Andrew Friedman and the LAD Top 30 Prospects Part 2
It is interesting to note how the “kids” have come up to produce this year. I think that it is a combination of player ability, and timing the development. But what happens when that development stalls, or in some cases goes entirely backwards (Yadi Alvarez and Jeren Kendall). Trading Niko Hulsizer was a good trade. Kolarek is not the high leverage reliever the Dodgers needed, but the chances of him
It is interesting to note how the “kids” have come up to produce this year. I think that it is a combination of player ability, and timing the development. But what happens when that development stalls, or in some cases goes entirely backwards (Yadi Alvarez and Jeren Kendall). Trading Niko Hulsizer was a good trade. Kolarek is not the high leverage reliever the Dodgers needed, but the chances of him helping this year over Niko are astronomical. Could AF had done more to acquire some non-closer but good high leverage relievers? I think it all depends as to how the other teams value the Dodgers non elite prospects.
First let’s remind everyone the Top 30 after 2016:
1 Cody Bellinger Starting OF on current LAD (and a leading MVP candidate)
2 Alex Verdugo Starting OF on current LAD
3 Willie Calhoun Rangers 25 man (Yu Darvish trade)
4 Yadier Alvarez Who Knows?!?!
5 Yusniel Diaz O’s – AA (Manny Machado trade – 2018)
6 Walker Buehler Top 3 LAD rotation
7 Jordan Sheffield Tulsa Drillers roster
8 Gavin Lux OKC Dodgers roster
9 Austin Barnes Back at AAA after 2 years on 25 man
10 Will Smith LAD 25-man roster
11 Omar Estevez Tulsa Drillers roster
12 Starling Heredia RC Quake roster
13 Brock Stewart Toronto – July 2019
14 Josh Sborz OKC Dodgers
15 Imani Abdullah Out of Baseball
16 Chase De Jong Just released by Twins – (To Seattle for Drew Jackson/Aneurys Zabala)
17 Brendon Davis Rangers – AA (Yu Darvish trade – 2017)
18 Jacob Rhame Mets – AAA (PTBNL in Granderson trade)
19 Jacob Scavuzzo ChiSox AAA (After being released by Padres)
20 Ronny Brito Toronto – (Russell Martin trade)
21 Johan Mieses Cardinals AA (Traded for Breyvic Valera)
22 Kyle Farmer Reds 25-man roster
23 Keibert Ruiz OKC Dodgers roster
24 Edwin Rios OKC Dodgers roster
25 Mitch Hansen Sadly out of baseball
26 Andrew Toles Unknown status
27 Mitchell White OKC Dodgers roster
28 Trevor Oaks KC – (Scott Alexander trade)
29 Dustin May LAD 25-man roster
30 DJ Peters OKC Dodgers roster
In 2017, there were 13 new additions to the Top 30, which included:
Jeren Kendall RC Quakes roster (2017 Draftee) 4
Dennis Santana OKC Dodgers roster (Prior Year IFL) 12
Drew Jackson OKC Dodgers roster (Trade) 17
James Marinan Reds (Dylan Floro and Zach Neal trade) (2017 Draftee) 19
Caleb Ferguson Unappreciated (2014 Draftee) 20
Morgan Cooper Still in organization but has not pitched (2017 Draftee) 22
Carlos Rincon Tulsa Drillers roster (Prior Year IFL) 23
Connor Wong Tulsa Drillers roster (2017 Draftee) 25
Cristian Santana Tulsa Drillers roster (Prior Year IFL) 26
Luke Raley Twins (Brian Dozier trade) (2016 Draftee) 27
Errol Robinson OKC Dodgers roster (2016 Draftee) 28
Matt Beaty LAD 25-man roster (2015 Draftee) 29
Jake Peter OKC Dodgers roster (Trade) 30
Thirteen players dropped off the 2016 Top 30. Four graduated to the 25-man roster; Cody Bellinger, Austin Barnes, Brock Stewart, and Andrew Toles. Five were traded after the 2016 list was published; Willie Calhoun, Chase De Jong, Brendon Davis, Jacob Rhame, and Trevor Oaks. Four players were dropped; Josh Sborz, Jacob Scavuzzo, Johann Mieses, and Mitchell Hansen.
Of the 13 that were added, 4 were 2017 draftees, 2 were acquired via trade, and 7 were prior year draftees or international free agents and played themselves onto the Top 30. Added to the Top 10 were Jeren Kendall at#4, Keibert Ruiz at #6, and Mitchell White at #7.
In 2018, there were 12 new additions to the Top 30, which included:
Jeter Downs RC Quakes roster (Trade) 7
Diego Cartaya AZL Roster (2018 IFL) 12
Michael Grove RC Quakes roster (2018 Draftee) 13
Tony Gonsolin OKC Dodgers roster (2016 Draftee) 15
Josiah Gray Tulsa Drillers roster (Trade) 16
Edwin Uceta Tulsa Drillers roster (2016 IFL) 17
Braydon Fisher IL (2018 Draftee) 19
John Rooney RC Quakes roster (2018 Draftee) 20
Marshall Kasowski Tulsa Drillers roster (2017 Draftee) 23
Gerardo Carrillo RC Quakes roster (2016 IFL) 28
Robinson Ortiz Great Lakes Loons roster (2017 IFL) 29
Josh Sborz OKC Dodgers Roster (2015 Draftee) 25
Twelve players were dropped from the 2017 Top 30 prospect list. Three graduated to the 25-man roster; Walker Buehler, Kyle Farmer, and Caleb Ferguson. Four players were traded after the 2017 list was published; Yusniel Diaz, Ronny Brito, James Marinan, and Luke Raley. Five players were dropped; Imani Abdullah (retired), Drew Jackson, Carlos Rincon, Morgan Cooper, and Jake Peter.
Of the twelve that were added, two were added from trades; Jeter Downs and Josiah Gray. One was a 2018 IFL (Diego Cartaya). Three were 2018 draftees; Michael Grove, John Rooney, and Braydon Fisher. Six were from prior year drafts or IFL’s; Tony Gonsolin, Edwin Uceta, Marshall Kasowski, Gerardo Carrillo, Robinson Ortiz, and Josh Sborz returned after being off the prior year.
Of the 2017 Top 10, Walker Buehler graduated, Yusniel Diaz was traded, and Yadier Alvarez and Jordan Sheffield were dropped from Top 10 but stayed in Top 30. 10 Added to the Top 10 were Dustin May (#3), Dennis Santana (#6), Jeter Downs (#7), and DJ Peters (#9).
Nine players were dropped from the 2018 Top 30 list. Two were graduated to the 25-man roster; Alex Verdugo and Matt Beaty. Seven were dropped to make room for new players; Yadier Alvarez, Starling Heredia, Josh Sborz, Jeren Kendall, Errol Robinson, Braydon Fisher, and John Rooney.
Of the nine that were added, four were 2019 draftees; Kody Hoese, Michael Busch, Jimmy Lewis, and Ryan Pepiot. One was a 2019 IFL, Luis Rodriguez. Four were signed or drafted prior to 2019 and played themselves onto the prospect list; Jacob Amaya (2017), Miguel Vargas (2017), Devin Mann (2018), and Andre Jackson (2017).
Four 2018 Top 10 changed. One graduated to LAD 25-man roster (Alex Verdugo). Three others dropped from the top 10; Dennis Santana from #6 to #11, DJ Peters from #9 to #13, and Jeren Kendall from #10 out of Top 30. Josiah Gray moved up to #5, Tony Gonsolin moved up to #6, Kody Hoese is new and added to #8, and Michael Busch is new and added to #9.
That is a lot of movement in the Top 30 from year to year. But for the most part the prior year’s top 10 continue to be Top 10 or on a ML roster. Two big misses from early on were Yadi Alvarez and Jeren Kendall. This year, two current year draftees were placed in the Top 10 in their first year. Of the Top 6, three are currently on the 25-man roster; Dustin May, Will Smith, and Tony Gonsolin; 1 is knocking on the door, Gavin Lux; and two others are about as untouchable as there are; Keibert Ruiz and Josiah Gray. Jeter Downs is close.
I have no objection to AF looking at the deep talent in the top 10 and holding on to them. But at what point do the top prospects become Zach Lee, Brock Stewart, Yadi Alvarez, and Jeren Kendall. Players like Mitchell White/Dennis Santana/Michael Grove/Omar Estevez will not get elite players, but the Dodgers have elite players. But could any of them have got Aaron Bummer or Alex Colome’ or Jose Leclerc. We will never know. But unless some of those guys are moved in trades, they could end up like Brock Stewart and DFA. The trade value of Yadi Alvarez and Jeren Kendall is negative. How long before others get there. There is a problem with having too many quality players if they become blocked. With Seager and Lux penciled to be the SS/2B for the next decade, what happens to Omar Estevez, Jacob Amaya, Devin Mann. Do the Dodgers need all three? With Smith, Ruiz, Cartaya, and Wong all catchers in the top 30, how many are needed. Especially with others who are qualified to be backups along the way. How many pitchers are needed? All who have read me from the last couple of years know that Caleb Ferguson is a favorite of mine. But it appears that he has fallen out of favor with AF, and I would prefer that he be traded so that he can get a fresh start. If the FO believes that Adam Kolarek is a better option than Caleb, then it is time to move him and maybe get something back in value.
AF has a hard job to make a determination of the cream of the crop, and when it is the right time to cut the player loose. He has not missed on many over the last 5 years. He has made grand trades for necessary players to take the team to the championship. It just has not worked. We have already discussed in great detail the prior three-year deadline deals. Nobody can say that AF did not make a concerted effort. The Dodger stars did not come through. Maybe this is the year.
I have no idea what changes may be necessary this winter. If AF can pull off another quantity over quality deal like the one he did for Machado, I would hope he would consider it. Otherwise, keep the status quo.
AC’s ABBREVIATED MINOR LEAGUE LOWDOWN
OKC Dodgers 5 – Las Vegas Aviators 10 (A’s)
Gavin Lux 3-5
Tulsa Drillers 0 – NW Arkansas Naturals 2 (Royals)
RC Quakes 1 – Visalia Rawhide 2 (DBacks)
John Rooney 5.0 scoreless innings, 3 hits, 1 walk, and 8 strikeouts
Great Lakes Loons 11 – South Bend Cubs 6
Kody Hoese 2-5 with a double, triple, and 4 RBIs
Ogden Raptors 1 – Rocky Mountain Vibes 5 (Brewers)
Brandon Lewis 2-4 with 9th double
AZL Dodgers Lasorda 2 – AZL Giants Black 1 (2 hits total)
Jorbit Vivas 3-4 with 2 doubles
AZL Dodgers Mota 9 – AZL Indians Blue 11
Ismael Alcantara 3-5
Discussion (88)
Disagree, not disagreeable
There was an interview with Friedman recently and he said that the Dodgers are going to put the best 12 pitchers out there for the playoffs.
So here is what we have for pitching in the post season. I’m an OPS guy both with offense and pitching. My OPS stats for pitching will probably sync up with whatever stat you look at. 650 OPS OR BELOW IS GOOD.
Potential starting pitching for the playoffs, OPS stats:
Ryu 577
Buehler 626
Kershaw 647
Maeda 680
Urias 688
Hill 711
Stripling 715
May 792, small sample size
Gonsolin 879, small sample size
Ferguson 1095, small sample size
Potential relief pitchers for the playoffs, OPS stats:
Kolarek 000, very small sample size and he’s just a loogy
Maeda 000, very small sample size
Gonsolin 467, small sample size
Baez 517
Sadler 536, small sample size
Urias 538
Jansen 648
Floro 673 but he’s just a roogy
Garcia 692
Stripling 745
Kelly 746, the damage was done to him in the first 2 or so months
Chargois 814
Ferguson 887
So we have Ryu, Buehler, Kershaw for starters. Where is our 4th starter?
So we have Baez, Urias, Jansen for relievers and 4 guys with small sample sizes that look good. Plus we have Kelly that the damage was done to him in the first 2 or so months.
On Dodger Talk, the host is saying Joc did not have a good lead at 2b and wasn’t getting an aggressive lead once the pitch was thrown. Hence Hosmer had a chance to throw him out on the ground ball by Verdugo
Agree, absolutely the correct thing to do with Joc going to third. He did the correct thing, except putting his hand up and touching Machado’s glove, might of been safe otherwise.
Richie,
In spite of being thrown out, if Joc does not lead off with a hit, that ground ball to 1B is the 2nd out, and nobody is on base. At least we had runner on, and one less out.
And why shouldn’t Joc go to 3B? How often do you see a throw to 3B after the ball is hit to the right side. Joc did what just about any runner would have done. Give Hosmer credit for a great play.
Gotta give credit where credit is due, Pollock a home run and a double off of righty pitching. Something he has hardly ever done this season against righty pitching.
Bum, please give Joc a sliding lesson. It looked like he had hit a patch of ice coming into third..
Now we know why Bum put Joc in the lead-off spot.
Did anyone around here want Kirby Yates for our pen?
Nice win
You think Buehler could go 1 more inning?
And get rid of Chargois too
Would someone please tell me why Joc is still leading off. He’s now down to .226 and 0 for last 23.
The umpire behind the plate is just another advertisement for an electronic strike zone.
Horrible HP umpire. No idea what is a strike.
This Negron dude has shown some nice skills so far!
The Dodgers are going to need to get some pitching in the off season via free agency or trade. You never have enough pitching, even if May and Gonsolin succeed.
No need to waste assets on position players, we still have a few position players to come from AAA.
How strange ? Yimmi gives up another home run. This guy is going to break the record of home runs given by a reliever !!
If Yimi sniffs a post season roster the Dodgers have some big issues. Maeda definitely needs to be in the BP.
I repeat.
Yimi Garcia is not, or ever will be a MLB quality Pitcher.
That inning turned when Maeda gave up a hit to a pitcher hitting under a .100.
Maybe it’s time to send him to the pen.
Ladies and Gentlemen,
That is why Maeda needs to be in the pen.
He cannot keep focus too long… maybe 2 innings.
Time to move Maeda to Bullpen ??
I think Maeda is ready to go to the bullpen down the stretch. He was great for those first 2 innings
I wrote this about Victor Gonzalez back on July 16, swimming just below the surface.
“The invisible man is left-hander Victor Gonzalez (23) who was signed back in 2013 out of Vera Cruz, Mexico. He lost the 2017 season due to injury. Gonzalez outgrew the California League this year after 8 appearances with the Quakes and has been a versatile member of the Drillers staff over his next 12 appearances, eight of them starts. He is 3-1 with a 2.28 ERA over 43.1 innings pitched with 42 strikeouts and 14 walks. In his last 10 appearances, he has an ERA of 1.89. In his last four starts, he gave up four earned runs in 22 innings. Since then he has been used in long and short relief and given up no runs in 7.2 innings.”
He moved up to OKC on July 26 and has been impressive. His last three appearances have been one hitter only and in each case he stranded an inherited runner. Looks like he is being groomed for a new role.
Was that Russell Martin, or was it Will Smith in his Russell Martin disguise?
Saw todays batting order and found out Maeda has a higher BA than 5 others in todays lineup. Just saying.