Tired of coming up short. You have the resources, use them. Prospects don’t last forever.
Jd- 290/23hr/33doubles. Max 235/33hr/88rbi. Will. 26hr/90rbi. Freddie 298/34hr/112rbi. Vargas 277/22hr/77rbi. Gavin. 293/18hr/24sb. Mookie. 288/27hr/ 80rbi. Add Reynolds!! What a lineup!
Also, think about this: If JDM has a good to a great season, the Dodgers can extend him the QO for about a 9 Million pay increase or get an additional pick.
Thought provoking write up today Mark, good job. Getting me all pumped to get some games rolling. I to would like to see that lineup but so much can happen between now and start of season just never know what surprises could come our way. Also deadline should be very interesting which all makes for even more excitement. I’m not sure why but got this good feeling for this year. Let’s get a parade and celebrate it right
I am going into Spring Training believing (and hoping) that this alignment works:
C – Smith
1B – Freeman
2B – Vargas
SS – Lux
3B – Muncy
LF – Peralta/Taylor/Heyward
CF – Outman
RF- Betts
If Lux, Vargas, and Outman show they can handle their respective positions, then all will be good. My biggest worry is Lux, but if he can pull it off defensively and elevate his game offensively, then that is a good start. I have no doubt Outman can play CF – can he hit? If he can hit .250 to .260 he will hit 30 HR. But can he hit lefties? That is the question. We have to see which way the Dominos fall…
Most likely Miguel Rojas is the back up plan should Lux fail to fill the void at SS. We know Lux’s bat plays at the major league level. So the only question tied to him is: what position is he going to play longterm?
Although, I have my doubts about his ability to remain at SS, I’m pulling for the kid. If Lux is unable to remain at SS, the Dodgers are likely going to be facing a black hole at the position in the near future. We could potentially find ourselves looking back and ask how a financially rich organization like the Dodgers fail to lock up one of the two top SS of this generation?
I have a hard time seeing the Dodgers opening the season with question marks at 3 separate positions. I envision the Dodgers going with Lux at SS and Vargas at 3B/2B, but compounding that with Outman in CF seems like a bit of a stretch for a team that is looking to contend this season.
I believe the Dodgers will be making a move before the start of the season.
What does anyone think about looking at Smith at third during spring training? In 2024 I’d like to see Smith at third and Cartaya/Rushing platoon at catcher/DH. Martinez is probably about done.
For most of this winter I figured the Dodgers would go with what they have, early winter acquisitions and all, and wait for the deadline. But my vision at the time had Outman and Thompson sharing center and Taylor/maybe Busch in left. Now they sign Peralta for a surprising sum of money and I don’t know what to think. That’s why yesterday I said yeah, ok, send those older guys there is no room for, Busch and Outman, to Pittsburgh for a guy who wants out of Pittsburgh. Those rookies would likely be play right away there and honestly we wouldn’t miss either of them this year and the system would still be stacked.
Some say players out of nowhere can make the roster out of Spring Training. I say not on the Dodgers. I say they already know what they want to do. Those two roster spots are penciled in. It would take colossal collapses in March to change that. But then, I also admit I don’t know anything.
I can’t offer much at this point. I’m going to have a hot cinnamon roll and wait for the game. I like KC but I think Philadelphia will win a close one.
We don’t need Reynolds at the start of the season or even at the trading deadline. Save the prospect capital for a player or players that will put you over the top in October for a World Series ring at the trading deadline. Reynolds is not that player. Wait and see how things play out with the rookies. I believe nobody will run away and hide in our division with the balanced schedule. Just make the playoffs, be healthy and play your best baseball with your best possible roster in October. That’s the formula for success. AF is the best. Trust him.
Who is betting on the Super Bowl? I just put $300 on the Eagles on the moneyline.
Why is Trayce a longshot?
I want Outman in CF. He will entertain.
I agree with much of what you wrote here, Mark. The tea leaves have been hard to read for the Dodger’s off-season but that is part of what makes this season so intriguing. There is going to be competition at two outfield spots and the questions about Lux and Vargas up the middle.
The Dodgers are going to be forced to make some decisions about their 40 man roster next off-season which may make some of these prospects more likely to be traded rather lost for nothing.
Like the addition of Peralta in left though it appears to make it more difficult for Busch to play. Taylor would certainly appear to be more of an option in the outfield barring injuries or issues with Lux or Vargas. Not sure what the Peralta signing means for Heyward’s chances of making the team since most seem to think he is not a center fielder any more.
I still think the prospect price for Reynolds may be be too high. I can see giving up Pepiot and Busch but would hesitate to throw in Rushing. A couple of lesser prospects that were mentioned seem to be more reasonable. I know Reynolds is better than Varsho but he fetched a top catching prospect who is ML ready and Lourdes Gourriel. Though Varsho had a WAR only .5 or so below Reynolds and is considered by many to be a better center fielder. Generally, Dodgers under Friedman have done a good job of identifying prospects they could trade from those they need to keep (Yordan Alvarez and O’Neil Cruz aside).
As Mark has mentioned many times, AF is always looking at the present and the future at the same time. He added a year for Treinen even though he will most likely miss the 2023 season, he acquired JP Freyerisen and now Alex Reyes who both won’t be ready until after the all-star break. Coupled with young guns he most likely will not need to go relief pitch hunting at the trade deadline and will instead use some young assets for position players.
He has backstopped the decision to go young with Vargas and Outman by getting Rojas, Peralta, Heyward, Zimmer and Duggar. If Vargas is overmatched in the big leagues he can insert Rojas into the everyday starting line-up. If Lux can’t handle SS Rojas can plug and play there. If Busch and/or Outman light it up in ST and earn an opening day spot on the roster he can make an effort to see if Zimmer, Duggar and even Heyward to want a AAA assignment while awaiting the eventual injury or slump.
Let the Padres win the off season but when the bell rings on the 2023 season, lets see what AF has put together and see if his NL West dominance continues. If I was going to Vegas I would put my money on him!
Go Dodgers!
If Reynolds can be had for a package of Pepiot, Grove, Ramos and Busch I would do it now. Asking price will only go higher at the deadline. Player wants out of Pitt which should give some leverage.
If needed throw in another player like Leonhard or Vivas or a lower level prospect. Or upgrade Ramos to Pages.
IMHO Lux will surprise a lot of fans and play some good ss. I am more worried about Vargas at 2 b. Almost no experience there. Maybe it will come down to Rojas at ss and Lux at 2b.
Go Dodgers!!!!!!!!!1
Do the deal Friedman! Reynolds gives us a 280 hitter w/ 25& 80 every year for the next 3 years!!! Agree with marks earlier post not Rushing, but another prospect. Look for Thor to have a very strong year. If Tony goes down, then Gavin stone steps right in and we don’t miss a beat! Dustin may might, could be the baddest dude in the rotation! Like the Peralta signing to platoon with Taylor. Really hope Heyward makes the team. Great defense and I really believe he hits enough to justify his spot! Thompson? I like him but just don’t think he breaks camp with big league team. Duggar and Zimmer? No shot. Super bowl? Don’t really care who wins but watching Mahomes always fun! College basketball really good right now! Go hoops and go Dodgers!
This year and next year, the Dodgers will have 10-14 players who are technically ready for the show. Some are going to have to be traded…. and there could be a big one.
If Gonsolin is healthy and May reaches his potential then trading Pepiot is more likely. With the Peralta signing it looks like Busch is odd man out. So a deadline trade involving Pepiot and Busch looking more likely to fill a need. Hopefully they both have good first halves in OKC
Huh? If Lux and Vargas settle in at SS and 2b they can afford to get a SS? Is that supposed to say a CF?
I agree they need so sort it out during spring training, which makes the timing of signing Peralta curious. As you said yesterday that makes more sense if a trade is looming.