5 Point Offseason Plan

Here’s the offseason plan that the Dodgers should do to return to glory…

1. Get a new Bench Coach
2. Change the Hitting Philosophy
3. Player Personnel – 2 Key Moves
4. Batting Order – Back to Old School
5. Innings Eater – Workhorse Starter

Other than the epic failure of getting embarrassed by little brother this past season, there’ a ton to like about this team.  They generally field very well, especially in the outfield.  The pitching is amazing, especially since it seems that Mark Prior and his gang can take a journeyman pitcher like Tyler Anderson and turn him into a legitimate middle to top-of-the-rotation stud.  They didn’t do too bad with Andrew Heaney either, even if they couldn’t solve the home run puzzle.  The hitting is mostly great, but we can see that they had an Achilles heel and it was exposed in the postseason.

It’s a knee-jerk reaction to say blow it up, one that I initially had after suffering the crushing blow.  Start with the VP of Baseball Operations, Manager, and Coaching Staff sans Prior and the gang, and work your way down to under-performing players, starting with Bellinger, JT and CT3.  Throw the baby out with the bathwater dammit!  I’ve come to my senses since then.  Maybe that’s why there’s a cooling-off period after the World Series before transactions start to occur.

There will be some changes to the roster, that’s a given.  There are free agents that will need to be replaced and older players that need to hang them up.  Then we have some young players on the verge of roster spots and players under contract returning from injuries to plan for.  This is true of every team, but the Dodgers need to do a little more in the change department.  After all, doing the same thing and expecting different results is the universally excepted definition of insanity. 

With that said, here’s my proposal for making the Dodgers World Series bound next season.  I’ll go with reasonable suggestions here as I’m facing the reality that Doc, AF and Stan Kasten aren’t going anywhere.  And I’m not quite yet ready to do a deep dive into the roster and finances.  So, here goes…

Bench Coach

Let’s face it.  Doc’s weakest attribute as the manager of this franchise is his ability to make good decisions as the game unfolds.  It seems to happen every year in the postseason and has been discussed, written about, and criticized ad nauseum.  Yes, I actually get sick to my stomach reliving his past moves and it’s time to get Doc some help with his greatest shortcoming. 

Bob Geren could be the source of the problem.  He came up as a coach under the Billy Beane Athletics and even the A’s couldn’t stand him as manager.  He managed the lowly A’s for 4.5 seasons with a losing record in each of them, except for the team that finished with a 500 record in 2010 and was eventually replaced by Bob Melvin in 2011.  It took Melvin little time turning the A’s around by leading the club to 94 wins the very next season. 

Geren has a reputation for being very good with advanced analytics.  This could explain some of the curious, yet predictable moves that we’ve seen in the past.  It’s time for Doc to get some help reading the game.  Possible Replacements include well regarded John Shoemaker and Travis Barbary, both of whom are managing in the Dodger’s minor league system.  Chase Utley and Justin Turner are other options I would consider as heady baseball players that might give Doc some insight in reading what they see on the field.

Hitting Philosophy

Too many K’s, too much hitting into the shift.  Boring classic American League style of offense, get on base and wait for the big one.  This is probably the most frustrating thing with the Dodgers.  They have a team full of fast, athletic players and yet they do nothing to exploit the offense with these tools.  Brant Brown and his gang of launch angle enthusiasts might be the source of the problem and there are some tell-tale signs that they are.

Brant Brown was promoted to hitting strategist prior to the 2019 season.  Since then, we’ve seen Mookie Betts arrive and after a very successful 2020 season, Mookie’s stats have nosedived.  During Brant’s reign, we’ve heard reports of players picking the brain of the great Albert Pujols for hitting advice and more reports this year with players going to Freddie Freeman for the same.  Gavin Lux credited his resurgence this year to working with his old coach and Uncle Augie Schmidt for his newfound success at the plate.  Why aren’t we hearing about Brant making hitters better?  Why haven’t we seen anyone come in and do better under his tutelage like we see on the pitching side under Mark Prior?

Brant’s hitting strategy is clearly failing us.  We’ve seen Betts come over and get worse.  Trea Turner was arguable worse in his second season with the team.  Albert Pujols clearly had much better results this year, after he returned to the Cardinals.  He couldn’t fix Gallo, Trayce disappeared, Belli is a shell of his former self and Smith’s best year was his first two partial seasons with the club.  It seems like everyone is taking a slow ride downward with more exposure to Brant’s hitting philosophy. 

Key Moves

Of course, some change is going to happen.  Trea Turner may or may not be coming back and JT failed to show up for 2 postseasons in a row now.  He’s the classic year-too-early or year-too-late scenario.  I love JT, but all good things eventually must come to an end.  I would love to see JT promoted to a coaching position or something in the front office to remain a Dodger.  He deserves that for his postseason records alone.  But, I certainly don’t want to see him on the field any longer.  There just aren’t enough DH spots to go around and they just extended Max Muncy, so he isn’t going anywhere.

Max is one of those three true outcome types.  A classic number 5 hitter.  He doesn’t make enough consistent contact to be a cleanup hitter and doesn’t have enough glove to really warrant a spot in the field.  He’s got a ton of power and get’s on base, so it isn’t all bad, but I hate seeing him in the field unless it’s to give 2B or 3B a breather.

I’m not ready to give up on Belli yet.  Another full offseason, a new hitting coach, or the pressure of having James Outman breathe down his neck or a combination of all of the above might be enough to return him to enough of a hitter to warrant keeping his job as a run saving machine in center field.  Add the fact that there just isn’t a lot of good options outside of Brandon Nimmo and I think it isn’t much of a risk to try again for one more season.  Another year removed from injuries and a low bar offensively for a 7-9 hitter makes me think twice about releasing him.   I don’t really care about his salary, especially considering how much money they spend on broken pitchers that spend more time on the 60-day IL than they do on the active roster.

I’m in 100% agreement with Mark that Vargas’ time is now.  He didn’t have a great first callup in totality, but he’s done nothing but hit in the minors and he did it in a very steady fashion.

2018 (18) years old RK-A 330 BA

2019 (19) A-A+ 308 BA

2020 – The lost season

2021 – A+-AA 319 BA

2022 – AAA 304 BA

Every single year, he hit 300+ and never got very close to 100 K’s.  He’s exactly the type of hitter that this team needs in the lineup on a daily basis.  But, he isn’t the big right handed power bat that the lineup desperately needs.

If the Dodgers make one free agent splash this year, they need that big right handed bat to put in the cleanup spot right between Freddie and Max.  Or, better yet…

Old School Batting Order

100 years of baseball history told us to put your fastest player with on base skills up top.  A contact hitter second, best all-around hitter 3^rd, best power who can also hit 4^th.  High on base with power 5^th and fill out 6-8 with next three best hitters and put some speed at the very bottom as a “second leadoff hitter” if you will. 

Now the nerds took over the sport and we see the likes of power hitters Schwarber, Ohtani and our own Mookie Betts batting first.  Even Ray Charles can see there’s a lot of wasted RBI with all those solo shots. Could it be the nerds are wrong?  Here’s a little secret I would like to share with you about computers as an IT professional of over 20 years.  It’s known as “Crap in, crap out”.  The output you get from the computer is only as good as the data you put into it and rules (algorithm) you use to produce the output.  Like religion, the computer isn’t infallible because like the word of God, humans are involved as the middleman to deliver those words.  Anything can happen during the translation.

With that said, in the age of analytics, RBI totals are way down.  2022 had just 13 players reach the 100 RBI plateau.  Sure, it fluctuates from year to year and external factors like steroids and juiced balls have a lot to do with it.  But, if the nerds were actually adding value, how would you explain such a measly total in the current season when analytics rule all aspects of baseball?

Let’s put together a lineup with a more traditional approach, only with current players under team control.

Lux 2B or SS L – He meets the definition of a traditional leadoff hitter.  He’s got speed and get’s on base.  Even at a higher clip than Mookie Betts this past season.  Allow him to run as much as he wants and he’ll probably look a lot like Davey Lopes in his early years before the man power developed.

Vargas 3B R – He hit 300+ each year in the minors without ever striking out 100 times.  He’s also been known to go the other way, which is advantageous with a runner at first or second.

Freddie 1B L – Tons of hits and a good amount of power.  A prototypical old-school 3-hitter.

Betts RF R – Led the team in homers and can mash the ball over the fence.  Time to transition him from table setter to RBI Machine with plenty of protection before and after him in the lineup.

Mad Max DH L – Plenty of pop for a 5 hitter and gets on base a lot.

Will Smith C R – He has the next-best power for a right-handed hitter on the team and doesn’t strike out as much as Max.  I think he fits perfectly in the 6 hole.

Bellinger CF L– Let’s just pretend he’ll improve upon last year, like he improved last year upon the year before.  He’ll K a lot, but he’ll hit his fair share of doubles and homers.  You can do a lot worse if Belli can be just a little bit better.

Now, all you need to do is figure out a left fielder and another middle infielder to slot in at 8 and 9. 

Internal Candidates

Michael Busch 2B/LF  L– He hit .274/.365/.516/.881 splitting time at AA and AAA this year with 444 AAA ABs out of 552.  He had 38 Doubles and 32 homers to go along with 118 Runs and 108 RBI in 142 games.  He struck out 167 times against 74 walks. 

Jacob Amaya SS  R He hit .261/.369/.427/.795 in 294 AAA ABs and 476 total.  He’s not the run producer that Busch is, but his on base skills are solid walking 81 times against just 112 K’s.  He’s got some pop with 20 Doubles and 17 homers.  He had just 85 runs and 71 RBI, a solid hitter with a propensity for contact.

Jason Martin OF L Can handle all three outfield spots and he’s got some good pop for a player of his stature.  At just 5’ 9”, he still managed to put up 32 homers and 25 doubles at age 26, a ripe age for a prospect.  But, at least he delivered in a big way playing entirely at AAA this past season slashing .285/.374/.564/.938.  He could be Andrew Toles all over again.  Yes, he’s another lefty hitter and yes he had 135 K’s.

James Outman OF L He’s a human highlight reel in CF.  He dives, leaps and climbs fences.  He can stick in CF based on his glove-work alone.  He had a “caveman” swing when the Dodgers signed him and has since transformed his swing into a legitimate weapon.  As a result, he’s having success at the highest level of the minors and his cup of coffee wasn’t half bad either.  Like Martin, he’s old for a prospect, just about a half a year younger than his AAA teammate.  And yes, he’s also left-handed. And yes, he K’s to the tune of 152 times against 70 walks.  He split time at AA and AAA with most of it in Tulsa.  But, he produced at the plate with 31 doubles and 31 homers and a robust slash line of .294/.393/.586/.978.

Eddie Rios 3B/1B L We all know Eddie by now.  He’s got prodigious power with a home run rate with the best of them.  The best we can hope for is Max Muncy with more doubles and a slightly better glove.  He had shoulder surgery and had just 92 ABs before injuring his hammy, never to be heard from again.  He put up solid stats in AAA in an injury filled recover year.  Yes, he bats Lefty and yes, he K’s too much 66 times in 189 ABs at AAA this year.  His slash line was solid, but not as good as past seasons.  .259/.339/.492/.832.  Eddie’s getting old, 29 years next year.  For reference, Cody will play his age 27 season in 2023.

Chris Taylor Everything but catcher R.  Chris just put up his worst season, since his first season with the Dodgers checking in at .221/.304/.373/.677.  He’ll be 32 next year and I sure hope to see a turnaround to get him closer to his career line of .256/.332/.433/.765.  I’d much rather that he return to a utility role than as an everyday positon player.  But, he certainly could handle a full time gig in a pinch.  He stuck out a whopping 160 times in just 402 AB’s this year.  For reference, Belli had less in more ABs.

The Verdict

We have the personnel right now to field a competitive team next season while also having a lot of money coming off the books at the same time.  It would seem a waste to not spend it.   

Andrew Friedman said there’s talent at upper levels, some will be ready when the season starts and some will serve as depth.  Some foreshadowing occurred this past season with Outman and Vargas both getting a cup of coffee.  It’s pretty risky relying on prospects to fill holes on the big league roster even for the highest-regarded prospects. 

Vargas is probably ready to take over a spot right now, so I threw him out there at 3B, his best position, to take over for JT, but Left Field is certainly an option.  Is he going to produce the .278/.350/.438/.788 that JT put together?  I would think there’s as good a shot for Vargas put up those numbers, maybe a better chance than a 38 YO JT would.  I think it’s time to pass that baton to Vargas unless you can sign that righty cleanup hitter who also plays better defense.  Hi Nolan!

I’m betting that Belli is on the upswing and Outman will be a legitimate fallback plan if he isn’t especially after seeing that link that STB posted.  CF will be one of the hardest places to find value with the upside and defense that Belli brings.  Nimmo is probably the only option that would make sense.  I wouldn’t want to risk cutting Belli and striking out with Nimmo. Spend the money elseware to improve the team.

You certainly could start the season with Martin, Outman and CT3 competing for playing time in LF.  All of them will provide very good defense and hopefully, one of the bats will step up.  However, the lineup is getting very left-handed and strikeout prone with Belli/Martin/CT3/Outman taking 2 outfield spots.  CT3 is better suited to be a utility player than an everyday left fielder in my opinion.  He’ll also serve as insurance against injuries of if the kids don’t work out.

Realistically, Busch and Amaya and possibly even Outman could all use more time in AAA, serving as depth for the upcoming season.  Amaya has a huge reputation for being a very good to great defender at SS.  If he can get on base and make a lot of contact, it might be worth it to have him take over at SS while improving the overall infield defense.  But, I don’t think it’s prudent to start the season with a Shortstop that hasn’t proven he can hit enough to stick much longer in the minors and expect it all to change at the MLB level.

It’s really hard to ignore Busch’s Runs, RBI, Doubles and Homers at second base, but 167 K’s shows that he might not be quite ready.  In fact, Amaya and Busch will serve the Dodgers well as minor league depth this upcoming season.  It sure looks like Outman, Martin and Vargas are closest to take the next step forward and with two of them being left-handed hitting outfielders, the Dodgers would do well to sign or trade for a right handed bat, preferably one with some pop that doesn’t strike out a ton.  That could be Trea Turner or Nolan Aranado.  I might be more willing to deal with 150+ K’s if was attached to 62 homers.

Innings Eater

We really could have used an innings eater need this past season.  Having a reliable arm that can rest a tired bullpen is a valuable commodity especially when you run into a short start or a bullpen game.  Taxing the bullpen could hurt you for a series or longer in the regular season, but it can kill you in the postseason as we just witnessed. This is precisely why we signed Trevor Bauer in the first place. 

None of the Dodgers pitchers was of the workhorse variety this year.  Tyler Anderson was best with 178.2 innings in 28 starts.  Very close to a 200 IP workload had he made 31-33 starts like most top-of-the-rotation arms.  It’s curious why he could only pitch 5 innings in a 2 hit-shutout game. 

Going into the offseason, the Dodgers have close to a full rotation.  A lot of that hinges on Trevor Bauer, whether he opts into his contract and whether he has to serve any more time in purgatory.  After Trevor we still have a good staff to start the season with…

Clayton Kershaw will most likely be back, be good in the regular season, and go on the IL 2-3 times.  He’ll provide time for some minor leaguers to earn MLB experience while covering his IL stints.  I see this as an advantage because he’ll provide opportunities for the rookies without having to rely on them, win a lot of regular season games, and be a solid number 4 in the posteason.

Julio Urias is entering what could be his final season with the Dodgers.  I really love this kid.  We watched him grow from a kid to a young man that’s been in the Cy Young conversation the last two seasons.  While he may not be an innings eater, he’s very close to one and very effective while he’s on the bump, limiting runs and picking up wins. 

Dustin May will undoubtedly find his way next year.  He was on the verge of really breaking out when his elbow failed him.  Together with Julio, they’re a young two-headed monster at the top of the rotation.  Just don’t count on him to toss 200 innings as a 25-year-old coming off Tommy John surgery.

Tony Gonsolin was great this year until he fizzled out after more than doubling his innings-pitched output from any year in career so far.  He did get to 130, but how much more can we expect from a guy that seems to land on the IL every year?  It’s a safe bet he won’t come near 200 next season.  It’s a much safer bet that he’ll wind up on the IL at some point.  I love Tony when he’s healthy, I just don’t trust him to be healthy, especially for an entire season.

Danny Duffy, believe it or not, is under team control for next season due to the club option that we hold for the soon to be 34 year old.  He hasn’t pitched in a year and half, but he was pretty damn good the last time he pitched in 2021.  He’ll be the next project for Mark Prior and his gang.

The good news is this is a very good offseason for starting pitchers if you’re looking to fix a former very good starting pitcher.  Maybe Prior and company can work their magic with Taijuan Walker, Michael Wacha, Jameson Taillon, Noah Syndergaard, Zach Eflin or Nathan Eovaldi.  Or, maybe just bring back Anderson or continue working on the Heaney experiment.  Unfortunately, only Anderson looks like he could be an innings eater out of that bunch.

The Plan

You’re going to hear this all off-season from me.  Make a right-handed masher as the very top priority and either retain Trevor Bauer or find another guy that has a good chance to be a quality innings eater.

So, go ahead and offer arbitration to Belli and give the QO to Kershaw.  Fill out the rest of the bench with Barnes, CT3, Rios, Outman or Martin and possibly even bring back Alberto on that 2 Million dollar option.  Phillips should graduate to closer, so don’t go spending money on one and by God, don’t even think about bringing Kenley back!  Jimmy Nelson has a club option and Treinen, Vesia, Ferguson, V-Gone and Hudson will all be back as well.  There’s plenty of “leverage guys” to choose from so, don’t get cute and make Doc manage a “closer by committee” situation.  We don’t want another game 4.   

The core of this team is still very formidable and there isn’t a lot that needs to be addressed.  Don’t throw the baby out with the bathwater.  The lineup with Nolan Arenado would look awesome. 

Lux SS L

Betts RF R

Freeman 1B L

Arenado 3B R

Muncy DH L

Smith C R

Bellinger CF L

Vargas 2B R

Outman LF L

If Vargas fails at second base, you can put him in LF, move Outman to right, and let Mookie handle second.

The “Let the Kids Play” lineup looks pretty damn good too.  But, you can see the problem as the lineup turns over.

Lux SS L

Vargas 3B R

Freeman 1B L

Betts RF R

Muncy DH L

Smith C R

Bellinger CF L

Outman LF L

Busch 2B L

4 Lefties in a row in the lineup and a Catcher as one of three righties looks really bad against left-handed pitching.  No doubt, Doc and the gang will go to platoons as the solution taking away AB’s from developing players and giving them to the likes of Alberto and CT3.  This is not my preferred method to develop left-handed hitters.

The dearth of offensively productive center fielders is almost as bad as available right-handed power.  Nolan would be a fool not to explore free agency.  If not, hopefully we’ll see a good old-fashioned trade this offseason if we’re willing to package Busch and an arm or two in order to get that bat we need.