Here's Johnny!
I swear that some of the incoherent ramblings I read from some Dodger fans should be prefaced with “ Here’s Johnny! ” First, we hear that the Dodgers need more pitching – of course, even Ray Charles can see that! Fans get excited when they hear that the Dodgers might be in on…
I swear that some of the incoherent ramblings I read from some Dodger fans should be prefaced with “Here’s Johnny!” First, we hear that the Dodgers need more pitching – of course, even Ray Charles can see that! Fans get excited when they hear that the Dodgers might be in on Corbin Burnes or Dylan Cease, but some are not excited about Burnes because he will be a free agent after 2024. As it has been rumored, Willy Adames could also be part of that deal… and Dodger fans are losing their minds that Andrew Friedman and Brandon Gomes would even entertain such a thought. Not so fast – use that head for more than a hatrack!
All I can say is that I am elated that Gomes and Friedman (“Fraudman”or “Friedbrain” as a couple of morons call them) are running the show. I have no idea if the most recent trade suggestion is real or not, but I would jump at the opportunity to trade Lux (coming back from total re-constructive knee surgery) and Emmet Sheehan (who has a lot of promise but no experience) for an Ace and a shortstop who would be a huge upgrade offensively and maybe defensively over last year. Yes, they have one year of control, and the Dodgers could elect to extend Adames. He would be a good candidate as such. However, the appeal for Burnes is what some of you think is a disadvantage.
Burnes will hit Free Agency at 30, which will be after the 2024 season. Lest you forget, Tony Gonsolin and Dustin May are due back in 2025, and the Dodgers will also be faced with what they do with Walker Buehler. Do they (1.) let him walk, (2.) give him the QO, or (3.) extend him? That will likely be choices they have to make. Then, of course, these same fans want to sign Yamamoto, Imanaga, and Ohtani. Then what do you do with all the Young Starters who are nearing the Show?
I am going to suggest that it would be felony-stupid to want to extend Burnes when you maybe have all or even some of the above pitchers. If the Dodgers sign Ohtani (and I still do not believe they will), then he will also want to pitch in 2025. Ride Burns and others to a championship in 2024, and then let Burnes walk. It didn’t work with Scherzer, but that is always what they were going to do with him.
Do you want Dylan Cease because he has an extra year of control? Cease is not half the pitcher Burnes is! OK, let’s look at them side-by-side:
Burnes is WAY better in everything but strikeouts per nine innings which is why Burnes typically throws less pitches and pitches deeper into games. Cease is a #2 or #3, while Burnes is an Ace. Dylan Cease can’t carry Burnes jock, but you want him because he has more years of control? Hell, sign me – I’ve got six years of control! The Dodgers need a proven Ace in 2024, and Burnes is it. He might be the key to winning a championship, as he is a horse. Ride him in 2024, and like MadBum, maybe his arm will fall off in 2025. Cease is not an ace – he is a middle-of-the-rotation starter. The Dodgers have those in spades:
- Bobby Miller is a #2 or #3, but he is the Dodgers’ Ace-in-Waiting. He needs another year.
- Walker Buehler may not be a #1 anymore, but he could be a #2 or #3 as well. We have to find out.
- Ryan Pepiot is morphing into a #3 or #4 starter.
- Emmet Sheehan will likely be a solid middle-of-the-rotation starter (or better), but I just traded him.
If the Dodgers trade for Burnes, this is what the rotation might look like:
- Burnes
- Buehler
- Miller
- Pepiot
- Yarbrough (you need a lefty)
I believe Emmet Sheehan will be a very good pitcher, but it will take a couple of years. However, the Dodgers are likely to sign another pitcher as well, whether that be Yamamato or Imanaga… or even both. AND THEN, you have to know that Gonsolin and May will be back in 2025. So, why in the hell would you want to extend Burnes? Stop the nonsense already! Not only will May and Gonsolin be back, but then there will be more prospects at the ready: Knack, Frasso, Stone, Ryan, et al.
Ride Burnes for a year and let him walk. I realize that other fans have the opinion that Burnes and Adames are rentals, but what if the Dodgers win a Championship on the back of Burnes? Long-term deals with pitchers are seldom fruitful. Like it or not, Adames is a huge upgrade over Rojas, and I also believe that the Dodgers can help both realize their greatest potential. Burnes could win the Cy Young and parlay that into a seven-year/$200 Million deal (not with the Dodgers). Adames could put up another .800 OPS year (he already has three). I’ll take that chance!
You have to look at the big picture: If you want to win NOW, then you have to make some hard decisions. Burnes is not a permanent addition to the Dodgers unless he wants to take a lesser deal than he might get on the open market. Corbin Burnes is simply a “BRIDGE” for the Dodgers to get to 2025 when more rookies and more veteran starting pitchers come back into the Dodger rotation. In 2024, I would like to see this rotation:
- Burnes
- Buehler
- Miller
- Pepiot
- Imanaga
I would like to have Yamamoto, but that could cost too much. However, I would love to have him. Plug him in and do six-man rotation.
- Burnes
- Buehler
- Yamamoto
- Miller
- Pepiot
- Imanaga
Have at it.
In 2025, Ohtani may be available to pitch, so here is the rotation in 2025:
- Miller
- Buehler
- Yamamoto
- Pepiot
- Imanaga
- Knack
In 2024, this is the Dodgers lineup, based upon what I have purposed:
- Ohtani DH (how about hitting him leadoff?)
- Betts RF
- Freeman 1B
- Smith C
- Muncy 3B
- Adames SS
- Busch LF
- Vargas 3B
- Heyward/DeLuca LF
If you spend big on Ohtani, you can’t pay for free agents at every spot… thus Vargas, DeLuca and Bush are expected to deliver. Call me crazy!
It’s about to get busy!
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Discussion (100)
Disagree, not disagreeable
Mark, you make a ton of sense and you have convinced me. Get Burnes and Adames BUT I would include Yellich which would lower the cost of prospects going to Milwaukee. I’m inclined to think a package including one of the youngsters, Sheehan/Grove /Knack/Stone plus Lux and Miggy and one other prospect except for Rushing. Forget about Ohtani and use the money to resign Kike, JDM and Heyward. Add a couple of non attached QO FA pitchers like Ryu, Giollito, Flaherty, Manaea et al , a few tweaks for the bench, BP and trade deadline adjustments and it’s time for Dodgerrrr baseball…..IMHO.
Sorry Bear, I have a GREAT deal of respect for you but unless AF can steal Robert in a package with Cease, I think the Milwaukee angle makes the most sense despite Adames’ K rate and the 1 year rental thing. Yellich is not the same player from a few seasons ago and not cheap BUT he’s still a solid player and would be a huge upgrade from last year’s LF production. Thanks Mark and Bear for your time and efforts that make this site possible.
Lineup:
1 Betts RF/2B
2 Freeman 1B
3 Smith C
4 JDM. DH
5 Yellich LF
6 Adames SS
7 Muncy 2B/Heyward RF
8 Vargas 3B/Taylor
9 Outman CF/Kike
Rotation:
Burnes
Miller
Ryu
Buehler
Manaea
Pepiot
One intangible that makes Mark’s scenario more likely is that Lux is from Wisconsin. Not that he has a say in it, but from Milwaukee’s point of view. If you’re doing a rebuild, a hometown shortstop with a lot years of team control and a lot of upside would make Lux attractive. I think Gavin has .290 20hr .380 OBP potential. And with the rule changed I could see him grabbing 25-30 SBs. Tough guy for the Dodgers to give up. And, unlike Mark, I think he can play SS.
If I’m Milwaukee and I am fielding offers for the last year of control of my ace, Lux would make a lot of sense as the cornerstone to that trade.
Nostalgically, I really want Lux to remain a Dodger. My son got to know him when he was with the Quakes. He’s a really cool guy. And my son has an epic Lux collection. Game used bats, cleats and his 2017 home Spring Training jersey. The first jersey he ever wore in Dodger stadium during the freeway series against the Angels. So when AF calls me asking for my input, I will tell him I’d prefer Lux not be part of that trade. For personal reasons. I’ll be waiting by my phone.
We don’t need no stinking Brewers!
1 The Brewers are rebuilding.
2 They probably would like a few multi-year controlable MLB ready players and a multi-year controlable starting pitcher to replace Burnes.
3 The Dodgers need to clear space on the 40 man roster for whoever AF gets this offseason.
4 Think about which prospects that are projected to be ready in 2024 (according to the Dodgers home page) that are never going to make the Dodgers 26 man roster and a pitcher that’s never going to make the starting rotation and which position the Dodgers have depth in the minor leagues.
5 Which 1 player do some of us really want from the Brewers. The answer is Burnes.
6 Burnes is a 1 year rental and there’s no way they should get Lux and Sheehan (he will be in the Dodgers starting rotation) for a 1 year rental.
7 I’d do Grove, Cartaya, Vivas, Ramos for Burnes. Too much, take Cartaya out. Not enough, add Bruns.
The Dodgers are not signing Ohtani. Our immediate pitching need overrides paying him 30-40 million to DH, and waiting 2 yrs to see if can still pitch after a 2nd surgery.
Trading Lux now would be selling low.
I don’t want to see Muncy in the starting lineup as anything other than a DH, which means we need a 3rd baseman who can play + defense.
I think the Dodgers will add two veteran arms.
I say no Ohtani. I just have a bad feeling about his future. No one knows when he can safely start hitting this coming season without jeopardizing his elbow or how well he will hit. I believe he’s had 2 elbow operations now (correct me if I’m wrong). How will his pitching be affected in the ’25 season? He will be commanding a ton of money and I can’t see putting it into a player with a questionable future.
Burnes has always made more sense to me than Cease beyond the fact that he has been a better pitcher than Cease. We should not be blocking young starters by acquiring Cease, signing a starter for 3 to 5 years, and fitting Buehler back into the rotation. I would be fine taking on Adames in that trade but I would not want Yelich. If I am going to expand that trade I would add another young starter like Knack or Grove, and Yeiner Fernandez to get Sal Frelich or one of the young Milwaukee outfielders who are ML ready to play center field. Ideally, LA could acquire Burnes without the inclusion of Adames but I would not let that be a deal breaker. Things should start to come into focus soon.
Great article Mark.
I also would prefer Burnes over Cease. Your comparison is informative and clearly Burnes has been the better pitcher. Burnes played at St Mary’s where Gonsolin played and was born in Bakersfield so he would likely prefer playing for the Dodgers.
I am not as bullish on Adames. He hit 217 last year with an OPS of 717. The prior year his OPS was 756 with on base % of 298.
He actually has only had one full year above 800 OPS at 818 in 2021 and also had 813 OPS in the Covid year of 2020. Adames is in his last arb year and is expected to make $12.4 million this year. For comparison, Lux is estimated to make only $1.1 million this year and had a 745 OPS in 2022.
I would keep Lux for the next 3 years at a bargain salary rather than Adames at 1 year at $12.4 million.
Ohtani will be a Dodger soon whether the participants on this site like it or not. West Coast, Weather and Winning is the formula for Ohtani to sign a contract with the Dodgers. It’s not my money so whatever ownership deems reasonable for a once in a lifetime superstar is alright with me. Ownership is smarter than all of us.He will not hamper the payroll because the Dodgers will generate millions from his presence. The Japanese fan base from the Angels will follow him right to Dodger Stadium. We don’t have an International Super Star on our roster but that will change soon and many more will follow. The Dodgers have hired an individual just for that purpose. Get ready, he’s coming.
One thing I love about you Mark is that you stick to your guns. I do not trade Lux and anyone for two rentals. Yes, I want Cease for a couple of reasons, A, he is two years younger and can still improve a lot. He was second in the Cy Young vote in 22. B. Prior is a miracle worker with mechanical problems with pitchers, and with Cease, that might be all he needs. If they can get Burnes without giving up Lux, fine. I think Lux is a better hitter than Adames, and a lot better runner with more speed. And the Dodgers are a lumbering team. They need speed. Duke not Snider, in one of your last posts you said the Dodgers should sign Snell and Chapman. Now, if you were serious, here is the problem with that. If the Dodgers in fact, are targeting Ohtani, and they do sign him, it is going to cost them two draft picks and 1 million dollars in international pool money. Now, if they sign another free agent who turned down his QO, they lose another two draft picks. So if they sign two guys who had QO’s, doesn’t matter who, they lose 1 million, and their second, third fifth and sixth picks in the June draft. Not happening. We all know how much they value the picks. They might give up two to land Ohtani, but not Snell or Chapman. And Chapman for all his great defense, is a strikeout machine like Muncy. Snell is a five inning pitcher.
Buehler’s likely gone in 2025.
Okay, after reading your comments for the past few months, I get the feeling you don’t like Lux at short, never have, probably never will. Now with the knee injury, you like him even less.
But Adames? Just another low average guy with some power, who is one year away from free agency, right? Maybe you’re right and he puts up big numbers or he has another 2023. I’d rather stick with Lux.
A trade for Burnes is fine, if they can pull it off without giving up prospects like Sheehan. The Dodgers have some pretty good prospects, certainly can offer a package to acquire a quality pitcher without giving up potential young starters, who could make big contributions this coming season.
If the Dodgers acquire Cease, I’m guessing they look at his upside moving forward. Burnes would probably be a one and done. Maybe Buehler walks too. There goes the experienced starting pitching approach.
Maybe Dustin May and Tony Gonsolin bounce back in 2025. May could be special if he stays healthy. If …
The only thing I’m really sure of right now is the Dodgers need experienced high level starters, plus Ohtani.
I’m guessing Vargas or Busch gets traded in a significant deal, the other becomes a regular for the Dodgers in 2024, infield or outfield.
Thanks for keeping this site interesting, Mark.