2021-2025 Payroll Projections (In Progress For Friday)

In a November 15, 2015 article authored by Matthew Moreno at dodgerblue.com, Andrew Friedman and Dodgers president and CEO Stan Kasten maintained that the extravagant spending for the Dodgers would not continue, and that the 2016 season would provide a small opportunity to make progress toward balancing the scale. According to Bill Shaikin of the LA Times, Dodgers co-owner Todd Boehly recently echoed a similar sentiment, going so far as to say the club may need to get near league average in terms of payroll:

“We’re looking toward building something long-term, and sustainable,” he said. Leading the league in payroll every year, he said, is not sustainable. “I think sustainable is more like the league average,” Boehly said, “plus some, or plus a lot.”

So when fans advise us that the Dodgers have the financial might to go well beyond the CBT threshold based on not only what was said at the time, but what has occurred since.  Mark Walter, Todd Boehly, Stan Kasten, Magic Johnson, et al purchased the team on May 1, 2012.  Thus, the first year they had full control of the payroll was 2013.  Below is a table of CB Tax Payroll for each year beginning with 2013.  The numbers in the parenthesis indicates the payroll ranking that year.  The source of the material is from Cot’s Baseball Contracts.

40 Man Roster Payroll for CBT Threshold Determination

• 2013               $243,234,050 (1)
• 2014               $277,737,082 (1)
• 2015               $297,918,681 (1)
• 2016               $252,551,634 (1)
• 2017               $253,633,893 (1)
• 2018               $195,039,730 (4)
• 2019               $204,918,530 (4)
• 2020               $204,653,651 (5)

2018 was especially poignant as that was the year that MLB had “advised” Dodger owners to get below the CBT threshold, or there would be consequences.  The problem was not so much the payroll, although there were certainly complaints from other owners, but that the Dodger ownership was not adhering to the debt/equity relationship they were required to comply with after their fifth full year.  There were no reported stipulated consequences, but like all financial issues involving MLB organizations, those remedies were to remain between the owners.  But something obviously caught their attention.  A $58MM decrease in payroll in one year??? 

The Dodgers have managed to stay under the CBT threshold for three consecutive years, but David Price opting out in 2020 certainly helped.  Those payroll “corrections” enabled the Dodgers to not only trade for Mookie Betts, but it also allowed them to sign him to a 12 year $365MM contract. 

The Dodgers have been not only competing, but contending for the last several years, landing in the Fall Classic in three of the last four years.  It might have been four, but the Nationals were a team of destiny in 2019, starting with the Trent Grisham error late in their wild card game against the Brewers, followed by several questionable managerial decisions in Game 5 of the NLDS by our beloved Dodgers. 

During these last several years, the team has been riding the coattails of some outstanding prospects that turned into superstars (or potential superstars).  Corey Seager, Cody Bellinger, Julio Urias, and Walker Buehler.  These four will becoming FA starting with Seager for 2022, followed by Belli and Urias for 2024, and Buehler for 2025.  The FA years are actually well placed, but it is a significant number of top FA coming of age around the same time.  Of course having major contracts like Clayton Kershaw and Kenley Jansen coming off the books at the right time helps.  One of the components of the AF genius that Mark touched on yesterday, was that AF is looking waaaaaaaay out to review the roster architecture and resultant salary barometers, so that the payroll demands can line up nicely with the payroll supply.

A while back Cassidy requested an analysis as to what the possibilities of the Dodgers being able to sign all of their elite players…Seager, Bellinger, Urias, and Buehler.  Below is a working table of the projected salaries for 2021-2025.  I have made multiple assumptions, which may or not be valid.  I have zero knowledge and/or experience in determining arbitration or free agent salaries.  But it is a working project and subject to change (Thank You Captain Obvious). I will identify the assumptions below the table. I am using AAV salaries.

Player	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025
–	–	–	–	–	–
Clayton Kershaw	31,000,000	FA
David Price	15,000,000	15,000,000	FA
Mookie Betts	25,554,824	25,554,824	25,554,824	25,554,824	25,554,824
Kenley Jansen	16,000,000	FA
AJ Pollock	12,000,000	12,000,000	12,000,000
Cody Bellinger	16,100,000	22,000,000	26,000,000	FA
Corey Seager	13,750,000	FA
Blake Treinen	8,750,000	8,750,000	FA
Max Muncy	8,666,667	8,666,667	FA
Joe Kelly	8,333,333	FA
Chris Taylor	6,700,000	FA
Corey Knebel	5,250,000	FA
Julio Urias	3,600,000	7,200,000	12,000,000	FA
Walker Buehler	3,725,000	10,000,000	15,000,000	19,000,000	FA
Tommy Kahnle	2,375,000	2,375,000	FA
Austin Barnes	1,750,000	2,000,000
Dylan Floro	975,000	1,500,000	2,000,000	FA
Scott Alexander	1,000,000	Non Tender
Adam Kolarek	Pre-Arb	A1	A2	A3	FA
Caleb Ferguson	Pre-Arb	A1	A2	A3	FA
Will Smith	Pre-Arb	Pre-Arb	A1	A2	A3
Dustin May	Pre-Arb	Pre-Arb	A1	A2	A3
Edwin Rios	Pre-Arb	Pre-Arb	A1	A2	A3
Brusdar Graterol	Pre-Arb	Pre-Arb	A1	A2	A3
Matt Beaty	Pre-Arb	Pre-Arb	A1	A2	A3
Dennis Santana	Pre-Arb	Pre-Arb	A1	A2	A3
Tony Gonsolin	Pre-Arb	Pre-Arb	A1	A2	A3
Gavin Lux	Pre-Arb	Pre-Arb	Pre-Arb	A1	A2
Keibert Ruiz	Pre-Arb	Pre-Arb	Pre-Arb	A1	A2
Josh Sborz	Pre-Arb	Pre-Arb	Pre-Arb	A1	A2
Mitchell White	Pre-Arb	Pre-Arb	Pre-Arb	A1	A2
Victor Gonzalez	Pre-Arb	Pre-Arb	Pre-Arb	Pre-Arb	A1
Zach McKinstry	Pre-Arb	Pre-Arb	Pre-Arb	Pre-Arb	A1
Luke Raley	Pre-Arb	Pre-Arb	Pre-Arb	Pre-Arb	A1
D. J. Peters	Pre-Arb	Pre-Arb	Pre-Arb	Pre-Arb	A1
Andre Jackson	Pre-Arb	Pre-Arb	Pre-Arb	Pre-Arb	Pre-Arb
Gerardo Carrillo	Pre-Arb	Pre-Arb	Pre-Arb	Pre-Arb	Pre-Arb
Zach Reks	Pre-Arb	Pre-Arb	Pre-Arb	Pre-Arb	Pre-Arb
Edwin Uceta	Pre-Arb	Pre-Arb	Pre-Arb	Pre-Arb	Pre-Arb
0-3 year players	5,600,000	7,700,000	6,300,000	4,900,000	2,800,000
Kenta Maeda	564,000
–	–	–	–	–	–
40 man players MiLB	2,250,000	2,250,000	2,250,000	2,250,000	2,250,000
Est. Player Benefits	15,500,000	15,500,000	15,500,000	15,500,000	15,500,000
Projected 40 Man CBT Payroll	204,443,824	140,496,491	116,604,824	67,204,824	46,104,824
CBT Threshold	210,000,000	210,000,000	210,000,000	210,000,000	210,000,000
Amount under threshold	5,556,176	69,503,509	93,395,176	142,795,176	163,895,176
–	–	–	–	–	–
Clayton Kershaw		20,000,000	20,000,000	20,000,000	–
Corey Seager		28,000,000	28,000,000	28,000,000	28,000,000
Kenley Jansen
Joe Kelly
Chris Taylor
Corey Knebel
David Price
Max Muncy
Austin Barnes
Cody Bellinger				30,000,000	30,000,000
Julio Urias				20,000,000	20,000,000
Dylan Floro
Blake Treinen
Walker Buehler					30,000,000
Caleb Ferguson					7,000,000
–	–	–	–	–	–
A1 Players		800,000	6,000,000	2,850,000	2,000,000
A2 Players			2,000,000	16,000,000	11,250,000
A3 Players				5,000,000	35,500,000
A4 Players
–	–	–	–	–	–
FA and Arbitration Payroll		48,800,000	56,000,000	121,850,000	163,750,000
–	–	–	–	–	–
Below 2021 CBT		20,703,509	37,395,176	20,945,176	145,176

●  Estimated amounts are bold and italicized.

●  I have only included Dodger players currently under contract.  I have not considered any free agents, Dodgers or otherwise.

●  2022 Free Agents:

Clayton Kershaw – Assume will sign a 3 year $60MM.  I doubt that AF will go 3 years, but I wanted to assume that everyone wants Kershaw to retire as a Dodger without hesitation. 

Corey Seager – I do not think Seager is in the Frankie Lindor salary range, who will expectedly sign a $300MM+ contract for 10 year deal.  I went with Seager signing a $280MM over 10 years.  That is more in total than Nolan Arenado, but the 10 years gives a lower AAV.  With Boras, I assume there will be opt outs available, but I am not going to consider them.

Kenley Jansen, Joe Kelly, CT3, and Corey Knebel will not be retained.

•   2022  First Year Arbitration players
•            Caleb Ferguson – 800K
•            Adam Kolarek – Non Tender

• 2023 Free Agents: Assume none of David Price, Blake Treinen, Max Muncy, Tommy Kahnle, nor Austin Barnes will be retained.

•   2023 First Year Arbitration Players –
•             Will Smith – $1.5MM
•             Dustin May – $1.5MM
•             Edwin Rios – $1.0MM
•             Brusdar Graterol – $800K
•             Tony Gonsolin – $1.2MM
•             Matt Beaty – Non Tender
•             Dennis Santana – Non Tender

•   2023 Second Year Arbitration Players
•             Caleb Ferguson – $2MM

•   2024 Free Agents:
•             Cody Bellinger – $30MM AAV
•             Julio Urias – $20MM AAV
•             Dylan Floro – Will not be retained

•   2024 First Year Arbitration Players –
•             Gavin Lux – $1MM
•             Keibert Ruiz – $1MM
•             Mitch White – $850K
•             Josh Sborz – Non Tender

•   2024 Second Year Arbitration Players –
•             Will Smith – $3MM
•             Dustin May – $4MM
•             Edwin Rios – $3MM
•             Brusdar Graterol – $2MM
•             Tony Gonsolin – $4MM

•   2024 Third Year Arbitration Players
•             Caleb Ferguson – $5MM

•   2025 Free Agents:
•             Walker Buehler – $30MM AAV
•             Caleb Ferguson – $7MM AAV
•             Clayton Kershaw – Retires

•   2025 First Year Arbitration Players –
•             Victor Gonzalez – $1MM
•             DJ Peters- $1MM
•             Zach McKinstry – Non Tender
•             Luke Raley – Non Tender

•   2025 Second Year Arbitration Players –
•             Gavin Lux – $5MM
•             Keibert Ruiz – $5MM
•             Mitch White – $1.25MM

•   2025 Third Year Arbitration Players
•             Will Smith – $7MM
•             Dustin May – $10MM
•             Edwin Rios – $6MM
•             Brusdar Graterol – $5MM
•            Tony Gonsolin- $7.5MM

We have no idea what the CBT threshold will be beginning for 2022.  It is clear that MLBPA will insist on a significant increase in this threshold.  The owners will negotiate it down.  Where it lands, nobody knows.  MLBPA sees this as a salary cap, which they will never agree to.  MLBPA acknowledges that there are the haves and have nots, but they believe that it is up to the wealthy organizations to supplement the economically challenged rather than the players.  The wealthy owners may have to go along with increased shared revenue scenarios, but this time they are going to insist that those shared revenues be used for payroll and not to supplement the owners pockets.  They never want to see another Frank McCourt. 

If as some believe, AF could sign a FA knowing how much FA money is coming off the books after 2021.  The problem is that two of those FA will be re-signed for somewhere in the combined $50MM range eating up a vast majority of those dropped FA.  If my free agent and arbitration numbers are close then AF could sign a FA in the $25MM AAV this year and get back under next year. 

The next CBA could also impact the arbitration rules.  I know the MLBPA is furious over the Cubs handling of Kris Bryant, and there will be a Kris Bryant rule in the next CBA.  I may have been aggressive with Belli’s and Buehler’s arbitration figures, so there could be some saving there as well.  I am also undoubtedly very aggressive with Clayton Kershaw, but that is a personal prerogative.  And I have the Dodgers maintaining Caleb Ferguson through all of his arbitration years and his first year FA in 2025.  Another personal prerogative.  You can all come up with your own assumptions.

I do not think Pollock’s contract can be moved.  Whether he is retained in 2023 or his option buyout is exercised, his 2023 AAV is $12MM.  At this time, I have no idea who might be a future option for LF in the Dodgers organization.  I am hoping it will be DJ Peters, but he is going to need to cut back on his strikeouts. 

As an aside, both Miguel Sano and Joey Gallo have K rates in excess of 35% at the MLB level, giving credence that teams are willing to play players with huge swing and miss ABs as long as they have BIG POWER.  Andy Pages will not be ready by April 2023 unless he makes huge strides in his swing development (not expected).  Neither Jake Vogel nor Luis Rodriguez figure to be ready until 2024.  I do not believe that Cody Thomas will ever make the LAD 26-man roster.  Maybe some consideration should be given to Michael Busch getting some playing experience in LF this summer. 

Currently the Dodgers are $5.5MM below the CBT for 2021. If the Dodgers do sign one or more FA this winter (even JT) in excess of $6MM, it will have ripple effects for the future.  The Dodgers should be able slide under the CBT with JT after this year.  The year that seems most vulnerable will be 2025.  But they should be able to exceed that threshold for a year, and then get back underneath in 2026, when all of the 2023 first year arbitration players become FA.  The Dodgers will never be able to sign all of Will Smith, Dustin May, Edwin Rios, Brusdar Graterol, and Tony Gonsolin.  It will be very similar to 2021.

So while I believe the rules going forward will not be the same as they are now, at least I am satisfied that the Dodgers do have room to be able to sign all four of their BIG FOUR:  Seager, Bellinger, Urias, and Buehler (plus Kershaw for three years and $60MM and Ferguson for one at $7MM). However, it is highly doubtful that they can sign all four (plus Kershaw) and also Kris Bryant or Nolan Arenado or Trevor Bauer. But I am not in charge of the Dodgers player payroll, so we shall see what level of commitment to payroll they have an appetite for.