Here's Johnny!

If the dodgers trade to White Sox why couldn’t they get Cease Roberts JR and The third baseman what is his name from the white Sox starts with a M. For Sheehan Busch Cartaya and say Rojas. That way you get a new third baseman keep Lux at short since you all think he can play Muncy is DH resign Kiki for second base and then Roberts is in left field or center take the money you don’t spend on Ohtani and get to quality pitchers in Yomamoto and Flarethy then you wojld habe Cease Yamamoto Flarethy Buehler Millee Pepiot as starters then a third baseman and left fielder pretty much play every day like Freeman and Betts. I just forget the third baseman for the White Sox. I see this happening if Ohtani goes to the Cubs which I hear he really likes. And Muncy becomes the DH then you need a thirdbaseman and it ain’t Vargas he strikes out way to much. Sign Kiki and go get another outfielder like Heyward then you have Taylor, Roberts Jr, and Outman as your outfielders amd Lux at short Taylor and Hernandez at second base guess with white Sox you get more platoon options then with the brewers trade. Yelich plays LF and Addames SS unless he can play third base and you keep Rojas at shortstop but to get Addames I think you have to trade Lux to Brewers.

So Dodgers maven Tim Rogers has pointed out the Brewers basically have a vacancy at 1B. Rowdy Tellez, who belongs on the all-name team, is a free agent.

This is another reason to think Busch could be part of a Brewers deal. Or if not Busch, maybe Vargas.

Mark’s blockbuster for Burnes, Yelich and Adames seems a little bit more plausible…. but I still think Burnes-Adames makes more sense.

Instead of committing more than $100 million to Yelich, that money can pay for an SP, and the budget for LF could stay low with DeLuca, Pages or maybe Vargas out there.

Old friend Kenta Maeda signs with the Tigers. Two years, 24 million.

Things are starting to move, Bear. You may not have to wait for the Winter Meetings.

Former Dodger Rangle Ravelo signed by the Mariners to a minor league deal.

We will all know very soon. Can’t wait for the winter meetings.

I would be happy if the Giants sign Bellinger and Snell to big contracts. Both players will not come close to delivering the value. I think Snell will give you a year or two, and Bellinger is no longer a 30+ HR guy with how he revamped his swing.

Good pitching beats good hitting in the playoffs.

In the past 20 years!

Of all the draft picks and all the minor league players to have played for the Dodgers, only one has had a 10+ year all star career with the Dodgers. Kersh!

Good, well thought out post, Duke.

Just to belabor a point….

Ohtani is a great player–and on a path to arguably being regarded as the greatest ever.

He is the biggest star in the game–an international star–and please understand that the Dodgers are in the ENTERTAINMENT business more than the baseball business. It’s a wealthy large-market franchise that aims for a global reach, so Ohtani is a great fit. As the adage goes, you have to spend money to make money, and Ohtani is THE marquee player of our times.

Some people here seem to think that AF and the Dodger brass will instead think small. Or that they should think small.

They ask: Why not spread $500 million around 5 talented players instead of investing in one?

A reasonable question.

The answer is that those five theoretical players don’t have the star power of Ohtani. We could imagine 5 quality free agents within a $500 million cost–say Snell, Chapman, Imanaga, Giolito and Rhys Hoskins.

Would those five, collectively, generate that same excitement as Ohtani? Nope. Could they help win a few more games? Sure. Win a World Series? Maybe, maybe not.

ut are they really that much better than the players the Dodgers would otherwise put around Ohtani, Mookie and Freddie? Ohtani would be walking into a winning tradition with quality teammates and a deep, productive farm system.

So the Dodgers will be making a serious and sincere effort to land Ohtani. He’ll get megabucks regardless of where he signs. But the Dodgers have a lot of what he is seeking.

Mark has suggested that maybe Ohtani should bat leadoff. Certainly plausible. He has a great OBP and great speed.

But just for fun, let’s look ahead and imagine that the Dodgers two top draft picks thriving and making the roster in ’26 or ’27. How about this lineup:

Kendall George CF

Ohtani DH

Mookie 2B

Freddie 1B

Smith/Rushing C

Outman RF

Busch/Vargas LF

Gelof 3B

Lux SS

Excuse me. 13.3%. 73.15 mil!

California State tax on 550 mil contract. 67.5 mil. I’d be more worried about Texas than the Giants!

I just read that Forbes has the Dodgers if sold today valued at six billion dollars. Not a bad investment when they were bought tn 2012 for two billion from Frank McCourt. With Ohtani and the International market he brings to the table, this figure will rise substantially. Ownership will be ringing the cash register daily once he is officially signed.

exciting times! i have never been totally in on signing ohthani, but the giants are making a big push to sign him! that could be bad news for LA especially if they could sign Snell also. they have money and are ready to spend it. now him signing with the giants doesn’t mean they automatically win the division, but it does give them a chance to be very dangerous! even if they sign him there are still a lot of holes in that lineup. so if the dodgers don’t get ohtani they could still trade for burnes (or cease) and it appears toronto is open to trading bichette. sign one of the japanese pitchers (probably the lefty) resign heyward, i would certainly kick the tires on bichette! and if lux isn’t included in a deal for Bo, put him back at second base. mookie back in right, outman in center, and either vargas or busch in left. dump barnes and use Hunter as the backup. i like that lineup. miller, cease,(burnes), buehler, pepiot,imanaga! lets roll! oh i forgot dh. JD or JT, although i would rather have Martinez, because i don’t believe JT wants back in LA., but you never know!

Sheehan has just 201 IP in 4 minor leagues and part of a major league season, so I would expect him to start the season at OKC if the Dodgers add Free Agent Pitchers or trade for any.

More rumors:

https://www.mlb.com/news/mlb-rumors-trades-and-signings?t=trades-and-transactions

If the Dodgers do sign Yamamoto and/or Imagana and if Buehler does return, it makes a lot of sense to go with a six-man rotation. If they sign Cease, then they have seven starters:

1. Cease

2. Yamamoto

3. Buehler

4. Miller

5. Pepiot

6. Imanaga

7. Sheehan (he’s the least ready)

If they sign Ohtani, they will likely be the extent of their foray into free agency… maybe Heyward or Hoskins, but that will also leave Muncy at 3B.

Unless they trade Sheehan or Pepiot, there is no room (or money) for Giolito.

I love Lux’s bat, but I still do not see him as a SS for what Bruce Willis used to say:

In case, you don’t understand, it’s the YIPS!

Everything I say here is simply my opinion. I do not see Adames as a serious upgrade over Lux. I think Yelich’s bat is ok, and he even hit’s lefties some. But his defense is not as good as it used to be. I also believe the fan base wants a huge signing. I don’t consider a trade that sends young players away for a couple of rentals is prudent. That is why I believe they are targeting Ohtani. It makes good baseball sense and good business sense. His being in a Dodger uniform is going to generate a lot of money. No matter what his AAV turns out to be. The team is going to make boatloads of cash. He also improves the offense. Now, if he can return to pitching in 25, that is a bonus.

Sign Giolito, Imanaga gets posted on Monday. I would go after him over Yamamoto who seemingly wants to play on a team that has other Japanese players. Which at this point, the Dodgers do not have. Freeman is pushing for them to bring back Jason Heyward. I have no doubt there will be some trades involving prospects. But I would much rather trade for Cease than Burnes. Two years of control, 2 years younger, and only a year removed from finishing second in the Cy Young vote. No to Snell and any other player besides Ohtani who has a QO attached and costs draft picks. Congrats to Michigan for beating Ohio State for the third straight year. One to the Championship against Iowa.

I say again, and I will keep saying it, I am not trading Sheehan and Lux for a couple of rentals. I know all about the Scherzer-Turner trade. DC still has all four of those players. Additionally, I am not taking on Yelich’s five-year 130-million-dollar anchor of a salary. The guy is 32. His skills have diminished. Adames and Burnes for one year? No thanks, then you have to go through the whole thing again next year. Unless they signed extensions before the trade, I do not want the Dodgers wasting prospect capital on those two guys and I damn sure do not want an aging outfielder who is past his prime. Ohtani is the Dodgers main target offensively. Then pitchers. They do not need Adames. They do not need Yelich. And they damn sure don’t need Chapman and his huge number of strikeouts.

I don’t see the point of getting Adames. The Dodgers have enough players that don’t hit. Two of them can play SS. Rojas and Taylor. They have two more who can hit. Betts and Lux. Lux was hitting .290 before his neck injury. I’m sure his fielding couldn’t be worse than Turner or Seager.

Yellich would be a huge overpay with his salary but would provide some value because he can hit.

I would keep Lux, Vargas, Busch, DeLuca and Sheehan.

I have been on the Yelich bandwagon, but few fans like that deal.

That has never deturred me.

Go Florida!

–A Ducks fan

Why not get Addames Burnes and Yelich from brewers for Lux Busch and Sheehan. It fills to positions the dodgers need in shortstop and leftfield. Then they get the ace pitcher . They will still need a second baseman and DH or thirdbaseman. So if they sign Ohtani he is the DH then Muncy is at third base that leaves second base you still have Vargas or you can go get a veteran second baseman like Whit Merrifield. Okay now look at my lineup.

2024

Ohtani DH

Betts rf

Freeman 1b

Smith c

Yelich LF

Muncy 3b

Addames ss

Outman cf

Merrifield 2b

Starting pitching

1. Burnes

2. Miller

3. Yamamoto

4. Buehler

5. Pepiot

6 Yarbough

Go with that and go get a championship.

Mark, you make a ton of sense and you have convinced me. Get Burnes and Adames BUT I would include Yellich which would lower the cost of prospects going to Milwaukee. I’m inclined to think a package including one of the youngsters, Sheehan/Grove /Knack/Stone plus Lux and Miggy and one other prospect except for Rushing. Forget about Ohtani and use the money to resign Kike, JDM and Heyward. Add a couple of non attached QO FA pitchers like Ryu, Giollito, Flaherty, Manaea et al , a few tweaks for the bench, BP and trade deadline adjustments and it’s time for Dodgerrrr baseball…..IMHO.

Sorry Bear, I have a GREAT deal of respect for you but unless AF can steal Robert in a package with Cease, I think the Milwaukee angle makes the most sense despite Adames’ K rate and the 1 year rental thing. Yellich is not the same player from a few seasons ago and not cheap BUT he’s still a solid player and would be a huge upgrade from last year’s LF production. Thanks Mark and Bear for your time and efforts that make this site possible.

Lineup:

1 Betts RF/2B

2 Freeman 1B

3 Smith C

4 JDM. DH

5 Yellich LF

6 Adames SS

7 Muncy 2B/Heyward RF

8 Vargas 3B/Taylor

9 Outman CF/Kike

Rotation:

Burnes

Miller

Ryu

Buehler

Manaea

Pepiot

One intangible that makes Mark’s scenario more likely is that Lux is from Wisconsin. Not that he has a say in it, but from Milwaukee’s point of view. If you’re doing a rebuild, a hometown shortstop with a lot years of team control and a lot of upside would make Lux attractive. I think Gavin has .290 20hr .380 OBP potential. And with the rule changed I could see him grabbing 25-30 SBs. Tough guy for the Dodgers to give up. And, unlike Mark, I think he can play SS.

If I’m Milwaukee and I am fielding offers for the last year of control of my ace, Lux would make a lot of sense as the cornerstone to that trade.

Nostalgically, I really want Lux to remain a Dodger. My son got to know him when he was with the Quakes. He’s a really cool guy. And my son has an epic Lux collection. Game used bats, cleats and his 2017 home Spring Training jersey. The first jersey he ever wore in Dodger stadium during the freeway series against the Angels. So when AF calls me asking for my input, I will tell him I’d prefer Lux not be part of that trade. For personal reasons. I’ll be waiting by my phone.

We don’t need no stinking Brewers!

1 The Brewers are rebuilding.

2 They probably would like a few multi-year controlable MLB ready players and a multi-year controlable starting pitcher to replace Burnes.

3 The Dodgers need to clear space on the 40 man roster for whoever AF gets this offseason.

4 Think about which prospects that are projected to be ready in 2024 (according to the Dodgers home page) that are never going to make the Dodgers 26 man roster and a pitcher that’s never going to make the starting rotation and which position the Dodgers have depth in the minor leagues.

5 Which 1 player do some of us really want from the Brewers. The answer is Burnes.

6 Burnes is a 1 year rental and there’s no way they should get Lux and Sheehan (he will be in the Dodgers starting rotation) for a 1 year rental.

7 I’d do Grove, Cartaya, Vivas, Ramos for Burnes. Too much, take Cartaya out. Not enough, add Bruns.

The Dodgers are not signing Ohtani. Our immediate pitching need overrides paying him 30-40 million to DH, and waiting 2 yrs to see if can still pitch after a 2nd surgery.

Trading Lux now would be selling low.

I don’t want to see Muncy in the starting lineup as anything other than a DH, which means we need a 3rd baseman who can play + defense.

I think the Dodgers will add two veteran arms.

I say no Ohtani. I just have a bad feeling about his future. No one knows when he can safely start hitting this coming season without jeopardizing his elbow or how well he will hit. I believe he’s had 2 elbow operations now (correct me if I’m wrong). How will his pitching be affected in the ’25 season? He will be commanding a ton of money and I can’t see putting it into a player with a questionable future.

Burnes has always made more sense to me than Cease beyond the fact that he has been a better pitcher than Cease. We should not be blocking young starters by acquiring Cease, signing a starter for 3 to 5 years, and fitting Buehler back into the rotation. I would be fine taking on Adames in that trade but I would not want Yelich. If I am going to expand that trade I would add another young starter like Knack or Grove, and Yeiner Fernandez to get Sal Frelich or one of the young Milwaukee outfielders who are ML ready to play center field. Ideally, LA could acquire Burnes without the inclusion of Adames but I would not let that be a deal breaker. Things should start to come into focus soon.

Great article Mark.

I also would prefer Burnes over Cease. Your comparison is informative and clearly Burnes has been the better pitcher. Burnes played at St Mary’s where Gonsolin played and was born in Bakersfield so he would likely prefer playing for the Dodgers.

I am not as bullish on Adames. He hit 217 last year with an OPS of 717. The prior year his OPS was 756 with on base % of 298.

He actually has only had one full year above 800 OPS at 818 in 2021 and also had 813 OPS in the Covid year of 2020. Adames is in his last arb year and is expected to make $12.4 million this year. For comparison, Lux is estimated to make only $1.1 million this year and had a 745 OPS in 2022.

I would keep Lux for the next 3 years at a bargain salary rather than Adames at 1 year at $12.4 million.

Ohtani will be a Dodger soon whether the participants on this site like it or not. West Coast, Weather and Winning is the formula for Ohtani to sign a contract with the Dodgers. It’s not my money so whatever ownership deems reasonable for a once in a lifetime superstar is alright with me. Ownership is smarter than all of us.He will not hamper the payroll because the Dodgers will generate millions from his presence. The Japanese fan base from the Angels will follow him right to Dodger Stadium. We don’t have an International Super Star on our roster but that will change soon and many more will follow. The Dodgers have hired an individual just for that purpose. Get ready, he’s coming.

One thing I love about you Mark is that you stick to your guns. I do not trade Lux and anyone for two rentals. Yes, I want Cease for a couple of reasons, A, he is two years younger and can still improve a lot. He was second in the Cy Young vote in 22. B. Prior is a miracle worker with mechanical problems with pitchers, and with Cease, that might be all he needs. If they can get Burnes without giving up Lux, fine. I think Lux is a better hitter than Adames, and a lot better runner with more speed. And the Dodgers are a lumbering team. They need speed. Duke not Snider, in one of your last posts you said the Dodgers should sign Snell and Chapman. Now, if you were serious, here is the problem with that. If the Dodgers in fact, are targeting Ohtani, and they do sign him, it is going to cost them two draft picks and 1 million dollars in international pool money. Now, if they sign another free agent who turned down his QO, they lose another two draft picks. So if they sign two guys who had QO’s, doesn’t matter who, they lose 1 million, and their second, third fifth and sixth picks in the June draft. Not happening. We all know how much they value the picks. They might give up two to land Ohtani, but not Snell or Chapman. And Chapman for all his great defense, is a strikeout machine like Muncy. Snell is a five inning pitcher.

Buehler’s likely gone in 2025.

Okay, after reading your comments for the past few months, I get the feeling you don’t like Lux at short, never have, probably never will. Now with the knee injury, you like him even less.

But Adames? Just another low average guy with some power, who is one year away from free agency, right? Maybe you’re right and he puts up big numbers or he has another 2023. I’d rather stick with Lux.

A trade for Burnes is fine, if they can pull it off without giving up prospects like Sheehan. The Dodgers have some pretty good prospects, certainly can offer a package to acquire a quality pitcher without giving up potential young starters, who could make big contributions this coming season.

If the Dodgers acquire Cease, I’m guessing they look at his upside moving forward. Burnes would probably be a one and done. Maybe Buehler walks too. There goes the experienced starting pitching approach.

Maybe Dustin May and Tony Gonsolin bounce back in 2025. May could be special if he stays healthy. If …

The only thing I’m really sure of right now is the Dodgers need experienced high level starters, plus Ohtani.

I’m guessing Vargas or Busch gets traded in a significant deal, the other becomes a regular for the Dodgers in 2024, infield or outfield.

Thanks for keeping this site interesting, Mark.