After 25% of the Season

I was not sure how I was going to write my column for Monday.  It was looking ugly for a while, but with a pair of 3-run HRs by AJ Pollock and Mookie Betts, the Dodgers turned a potential disaster into a win. Typical Dodger win with the long ball.  In the three game series, the Dodgers scored 17 runs, 14 of them directly from seven HRs.

I know that it is only 16 games into the season (or is it 43).  Regardless the season is more than 25% expired.  The team is 11-5 and has not exactly been as consistently dominating as may have been predicted.  Not that it is a be all end all stat, but the Dodgers have a run differential of +41.  The only team close is Colorado with +31.  The only other three teams in the neighborhood are Atlanta (+27), Minnesota (+23) and Cleveland (+22).  The five losses were by a combined total of 5 runs.  That coupled with an 8-1, 9-1, and 11-2 lopsided victories, the run differential is going to be substantial.  But it is the number of close games that could have been large victories that continue to stymie the offense.

The holes the Dodgers had coming into the game were front and center during the game.  The Dodgers starting pitching showed potential dominance, but with the lack of command, Walker Buehler could not finish 6 innings.  Buehler only allowed one hit, but did allow four walks and one HBP.  One of those walks and the HBP both reached base in the 5^th, and with a WP both runners moved into scoring position.  If this were the Dodgers, no problem.  They would not score.  But the Giants?  Two out, two strike pitch with runners in scoring position to Yastremski, and he does not try to yank it out of the yard.  Instead, on a good pitch, he takes a little off the swing, keeps his head down on the ball and lines one up the middle to score two.

Compare that to Joc Pederson’s AB with runners on 2^nd and 3^rd and no outs in the 8th.  First pitch he swings to hit the ball 500 feet…strike one.  Then, Dodgers typical Sunday AB…pop out.  But Mookie changed the dynamic with his AB.  He did not overswing, his head was down, and he drove it out of the yard.  There is nothing to indicate that any other Dodger would have been able to score the runners.

I am so tired of the all or nothing approach to Dodgers hitting.  Not every hitter has to have a high leg kick launch angle type approach.  Even with the singles on Sunday, right now, Cody Bellinger and Max Muncy are easy outs.  If I was pitching to Muncy, everything would be inside.  He apparently has forgotten to swing at anything in.  Max has 4 HR’s and all of 5 RBIs.  If that does not indicate what he does with runners on base, maybe this will. 

• RISP – .000/.313/.000/.313 – 3 walks and 2 HBP
• Man On – .105/.346/.105/.451
• O Out – .063/.167/.250/.417

Is there any reason that Max Muncy should bat leadoff again?  Did the leadoff experiment have anything to do with Max’s sluggish start?

Everybody’s favorite whipping boy is Austin Barnes, and even I am okay with the negativity towards Austin.  Admittedly, his offense is rather offensive.  But one of the other players our favorite fantasy league GM also likes to denigrate is Kike’ Hernandez.  AJ Pollock used to have that distinction as well, but now AJ is hitting, so he will remain okay…until he doesn’t.  The fantasy league GM seems to fancy Matt Beaty over Kike’.

The fantasy league GM does not care if Kike’ is the far better defensive player, but he is also outperforming him with the bat:

• Kike’ – .260/.288/.400/.688
• Beaty – .133/.235/.333/.569

I am not trying to denigrate Matt Beaty who I also like.  After all, Matt has only had 15 AB vs Kike’s 50.  However it seems a tad unfair to besmirch Kike’ who is hitting better than many of the Dodger regulars.  There is plenty of blame to go around.  Let’s take a look at the Dodger regular’s hitting lines:

• Joc – .195/.313/.415/.727
• Mookie – .281/.339/.596/.935
• Belli – .172/.232/.281/.513
• JT – .250/.352/.417/.769
• Max – .177/.311/.403/.714
• AJ – .311/.351/.667/1.021
• Smith – .214/.361/.464/.825
• CT3 – .239/.364/.348/.712
• Seager – .340/.389/.600/.989

The big boppers, Joc/Belli/Max are all sub-Mendoza line hitters after 25% of the season, and Kike’ and Barnes are the clear problems with the Dodgers?  Want to send Austin out to USC and bring in Keibert?  Okay, get it done.  Or bench Kike’ in lieu of Matt Beaty?  And both of those moves are going to solve the Dodger offensive woes? I contend, that it will not cause a blip on the worry register.  Maybe if Belli/Max/Joc/JT start to hit runners in, the Dodgers’ dominance might start to take off.

Looking at the other Dodgers concern, starting pitching, let’s start in the first inning. The Giants did a big favor to Buehler and LAD.  After walking Yastremski on four not close pitches, Dickerson and Solano swung on the second pitch and Belt on the first pitch, all outs.    After a 1-2-3 inning in the 2^nd, Buehler went back to waking the first batter in the 3^rd inning, but still got out of it with no damage.  In the 5^th, after getting Panda 0-2, he walked him.  After a fly out, Buehler hit Austin Slater with a pitch, and then uncorked a WP, putting runners on 2^nd and 3^rd.  Then the aforementioned Yastremski AB to drive in two.

After today’s start, the Dodgers still have only three quality starts in 16 games…11 victories.  Buehler is still struggling with his command after coming to ST 2.0 not ready to pitch.  That still concerns (irritates?) me as a fan.  What is the real Clayton Kershaw?  The one vs the DBacks or the one vs the Giants?  Julio Urias still does not or cannot attack the strike zone.  Ross Stripling is a fine #5 starting pitcher, but he needs the top 4 to step up.  Does Dustin May stay in the rotation?

While the starting pitching is still a bit suspect, the relievers once again were sterling.  Caleb Ferguson struck out the three batters he faced, and Jake McGee was splendid in his 1.0 IP.  Blake Treinen and KJ finished it up.  3.1 IP and one infield single, and 5 K’s.  Another good outing. 

One observation from watching the Giants broadcast.  Giants announcers, without actually saying they were intentional, pointed out the number of high and tight around the head fastballs that the Dodgers have been throwing.  They made innuendos, but would not come right and say that Dodger pitchers were head-hunting.  Right now, neither Joe Kelly nor Walker Buehler have much of a clue where the upper 90’s fastballs are going, especially to RH batters.

One other observation after watching 2B Donovan Solano continue his 14 game hitting streak, and sticking it to the Dodgers.  Tito Fuentes, Robby Thompson, Jeff Kent, Ray Durham, Freddy Sanchez, Joe Panic, and now Donovan Solano.  The Giants have had a few second baseman that have been a pain in the Dodgers’ side for several years. 

Now on to face the apparently potent SD Padres for four. Projected pitching matchups:

• Monday – Garrett Richards vs Dustin May
• Tuesday – Luis Perdomo vs Ross Stripling
• Wednesday – Zach Davies vs Julio Urias
• Thursday – Chris Paddack vs Clayton Kershaw

All games are scheduled to begin at 6:40 PM.