It’s easy to be a fan. It takes no effort, really. You just root for your team, and if your team is winning… well, you are a fan… and you are happy. To some fans, if the team is not winning, they are no longer willing to be a fan. We call them “fair weather fans.” I have been an LA Dodger fan since 1963, and there has been fair weather, bad weather, and good weather. I consider the past ten years to be the best time in my life to be a Dodger fan. However, I understand something that some fans don’t: You can’t always gauge success by Championships.
You used to be able to do that. The winner of the National League Pennant played the winner of the American League Pennant for the World Series, and, statistically speaking, you had a 50-50 chance of winning. Unless you are mathematically challenged, the odds are much lower now. I don’t care if you have the best team. The odds still come into play. If you are of the opinion that Andrew Friedman can build a team that can win 100 games but not win the World Series, you are seriously delusional!
Having the best record after 162 games is an indicator of how good a team is overall from top to bottom. Winning a best of five games or seven games is nothing like that. It has nothing to do with the amount of talent. It has to do with luck. It’s a crapshoot! Literally! If you are the best team, then the odds are better, but the more teams there are, the worse your odds are. Pure and simple! If you cannot comprehend that, you are simply too stubborn. Baseball has changed – the playoffs are different – accept that! Are there things that a team can do to play better so that they don’t get bounced in the first round? Absolutely and I will discuss that in a future column.
Then someone will say, “Well, why play the games then?” Yeah, that’s the question and the current playoff format has somewhat made the regular season not as important. But you still play to win a Championship – that’s why! I listened to an interview with one of the Rangers announcers, who has since moved on to Atlanta, and he said he could not believe the Rangers actually won the World Series. They stumbled down the stretch and got in by the grace of God and had a bullpen that was horrible… until the playoffs!
I won’t give you the blow-by-blow, but it was not the most talented team that won, and Bruce Bochy did not make many genius moves. They were damn lucky… and while they did have some talent, it was nothing close to LA, San Diego, Baltimore, or Atlanta. Those teams were vastly more talented. I don’t like the current state of the playoffs because why play 162 games if you are going to have a crapshoot in the end? There is a better way, but I will save that for another day.
If you are really a fan, like me, I want to understand everything about the game. I have been a student of baseball for 60+ years, and I still learn every day. I recently read the book “Future Value” and realized how little I still know. If I were to go back 60 years and start over, maybe Baseball would have been my vocation instead of my hobby. But I would not change anything. I have been successful in life and in business, and baseball is a great hobby for me. I love it!
So… What is the Biggest Mistake?
The biggest mistake baseball fans make is to look at last year’s statistics and think that the player or team they are looking at will do the same as last year. Nothing could be less true. A player or team will do one of the following:
- They will be better;
- They will be worse; or
- They will be the same.
There is a 33% chance they will be the same. There is also a 33% chance they will be worse, and there is a 33% chance they will be better! I will not draw your conclusions – you need to. Don’t make the mistake of having sight over vision. Don’t see talent where there isn’t, but remember talent is rare, and truly understand that progress is not linear! You also need to understand that the game is played by humans, and sometimes some crazy stuff happens.
Do you think that some of Max Muncy’s problems were the result of his arm injury? I know it was, and I also know that sometimes you think your body has recovered, only to find out later that you weren’t even close. I think that happened with Cody Bellinger as well. I think a 100% healthy Max Muncy could very well put up a career year in 2024.
I have seen Gavin Lux running, and he says he is fine, but he had a horrific injury. Let’s say he is OK… can we expect him to play SS at a high level for 140 games? Of course, you know my opinion of Gavin Lux as a SS. I don’t think he is, but evidently, the Dodgers do, so let’s assume that I am wrong and he is going to be capable of playing SS at a high level. Can he do it for 162 games? Of course not! Can he do it for 140 games? Maybe. I think his bat will play up and he will be another .800+ OPS guy in a lineup full of them.
It’s going to be a fun Spring Training!
Discussion (18)
Disagree, not disagreeable
Back home and it is nice to be here. I want to wish all of you a Very Happy New Year. If you are going out to celebrate, be careful, there are a lot of nuts out there.
Well, I know from what you wrote that you have no inside information because Doc has not lost the team, and his players and former players admire him greatly. I do happen to have inside information on this, and what you just wrote about him is false and reckless.
The pontification on this blog is something to behold, especially when it accompanies criticism of how the Dodger Manager speaks.
Luck has always been a large part of this game. It kind of balances itself out during 162 games. The difference is a short series does not allow any balancing. The reason the baseball post season has been called a “crapshoot” is the fact that anything can (and frequently does) happen in a short series with little time for correction.
You guys may be sick and tired of the “crapshoot” reference but I am sick and tired of the unending criticism of a Manager that has the best regular season record in baseball history. Then comes the argument “what about the postseason?” Talk about recency bias. Yes, the last 2 years have sucked but what about the previous 5 years? Three trips to the WS, one title albeit maybe really was 2. It’s impossible to call that 5 year record a failure. I want us to win the WS as much as anyone, but get some damn perspective.
In the playoffs you get a much better chance of getting lucky when you put the ball in play and not strike out. A lot of guys need to adapt a better 2 strike approach. Especially Muncy and Taylor!
“Luck Is What Happens When Preparation Meets Opportunity”
This quote, attributed to Roman philosopher Seneca, reminds us that we make our own luck. The difference between lucky and unlucky people, we’ve seen before, is all in our perspective.
Luck isn’t just about being at the right place at the right time, but also about being open to and ready for new opportunities.
Perhaps the Dodgers need to think more about being more open to and ready for new opportunities.
I’ve never heard anyone say there’s no luck involved but I’ve heard a lot of sore losers call it a crapshoot
BJD & Duke,
Perhaps no sport is more dependent on “luck” than baseball. You can get a “shooters roll” in basketball, but if the ball is not almost all within the rim, you don’t make the shot. Pure and simple. It’s not like that in baseball.
In 2018, the year Mookie Betts won the AL MVP, his BAbip was .368. In 2022, it was .272, and last year it rose to .316. Some of that is skill, and some of it is just blind luck. BAbip tells a story involving a large degree of luck.
Tatis, Jr. can hit the ball right on the screws, and Cody Bellinger can jump over the fence and catch it. Does that mean that in that play, Tatis was not good, or was it bad luck (for him)? On the other hand, I have seen a bloop single that split the outfielders and turned into an inside-the-park HR. Luck? Damn straight!
Corey Seager has been a Word Series MVP twice, and he has a .294 BA in the WS to go with a .991 OPS. Yet, Dodger fans minimize the role Roberts played in 2020 and fixate on Bochy’s Role in 2023. Ha – Pure hypocrisy! Corey is clutch!
The Rangers lost 5 out of their last 9 games, including the last two of the season, and backed into the playoffs thanks to other teams losing. It was pure luck that they made the playoffs.
The Rangers pitching staff was the 18th best in MLB. Their starters were #7, and the bullpen was #24. Offensively, the Dodgers were better than the Rangers, scoring more runs, hitting more HRs , stealing more bases, and having a higher OPS and OB%.
The reliever (Sborz), who was on the mound for the final out, had a 5.50 ERA during the regular season and a 0.75 ERA in the postseason. I think the odds are better that he has a 5.50 ERA next season than a 0.75 ERA. You can’t say with a straight face and a sound mind that Lady Luck is not involved.
The Dodgers did not play a significant game in September. They had the division locked up. The Rangers played the whole month of September as if each game was the last and had a 15-13 record, including losing the final two games. They backed into the playoffs while the Dodgers cruised in.
The reality of the situation is that the Dodgers had no business winning last year, not even counting Mookie and Freddie choking. The rotation was decimated and yes, AF could have gutted the farm and got Montgomery and others, but right about now, even Ray Charles can see why he did not: Glasnow, Yamamoto and Ohtani.
In the post season the first game typically pits each team’s Ace against the other. That game should be low scoring and the losing team wasted their Ace. If the other team’s Ace is a lefty the Dodgers probably won’t be favored to win the first game.
It seems like the Dodgers would have had more success in the playoffs if they could have mixed more small ball into their attack to better address the better pitching they will face. If true, how would they best accomplish that? Change the game plan or change the mix of players that would remove one or more big swingers with one or more contact hitters?
The Pitching Ninja on YouTube has a pretty cool analysis of Yamamoto’s mechanics, including his “javelin” training. (Not a true Olympic javelin, but more of a long dart.) He’s extremely flexible–it’s emphasized in his workouts–and that should limit the injury risk.
The Ninja echoes the sentiments that Yamamoto, given his stature, may be comparable to Pedro Martinez and Lincecum.
The “Ginoza curveball” is something I’m sure my 14-year-old crafty southpaw will be practicing. Nice to have another average-size role model in the game–and especially on the Dodgers.
My fanatical friend whose son is an analytics guy for the Blue Jays sent her New Year’s greeting out on Facebook:
“Only 45 days until pitchers and catchers report!”
Man I sure was hoping all the crapshoot crap was beaten so deep in ground already wouldn’t have to hear about it again at least till August. Why. Why why
I try to keep it simple. In the playoffs I’d put my money on a team with two elite starters and good staff all around but poor hitting over a team with great hitting and a poor staff. Now all GM‘s got to do is find that delicate balance in between. Simple. Lol
I agree with you Mark. This is a great time to be a Dodger fan. I have been fan since 1985. I will be 49 next month. I do hope we get Hader, another SP and maybe Pham. They might as well keep going all in.
I think we Dodger fans are becoming.a bit too accustomed to a division championship followed by a postseason collapse.
So now we are celebrating the offseason as a triumph:
Ohtani! Yamamoto! Glasnow!
Certainly it’s more exciting for us than watching other teams play in October.
I hope we have a couple more “wins” before spring training.
The most important element a team can have in the postseason is starting pitching that can shutdown the other teams offense. That’s how we won in the 60’s and that’s what will make us successful going forward. We didn’t have that last season, and we had no chance.
Andrew is building a starting rotation that can dominate, especially with the first three starters.
dodgers got criticized for glasnow. nowthe braves bring in Sale. while he doesn’t really scare hitters as much as he used to, still a very good pitcher when healthy. an era over 4 last season . the strikeouts are still there, but he can be hit. i’m not sure the braves starting pitching is better than the dodgers, although Fried is in a contract year, and Strider can be a beast. charlie morton is almost 40. not sure anybody afterthatis as. good as what the dodgers can roll out there. i am concerned about walker b. i was disappointed they didn’t sign Giolita. i agree mark, if Ryu is completely healthy, why not? could be a great signing. heard on mlb Clayton isn’t sure about pitching this season, and if he does it actually might be in texas. hope that’s not true. now atlanta in my opinion still has a better lineup top to bottom. with mookie moving to 2nd our outfield took a big step backwards. some fans and even some media when listing the dodgers outfield have Chris Taylor starting in left. if thatscthe casevthe dodgers are in trouble. not because he can’t play left field, he’s very good defensively wherever he plays. but that’s the key , wherever he plays! he’s not an everyday player. way too much swing and miss. but, he’s a very good defender wherever he plays. if rojas is moved and lux plays shortstop, taylor becomes an important part of that infield late in games. that makes the case for a right handed bat for left field! no rosarios, no joc , no kiki. duvall is slightly intriguing. lot of power and he can play all 3 outfield positions. some swing and miss. Pham? i believe he would love to play in LA, i believe he would not be a distraction in the clubhouse. i’m just not sure he is an upgrade. he’s not playing 130 games nor is he hitting better than .230-.240 . in summary, te braves outfield is better. AF can fix that but will he? i said earlier a bench with barnes,rojas, taylor is scary.so much swing and miss. the way Doc platoons and does it early, that’s trouble later in games. a Ryu signing, a right fielder, and giveFeducciaa shot.
Mark,
infrequent poster but frequent reader here
thanks for all your efforts on the blog … very enjoyable read
Please keep up the good work and all the best to you and family in 2024
also, no LH starter is not ideal
If left handers Sale and Fried are healthy in a post season series with the Dodgers and with left handed reliever Bummer in the bullpen acquired in a trade the the White Sox, my opinion is the Dodgers will not fare well in that series being a predominantly left handed power hitting lineup. Right now the Brave’s lineup is more balanced than our lineup and their starting pitching is also better than ours. Hopefully AF is not through and needs a power right handed bat and a left handed starter. Maybe the 30 year Japanese lefty starter still unsigned is the answer or Kershaw if healthy at mid season.AF and ownership have gone all in thus far and can’t stop now.