I have always wondered about the predictability of having a closer and why teams have simply gone in the direction of having a 9th inning man, no matter what the situation was. If you really think about it, throwing that “stopper” out there for the final three outs night after night is probably not the best managerial strategy. It may be for teams with limited bullpen resources, but not with the arms the Dodgers have in their pitching arsenal.
When you have a cadre of effective relievers that can be utilized, why telegraph your move by saving one guy for the last three outs constantly? The ninth-inning matchups with that player might not be what you are looking for. Honestly, any matchups for a guy like Kimbrell are terrible at this point, but this comes to our attention for a number of reasons. This is primarily because of Kimbrel’s ineffectiveness, but for the last several years, as Jansen faltered frequently, these managerial decisions have received more attention than before. The Dodgers actually won the 2020 World Series without a 9th inning guy. They went old school closer a’ la the Rollie Fingers, Mike Marshall era, when their last guy would go multiple innings. In 2020, that was a hot Julio Urias.
For 2022, the rubber-armed multiple-inning closer does not appear to be an option. They certainly could try it with a player like Dustin May, but it would be at great risk because he hasn’t done it and his return from TJ surgery makes his arm a bit delicate for such a formidable task. The most likely option will be to insert relievers one inning at a time, hoping that they are all on their game.
The Dodgers have Vesia, Ferguson, Phillips, Kahnle, Kimbrel, Graterol, Martin, Price, and Bickford on the 26-man roster. They have possible other options in the postseason of returning players like Almonte, Treinen, Jackson, Gonzalez, and Bruihl. That’s a lot of depth, and more than one of these options is capable of retiring the final three outs of a game.
As a fan, I used to go nuts during the Jansen prime years when managerial decisions would be made to hold him out until the 9th when a prime threat was happening in the 7th or 8th inning. The best matchup at that time was Jansen to come in (remember, this was when he was regularly retiring the side in order, and he rarely walked anyone). Putting in Jansen never happened except for an occasional 2-inning save starting in the 8th. Often players like Pedro Baez, Yimi Garcia, Luis Avilan, and the like would be facing the biggest threats in the game during the 7th or 8th innings.
There is a common belief that the final three outs of the game are the toughest outs to get. That may be true in many cases because you have hitters up there with a mindset of survivalists. They are more focused on staying alive and having a smart AB, but when you have the weak spot of the order up and a line of pinch hitters that are coming in cold, I tend to think that every situation is different.
This bullpen conundrum is probably the biggest concern of this excellent Dodger team that will finish with the most regular season wins they have ever recorded. It is concerning enough to put most fans on edge. The days of the complete game are simply gone, and boy, we could use a few of those in the playoffs. The pen will need to pick this team up and carry them to the end. It is a major concern how Roberts utilizes these guys and how they all perform on the biggest stage.
Late Season Dodger Bullets
- I was looking back on this year, and it seems like the lockout was eons ago. There were some crazy happenings around February and March. Think about how different this season would have been without Tyler Anderson. Anderson wasn’t officially a Dodger until late March and his placement on the 26-man staff was questionable at the beginning of the year until an injury surfaced that opened up his slot in the rotation. None of us were really excited at the prospect of Anderson toeing the rubber on a consistent basis. Now we are all hoping he re-signs with the club for next season.
- Speaking of late acquisitions and their impact, ponder this… Freddie Freeman was not a Dodger until March 18th. Had Atlanta not jumped the gun and signed Matt Olson, it is very likely that Freeman would have returned to Atlanta, and that would have made this season completely different. Freeman will probably win the batting championship unless he completely slumps in the final week of the season. These late moves, all caused by the lockout, were game changers.
- Speaking of Atlanta, does anyone remember this tweet on February 14th from Braves left-handed reliever Tyler Matzek? “They do parades for real championships, not ‘bubbleships.’” Maybe that means nothing to the players, but it raises my ire. Sometimes quotes like that are bulletin board material that sparks intensity. It is probably nothing because it was a long time ago but I hope players are reminded of it, and that they get the opportunity to light up Matzek. He shut them down in game 6 of last year’s NLCS so revenge would be sweet in 2022.
- Kimbrel’s latest failure in San Diego (9/27) should be the nail in the coffin for his post-season hopes. Walking swing machine Alfaro on non-competitive glove side pitches was simply unforgivable. Losing on a walk-off hit can be acceptable (not ideal, but acceptable). But there is no excuse when you give a free pass to a guy that never walks in that situation.
- The good news about post-season baseball: No runner is placed on second base in extra-inning games. The Dodgers have never adjusted to this new regular season rule and their record for two consecutive years shows it.
- Is it me or have Justin Turner and Muncy made a lot of wild throws from the third base position in the past month? Let’s not even talk about Lux.
- Former Dodger manager Don Mattingly’s departure from Miami at the end of the year was expected. Will he return to baseball in some capacity in the future? I can see the Yankee organization calling him back one day, but probably not as the field general.
- Gonsolin’s rehab outing at OKC was promising. 2 IP, 1 H, 0 BB, 2 SO, 27 pitches. Here’s hoping he comes out of it feeling ok in these coming days. Contributions by Gonsolin would be a huge lift in the playoffs.
Discussion (27)
Disagree, not disagreeable
The Lux question is interesting…
Could he be traded? Sure. Especially if Trea signs a long-term contract. Muncy, Busch or Mookie could all play 2nd. Perhap
The Dodgers are so good and deep they don’t really need anything. But what if Ohtani is placed on the market? Lux could fit in that blockbuster.
I’d be surprised if AF & Company doesn’t have a shopping list. The Dodgers don’t need Hunter Greene, for example, but he’s an LA guy and would look good in blue. The Reds may not be willing–but it’s not like they don’t need an infusion of MLB-ready talent.
I’m not sure who else might be in play on the trade market. But think Lux could be a nice bargaining chip.
Oh well. Jinxed Ohtani.
Sorry about that….
But apart from the Dodgers postseason, I’m more interested in the fate of the Angels franchise than anything else.
My guess is that the new owners will want to have Ohtani under contract. They can then decide whether or when to deal Ohtani, or try to sign him long-term. If at some point Ohtani does come on the market, I hope the Dodgers will be in the mix for a blockbuster.
Chris Martin just struck out Machado on 3 pitches.
Yeah, I think closer-by-committee could work…
Meanwhile, Ohtani has thrown 7.2 innings of no-hit ball, with 10 Ks and a single walk.
A no-hitter would be pretty sweet.
Wes Stock with a question.
https://www.tiktok.com/t/ZTRmmWCnp/
Like MT stated, we have plenty of other options at 2B especially if Trea resigns. Another power arm in the BP would be extremely beneficial. You can’t EVER have enough pitching as we’ve clearly have seen in recent years. Williams is as close to a shut down closer as there is in the NL.
From where is this destruction mafia coming from?
You can apply to San Diego GM.
If Trea resigns, then make Lux part of a deal to bring Devin Williams from Milwaukee and send Lux home to Wisconsin. It will obviously take more than Lux but AF has lots of depth to work with in order to sweeten the deal.
VIVA AZUL!!!
So, let’s take the emotion out of it.
BTW, I like Gavin Lux – I just don’t worship him, and I do see his warts. There are several people in the Dodgers organization who I know do not believe Lux can play SS. While I do not know what Friedman thinks, for sure, I can look at his past record and pretty confidently say that AF probably feels much like I do. I think Gavin Lux will continue to improve and be a good player. The only thing that can derail him is his head, so don’t put him at SS where he has failed more than once.
Here’s why I believe he has a 50/50 chance at being traded:
Who else can play 2B?
Betts, Busch, Vargas, and Muncy.
Lux has much more trade value than Busch or Vargas – he is on the verge of stardom. LUx would bring a lot in return and we still have four 2nd Basemen.
9:40 PM ET
Dodgers (107-48)
Padres (86-69)
SP Brusdar Graterol R
2-3 2.89 46.2IP 10BB 41K
SP Steven Wilson R
4-2 2.88 50IP 18BB 50K
Confirmed Lineup
RF Mookie Betts R
SS Trea Turner R
1B F. Freeman L
DH Will Smith R
3B Max Muncy L
2B Chris Taylor R
LF T. Thompson R
C A. Barnes R
CF C. Bellinger L
Partly-cloudy-night
1% Rain
72° Wind 5 mph Out
I liked the way Doc used the bullpen yesterday. More specifically the guys he used. See, I give credit to Doc when credit is due. Speaking of the bullpen, I think I jumped the gun when I included Ferguson in a Doc proof bullpen. I never really cared for Ferguson, but he was lights out for awhile when he started his season and I thought maybe he changed something that made him better. Also that pitch (I think it’s a curve ball) from Ferguson that starts out way towards the first base line and then comes over the plate seems way slow and way hitable.
I checked last 14 day hitting stats for individual Dodgers position players and it wasn’t pretty. Unless Baseball Reference is wrong everybody besides Freeman, Smith, J Turner, and if you want to include Barnes with a very small sample, are not hitting.
Manufacturing a single run for a game in the 10th inning isn’t the most inspirational down the stretch feeling for the playoffs. San Diego pitching is not the biggest obstacle we’ll likely see ahead so we’ll need to some spark our sparkplugs to do things like bunting rather than fail scoring a single run for 9 innings. Good pitching against good pitching leaves the need for a way to manufacture runs when we can’t get around the guy on the mound. I’m pretty certain the other teams are looking that might be the map for defeating the Dodgers when push comes to shove. Can’t only zig if it ain’t working where zagging could be the step needed. I could be nitpicking a historical team but I’d sure hate seeing an opposing team beat us to the punch. It’s always going to be scary when so much is invested in something so uncertain.
If lux ever gets to the point where he is healthy and not being platooned so much I think he’s a 300 hitter with 15-20 homer power. No way I trade him or move him to short! If trea doesn’t resign I truly believe Friedman makes a serious run at judge, love trea but judge as a backup option? I’ll take it! Starting to feel good about pitching, bullpen looks like it can take us a long way.
SMH at all the Lux haters. When was the last time you saw the Dodgers give a position to a rook?
Sure Mookie can play second, but we have a platoon in LF, a CF that can’t hit and Mookie. Where you gonna get all these replacement outfielders from?
Unless you put Mookie at second and Lux in the outfield, that makes both positions shittier on D. And don’t tell me that Mookie is a better second baseman in the 46 innings he’s played at the position this year.
There’s exactly 4 second basement with a higher OPS this year than Lux.
Lux has 9 errors and a 971 fielding pct.
McNeil 3 992 (6 and 976 last year)
Gimenez 7 987
Altuve has 9 and 979
Wong 17 961
Your view of Lux’s defense is greatly exaggerated!
Once again, I’ll point to Trea Turner, who everyone things is a great defensive shortstop.
16 errors and 968
Bogaerts 10 and 983
Correa 8 and 983
Bichette 22 and 959
Lindor 1 and 995
Trea is the 4th worst fielding shortstop out of the 5 best hitting shortstops
Lux is the 4th worst hitting second basement out of the 5 best hitting second basemen
So why all the hate for Lux and not for Trea?
Lux is a top 5 second baseman right now. This is a best case scenario when the season started, he delivered and you’re never satisfied. Talking about trading Lux is pure fantasy.
* How good is the pitching? No runs in 10 innings. The part I like best is only 2 walks given out.
* Trea Turner, what a nice jump throw from the 6 hole with a LHB. I have not seen him make that particular throw all year. A little Derek Jeter action. You can actually get more on that throw by jumping and rotating instead of across the body on the run. He showed plenty of arm. Really nice play.
* I lobby for Lux to be the everyday guy at 2nd but occasionally his fundamentals around 2nd are suspect on some plays, namely tags and pivots. He had 2 marginal turns at 2nd. He wants to straddle the bag to receive the feed, neither crossing over or drop stepping. He throws flat footed, in the baseline, and doesn’t step into his throw. I’d like to see a real drop step to get something on the throw to first.
On Machado steal of 2nd, why is Lux receiving Smith’s throw way in front of the base and doesn’t let the ball travel? It’s an easy out if he moves his feet and straddles the bag and lets the ball travel for a pop tag. As it was, he had to sweep to tag Manny who was sliding to the far outfield corner of the bag. He turned a great throw into a reviewed play instead of an easy out.
* Will’s hand better be ok or we are screwed. He had that meat hand seemingly tucked behind his shin guard and the ball amazingly found a way to hit his hand.
* Karros’ distains the bunt. No matter the situation. When Grisham attempted a safety squeeze to tie the game in the 10th, Karros said the slumping Grisham “has 17 homers but this is what it’s come down to”. Like a play to score the tying run other than bashing away was desperation. Conversely, I look at it as a great play to tie the game with a better bunt attempt.
I looked it up. In 1755 MLB games, guess how many sac bunts Karros laid down?
You Guessed er Chester…………………..zero.
107 wins and counting.
Referencing B&P above, sign me up for Pillar.
Nothing personal Messrs. Gallo and Kimbrel, but I don’t want you on my post season rosters. I think they should be be dfa’d today which would allow us to add a couple of guys like Pillar and VGon whenever they might be ready.
Pillar, along with playing good outfield, plays with an intensity that I don’t see from many of the Dodgers. The guys get along great with each other, there is definitely a great clubhouse vibe, but I would love to have the “run through a wall” mentality that Pillar brings to the game. I think that would be a major help in a playoff situation.
Grabbed this from another board/blog:
The Dodgers won their franchise-record 107th game on Wednesday, putting a bow on one of the greatest regular seasons in MLB history, Axios’ Jeff Tracy writes.
By the numbers: With seven games left, they have a chance to become just the seventh team to win 110 games in a season.
Their +322 run differential is the sixth-best since 1900 and the best since the 1939 Yankees. It’s also nearly 100 better than second place (Yankees, +235).
Their 494 runs allowed put them just about on pace to allow the fewest of any team this century (2015 Cardinals, 525).
Fans have contributed, too: Their average attendance of 47,687 trails only 2019 (49,065) for the most in franchise history, and is 17% higher than second place this season (Cardinals, 40,775).
Between the lines: The Dodgers’ payroll ranks second behind only the Mets, but money alone can’t buy this many wins. It’s the depth beyond their stars that once again is driving their success.
Unheralded guys like Trayce Thompson (Klay’s little brother) and Tyler Anderson have stepped in for the struggling Cody Bellinger and injured Walker Buehler.
Injuries could have sunk them — they’ve lost the fourth-most days to the IL among all teams — but instead they’ve battled to a historic end.
The big picture: The Dodgers’ 2022 season is an all-timer in a vacuum, but is even more impressive when you look at the 10-year run it’s capping off.
The only time since 2013 they failed to win the division was last year — when they won 106 games.
They’re the only team in MLB history to win 106+ games in three straight full seasons. In the non-full season, all they did was win the World Series.
Their 927 wins since 2013 are 72 more than second place (Yankees, 855), roughly the same as the difference between the Yankees and the ninth-place Cubs (784).
The bottom line: The Dodgers are very good at baseball — so good that one might be tempted to say there’s something in the water in Southern California. Then again, the Angels exist.
JT is out with a leg contusion. He will miss a few games. Rocks coming into LA pretty beat up. They lost Blackmon for the year yesterday. They have been playing a lot of youngsters. Most likely Darvish for the Pads this evening. With the Phillies fading, the Pads are now on the Dodgers side of the playoff bracket. Against the Braves. That kind of series would definitely help the Dodgers if SD and Atl beat each other up. Same scenario as when LA went to the NLCS last season.
Big Cat comin,
https://www.tiktok.com/t/ZTRmywEsC/
Au revoir Joey Gallows! Do you mind sharing a cab with Mr. Kimbrel?
Matzek is a clown. Maybe he should admit the fact that ATL blew a 3-1 series lead….but I guess that doesnt count huh Tyler????
Our WS last year was beating SF. This year is different….
B&P: I believe the magic number against the Astros is actually 1.
The 2 teams are currently separated by 5 wins with 7 to play for us and 6 for them. A Dodgers win or Astros loss gets the gap to 6 going to the tiebreaker.
The tie breaker when you haven’t met in the regular season is interdivisional play. The Dodgers currently have 19 losses against the NL west and the Astros have 25 losses against the AL west. If the Dodgers lose out and the Astros win out they both would have 25 interdivisional losses (I don’t know what the 2nd tiebreaker is). If the Dodgers win 1 or the Astros lose 1, the Astros would finish with more interdivisional losses, hence making the magic number 1.
https://www.tiktok.com/t/ZTRmf6wfk/
Looked good. Bullpen getting deeper.
Lot’s of good thoughts here Evan. I’m getting used to the no set closer idea. It makes sense if you have multiple guys that don’t wilt under the heat of the ninth inning. The Dodgers have a lot of those guys.
Last night was an example of a real scary bullpen. Just nasty. Phillips, Almonte, Vesia, Kahnle. 1 baserunner and a whole lot of zeros. Any of those guys can pitch in the ninth inning.
Graterol, Ferguson, Kimbrel, Price and Martin didn’t have to pitch. There’s a lot of great options, Kimbrel not withstanding. I think there’s a good chance that Price makes the postseason roster if he’s effective in the last few games. If Treinen comes back, it sure doesn’t look like there’s room for Kimbrel.
I’m sure a lot of people will say Treinen won’t be back, and I’ll have to remind them that they said the same thing about Kahnle and Almonte. Now, it looks like both May and Gonsolin will also be back. It will be interesting how they’ll be used.
Please, no opener. Starters are used to starting. They like the routine. Relievers don’t like to start and Starters don’t like to relieve and fans don’t like it either. The nerds think it’s an advantage. It isn’t. Stop doing it. Stop overmanaging.
So, Kevin Pillar over Joey Gallo? That’s a thought. The defense is even better. The speed on the bases is even better. Pillar, Belli and Mookie would probably be the best defensive outfield in the game. He also hits lefties pretty well. Trayce against righties and Pillar against lefties with CT3 off the bench? I love it!
Last night’s win, plus the Astros’ loss puts the Dodgers’ magic number for home field all the way is now at 2.
The offense looks horrible right now. Players got to play.
The pitching is outstanding.
Before Jansen had the job of closing Mattingly used him in earlier innings when opposing hitters showed as bigger threats than what would likely be in the final inning. Back then the bullpen was a mess aside from Jansen and left Dodgers still in need of someone to close. With Kimbrel there is no such thing as matching up. He just does not fit and threatens more than the opposing team. Can’t depend on luck for a thrown ball to hit it’s target and luck is Kembrel’s ticket. Whatever he’s had in the past isn’t with him anymore and simple luck ain’t the ticket to ride for a championship. Exit one ex closer from the roster. Period.
Gallo should be replaced on the playoff roster by Rios or Outman. Too many strikeouts in key situations. We have enough of those type players in Taylor and Bellinger.
Also Vargas should be on the playoff roster rather than Alberto. He is definitely a better righthanded option. Alberto can be a cheerleader in the dugout.
I think it’s a real possibility Kevin Pillar finds himself on the post season roster. He plays great defense, has decent speed and doesn’t K at the rate Gallo does.
Watching Gallo K four times last night was disappointing to say the least and with the frequent and all too often strikeout AB’s from Gallo, Cody and CT3 reinforces the possibility that Pillar just find himself on the roster