Buehler & Kimbrel – Same Worry, Different Reasons
By many pitchers’ standards, Walker Buehler’s numbers are pretty good, but they are certainly not up to his normal standards. As fans, it is easy to say that his fastball is declining, but that is a rather simplistic overview. Of course, over time a pitcher’s fastball will…
By many pitchers’ standards, Walker Buehler’s numbers are pretty good, but they are certainly not up to his normal standards. As fans, it is easy to say that his fastball is declining, but that is a rather simplistic overview. Of course, over time a pitcher’s fastball will decline or if it doesn’t he will ultimately need Tommy John Surgery. It was never sustainable for Walker Buehler to pitch at 98 to 100 MPH. Walker is a strong man, but his frame is slight. Much like Pedro Martinez, who dropped some velocity in his prime, it is not surprising that Walker has dropped a few MPH on his 4-seamer.
Average Fastball Velocity over the years:
- 2017 – 98.2 MPH
- 2018 – 95.7 MPH
- 2019 – 95.9 MPH
- 2020 – 96.1 MPH
- 2021 – 94.4 MPH
- 2022 – 93.5 MPH
Walker threw much harder in his rookie year than any other year. In his second year, his velocity dropped by about 2.5 MPH. That happens a lot with young pitchers and Walker has said that he is trying to become more of a pitcher, instead of just a “thrower.” For some reason, we know that his spin rate is also down – maybe that has to do with not having “sticky fingers?” I am not sure about that one.
Here are some other interesting things to consider.
Average Exit Velocity
2017 – 90.2 MPH
2018 – 87.9 MPH
2019 – 89.3 MPH
2020 – 90.0 MPH
2021 – 88.2 MPH
2022 – 87.0 MPH
So, his exit velocity is the lowest of his career. Hitters are not sending the pitches out as fast, probably because they are not coming in as fast?
Breaking Ball Velocity
2017 – 85.5 MPH
2018 – 83.9 MPH
2019 – 84.0 MPH
2020 – 83.7 MPH
2021 – 82.5 MPH
2022 – 80.7 MPH
So his breaking balls are also down about 5 MPH from his rookie year, which seems logical because you do want “separation” from your breaking pitches and fastball. So, some fans want to believe that he has arm problems. Others say it is a mechanical issue, while others say it is a conscious effort to change the way he pitches. I say it is more than just “one thing.” Problems and solutions to those problems seldom present themselves in nicely wrapped packages. Issues such as this can be from multiple causes.
It does not appear that he is injured as he has logged extended innings and he can ht 97 MPH. Walker says that it is a “mechanical issue” and I do believe that is a part of his problem, but those who say he is not consciously trying to change the way he pitches ignore the fact that in 2020, Walker threw 53% fastballs. In 2021, that percentage dropped to 44%, and (so far) in 2022, his fastball percentage has dropped to 32%. That is not a mechanical issue – that is a conscious shift for some reason we are not privy to!
I do not believe there is one thing that is responsible for Buehler’s (under) performance. It’s more than a “mechanical problem” – although I do not doubt that is part of the problem. If you take Andrew Friedman, Dave Roberts, or Walker Buehler at their word, you are failing to see the real picture. Of course, they are not going to tell us what is happening. We can only look at the results and jump to conclusions, but I try and look past the obvious and I do not take Walker at his word that it is only a “Mechanical Issue.” We will know more as time passes. To me, it sounds like Walker needs some Driveline TIme with Rob Hill and Company. Stay tuned! At this juncture, I feel that Walker will break out at any time.
Craig Kimbrel
Craig has a history of pitching at a very high level and then inexplicably, pitching like crap. In April he had a 1.80 ERA versus a 6.30 ERA in May. In June and July of last year, he had 0.00 ERA, but in August it was 7.15. In 2020, he had a 0.00 ERA in September after having a 27.00 ERA in July and a 6.75 ERA in August. In 2019, he had a 12.27 ERA before the All-Star Break and a 5.29 ERA after the All-Star Break. I could go on and on, but you get the picture. I was never a fan of Craig, but here we are and I am hoping he pitches as he did in April. It’s just that you cannot expect that. History is not on your side. I wanted Kenley Jansen back. Yes, he was not perfect… he still isn’t.
However, Kenley has a 0.87 WHIP this year while Kimbrel is sitting at 1.40. You can take Craig, but I’ll take Kenley. That said, the Dodgers’ have Kimbrel as their closer, not Jansen, but they had better be looking for a replacement. History says it may be likely. So, you might say, “that’s negative, be positive!” “OK, I am positive that the Dodgers might need a replacement for Kimbrel.”
What we all need to remember is that “problems are opportunities in drag.” When you get lemons, sometimes you just make lemonade. Our Ace may arise from this and be even better and out of the ashes of Craig Kimbrel, may rise a new closer. This is the beauty of baseball. I love this game!
- Andrew Heaney and Clayton Kershaw both experienced positive results after throwing sessions. Both are expected back in the next two to three weeks.
- My son and I will be at the same tonight on Julio Urias Bobblehead Night. We are arriving early to take the special tour. He has never experienced that.
- Saturday night we will be in Rancho Cucamonga for the Quakes Game.
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Discussion (71)
Disagree, not disagreeable
Patch – hope you’re well – and enjoyed yesterday’s lesson in Composers.
Last year after a series against The Pirates I suggested trying to acquire Mr Bednar at the Trade Deadline.
I liked what I saw then, but was even more impressed with his 50 pitch, 2 innings save last night.
B&P glad you enjoyed your concert / festival the other weekend. Been real busy since my trip.
My pal was in Vegas to see Debbie Harry a couple of weeks back.
Think she was the first poster I ever had on my bedroom wall!
Keep up the entertaining banter guys – LADT at its best.
Buehler is a victim of the spider tack in a lot of ways. His spin rate on all his pitches are down. There was a great article in the Athletic that really broke this down. He’s going to have to learn to get by without it. He didn’t have ONE swing and miss on his fastball yesterday and that is very concerning.
He has a leg issue.
I have noticed recently that Cody Bellinger has not been in the starting lineup. Is he injured or just being rested?
WB problems for me are not velocity but placement & movement. A fastball belt high in the middle of the plate is trash whether it’s 92 or 100. Also, a 90 change up is not really a change up if your throwing a 94 fastball. Look at Gonsolin and Anderson. They have actually an inferior fastball at 91, 92, 93 but their off pitches are around 80, so the hitters don’t have to sit and wait for the fastball.
“If you take Andrew Friedman, Dave Roberts, or Walker Buehler at their word, you are failing to see the real picture.”
No one should be taking Roberts at his word. We should’ve learned that on day one when he told the media Andre Ethier had a minor bruise and was perfectly fine.
He’s a PR guy. He’s the Dodger Press Secretary. His dissembling would make even Jen Psaki feel shame (presuming reptilian brains were capable of such things).
I embellish, but it is true that Roberts is there to put a positive spin on things, and Buehler’s comments about being more of a pitcher than a thrower can at least be partially true, but the data says that the four seamer just isn’t as effective. It looks like he’s avoiding having to throw it. He’s dramatically increased the use of a cutter, which he barely threw last year. The eyeballs and intuition align with the stats. Something is up.
I’m at a loss as to what the solution is. I’d be a lot more confident with the acknowledged ace pitching like one. If I was the GM, I’d wait and see how Heaney looks when he comes back. If whatever the Dodgers did to fix him seems to be sticking after he returns, then I might ride it out with the current group of pitchers. Montas is under control until 2024. He’ll be expensive. Eovaldi is giving up a bunch more home runs than last year. He might be having similar spin rate/ no more sticky issues.
Bring some good luck to that game tonight and snap that losing streak!
At the beginning of the season, there was talk that the Dodgers were going to “fix” Kimbrel’s curveball. Maybe they are “fixing” something that isn’t broke. Last night was another boondoggle. I agree that you can’t walk the number 8 hitter after going 1-2. It all unraveled from there. Mookie pulled up on that ball to right field, technically the right move because if he dives and misses, it’s a tie game and a runner at third. He gunned home and a few inches he gets him. If he dives, maybe he catches the ball. Neither happened and the walk scored. No walk, no big deal. The walk changed everything. First blown save on the season. Moving on.
Bueller explanation of mechanics is believable to me. A pitching coach once explained mechanics for pitchers as being like water coming out of hose nozzle. The stream that comes out of the nozzle is optimized and travels at a great distance, but if you introduce the slightest twig into the steam it all goes haywire. That twig in his mechanics are causing the velo, spin and location to be off enough to turn that four seamer from an unhittable pitch to what we see now. It’s a lot like Kenley’s cutter, but not quite as dramatic with the results.
Mark can keep Kenley. He wanted to trade back Mookie for Verdugo earlier this season. This will turn out the same. I’m wondering why Mark saw Lux’s body language on a bad throw, but didn’t see Kenley’s body language when he blew back to back saves against the Giants. Perhaps Kenley left because he felt like he needed a new start somewhere else after several uneven season after signing that big contract with the Dodgers.
What would it take to get David Bednar from the Pirates?
With Treinen out and whatever Kimbrel is at this stage in his career, the relief corps is not up to a championship winning caliber, regardless of the Happy Talk spin.
Haha! That’s the kind of positive negativity I’ve come to expect around here! Otherwise, I would go somewhere else. As far as Bueller goes, I don’t know about the technicalities, but I know last night early in the game whenever he threw that four seamer it was like he was throwing batting practice.
Cheers
Enjoy a great father-son day at DS !HOpefully with a W !
I hope Treinen is not lost for the season in case Kimbrel continues to give up runs at his current rate.
Need that reliable closer in postseason play.
Bad , bad loss yesterday after coming all the way back and taking a lead into the 9th inning.
Go Dodgers!!!!!!!!!!!!!!