AC Back In The Saddle

First of all, I received multiple emails wishing me good health and prayers, and for that I will be forever grateful.  I do not get sick very often, but when I do, I do it right.  The illness occurs once every 5-6 years, and lasts a couple of weeks.  And it is almost always the same.  I start out with a head cold, with a severe sore throat, and it eventually settles in my chest.  For several days, I cough violently, losing my breath, and have on numerous occasions passed out after a coughing spell.  I have absolutely zero strength or energy to move around.  This year, cognizant of COVID-19, I continued to check for fever, but my body temperature never rose above normal.  This year I tried to beat the devil out of it with excess Vitamin C and Advil, and of course my wife’s soup.  It started a week ago today, and I was finally able to get out of bed on Saturday to compose this post.  I also had a COVID-19 test Saturday AM just in case.  I have stayed away from people the entire week, but there are 5 others in our house, and while they maintained their distance, they deserve to know if I was infected. 

After I complete this post, it will be back to bed for the rest my body still desperately needs.  During the week, I formatted Bear’s articles, and published them.  I was very grateful that he had enough to cover for me on Wednesday and Friday.  While I did read Bear’s articles while formatting them, I did not read many of the responses, since last Sunday.  I apologize, but I may be repeating topics and points of view that may have been reported during the week.

2020 MLB Winter Meetings (Dec. 7 – 10) – Dallas, Texas

Pre-pandemic, I was planning on making this trip.  I have never been to a Winter Meetings before, and I this was one of my scheduled retirement bucket list trips.  While the team advance employees and some journalists were scheduled to check into the Omni Dallas Hotel this evening, this year’s Meetings will be done virtually.  In most recent years, Scott Boras was the focal point of the meetings.  Per Bill Shaikin, in a December 4 article in the LA Times, “Stephen Strasburg, Gerrit Cole and Anthony Rendon can sign during the week of the winter meetings, as they did last year, and you’ve got news. Bryce Harper, J.D. Martinez and Jake Arrieta can sign after spring training opens, as they did in 2017 and 2018, respectively, and you’ve got next to nothing at the meetings.”

Shaikin goes on as to describe Boras as being mournful about the cancellation.  Shaikin quotes Scott Boras about his experiences at these meetings:

“The teams don’t give any insight. The interaction with the journalists, and having that forum, creates a level of excitement that frankly doesn’t exist in other sports.”

Boras is generally quite pointed and controversial while discussing how the owners have the money to (over)pay for his clients, and he isn’t disappointing in 2020. Boras stated, “There’s no team in baseball that lost money last year.”  He also believes that MLB owners have a financial interest in playing a 162 game schedule in 2021.  Per Shaikin, “He (Boras) dismisses suggestions that the 2021 schedule might be shortened because, he said, owners have promised their local television partners a full season.”  Per Boras, “So you better believe we’re playing a full season”.

So while it is virtual, there is a lot to discuss, and the agents are going to still be in a position to corral team decision makers.  I am comfortable in my beliefs that certain Zoom meetings have already been established.  There will undoubtedly still be some FA signings and trades this week.  How many and what players will be involved are not known, just like every other year.  There will also be some owner meetings of some kind, and hopefully they can come to an agreement with the MLBPA regarding the Universal DH.  Many FA signings and potential trades will be in limbo until that decision is made. 

I look forward to a good meeting, and will be watching MLB Network for any news.  If this comes off as many suspect, Shaikin opines that the meetings will not and should not be repeated again.  I will not go that far, as I think Boras is correct, and this type of meeting is unique to MLB, and brings some “excitement” to MLB.  However, it does seem reasonable that much if not all of the business can be done remotely.

Corey Knebel

Call me very intrigued.  I was going to be advocating Knebel if he were to be non-tendered, so I have no problem with the trade for PTBNL or cash.  Pre TJ, Knebel’s fastball was averaging 97.6.  Last year, he averaged 94.8.  After returning from a three week visit to the IL for hamstring issues, his FB average ticked up to 95.4. In all, one year removed from TJ surgery, Knebel pitched quite poorly in 15 games and 13.1 IP.  He never was able to get reacclimated and will now have another off season to get his baseball legs back.

While his fastball’s velo was down, Knebel is more known for his curveball which averages about 15 MPH below his fastball.  In 2017, Knebel had a FanGraph’s value of 12.  Outside of Joe Kelly, no other LAD reliever throws many curves.  One of AF’s comments was that he wanted to change the look all around for his bullpen.  Knebel does that. 

For all those who may have forgotten, Knebel pitched extremely well in the 2018 NLCS against the Dodgers.  6 games, 7.0 IP, 2 hits, 1 run, 10 K, 2 BB, and a batting line of .095/.208/.190/.399.  That works.

His arbitration forecast is around $5MM which should not be onerous for the Dodgers, and should not handcuff them from completing any other plans.  Knebel is exactly the reliever type that AF loves to sign for that high reward at a relatively low risk.  I know that the Dodgers (Doc and AF) are saying that relief roles are evolving and that matchups will not dictate which reliever comes in.  At the present time, a closer is not considered paramount.  However, I have a problem believing that Doc can readily make that change.  Thus, I still see the need for another late inning high leverage reliever.  Knebel may be able to get back to that level, but I think LAD will still look for another.  My pick was Trevor May, but the Mets signed him. I do not see AF signing Liam Hendriks, but could check into the Brad Hand, Trevor Rosenthal, or Blake Treinen (in that order).  IMO, with trading for Knebel, I cannot see AF trying to get another reclamation project like Kirby Yates.   Although my preference is still trading for Blake Snell and leaving Dustin May and Tony Gonsolin in the bullpen, eliminating the need for another late inning high leverage reliever. Strong veteran starting pitching is my preference, especially when it gets to the postseason. BUT, I do not expect the Dodgers to acquire Snell.

MY PITCHING ROSTER

• Walker Buehler (RHSP)
• Clayton Kershaw (LHSP)
• Blake Snell (RHSP)
• Julio Urias (LHSP)
• David Price (LHSP)
• Dustin May (RHRP)
• Tony Gonsolin (RHRP)
• Corey Knebel (RHSP)
• Brad Hand (LHRP)
• Brusdar Graterol (RHRP)
• Joe Kelly (RHRP)
• Victor Gonzalez (LHRP)
• Dylan Floro (RHRP)

Two other LHRP, Scott Alexander and Adam Kolarek, both have options remaining, and should be on that OKC Express.  They are both emergency depth pieces. 

Discounting Urias and Buehler, LAD pitchers with options include, Alexander, Gerardo Carrillo, Dylan Floro, Tony Gonsolin, Victor Gonzalez, Brusdar Graterol, Andre Jackson, Kolarek, Dustin May, Dennis Santana, Josh Sborz, Edwin Uceta, and Mitch White.  That is not just depth (13 pitchers), but functional depth. 

Top LAD Players

Bear had a good article on his opinions of the best Dodgers from Brooklyn and LA for each position.  While I was formatting the article for publication, I had a chance to read it.  I did not grow up during the Brooklyn days, so I really have no personal bias favorably or unfavorably.  I cannot offer any dissenting or agreeable opinions, so I will let those who have knowledge debate those players.

Left Fielder –

For LA, I am okay with most of the positions.  Gary Sheffield had a fantastic three years, but I have an issue with anyone who was a Dodger for all of three years can qualify to be the best in LAD history at a position.  TD played 7 years with the Dodgers.  His best three were 1962-1964.  His batting line was .317/.349/.466/.815, 66 doubles, 17 triples, 57 HR, 327 RBIs.  He was a two-time MLB batting average.  In 1962, TD led MLB in hits and RBIs.  As good as his 199-2001 seasons were for LAD, outside of HRs and OPS, his numbers were very comparable to Davis’.  Batting line .312/.420/.581/1.001, 72 doubles, 5 triples, 113 HRs, and 310 RBIs.  Sheff did not lead MLB or NL in any category.  In addition, TD played on three Dodger WS teams, including two World Champions.

Sheff gets credit for the best three years, while IMO Tommy Davis was the overall best LAD left fielder in LAD history.  Dusty Baker played a stellar 8 years, and his LAD career metrics were very comparable to Davis’, but Dusty never had two years comparable to Davis.  Dusty also represented LAD in three WS, but only one Champion.   I am going with Tommy Davis as best LAD LF.

Catcher –

Bear selected Mike Piazza, and I believe because he was a HOF and the best offensive catcher in LAD history.  However, IMO there is more to being a catcher than being an offensive threat.  For me, being a defensive catcher and game caller are more important for being a catcher than the offense.  Mike Scioscia and Steve Yeager handled the pitching staffs expertly.  Yeager was the LAD catcher for 14 years and was the primary catcher on 4 WS teams (74, 77, 78, and 81).  Scioscia was a LAD catcher for 13 years, and was the co-catcher in the 81 WS and the primary catcher for the 88 WS championship teams.  Scioscia was a LAD his entire 13 year career, while Yeager was a LAD for 14 of his 15 career years.  I am not about to compare Yeager or Scioscia offensively to Piazza, but Piazza only represented LAD in the 1995 and 1996 NLDS where they went 0-6.  Lou Brock called Yeager the best-throwing catcher in the game.  Scioscia caught two no-hitters and hit a dramatic HR off Doc Gooden in 1988 NLCS.  Mike is also the Dodgers all-time leader in games caught (1,395).

• Steve Yeager caught stealing rate was 38%.
• Mike Scioscia caught stealing rate was 34%.
• Mike Piazza caught stealing rate was 23%.

Because I value the catching/throwing/receiving/game calling aspects for a catcher to be more of a consideration than offense, I would rate both Yeager and Scioscia over Piazza.  Because Yeager was the catcher for LAD in four World Series to three for Scioscia, by the smallest of margins, I would select Yeager as my pick for the LAD all-time catcher.

RHSP –

I could argue that Don Sutton was the best all-time RHSP for LAD, but my very first game at Dodger Stadium was Game 3 of the 1963 WS, where Big D fired a complete game 1-0 shutout 2-hit victory over Jim Bouton and the NYY. I will never forget that experience as long as I live.  In his 16 years as a Dodger, Little D was never spectacular, but he was always good to very good.  He made the HOF because of longevity and being good to very good over that long period of time.  Drysdale had a 14 year LAD career.  None of Sutton’s LAD career numbers clearly place him above Drysdale.  I agree that Big D is the greatest LAD RHSP in LAD history.

LHSP –

To most, there has never been a greater LAD than Sandy Koufax.  While Game 3 of the 1963 WS was my first game a Dodger Stadium, Game 4 was my second.  While Koufax’s effort was not as dominating as Drysdale’s, it did clinch the World Series.  In fact, Whitey Ford was a more dominating pitcher in Game 4.

There is a very short list of the top LHSP of all time and Koufax is at the elite level.  But that was because for a 5 year period, no pitcher dominated the game of baseball more than did Sandy Koufax from 1962-1966.  I think most on this site grew up around baseball during the Koufax/Drysdale era, and it is always the childhood hero that takes precedence in player comparisons.

But for me, Clayton Kershaw has dominated for a longer period of time and was not outpitched that much in shorter periods.

Both pitchers were CY winners three times in four years.  Koufax was a top five CY vote receiver for four consecutive years (1963-1966).  The year he did not win, he was #3.  OTOH, Kershaw was top five vote-getter in seven consecutive years (2011-2017), and top three in six of those years.  Both pitchers were MVP’s.   

• Koufax – (1961-1966) – 211 GS, 1632.2 IP, 129-47, 2.19 ERA, 0.970 WHIP, 1713K, 412BB, 2.16 FIP, 156 ERA+
• Kershaw – (2011-2017) – 207 GS, 1452 IP, 118-41, 2.10 ERA, 0.913 WHIP, 1249 K, 242BB, 2.36 FIP, 179 ERA+
• Koufax – (1963-1966) – 150 GS, 1192.2 IP, 97-27, 1.86 ERA, 0.909 WHIP, 1228K, 259BB, 1.97 FIP, 172 ERA+
• Kershaw – (2011-2014) – 126 GS, 895.1 IP, 88-33, 2.11 ERA, 0.946 WHIP, 948K, 200BB, 2.41 FIP, 172 ERA+
• Koufax (Career – 1955-66) – 314 GS, 2324.1 IP, 2.76 ERA, 1.106 WHIP, 2396K, 817BB, 2.69 FIP, 131 ERA+
• Kershaw (Career – 2008 – Current) – 354 GS, 2333 IP, 2.43 ERA, 1.003 WHIP, 2526K, 585BB, 2.75 FIP, 158 ERA+

While Kershaw’s post season numbers are not impressive, no pitcher in MLB history has more strikeouts in the postseason with 207.  Yes, I recognize that is because of expanded playoffs, but nevertheless, nobody else stands above Clayton in this category.

If we are to choose which Dodger LHSP had the best four year run, no pitcher in MLB history had a better four year run than Koufax’s 1963-1966.  But the premise was, who has been the best LAD LHSP, and for me, career wise, Clayton Kershaw is the GOAT. Many of us Dodger fans have been very fortunate to have watched both Koufax and Kershaw as Dodgers and at the elite of the elite level.

I have run out of gas, and I did not have an opportunity to include pictures. Hopefully I am on the road to recovery, but right now, I do need my rest.