There is probably no other sport that is harder to understand and predict than baseball. Baseball is generally harder to evaluate talent-wise than football and basketball, for several structural, statistical, and developmental reasons. A couple of years ago, I extolled the belief that Miguel Vargas would be a very good player for the Dodgers, not a “superstar” but just an outstanding player. I also said that James Outman was a 4th or 5th outfielder. Well, James Outman went on to win the Rookie of the Year, while Miguel Vargas struggled mightily and was traded to the White Sox.
Predictably, the Sophmoric Faction of Dodger Fandom pounded their chests and called me an idiot! My response was that they were morons and that progress was not linear! This week, James “Mr. Strikeout” Outman was again (AGAIN) sent back to AAA while Miguel Vargas was named AL Player of the Week! Now, this is not the end… because progress is not linear, but I think Miguel Vargas has a better chance of being an outstanding player than James Outman does of ever being a major league 4th or 5th outfielder! It’s not over (development never is) but the fat lady is humming… Fans have left and been kicked off this site for choosing to die on the James Outman Fan Pole. Well… that and being totally slanderous morons.
They fail to understand how prospects in baseball are challenging to predict and that progress is not linear. If you are interested, here’s why baseball players are so hard to evaluate.
Why Baseball Is Harder to Evaluate:
Longer Development Curve
- A 1st-round MLB pick might not debut in the majors for 3–5 years—if ever.
- Physical and mental maturation vary widely, and players develop unevenly.
- In contrast, top football and basketball players often contribute right away (especially in the NFL and NBA).
Higher Variance in Performance
- Baseball has more randomness and statistical “noise”—a hitter can go 0-for-4 with hard-hit balls or get 3 hits with bloopers.
- Small sample sizes are misleading, and luck (BABIP, park factors, etc.) plays a bigger role.
- Consistency over hundreds of at-bats or innings is harder to spot early.
Tool-Based vs. Role-Based Evaluation
- Scouts assess raw “tools” (hit, power, run, field, arm) but can’t always predict how they’ll translate into production.
- Football and basketball scouting focuses more on roles and systems—e.g., “Can this corner cover man-to-man?” or “Can this point guard create off the dribble?”
Different Levels of Competition
- Baseball talent comes from high school, college, international leagues, and independent leagues—all with huge variation in competition quality.
- Football and basketball pipelines are more centralized (NCAA, AAU, etc.).
Stats Are Less Predictive at Amateur Levels
- A .450 high school batting average doesn’t mean much—it could be against weak pitching.
- Even in college, aluminum bats distort performance.
- In contrast, basketball stats (like shooting percentages or assist-to-turnover ratios) and football stats (like yards per attempt) often translate more cleanly.
Pitching vs. Hitting Complexity
- Pitchers and hitters require separate evaluation models. Each involves biomechanics, mental makeup, durability, and adaptation.
- Injuries, especially Tommy John or shoulder issues, add more volatility to pitching prospects.
Draft Outcome Evidence
- MLB Draft: Very high bust rate; only a fraction of 1st-rounders become stars.
- NBA/NFL Drafts: Higher early-round hit rates; stars often emerge quickly.
Summary
Baseball is clearly harder to evaluate because:
- The draft and farm systems delay feedback on scouting accuracy
- The development path is longer and less linear.
- There’s more statistical noise and contextual variability.
- The skills are more segmented and harder to project.
So, next time you want to mock someone else’s predictions and thump your chest, realize that progress is not linear! Take a deep breath and realize that baseball development takes time. I am frequently wrong, but I get my share of things right!
Dodger News & Notes
- It’s good to see Mookie get a couple of thumps. He needs to get his average back to over .300.
- Last night, other than Mookie, the team could not hit and they could not pitch… but otherwise they were fine. Some of it can be attributed to all the changes in personnel. This, too, shall pass! I am not worried about anything at this juncture.
- So far, the Dodgers are still #1 in Power Rankings.
- This is just a speed bump in the road. Don’t panic! More bad things will happen… more good things will happen. Worry about what you can control.
- Mike Sirota should be in the Top 100 MLB prospects soon.
Discussion (22)
Disagree, not disagreeable
I just watch this team and don’t follow any others. Occasionally I look at the standings. So over past 10 games of us struggling, the rest of division not gaining any ground. I guess everyone has issues!!
Gritty win.
Yama gonna win the CY.
What a thoroughly enjoyable game.
Yamamoto deserved the win but like I said yesterday, the Pitching just isn’t there behind him, and will not be there any time soon.
Casparius has been excellent but not sure what’s happened to Scott, his velocity is there but he’s become vulnerable to the long ball. Asking him to pitch 2 innings tells you all you need to know about Doc’s belief some of his BP options. He did press the right buttons in the 8th when Vesia did his high wire act, and Caspa got the last out.
A much needed win.
5th: Conforto grounded out to second.
1. At this point I would be in favor of sitting Max Muncy against left handers (.081 BA) and playing Kike Hernandez.
2. Conforto was a hedge against Andy Pages struggling against right handed pitching. Fortunately, Pages seems to be establishing himself as a starting ML outfielder. I think Conforto gets another 50 to 75 regular at bats before the Dodgers make a change.
3. I like the Dodgers getting younger and better by releasing Taylor and Barnes. Emotional, tough decisions but those were the correct baseball decisions, in my opinion. Is Freeland for Rojas on the horizon? Seems like that may be farther away, barring an injury.
4. The Dodgers are loaded with really good, young outfielders in A ball – Sirota, DePaula, Hope, Quintero.
Watching the Dodgers hit 95+ exit velocity with nothing to show for it the last two nights is frustrating. Nelson and Pfaadt must be living right.
So today’s posted lineup features neither Teo or Edman.
I haven’t seen an explanation yet, but it raises the question: Did the “slow-playing” Dodgers rush them back a little too soon? Should they have had another few days of recovery?
The good news is that Kim is back at 2B, not CF. You may recall that he lost a routine fly in the twilight and Roberts blamed it on his “inexperience” in failing to summon Teo for help. (Jack Dreyer and his ERA… deserved better.) Also, Roberts had Kim in CF instead of Edman, because he thought 2B would be a bit easier for Edman’s healing injury.
Perhaps not easy enough, because Edman isn’t today.
Anyway, with both Edman and Teo on the bench, the lineup will now have Kike in CF, with Conforto in LF and Pages in RF. So Conforto gets another chance to prove he deserves to be a starter and shouldn’t be a $17 million guy at the end of the bench.
I bet I’m not the only fan who would prefer to see Rushing get a start in LF….
In other news, the annual rumor that the Dodgers could trade for the Rockies’ 3B Ryan McMahon is back. He’s a better defender than Max, but Max has had the far more potent bat.
05/20/25 Los Angeles Dodgers released C Austin Barnes.
10:10 PM ET
Diamondbacks (26-22)
Dodgers (29-19)
SP Ryne Nelson R
1-1 5.13 ERA
SP Y. Yamamoto R
5-3 2.12 ERA
Confirmed Lineup
DH S. Ohtani L
SS Mookie Betts R
1B F. Freeman L
C Will Smith R
3B Max Muncy L
RF Andy Pages R
LF M. Conforto L
CF E. Hernandez R
2B Hyeseong Kim L
76° Wind 10 mph Out
Edman NOT starting
Facts are facts as far as the batting average and HRS. But it is still just my opinion, which i thought is what we do on an open forum. But i do appreciate snarky comments
Conforto has averaged 14 HRS a season over the last 4 years. We all want to see him hit and help the team( we are all Dodger fans). But he hasnt ,with Teo and Tommy back, there is no way conforto should be stealing atbats from any of our outfielders or Kim.
For the record, I have no opinion on Conforto.
If he hits, they will keep him.
If he doesn’t, then … bye, bye!
All I know is that it would be nice to have another LH Power hitter against RHP… which is the majority of what the Dodgers see.
Conforto hit 30 HR once in his career. In 2019.
A. Outman did not win the ROY, he placed 3rd. B. Blake Treinen was playing catch yesterday at Dodger Stadium. C. Vargas might have won player of the week, but his defense is still atrocious. He has as many errors at third as Max does 6. D. Another supposed Dodger trade target per Bob Nightengale, Ryan McMahon, has a lower BA than Muncy, and even though he has 3 more homers, he only has 11 driven in. E. Like the man says, progress is not linear, and you cannot turn a bad start around overnight.
From AI:
Michael Conforto is generally considered an average to slightly below-average defensive left fielder. While he has had periods of strong defensive performance earlier in his career, recent metrics indicate a decline in his defensive effectiveness.
Defensive Metrics Overview
Outs Above Average (OAA): In the 2025 season, Conforto recorded a -2 OAA in left field, suggesting he made two fewer plays than an average fielder at his position.
Defensive Runs Saved (DRS): Specific DRS data for 2025 is not readily available, but earlier in his career, Conforto had seasons with positive DRS, indicating above-average defense.
Ultimate Zone Rating (UZR): Detailed UZR figures for 2025 are not specified, but past seasons have shown variability in this metric for Conforto.
Physical Considerations
Conforto’s defensive abilities have been impacted by injuries, including a significant shoulder surgery in 2022. These health issues have affected his arm strength and range, contributing to the decline in his defensive metrics.
Summary
While Michael Conforto was once regarded as a competent defensive outfielder, recent seasons have seen a downturn in his defensive performance. Factors such as injuries and reduced range have played a role in this decline. As of the 2025 season, he is best characterized as an average to slightly below-average defender in left field.
I don’t care about Vargas any more. Or Outman really – he can play CF but doesn’t make enough regular contact to play often. He’s a candidate for a “change of scenery”.
Conforto has not been a good MLB player since 2020. He is a horrible defensive LF. He can’t play anywhere else. In his last season before his injury in 2021 he hit .232/.344/.384/.729. With the Giants he hit .239/.334/.384 and .237/.309/.450/.759. At this point in his career is is a .230 hitter who will hit 15-20 HR and play crappy LF. I don’t see the point.
Pages is the top defensive OF in the NL using DRS as the metric, but he’s a much better RF than CF. Hernandez is a much better hitter than Conforto and belongs in LF. An OF of Teo, Edman, and Pages is better defensively than Conforto, Pages and Teo. And it improves the offense too. Kike and Kim can platoon at 2B which is Kim’s best position.
Monday results
ACL Dodgers 10, ACL Mariners 9
Tuesday schedule
3:05 p.m. PT: Great Lakes (TBA) at West Michigan (Rayner Castillo)
5 p.m.: Tulsa (Jared Karros) vs. Springfield (Pete Hansen)
5:05 p.m.: Oklahoma City (Justin Jarvis) vs. Sacramento (Trevor McDonald)
7:05 p.m.: Rancho Cucamonga (Jholbran Herder) at Stockton (Donny Troconis)
For more detailed recaps,stats,schedules, standings and box scores for Dodger minor league teams go to the top of this page and cIick on MINOR LEAGUE AFFLIATES.
So ‘playing the long game’ is a great plan. Right now we are in first place in the toughest division. If we have a nice lead 1 month from now, that would be great. If not then the necessary moves will be made. Will all injured pitchers be ready for October, and no new injuries??? Will be fun to watch
From LLBTR.com:
The 32-year-old Conforto, signed to a one-year deal worth $17MM this offseason, has struggled immensely thus far but still seems like he’ll get the lion’s share of playing time for now. Both that contract and some positive traits that run counter to his bleak .168/.304/.273 slash through 171 plate appearances should net him a bit more leash. Conforto is walking at a huge 13.5% clip, and he’s averaging 91 mph off the bat while putting 47% of his batted balls in play at 95 mph or greater. He’s not expanding the zone all that often, and his contact rate within the zone is nearly 86%.
At some point, the results will need to be there for him to continue getting chances, but it’s understandable right now if the Dodgers are convinced better days are ahead. Conforto mashed at a .273/.329/.529 pace in a near identical playing time sample of 173 plate appearances following the 2024 trade deadline, which helped him secure that contract in the first place.
Translation: He has been generally unlucky! It will change…
With a core SP line-up of Yamamoto, Glass, Snell, and Roki it appeared the Dodgers could slow-play some of these guys while also weaving in Kershaw, Gonzo, Miller, May, et al.
Injuries have changed all that. We now need Kershaw, Gonzo and May to be our stoppers while young/rookie arms like Knack, Wrobleski and others fill the void.
This next stretch of games will be a good test for the team. Our SP must stop giving up early leads and go deeper, our BP must hold leads better, and our offense must show they can hit tougher pitching –i.e., not the Marlins, Rockies, Angels, etc.
We may end up in 3rd place (or not I hope), but at least we’ll know where we stand.
The Dodgers are playing the “long game” with these injuries.
They want to be at full power in September and October.
Snell is a 2nd half guy, always has been.
Be Patient….
Watching the pitching the last couple years is the exact reason why i wanted the Dodgers to sign Burnes instead of Snell. I would have actually liked to have seen them resign Flaherty . The Dodgers need a horse or 2. Guys that can make their 30 starts every year. I was never in favor of them signing (trading for) Glasnow or Snell. While both can be lights out at times, neither has ever proven the can stay healthy.