5 Out of 4 People Struggle With Math
There is still a lot of chatter that the Dodgers want Nolan Arenado, Francisco Lindor, or Trevor Bauer. I am of the opinion that at the start of the 2021 season, none of those players will be with the Dodgers. If the Dodgers were to trade for Lindor or Arenado, they would have to trade some pretty good prospects (actually really, really good prospects) in order to get either one .
There is still a lot of chatter that the Dodgers want Nolan Arenado, Francisco Lindor, or Trevor Bauer. I am of the opinion that at the start of the 2021 season, none of those players will be with the Dodgers.
If the Dodgers were to trade for Lindor or Arenado, they would have to trade some pretty good prospects (actually… really, really good prospects) in order to get either one. Then, they would be on the hook for $199 million more with Arenado, or facing paying Lindor $300+ Million for 10 years.
Francisco Lindor
I am going to suggest if you think Andrew Friedman will trade the requisite prospects NOW for Lindor, that you are not really paying attention. In Lindor’s case, he will be a free agent in a year. The Dodgers currently have a shortstop, who is pretty good, so if the Dodgers really want Lindor and are prepared to pay him big dollars to sign, why gut the farm to do it? Just wait a year and sign him as a free agent.
You might say, “But that’s what they did with Mookie Betts.” That IS what they did with Betts, but that was a “one off.” A “one off” is something that is done, made, or happening only once, not as part of a regular sequence. Friedman realized he was missing a piece to a championship team and identified Mookie Betts as that piece. It was a bold move yo give up Alex Verdugo, who is a very good plyer in his own right, but the Dodgers needed a star who was a leader.
Cody Bellinger, Corey Seager and Will Smith are good to great players, but not “vocal leaders.” Justin Turner and Clayton Kershaw are leaders but in a different way. The Dodgers are now “Mookie’s team.” They needed “that guy.” They don’t need another “that guy” and make no mistake about it, Lindor is “that guy.” I am sure they could co-exist on a team, but sometimes a pack can only have one “alpha dog.”
The Dodgers are currently the “odds on favorites” to win the 2021 World Series. Andrew Friedman is intent on building a “sustainable model” team that can win year-in-and-year out. To trade for Lindor now would limit that sustainability. The Dodgers player development is exceptional and we hear good reports about Busch, Hoese, Lux, Ruiz, Gray, and Rios. If the Dodger want to keep Corey Seager (and I believe they do), he will have to get a contract worth $25 to $30 Million a year. The same is true with Bellinger and Buehler.
If Clayton wants to continue his career, then the Dodgers will have to pony up $20 plus Million for him and Urias will have to be paid as well. By 2023, the Dodgers could likely have $100+ million tied up in three players (Betts, Seager, and Bellinger). Lindor had a bad year in 2020, but if he bounces back and has an All-Star season in 2021, he will get that $350 million deal. I see Seager and Bellinger being a notch below that. Could the Dodgers make financial room for Lindor? Yes, but I do not see them trading for him this year. If they get him, it will be as a free agent… and that is a year away. Forbes has a great article on the Indians trading Lindor.
Trevor Bauer
Trevor Bauer is another story. He won the Cy Young Award in 2020 with a 1.73 ERA and an otherworldly 0.795 WHIP. However in 2019, his ERA was 4.48! In 2018, he had a nice season with a 2.21 ERA, but in his previous six seasons prior to 2018, the ERA’s he put up were in the 4.00’s, 5.00’s and 6.00’s! Has he just “suddenly figured it out?” He’s a Driveline Believer and maybe he has just figured it out, but you have to at least have some trepidation that he could be due for another “so-so” season.
Bauer has said that he wants to play on one year deals, but money talks and someone will give him a multi-year deal… and he will take it! It won’t be the Dodgers. Trevor Bauer also say that he’s only good at two things: “throwing baseballs and pissing people off.” He said that himself in an article in Sports Illustrated. The story also goes into detail about his unconventional training methods, which include pumping electricity into his brain.
Bauer also has the reputation as a “poor teammate” and while some love him, others hate him! He would be a huge risk I would be unwilling to take in what is one of the best clubhouses in baseball. I do not think Trevor Bauer will ever be a Dodger.
Nolan Arenado
If the Rockies trade Nolan, there will be few teams in on it. Not many teams can afford to pay him. The Dodgers could afford to pay him… and forget about the Rockies chipping in some money. That’s ain’t happening! If Arenado opts out of his contract after next season, the Rockies will only get a draft pick, so the Rockies may be inclined to trade him IF they can do better than get a draft pick.
I am not convinced that Arenado will him in LA like he has in Colorado. In fact, he won’t – the only question is “How far will he drop off?” The only way I see this happening is that the Rookies would agree to take Gavin Lux, Mitch White and Edwin Rios for Nolan. Nolan would still be a Gold Glove Third-Baseman, but he’s not the #3 hitter the Dodgers need. At best, he’s a #5 hitter in LA… and I am not even convinced of that.
Can Cody Bellinger be that #3 hitter? Maybe, but that would leave three LH hitters in a row with Seager, Bellinger and Muncy at #2, #3 and #4. Kris Bryant would be a better #3 hitter and would cost less than Arenado. To me, it makes more sense to re-sign Justin Turner and trade Gavin Lux for one year of Kris Bryant. Lux would be an hour away from his Kenosha, Wisconsin home, and might be more relaxed.
I am not down on Lux, but Bryant is former MVP playing for a new contract after a down year. I could see him putting up monster numbers! JT and Rios could platoon at 3B and if the DH is back then both could play. The Dodgers would have a more devastating lineup with Turner, Rios, and Bryant than with Arenado. If the DH is back, look at this lineup:
- Betts RF (R)
- Seager SS (L)
- Bryant LF (R)
- Muncy 1B (L)
- Turner DH (R)
- Bellinger CF (L)
- Smith C (R)
- Rios 3B (L)
- Taylor 2B (R)
That is a very balanced, powerful lineup! No matter how bad fans want Arenado, Andrew Friedman is going to do what is best for the team. Stay tuned… in about a week, the stove will heat up… Bauer, Arenado and Lindor do not add up, but 5 out of 4 people struggle with math!
Good News
Tommy Lasorda is improving and is off the ventilator. It turns out that the Big Dodger in the Sky wasn’t ready for him and the Devil was afraid he would take over! Get Well Tommy!
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Discussion (62)
Disagree, not disagreeable
I can understand why it is necessary to create rumors, this part of the season is very boring, there is no real news, there is not much movement, I also understand why every supposed trade is with the Dodgers, they are the best team.
But realistically, I don’t see any of that as a possible reality, so Arenado, Lindor, Bauer, Bryant, etc. will have to wait at least a year for a chance to belong to the Dodgers.
What I think might be a more ” real ” reality would be signing Turner for a year with a second year option, signing Hendricks, Treinen and maybe some right-hander bat for the bench, and that’s all, don’t expect a great sign, a great move, or will be disappointed ….
This season they did not make a trade and they were champions.
You don’t need to make any changes, all you have to do is replace those who will leave, and the players needed already belong to the organization.
Hell, they could trade for 1 year of Bryant and then sign Arenado in free agency. I took a quick look at Arenado’s career splits and low and behold, he has more at bats as a number 3 hitter than any other spot in the lineup. He’s a number 3 hitter Mark. I know you’ll say “Coors Field” and my response is DJLM. Then, you’ll say Vinny Castilla and I’ll retort Matt Holliday. As far as the Alpha Dog argument, I’ll just point to Jeter and A-Rod.
All I know is that we have a hole to fill and if we want to keep up with the Braves, we can’t afford to not to plug it. If the Dodgers want to be a dynasty, they will open the checkbook, dust off a few prospects and get the job done on a dude that can fill the hole that JT leaves us.
The Dodgers got a gift last season. When Price opted out and when they traded Stripling, they dodged the CBT that they were going to get hit with if COVID didn’t happen. I’m wondering how many teams with money to spend and are in the position to compete are in need of a 3rd baseman.
Wouldn’t it be something if the Rockies would get it done for a pitching heavy package centered around Gray and White? That would mean that the Puig trade wound up netting us Betts and Arenado. That would be pure genius!
Very good reasoning and I agree that peo need to see how AF plans to build a sustainable winner. With that said I believe you can not sign all the good players you bring up once they hit free agency. You have to have new players to bring up to replace them, just not too many at once.
So I believe that Bellinger needs to show if he is a professional hitter or a masher lest he be the one they do retain.
It’s hard to argue with your logic, Mark. So I won’t!
Getting back to Lux for a moment, how do you go from “can’t miss” to “trade bait” in less than one year? Is this a head-thing? Will he get it straightened out and come roaring back? He wasn’t the number one prospect for nothing. I know that some players have a hard time transitioning to the bigs, but still, I don’t think we have a large enough sample size yet to see what Lux can really do. Given that Kike may be gone, and in another year, CT3, too, isn’t it worth trying to fix whatever is ailing him? If Spring Training starts on time next year, it would give him enough time for a reset. Given that the Dodgers are second-to-none in player development, I wouldn’t discount the possibility that he will yet become our starting 2B in 2021.