As every semi-lucid baseball fan knows, next week is the 91st MLB All Star game. The results are close with the AL winning 45 games, NL winning 43 games with 2 ties. The AL has runs scored 373 runs and the NL has scored 370 runs. The AL is currently riding a 7 game winning streak.
But that is not the only MLB event that is happening next week, and I am not talking about the Home Run Derby. July 11 – 13 marks the dates for the MLB Rule 4 Amateur Draft for 2021. I know it is not for everyone, but I am an avid follower of the MLB Rule 4 draft, and have been since the late 1960’s when high school classmates were drafted.
While I am very certain that the Dodger brass can walk and chew gum at the same time, most organizations are wrapped up in the draft while the trading deadline is 2.5 weeks from the end of the draft, and not all selling teams have been identified. There will be plenty of time to fully assess both the supply and demand for the Dodgers before the deadline. As is the case every year, half of the LAD fan contingency will say they did well while the other half will complain. But back to the draft
The Rule 4 draft has been around since 1965 and this year has been reduced to 20 rounds from the 40 called for in the Collective Bargaining Agreement. Last year the total rounds were five.
In the past, there have been three separate drafts held each year. The June draft, which was by far the largest, involved new high school graduates, as well as eligible college players who had just finished their season. It started in 1965, and continues to this day.
A second draft was held in January for high school and college players who graduated in the winter. Finally, there was a draft in August for players who participated in amateur summer leagues. The August draft was eliminated after only two years, while the January draft lasted until 1986.
The Rule 4 draft was quite often referred to as the June amateur draft, however, not considering 2020, this is the first year the draft will be held in July. This year the draft schedule has changed to hold the event in July, following the conclusion of the College World Series and most state level high school championships, and to coincide with the All Star Weekend festivities. This change will remain until the next CBA. I am guessing that the draft will not be a major priority being discussed at the next CBA negotiations so perhaps it will stay intact. With the reduction of the MiLB teams, the draft does not figure to increase back to 40 rounds, and there is of course the perceived need to limit the additional playing time for players for their first summer pro experience, so July seems appropriate.
The pools for all 30 clubs total $265,769,400 in a Draft that has been reduced to 20 rounds from the 40 called for in the Collective Bargaining Agreement. Last year, the industry spent a total of $238,092,829 on a five-round Draft. In 2019, teams set a record with $316,560,984 in Draft bonuses, including $55,896,284 after the 10th round.
Teams that exceed their bonus pool face a penalty. Clubs that outspend their allotment by 0-5 percent pay a 75 percent tax on the overage. At higher thresholds, clubs lose future picks: a first-rounder and a 75 percent tax for surpassing their pool by between 5-10 percent; a first- and a second-rounder and a 100 percent tax for between 10-15 percent; and two first-rounders and a 100 percent tax for going more than 15 percent over their pool allotment.
The Cardinals, Cubs, Dodgers and Giants have exceeded their bonus allotment every time, and 15 of the 30 teams exceeded their pools last year.
This year’s bonus pool allotments:
Pirates: $14,394,000
Tigers: $14,253,800
Rangers: $12,641,000
Reds: $11,905,700
Orioles: $11,829,300
Red Sox: $11,359,600
D-backs: $11,271,900
Royals: $10,917,700
Rockies: $10,543,900
Brewers: $10,063,400
Marlins: $9,949,800
Angels: $9,295,900
Mets: $9,026,300
Nationals: $8,770,000
Mariners: $8,526,000
Phillies: $8,295,000
Cardinals: $8,167,100
Twins: $8,101,400
Giants: $8,070,600
Rays: $7,955,800
Indians: $7,398,800
Yankees: $6,943,700
Padres: $6,812,300
Cubs: $6,779,400
White Sox: $6,618,600
Braves: $6,326,300
Athletics: $6,188,900
Blue Jays: $5,775,900
Dodgers: $4,646,700
Astros: $2,940,600 (No first or second round pick)
The Dodgers bonus allotment per round is:
1st Round – Pick 29 – $2,424,600
3rd Round – Pick101 – $577,000
4th Round – Pick 131 – $430,800
5th Round – Pick 162 – $318,200
6th Round – Pick 192 – $247,000
7th Round – Pick 222 – $194,400
8th Round – Pick 252 – $162,700
9th Round – Pick 282 – $149,800
10th Round – Pick 312 – $142,200
As a point of information, the teams are not limited to the bonus allotments per round. Those allocations are determined only for the calculation of the overall bonus allotment. The only limit is the overall bonuses paid. The Dodgers do not have a second round pick because of the signing of Trevor Bauer. That free agent signing has the makings of a major disaster.
The draft rounds are as follows:
Round 1 – July 11 (MLB Network / ESPN) – 7:07 PM (ET)
Round 2 – 10 – July 12 (MLB.com) – 1:00 PM (ET)
Rounds 11-20 – July 13 (MLB.com) – Noon (ET)
POTENTIAL TOP TEN DRAFT PICKS
Three top HS SS :
Marcelo Mayer – Eastlake HS (Chula Vista, CA) (Presumptive Overall #1 to Pittsburgh)
Jordan Lawlar – Dallas Jesuit Prep
Brady House – Winder-Barrow (GA)
Two potential top 10 college SS
Kahlil Watson – Wake Forest
Matt McLain – UCLA
Top College Pitchers:
Jack Leiter (RHP) – Vanderbilt
Kumar Rocker (RHP) – Vanderbilt
Next – Ty Madden (RHP) – Texas
Top HS Pitcher:
Jackson Jobe (RHP) Heritage Hall (Oklahoma City)
Other Potential Top Ten Picks –
Henry Davis – C – Louisville
Sal Frelick – OF – Boston College
Colton Cowser – OF Sam Houston St.
Perhaps the player with the most helium at this time is Mississippi State’s RHP, Will Bednar. What he did on NCAA’s biggest stage (College World Series) was outstanding. He started three games in the CWS and Mississippi St. won all three, including the final game in a 9-0 victory over Vanderbilt. His pitching line in all three games:
6/20 – 6.0 IP, 1 hit, o runs, 1BB, 15 K, 2-1 Win over Texas
For this game, Bednar bested a potential top ten RHP from Texas, Ty Madden.
6/26 – 6.1 IP, 4 hits, 3 runs (all earned), 2 BB, 7 K, 4-3 Win over Texas
6/30 – 6.0 IP, 0 hits, 0 runs, 3 BB, 4 K, 9-0 over Vanderbilt – NCAA Champs
Overall – 18.1 IP, 5 hits, 3 runs, 6 BB, 26 K. I guess Will Bednar can pitch on a big stage.
Bednar will not be around win the Dodgers select #29. Who are the Dodgers targeting? As usual, Billy Gasparino, the Dodgers Director of Amateur Scouting, is tight-lipped. There is not a reputable mock draft guru who has any comfortable belief as to who the Dodgers covet. There have been some very strange prospects aligned with LAD over the past several months.
The latest mock drafts Dodger selections for the first round:
Baseball America – Frank Mozzicato, LHP, East Catholic HS, (Manchester, Conn)
Sporting News – Chase Petty, RHP, Mainland HS, (Linwood, N.J.)
The Athletic (Keith Law) – Gunnar Hoglund, RHP, Ole Miss
ESPN (Kiley McDaniel) – Ryan Cusick, RHP, Wake Forest
Bleacher Report (Joel Reuter) – Ryan Cusick, RHP, Wake Forest
MLB.com (Jim Callis and Jonathan Mayo) – Matheu Nelson, C, Florida State
Other players who have been tied to the Dodgers:
Peyton Stovall – 2B – Haughton HS
Lonnie White – OF – Malvern Prep
Michael McGreevy – RHP – UCSB
Jaden Hill – RHP – LSU
Harry Ford – C – North Cobb HS (GA)
Joe Mack – C – Williamsville East HS (NY)
Fangraphs only mocked through the first 17 picks, and after that, it was anybody’s guess.
With Keibert Ruiz and Diego Cartaya blocking the catcher pipeline, why would the Dodgers target another catcher in the first round? As Jim Callis/Jonathan Mayo at MLB.com wrote: “The Dodgers likely will take the best bat on the board, be it college or high school. That could be a whole host of hitters, with Nelson and his power from behind the plate certainly on the list.” The Dodgers do not look so much at position but more as to who is the best player on the board at that time. That philosophy/strategy seems to have served them well. I think the one time that thought process did not serve them well was in 2017. Jeren Kendall was supposed to be a top ten draftee. Before his junior year, he was considered a potential 1/1 pick. Instead he dropped to 1/23 to the Dodgers, and they bit.
Bonus dollars will also be a key metric. The Dodgers are limited in their total allotment. Only the Astros have less dollars, and without a 2nd round pick, the LAD bonus pool is diminished. The last time the Dodgers were in this predicament was in 2018 ($5,288,200). When their first round selection came around, the Dodgers selected High School RHP JT Ginn and offered him $2,275,800, but were not willing to go over that number as it may have affected the remainder of the draft. Ginn did not sign. It was rumored that Ginn wanted way above slot dollars of $3MM. The next selection in the draft was LHP Shane McClanahan who signed for the $2,230,100 with the Rays. I could not believe that McClanahan had fallen to the end of the first round, and I was hoping the Dodgers would snap him up. As it turned out, the Rays drafted the top two LHP in that draft, Matthew Liberatore and Shane McClanahan.
There was some speculation that the Dodgers just did not want to spend that kind of money and selected Ginn knowing they would never offer him enough to get him to sign. Rumors and speculation. On the record, Gasparino said LAD wanted to sign Ginn, but they had a bonus limitation concern and would not overspend on Ginn. They believed that the offer to Ginn was more than fair. Two years later, he signed as a draft eligible sophomore with the Mets for $2.9MM. The Dodgers second round pick was Michael Grove who they signed for an over slot of $1.23MM after TJ surgery. 2018 may go down as one of the worst LAD drafts. More on that in the future.
One aspect of the draft to follow is the number of quality pitchers who have just had TJ surgery and will be selected in this draft: RHP Gunnar Hoglund (Ole Miss), RHP Jaden Hill (LSU), LHP Mo Hanley (Adrian College – Division III). The Dodgers have been sometimes successful with drafting pitchers after TJ surgery and sometimes not so much: Caleb Ferguson – 2014 – 38th round Caleb Ferguson; Walker Buehler – 2015 – 1st round; Jordan Sheffield – 2016 – 1st round CB pick; Michael Grove – 2018 – 2nd round. There are those who believe (including The Athletic’s Keith Law) that the Dodgers will target Ole Miss’ RHP Gunnar Hoglund, who was penciled in as a top ten pick before the surgery. Remnants of Walker Buehler? Jaden Hill has also been on the Dodgers rumor list. He was also a potential top ten prospect, but not to the degree of Hoglund. He would be a reach at #29. However, with a potential lowering of the bonus offer, who knows. OTOH, LHP Mo Hanley could be a late pick target as he was never going to be considered a top round selection prospect, but had a lot of notice for a Division III prospect until he had the surgery.
Scouting reports of the current Dodger draft prospects as mocked by “THE EXPERTS”.
Frank Mozzicato, LHP, East Catholic HS, (Manchester, Conn):
Ht: 6-3 | Wt: 180 | B-T: L-L
Commit/Drafted: Connecticut
Age At Draft: 18.1
BA Grade: 55 | Risk: Extreme
Fastball: 55 | Curveball: 60 | Changeup: 50 | Control: 50
Baseball America ranking #42
“Mozzicato didn’t pitch at big national events last summer, which kept him under the radar. At the time, he was mostly throwing in the mid-to-upper 80s with good feel for a curveball and looked like a safe bet to get to Connecticut. Instead, his stock skyrocketed this spring, when he rattled off a stretch of no-hitters in four straight starts and ended the regular season averaging 21.7 K/9. One of the younger players in the class (he turns 18 on June 19), Mozzicato has plenty of projection arrows pointing up, with easy arm action, a low-effort delivery and more space to fill out his projectable frame. That should help him add to a fastball that has trended up this spring, with Mozzicato now sitting at 88-91 mph and reaching 93. His separator is a plus curveball, a 74-80 mph pitch that’s one of the best breaking balls in the country from a high school lefty. It’s a tight spinning pitch with top-to-bottom action, sharp bite and good depth to rack up whiffs. Mozzicato already manipulates speeds on his curveball based on the situation like a veteran, with an ability to consistently execute and command the pitch well beyond his years. Mozzicato mostly carves through hitters with his fastball and curve, but he has shown feel for a low-80s changeup that could develop into an average or better pitch. Mozzicato’s pitchability is advanced for his age but he needs to improve his fastball command, though his athleticism and repeatable delivery should help him do so. Mozzicato doesn’t have the present velocity of some other pitchers, but his combination of youth, delivery, physical projection and a knockout curveball have catapulted him into Day One consideration.”
Chase Petty, RHP, Mainland HS (Linwood, NJ):
Ht: 6-0 | Wt: 185 | B-T: R-R
Commit/Drafted: Florida
Age At Draft: 18.3
BA Grade: 55 | Risk: Extreme
Fastball: 70 | Slider: 60 | Changeup: 55 | Control: 45
Baseball America ranking #29
“Petty is the most famous prep pitcher in the country thanks to a fastball that has been up to 102 mph in a bullpen and 101 in a game this spring. He’s one of the hardest-throwing high school pitchers ever, up there with Reds righthander Hunter Greene, who went No. 2 overall in 2017 and also touched 102 mph. In games, Petty’s fastball has sat 93-96 mph at times and mid-to-upper 90s in other starts. He complements his fastball with an out pitch in his slider, which has tight spin and sharp bite at its best, though at times it has flattened out on him. It’s a pitch that flashes plus and shows glimpses of a potential plus-plus pitch in the future. Petty doesn’t need his changeup against high school hitters so he rarely throws it, but he has shown feel for that pitch too. Petty’s raw stuff suggests considerable upside, but high school righthanders are a risky group as a whole and Petty has several red flags that give teams reservations. He’s a good athlete but it’s not an easy, fluid delivery, with considerable effort to his arm action and mechanics. His fastball control has also been erratic, with a tendency to yank the ball well out of the strike zone, especially to his glove side. That causes him to fall behind in too many counts and might lead to a high walk rate early in his pro career. Petty’s slider misses a lot of bats, though some scouts have said his fastball doesn’t lead to as many swings and misses as they would expect given his velocity. He rarely throws his changeup and it’s inconsistent, but some scouts think it has above-average potential too. Petty’s profile is similar to Lance McCullers from when he was in high school touching triple-digits with a good slider but also had reliever risk and pitchability questions. If Petty proves durable and can rein in his control, his upside is obvious, but his risk factors are ones that teams weigh more heavily now than they did even a few years ago.”
Gunnar Hoglund, RHP, Ole Miss:
Ht: 6-4 | Wt: 220 | B-T: L-R
Commit/Drafted: Pirates ’18 (1s)
Age At Draft: 21.6
RapScore: 50
BA Grade: 55 | Risk: Extreme
Fastball: 55 | Slider: 55 | Changeup: 55 | Control: 70
Baseball America ranking #19
“A supplemental first-round pick of the Pirates in 2018 after he went 7-0, 0.27 at Fivay High in Hudson, Fla., Hoglund’s command has long stood out. It made him an immediate contributor at Ole Miss, and it has helped him be one of the best pitchers in the Southeastern Conference in 2020 and 2021. Hoglund’s 2021 season came to a premature end when he blew out his pitching elbow in his May 7 start against Texas A&M. His rehab from Tommy John surgery means he’ll be sidelined until midway through 2022, and it likely ended any chance he had of being a top-10 pick. But Hoglund’s body of work (154 innings in three years at Ole Miss) gives teams a lot of comfort with who Hoglund is—a relatively safe starting pitcher with plus command who has the ability to throw three pitches for strikes no matter what the count. Hoglund came into 2021 viewed as a starter likely to be taken in the back of the first round, but he quickly showed improved stuff. Hoglund had touched 95 mph going back to high school, but he generally sat 90-92. This year, he sat 92-94 mph. His slider got a little harder and sharper as well. Hoglund has shown he can spot his above-average fastball to the arm side or glove side, but he generally aims to keep his fastball away—he’ll work glove side to righthanders and arm side to lefties. He consistently wins at 0-0 in the count, getting ahead which means he can then attack righties with his above-average, 80-84 mph slider, again generally staying away. Lefties have to worry about his low-80s, above-average changeup, but he’s also shown he’s comfortable working in on their hands with his slider. It’s that ability to spot all three pitches and avoid the heart of the plate that is key to his success. Even after his elbow injury, he’s seen as a low-risk surefire starter with a consistent, easy delivery.”
Ryan Cusick, RHP, Wake Forest:
Ht: 6-6 | Wt: 225 | B-T: R-R
Commit/Drafted: Reds ’18 (40)
Age At Draft: 21.7
RapScore: 45
BA Grade: 50 | Risk: High
Fastball: 70 | Curveball: 55 | Changeup: 40 | Control: 45
Baseball America ranking #39
“Cusick’s father played college football in Maine, and Cusick himself wouldn’t look out of place on the gridiron with a massive 6-foot-6, 235-pound frame. He has the power stuff to back it up and has been a hard thrower since his high school days, when he sat in the 92-94 mph range and touched 97. After three years at Wake Forest, Cusick now has one of the best fastballs in the country, a pitch that sits around 95 mph and has been up into the 100-102 mph range with solid life. Cusick will also flash a plus breaking ball that averages around 80 mph and has slurvey shape that looks more like a slider at times and more like a downer curve at others, but scouts have noted that the pitch is inconsistent—a critique that dates back to his prep days. The pitch itself shows quality spin, movement and bite at times, but Cusick’s usability of the pitch needs to improve. Cusick also throws a firm, upper-80s changeup that has slight fading action at times, but his usage of the pitch is extremely minimal. Cusick posted a 4.24 ERA this spring through 12 starts and 70 innings, with 108 strikeouts (13.9 K/9) to 32 walks (4.1 BB/9). He’s a control-over-command pitcher who can put the fastball over the plate enough, but some evaluators think he hasn’t made enough adjustments in his strike throwing to safely profile as a starter, and instead think he’ll be a power arm out of the bullpen.”
Peyton Stovall, 2B, Haughton HS (LA):
Ht: 6-0 | Wt: 185 | B-T: L-R
Commit/Drafted: Arkansas
Age At Draft: 18.4
BA Grade: 55 | Risk: Extreme
Hit: 65 | Power: 55 | Run: 40 | Field: 50 | Arm: 45
Baseball America ranking #33
“Stovall’s draft profile is not for everyone. He’s a high school shortstop whose fringe-average arm will likely require a slide over to second base in pro ball and he’s not particularly physical (6 feet, 180 pounds). But Stovall may end up as the best pure hitter in this year’s draft with above-average power as well, and a combination like that can alleviate concerns about a player’s eventual defensive home. A lefthanded hitter, Stovall’s swing has a simple load, plenty of adjustability and a smooth, fluid stroke with good timing and the ability to use the entire field. He was a consistent performer against top-notch pitching all last summer and hit .505/.664/1.031 this spring with 14 home runs, 23 stolen bases, 42 walks and just seven strikeouts. Stovall’s long track record of hitting will give teams plenty of confidence in his bat, something that can’t be said for many of the college hitters in this class (who had a shortened season and no summer events in 2020). Defensively, his body is thickening up, but he should be an average defender at second, albeit one limited by his arm strength. He’s an Arkansas signee who could provide an instant impact for the Razorbacks, but the way he’s hit, it’s unlikely MLB teams will let him get to school. Stovall came into the season as a likely Day Two pick, but he’s hit his way into the late first round or supplemental first round consideration.”
My editorial – It may take a BIG overslot to entice Stovall away from Arkansas.
Lonnie White, Jr., OF, Malvern Prep (PA):
Ht: 6-3 | Wt: 205 | B-T: R-R
Commit/Drafted: Penn State
Age At Draft: 18.5
BA Grade: 55 | Risk: Extreme
Hit: 55 | Power: 60 | Run: 60 | Field: 50 | Arm: 55
Baseball America ranking #32
“White originally committed to Clemson for baseball, but he switched his commitment in May 2020 to Penn State to play both baseball and wide receiver for the football team. A three-sport athlete who also played high school basketball, White is a physical, explosive player with a well-rounded tool set. He also has a good track record of game performance going back to last summer, including an MVP award from the Perfect Game 17U National Championship in July, a long home run off a 94 mph fastball at the Area Code Games and another productive tournament at the World Wood Bat Championship in October. He has continued to hit well for the most part this spring, albeit with some swing and miss to his game, but he has shown feel for hitting, especially given his multi-sport background. White is physically mature for his age, but he has the strength, bat speed and swing conducive to tapping into what should consistently be plus raw power. White is built like a corner outfielder, but he’s a plus runner now with good instincts in center field. Those skills give him a chance to start out in center field, though with his body type, he probably will slow down. If he slides over to right field, he has the tools to be an above-average defender there, including an arm that’s improved to a tick above-average. White’s two-sport commitment might make him a more difficult sign, but his skill set could also make him one of the top high school outfielders off the board.”
My editorial – It will undoubtedly require a significant overslot to move him away from a dual sport opportunity at Penn St.
Michael McGreevy, RHP, UCSB:
Ht: 6-4 | Wt: 200 | B-T: R-R
Commit/Drafted: Never Drafted
Age At Draft: 21.0
BA Grade: 55 | Risk: High
Fastball: 55 | Curveball: 60 | Slider: 50 | Changeup: 50 | Control: 70
Baseball America ranking #16
“McGreevy caught scouts’ attention in high school with a velocity spike at the end of his senior year, but his short track record and questions about his signability allowed him to get to campus at UC Santa Barbara. He starred immediately for the Gauchos, earning Freshman All-America honors as a multi-inning reliever before moving into the rotation as a sophomore and posting a 0.99 ERA before the coronavirus pandemic shut down the season. McGreevy picked up where he left off in 2021, assuming the Friday night starter’s role for UCSB and emerging as the best college pitcher on the West Coast. He went 9-1, 2.92 with 109 strikeouts and 10 walks in 95.2 innings during the regular season. A standout shortstop in high school, McGreevy is an excellent athlete who fills up the strike zone with four pitches. His fastball sits 91-93 mph and touches 95-96 with sink and finish to his arm side. His low-80s curveball with downer action flashes plus, and his mid-80s slider and changeup each project as average to slightly above. McGreevy stands out most for his control. He is an elite strike-thrower who walked only 30 batters in 183.1 career innings at UCSB and projects to have plus-plus control, with evaluators noting his misses are smaller than former Gaucho and reigning American League Cy Young Award winner Shane Bieber’s were at the same age. McGreevy locates his fastball to both sides of the plate, lands all three of his secondary pitches for strikes and works quickly and efficiently. With a strong, durable body at 6-foot-4, 215 pounds and an athletic, repeatable delivery, McGreevy holds his stuff deep into games and is a no-doubt starting pitcher. Most see him as a potential mid-rotation starter, but he’s young for the class at only 20 and is a candidate to take a jump in an organization with a strong player development team.”
Jaden Hill, RHP, LSU
Ht: 6-4 | Wt: 235 | B-T: R-R
Commit/Drafted: Cardinals ’18 (38)
Age At Draft: 21.6
BA Grade: 55 | Risk: Extreme
Fastball: 60 | Slider: 55 | Changeup: 70 | Control: 55
Baseball America Ranking #24
“Few pitchers in this year’s class will spark more debate than Hill. A 38th-round pick of the Cardinals out of high school in 2018, Hill is the younger brother of outfielder Kentrell Hill, a 10th-round pick of the Giants in 2011. A team willing to take on risk could land a top-10 talent later in the first round. Hill has flashed front-of-the-rotation stuff at his best and was seen as a potential top-five pick coming into the 2021 season. Hill’s 2021 season ended after seven starts when he tore his ulnar collateral ligament in his pitching elbow and had Tommy John surgery. Hill’s freshman season in 2019 was cut short after just two starts because of a previous UCL strain. In high school he broke his collarbone playing football and broke his wrist while playing basketball. Evaluators noted that Hill was not showing the same quality of stuff in 2021 as he had shown in his four 2020 relief appearances—his plus slider was playing as a below-average pitch. While his fastball showed its normal velocity (92-96 mph and touching 98), hitters more often teed off on it. His plus-plus, low-80s changeup is one pitch that remained top-tier—it’s one of the best changeups in the draft class with velocity separation as well as tumbling depth and fade. It dives down and away from bats, making it a true swing-and-miss pitch. The quandary with Hill is that he has not had a track record of stringing together success—he posted a 6.67 ERA in 2021. No USA Baseball or Cape Cod League season in 2020 means Hill has only 51.1 college innings and nine starts for teams to evaluate. His injury offers an explanation for his subpar performance, but it kept him from stringing together the consistent success teams wanted to see. If he can stay healthy, Hill offers alluring upside with velocity, athleticism and average control. He is an exceptional athlete who was a standout quarterback and point guard in high school—he had Division I football offers and turned down the opportunity to play football in addition to baseball at LSU.”
I would really like to see Will Bednar slide, but that is unlikely. McGreevy sliding would be my second choice, but also unlikely. Gunnar Hoglund and Chase Petty would be my next choices. However, because it will not require an overslot bonus and a lot easier sign than either Stovall or White, I am guessing that High School LHP Frank Mozzicato will be high on the Dodgers list.
Discussion (51)
Disagree, not disagreeable
Totally unwatchable. At least there is a real starting pitcher on the mound today. Uceta and Reed cannot be back in the minors soon enough. Lux and Bellinger might benefit from a send down too. Bring someone up here who at least looks like he wants to be here. No excuse for Barnes having 3 catchers interference calls on this road trip. I have seen many a Dodger catcher go close to a full career and not have any. In this state I would say AF should strike early and make a trade. They have blown a golden opportunity to take over 1st and now are 1 1/2 back again. But win the next 4 and go into the break with a good feeling.
Last 4 games – 53 strike outs
In other words, we are making about 50% of our outs without hitting the ball in fair territory.
That’s a pretty poor recipe for success in any league.
Draft is coming – how about drafting some guys who are contact hitters
Have to agree with many of the posters. This is the worst baseball I’ve seen played by the Dodgers this year and that includes the 5-10 stretch, the 4 game loss to the Cubs and getting no hit.
Catcher’s interference, a horrible catching game last night by Smith, Lux errors aplenty, no team speed, Mookie with that stupid looking head tilt/shake after another of his K’s, Bellinger playing himself into a trade day discussion for a quality SP, JT looking very slow and very nearly the end of his career at least as a defensive player, a vaunted BP that has relied upon, with mixed results, some waiver wire acquisitions (Nate Jones, Bickford, Reed) along with rookies Clevinger, Vesia, Uceta and soon Darien Nunez.
I’m all for due process in a court of law and giving the accused the right to cross examine his/her accusers, but I believe it is now time for the Dodgers to execute the morales clause and cut TB right now. Dude is supposed to be a professional and meets a “hook up” on the Internet and has rough sex with no denial and now in full blown damage control and crisis communication mode in full effect by his handlers. Even if ultimately not charged or proven innocent or if the matter is handled with a civil settlement, now is the time to release him. Do it now Stan, send a message to TB, the fans and all of baseball that we expect more, no we demand more from Dodger players. Dude is a “head case” and while I was willing to overlook his prior stupid acts, I am now of the opinion we should release him, re-group and hit the trade deadline and see what happens.
Dodgers score 6 runs all as a result of HR’s. No small ball, no hit and run, no sacrifice, no going the other way or work to hit up the middle, too many K’s. Heck yes, I’m upset. When do we see Ruiz, Miller, Knack, or someone else because I’ve seen enough of Uceta.
The Marlins may suck, but I wouldn’t complain about us not being able to beat them. After all the Dodgers preceded this series by winning 9 in a row. And after all, the Marlins don’t completely suck given their very competitive pitching. Maybe it would help if the Dodgers learned to tack on runs throughout the game. Having one big inning is simply not enough.
Maybe learning to hit against the shift is something the Dodgers need to work on. Sometimes a well placed base hit is all that’s needed.
We are back to having 3-4 pitchers who should not b in the majors. All because we have no starters. The offense has been bad but 6 runs ought to win the game. Our defense has been terrible. Our catching and lux have given the games away. Where in the h… is Barnes head. He has been awful. I am with bear why did u take Jansen out? Better yet why did u put him in? Kelly had struck out 3 out of 4 guys. Being short on pitching u had to give Kelly a longer leash but no. I did not second guess I said why was uceta in before the inning. Doc is such a dumbass. When we get Seager back I would send lux down for a couple of weeks. Mb the all star break will help. Bear I think it is funny that it is rumored we are looking for sp. the chess man should have done that a month ago.
Getting hard to watch. No fire on this team. Someone needs to put a foot in their ass! We know it won’t be Robert’s
Went to the well too many times
I just hope we can pull one out tomorrow
Well I think we’ve all seen enough of Uceta!
How in the h… does Robert’s end up with uceta in the 9th?
Don’t believe me but I swear I had a feeling, But we still have a game to play
Please don’t let it go to waste
These last three games are the worst that I have seen the Dodgers play in a long time.
The Marlins suck and the Dodgers can’t even beat them.
Thanks for the great post, Jeff! Good to have you back!
New game again. Lux mistakes really have hurt
I’m pretty impressed with White even though he gave up the two dingers. He was battling out there and not walking people
Roberts invites former Dodger Reggie Smith to be on his coaching staff for the All Star game.
Zen koan: if Ron Cervenka is flushed down a toilet, does he rotate clockwise or counterclockwise?
Current rotation depth chart:
Buehler
Urias
Gonsolin
Price
Gray
Uceta
Jackson
Mark Timmons
Pepiot
Carrillo
For those who haven’t been following this story, Fangraphs, in their latest mock draft had the Dodgers picking a high school shortstop in the first round by the name of …………………………………..Max Muncy.
Even more crazy is the fact that he share’s a birthday with a current Dodger ……………………………Max Muncy!
I don’t care how good or bad this kid is, we have to draft him. After all it’s only a first round pick.
Now we just need Bellinger to feed off the energy
New game
Mookie with a BOMB
Game over
Reed thrown up the cheese his night isn’t gonna last too long
I said quite a few posts ago our starting rotation was in a very risky territory. Nobody seemed alarmed but singing the blue. But here we are and mark u said let Urias miss a start and I said who would take his place. U said have a bullpen game. Well it looks like a bullpen game until the all star break. We got buehler and Urias left and buehler pitched one of his shortest and worst games of the year. It is amazing that a World Series champion does not have anybody who can make a spot start. The way the offense is going we can just outscore our opponents.
Last night for Great Lakes, Landon Knack threw 6.0 shutout innings in his second start of the season. He allowed 2 hits with 0 walks and 6 K’s. For the season, in 22.1 IP at Great Lakes he has a 2.82 ERA and a 1.03 WHIP. He has allowed 19 hits with only 4 BBs against 24 Ks. Both Knack and Bobby Miller are being held back somewhat this year. With all of the injuries this year, I cannot say that I blame them, but I would like to see what they could do at Tulsa.
In a rare post by me on non Dodger related news. Ohtani just hit his 32nd. With the Trout & Rengifo contract will the Halos have enough $$cabbage$$ for him if he stays healthy through next year? He gets arbitration in ’23 unless they do something b4 then.
Dodgers have placed Kershaw on the IL with elbow inflammation.
We need to get ourselves a few starting pitchers.
Dodgers Outright Yoshi Tsutsugo
By Anthony Franco | July 7, 2021 at 4:55pm CDT
The Dodgers have passed first baseman Yoshi Tsutsugo through outright waivers, Jorge Castillo of the Los Angeles Times was among those to relay. He’ll remain with the organization at Triple-A Oklahoma City but no longer occupies a spot on the 40-man roster.
Double grand slam AC. Thanks.
Cusick and Stovall are getting a lot of attention as Dodger possibilities.
Dodgers cancelled Bauer’s bobblehead promotion, and removed all Bauer merchandise from the team store. I would say they are cutting ties.
https://apple.news/Ao1V1hj7ST7KEwHzPVM7joA
The old adage says: “the rich have more when they become poor than the poor when they enrich” and N. Feliz was very good, I read it’s 95 mph so there is hope that it can work.
Tonight’s interesting lineup against the Fish in Miami:
Albert in the 2 hole…..
RF Mookie
1B Albert
2B Max
3B Justin
SS Chris
CF Cody
LF AJ
C Austin
P Jake as in Reed
A very enjoyable read Jeff. Thank you!
I remember you were planning on visiting some battlefields. Any progress there?
I share your interest in military history and have been to many battlefields. It’s difficult to convey the emotions one has when looking over the sands of Omaha Beach from the cemetery on the bluffs overlooking that killing field. Or hearing a park ranger get choked up when describing the sacrifices made by young men at Little Round Top and at Yorktown.
I highly recommend a visit to The Crater outside of Petersburg (see opening scene of Cold Mountain), as well as the slaughterhouse nearby at Cold Harbor.
Reading historical fiction beforehand can greatly enhance the experience, as it did for me in reading Shelby Foote’s “Shiloh” before walking that battlefield this past January (also the father-son Shaara writers). And of course you must go to the Antietam battlefield to see where the deadliest day in American history took place (coincidentally on our Constitution Day!)
If more of our young people had been exposed to the terrible sacrifices made by so many of their predecessors our country would be in much better shape today.
Thanks again!
Absolutely awesome post Jeff. While I couldn’t care less about the HR Derby and the All-Star Game, I’m all over the draft. Your pre-draft coverage is great and interesting. Who will fall to the Dodgers? Do they have some unheralded gem below the radar that they hope to develop? The Bauer deal certainly didn’t help, losing a second rounder. We will see.
* The bullpen has held strong despite 19 appearances the last 3 games and facing a bull pen game tonight. With being 1.5 starting pitchers short , there better be a plan or this pen can’t hold up.
* I have been very quiet and patient with Doc line ups, in-game decisions and handling on the pen. Despite some moves I consider very odd, the pitchers have stepped up and done the job. One earned run by 7 guys last night was again awesome. I won’t complain about Doc and his in-game decisions except to say I don’t understand pulling Gonzo when he did and going to Reed who’d never pitched in MLB. (Doc likes to get new guys in a game as soon as the arrive) Gonzo was cruising at 72 pitches and we need length from him especially with the BP day, today. But I guess Doc didn’t like the match up and hooked Gonzo after 5.1 innings, That’s not enough from a starter who’s getting the job done. The hitters will tell you when. But if Doc plans to use match-up strategies every day, he’ll need 20 guys in the bullpen.
* That’s the last I will question but the last 2 games have not been Doc’s best, IMO.
* But Doc’s not leaving all those guys on base. He’s not striking out 6 times in a row. He’s not booting the ball or throwing it away.
* Another all too predictable outcome for Mookie. top 4, 2 outs, bases juiced in a 1 run game. Scoring 2 here would be huge! He took a 91 cutter right down Broadway for strike one. That was the last hittable pitch he saw striking out on a change down and out of the zone. He ends up expanding the zone because he hits so often behind in the count. Ambush something early.
* Not to rub in what we already know, but Mookie’s HR % lowest in 6 years. Strikeout % highest ever, hard hit balls lowest ever. Pull % highest ever. Remember last year when he had some otherworldly low swing and miss % with pitches in the strike zone? What happened to those bat to ball skills? I hope he breaks out soon but we’ve been waiting for a while now.
* I watched Fall Ball a few years back and loved the actions of Jazz Chisholm. I just wondered if he could hit enough and he has. His speed was noticeable right off. Last night, I had Jazz Chisholm at 3.67 to 1st. Holy shit. And 3.15 to 2nd and out at second on a great job by Bickford giving Smith a chance.
* Wow, tough ending. Brutal pitch by Treinen. Poor blocking mechanics on a tough short hop by Smith. (I have previously questioned receiving with the one knee on the ground limited movabllity) and a poor rushed throw. But JT has to block that throw even if it means wearing it. That ball can’t get through in that situation. JT has struggled throwing the ball across the diamond lately, as well.
* Another starting pitcher has to emerge along with Gonzo being allowed to go beyond 70 pitches. Maybe it’s Price which doesn’t seem to excite Doc and AF. Or someone from within the organization getting the call. Or will AF find a way to get a Max or a quality guy at the right price., before the deadline. Who knows? But trying to piece this together with 3.5 starters has the fate of dogs that chase cars.
Per True Blue LA:
Yoshi Tsutsugo was 0-for-4, and in 15 games with Oklahoma City hit .138/.227/.310 with three doubles, 18 strikeouts, and seven walks in 66 plate appearances while on the injured list with a strained right calf. Minor league rehab assignments for position players can last up to 20 days, and Tuesday was Day 20 for Tsutsugo.
Well done Jeff!! I love reading and writing about the draft. I hope you are continuing to experience better health and emotional well being.
I don’t believe there is any way that Bednar falls to the Dodgers. His draft stock went through the roof with his marvelous College World Series performance. I could see the Dodgers going for one of the TJ pitchers(Hoglund or Hill) if they should fall. Always nice to be able to unexpectedly find a Walker Buehler on your porch. My personal favorite would be McGreevy. I also hope that the Dodger draft Branden Boissiere, out of the University of Arizona, in the later rounds. He can flat out hit.
Speaking of the University of Arizona, their coach and our family friend, Jay Johnson, has recently been hired to coach the storied program at LSU. We’re so very excited about how far he has come from the first day we met him at Point Loma University and he played ball there with my son.
Good write up Jeff but you forgot one prospect; Max Muncy. If the Dodgers pick him, we can be well on our way to having an all Muncy team.
Nice job Jeff as always. Missed ya on here Badger…good to see you are still ticking. Last night is over, today is a new day. So far no mention of who the opener will be. Dave is still a lousy in game manager. Getting punked by DM two days in a row.
Jeff,
How are our international signings doing? They were so highly touted now Luis? Is no longer a big deal? How about ss and c?
Dodgers lead MLB in runners left on base…
They should be embarrassed about last nght. As embarrassing to me as the no hitter. I hope this gives them ANOTHER needed kick in the ass. Horrible defense, horrible situational hitting. Everything but the pitching sucked & it was not stellar, but should have been good enough to get the job done.
Yeah, the draft. Take a guess. It will probably be wrong
I need a lawyer. I know lawyers hang out in here. Morality Clause in Major League Contracts. I believe due process is talked about but not needed. Does anybody know how the Dodgers morality clause reads? Does California law play into it? Do Charlie Sheen and Fatty Arbuckle rulings play into it? What can we expect?
https://jipel.law.nyu.edu/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/NYU_JIPEL_Vol-5-No-1_3_Epstein_MoralsClauses.pdf
I think sports starts on page 90. Just bill Timmons.
Great job, Jeff. I love the draft, been following it since 1998, reading 300 or so scouting reports. A guy I played with back in the day, Steve Chilcott, was the number one pick back in 1966. Second pick was some guy named Reggie Jackson. While some consider Chilcott a bad pick, he was the best high school player I ever saw play and I saw George Brett. He just busted up his shoulder twice and ended up not being to throw or hit with authority, thus ending his career.
What’s funny, excited about the draft, could care less about the all-star game, merely an exhibition today, not like the old days when stars were in the game in the later innings.
Not sure who the Dodgers will go after at this point, but I agree a catcher doesn’t make much sense.
But some think they want a bat, but probably depends on where players drop. No second round pick probably factors in somewhat.
As to the trade deadline, too murky at this point to determine who might be a seller or buyer, hard to tell who is available. Since it appears the Trevor Bauer situation is up in the air and doesn’t look good, a starter, if one is available, might make sense. But Tony Gonsolin’s effort bodes well moving forward.
Right now the Dodgers seem to be finding ways to lose the past two games. Opportunities missed. When is Mookie Betts going to come out of whatever this is … a guy being paid this kind of money needs to produce or at least make contact in a key situation. Instead he strikes out, going silently into the night. No idea what’s wrong, but he’s not the same player and it’s costing the team.
Back to the draft, the Dodgers do an exceptional job, going back to the days of Logan White. While they make a mistake here and there, yah, I have no idea what they were thinking when they drafted Kendall. All the scouting reports had him as bat challenged.
Anybody want Adam Eaton?
Great post Jeff. Always happy to see your stuff here and hopefully we’ll get a lot more of it before the season is over.
I always get a laugh out of all the mock drafts because nobody, including the experts, has a clue what will actually happen after the first few picks. That said, I’ll be watching, to see who we pick up and then I’ll be following their career, as I know you will too.
On the position side, I’m digging Brandon Lewis. RH power bats never go out of style.
With Hoese struggling, he’s picked up some of the prospect slack.
Three interesting pitching prospects scheduled to start today:
Beeter–Huge stuff
Jackson–Still has promise/trade chip?
Duran–Monster frame/LH
Excellent content. I hope we can revisit this after the draft.
Nice job AC. Very thorough and informative. With the pick at the end of the first round, no second rounder and small bonus pool this draft is gonna be a lot like last night’s game. It makes be feel like the well of talent at the minor league level is going to run dry sooner than later. Hopefully, the upcoming CBA will more to reduce penalties to successful teams as it relates to future drafts.
The game yesterday wasn’t a total S&^% Show, but the end certainly was. Maybe it’s better they choked it away in the 10th rather than getting deeping into that bullpen. The guys on the field did not get the big hit they needed even though there was plenty of traffic on the basis. The gloves weren’t there either with miscues by Lux, Smith and Turner leading to the only two runs scored against them and just enough to put a notch in the loss column. More shift hits contributed to the ultimate result. The bright side was the pitching. Gonsolin was on his game and it should have turned out better for him. I’m not a big fan of side-arm pitchers in general and Reed did little to change my mind. The rest of the pitchers pitched well enough to win, but you have to be close to perfect when the offense doesn’t show up.
I’m not looking forward to the bullpen game today. It made little sense to move it up to begin with, but maybe they felt that Urias needed an extra day. I’m sure they’ll make another roster move or two to get fresh arms to help out. I’m looking for the bats to break out after taking the last two games off. Time to start another streak.
WOW!
Just Wow!
4,766 Words. This is the ONLY blog you need to read on the 2021 Draft.
Exceptional job, Jeff!