2020 Rule 5 Draft Summary

Once again MLB has spoken, and the Dodgers farm system was the #1 shopping source for Rule 5 draftees.  In the Major League Phase, the acquiring team “buys” the player for $100,000 and must keep that player on the roster for the entire 2021 season, or offer the player back for $50,000.  Overall, 2 of the top 7 picks of the Major League Phase were Dodgers.  RHRP Brett de Geus was the #2 selection and went to the Texas Rangers.  RHRP, and former 1^st round draft pick out of Vanderbilt, Jordan Sheffield was the #7 overall pick going to Colorado.

There were 18 Major League Phase draft picks, 56 MiLB Phase, and 74 total.  The 18 ML Phase draft picks were the same as were drafted in 2016 and 2017, and the most selected since 19 in 2010.  The total of 74 draftees were the most since 79 were selected in 2004.  It was a very robust Rule 5 Draft.

All in all, the Dodgers had 8 players selected over both the Major League Phase (2) and the Minor League Phase (6).  No other team had as many selected.  NYY and Tampa Bay had 7 selected, while Toronto, NYM, and Twins had 5.  25 teams lost at least one MiLB player.  Boston, Seattle, Atlanta, Washington, and Milwaukee did not have any players selected in the Rule 5 Draft.

There were 18 selections overall in the Major League phase of the Rule 5 Draft.  The New York Yankees had three selected, while the Dodgers, Minnesota, Baltimore, and Cleveland each had two Major League Phase players selected.  Seven other teams lost one player in the Major League Phase. 

For the acquiring teams, 16 teams made one selection while two teams (Baltimore and Oakland) had two each.  The Dodgers did not participate in the Major League Phase selection.

The first overall selection went to the Pirates who drafted highly regarded but erratic Dominican RHP, Jose Soriano, from the Angels.  Soriano was the Angels #13 prospect, and just turned 22 in October.  He has not pitched above Low A in his career.  Soriano has a 70 fastball but a 45 control.  In 2019, Soriano issued 5.9 walks/9 innings.  That clearly is not sustainable at the ML level.  His MLB Pipeline Scouting Report indicates that what he needs is innings.  Soriano had TJ surgery early February 2020.  I would suspect that Pittsburgh could hide Soriano on the IL through June.  17 months after TJ surgery is not unheard of.  They can start to build him up at their Florida complex and then hide him the rest of 2021 in the bullpen.  Soriano can then be optioned in 2022. Pittsburgh knows they are not competing in 2021, so I would suspect that they are planning on keeping him. This will cost Pittsburgh $570,500 to keep him on the roster for the entirety of the 2021 season.  That is somewhere between a 3^rd and 4^th round Rule 4 Amateur Draftee. 

There were eight draftees who were on their team’s Top 30 Prospects:

• Jose Soriano (RHP) – Angels #13 to Pittsburgh
• Brett de Geus (RHP) – LAD #27 to Texas
• Jose Rivera (RHP) – Houston #14 to LAA
• Luis Oviedo (RHP) – Indians #25 to NYM
• Dedniel Nunez (RHP) – Mets #18 to SFG
• Paul Campbell (RHP) – Rays #24 to Miami
• Trevor Stephan (RHP) – NYY #24 to Cleveland

Of the 18 Major League Phase draftees, 15 were RHP, 2 OF, and 1 SS. Surprise, surprise…pitching was the position of preference in the draft.

Dodger Losses:

Brett de Geus (23) – Dodgers #27 prospect (Initial Texas ranking #29) – Brett has above average fastball (60) and curve (60).  He does have a third pitch, but it is an inconsistent slider, that could be further developed.  MLB Pipeline Scouting Report:

Los Angeles’ player development staff helped de Geus upgrade his pitches, but it may the Rangers who benefit because they grabbed him in the Rule 5 Draft at the end of 2020. After topping out at 95 mph with a straight fastball in 2018, he now deals a 93-98 mph heater with running action. He also has improved his breaking pitches and now operates with a low-80s curveball with power and depth and an upper-80s slider/cutter.

De Geus’ confidence improved along with his stuff, and he did a much better job of attacking hitters last season (2019), when his walk rate dropped to 1.9 per nine innings from 3.9 in his debut. His ability to generate strikeouts and weak ground-ball contact could make him a late-inning relief weapon.

Brett was my favorite LAD prospect.  I have been advocating for him since 2018 in Ogden.  He went from Rookie League 2018 to High A in 2019, and excelled.  Overall in 2019, he pitched 61.2 innings and registered a 1.75 ERA and a 0.941 WHIP.  He had 72 strikeouts along with 13 walks (5.54 SO/W).  In the 2019 Arizona Fall League he was relatively unhittable.  He was not scored on, and allowed 2 hits in 9.1 IP.  He had 11 K’s and 2 BB’s. He was added to the LAD 60 man roster for 2020, and spent the season at the USC alternative training site. I thought he had Caleb Ferguson type helium allowing him to possibly rise from AA to MLB in 2021.  He is a solid 2 pitch reliever and misses bats.  He had a 2.00 Ground Out/Air Out ratio at Rancho, making him a legit ground ball pitcher.  In a brief review of the potential Texas bullpen, he has a very legit chance to stick.  I am not a scout by any means, but if I thought that de Geus could make the LAD roster at some point in 2021, I would have to think that Texas could keep him on the 2021 roster for the full year.  Rookie relievers can stick.  If Texas offered Brett back, I would think that AF would accept.  He now joins Willie Calhoun and AJ Alexy as former Dodger draft picks on the Texas Rangers roster.  I will miss Brett de Geus and will follow him closely with Texas.

Jordan Sheffield (26 in June) – Unranked as a prospect in LAD and Colorado MiLB system – This was Jordan’s second year as a Rule 5 Draft eligible pitcher.  He went undrafted last year, and while many did not include him as a potential draft pick, I thought that he might have been and stated so on Wednesday.  Again I am not a scout, but I did follow an obscure publication that hinted that some teams were looking at Sheff as a possibility.  He is a former #1 draft pick out of Vanderbilt, that never could stay strong as a starting pitcher.  He had questionable control and threw way too many pitches (and still does).  He was converted to relief half way through 2018, without a lot of success in his 7.0 IP.  But the Dodgers saw enough potential in him as a reliever that they sent him to Arizona Fall League where he pitched much better.  In 9.1 IP he allowed 2 runs for a 1.93 ERA with a  1.071 WHIP.  He still had control problems with 7 K’s and 4 BB’s in those 9.1 IP. In 2019, Jordan pitched decently at both Tulsa and Rancho.  He had a combined 55 IP, and a 3.27 ERA and 1.364 WHIP (because of his walks).  He had 74 Ks and 43 BBs for a rather poor 1.72 SO/W ratio.  He allowed more walks (43) than hits (32). He is a flyball pitcher with a 0.46 GO/AO ratio in 2019.  That ought to be fun in Colorado.  I think the Dodgers had very high hopes for Jordan, but he never could sustain himself as a starting pitcher, and his control is too volatile for relief.  IMO he will be offered back to LAD, and AF will decline.  There is no upside for Jordan Sheffield as a Dodger.  He needs a new start with another team.

The Dodgers lost six players in the MiLB Phase, and selected two. The Rays also lost 6 players in the MiLB Phase.  NYY, Toronto, NYM, and Texas lost 4 each.  Three teams did not select any player in either the Major League Phase or the MiLB Phase.  Acquiring teams must pay $24,000 for each of their draftees.  There are no roster restrictions for the MiLB phase draftees.  Dodgers players lost in the Minor League Phase:

• Round 1 – Shea Spitzbarth (RHRP) goes to Pittsburgh (1^st overall MiLB pick)
• Round 1 – Tyler Gilbert (LHP) goes to Arizona
• Round 1 – Errol Robinson (SS/2B) goes to Cincinnati (Great news for Errol, I wish him lots of luck)
• Round 1 – Chris Roller (CF) goes to Cleveland
• Round 3 – Drew Jackson (SS/2B) goes to Mets
• Round 3 – Marcus Chiu (Utility) goes to Miami

MiLB Phase draftees are generally considered organizational depth.  They are not considered significant prospects.  A couple years back, Shea Spitzbarth was a star at ST, but could never distance himself from the other pitchers to distinguish himself as a legit MLB reliever.  He has been passed by a number of relievers in the LAD organization.  He gets a chance to start over in Pittsburgh, a team that needs a lot of pitching.

Another of my favorite people, Errol Robinson (26), was drafted in the 6^th round out of Ole’ Miss.  He started out well and moved fast.  He moved to AA in his first full year in professional ball (2017).  But he stalled.  In his third year at Tulsa (2019) he had a .310/.390/.400/.790 batting line, and was promoted to AAA where he struggled.  Errol has a great smile, and while I do not expect he will ever be a ML regular, he might make it as 26^th man with Cincinnati.  I wrote the following in August 2017 –  https://ladodgertalk.com/wp-admin/post.php?post=1813&action=edit

Drew Jackson (27) was drafted by Seattle in the 5^th round out of Stanford in 2015.  LAD acquired him in a trade that sent Chase De Jong to Seattle in March 2017.  This was Drew Jackson’s second time selected in the Rule 5 draft.  In 2018, Drew was selected by the Phillies in the Major League Phase.  He was immediately traded to Baltimore for future considerations.  He did not stick with Baltimore and was returned to the Dodgers.  Like Errol Robinson, he is listed as SS but plays quite a bit at 2B, and was being developed more in CF to become that Tim Locastro type utility player.  The Mets have a surplus of middle infielders who can be groomed to be that super utility player, but I hope that NYM gives him a good look in ST. 

Prior to ST last February, the Dodgers traded Kyle Garlick to Philadelphia for LHRP Tyler Gilbert (27).  Tyler was a 6^th round selection in the 2015 draft out of my alma mater, USC.  Obviously, I had my hopes up for Tyler.  And Gilbert has been a very effective reliever at AAA in both 2018 and 2019 with the Phillies.  In 351 IP. Tyler has a 3.36 ERA and a 1.171 WHIP.  He has a 4.17 SO/W ratio, and a fairly even GO/AO ratio of 1.06.  He was not invited to the USC alternative training site, so he has lost a full year of development.  Arizona does need relievers, so I expect Tyler to get a ST invite with a chance to make the roster.

Chris Roller (24) never piqued my radar too much.  He was a 30^th round pick in 2017 out of McLennan JC (TX).  He has reached as high as Low A at Great Lakes.  In 2019, he slashed .274/.359/.455/.814 at Great Lakes.  DC might be able to shed more light on Chris than I can.  Cleveland needs OF, and while he is not nearly close enough to be considered a candidate in 2021, I think he is worth a shot for Cleveland to see if they can develop him.

Marcus Chiu (24) is another that never piqued my interest.  He was a 15^th round pick out of Marin CC (CA) in 2017.  He played a full year at Rancho in 2019 where he hit .215/.341/.383/.724.  He plays 1B, 2B, 3B almost equally.  He has also played corner OF.  Marcus gets a chance with a very young organization that seems to be on the upswing.

Dodgers Acquired:

In the 1^st round of the MiLB Phase the Dodgers selected Catcher Ryan January from Arizona.  Ryan will be 24 in May and was an 8^th round draft pick in 2016 out of San Jacinto College.  He is a LH hitter. The Dodgers have selected multiple players out of San Jacinto College, so they probably have a well-respected scout in Texas who has seen him play.  He has played mostly at the Short Season Northwest League.  However in 2017, after a productive 2016 season in the Pioneer League, he was suspended 50 games for testing positive for the banned stimulant Amphetamine, and did not play at all in 2017.  He was a mid-season All-Star in the 2016 Pioneer League. 

A scouting report on him said,

“his pop from the left side of the plate is his best offensive tool and he was able to get to it fairly consistently with Missoula, even hitting four long balls in August as he tired out a bit.

“He played regularly behind the plate with Missoula and is eager to show he can stick there,” the report said. “He does have a strong arm, but the rest of his defensive game needs refinement.

The report also suggested that January “might be athletic enough to handle an outfield corner or a move to first, where his bat could profile well.”

In 2016 in junior college with the San Jacinto Gators, January hit .370 with five home runs, a team-high 11 doubles and 24 RBI during the regular season. He then hit a tournament-high four home runs during the JUCO World Series in June.

The Dodgers have lost several catchers in the last year, so Ryan looks to be very much organizational depth, with a potential upside down the road.  He has played very little professional ball. With 426 ABs, Ryan is batting .239/.361/.394/.755, 13 HRs and 53 RBIs.  He does strike out at a 30% clip.  Dodger prospect…HR power with a lot of swing and miss.

In the 2^nd round, the Dodgers selected OF Roimer Bolivar.  Bolivar is 21 (yesterday) and bats RH.  He comes from Caucagua, Venezuela.  He spent his first three professional seasons in the DSL.  He is the epitome of a lottery pick.  He is a speedy OF with little to zero power.  But he is another of those Venezuelan contact hitters.  In 651 PA he has 119 Ks and 80 BBs.  In 2019, he had 39 BBs and 30 Ks.  His batting lines have jumped every year:

• 2017 – .184/.286/.229/.515 – Age 17
• 2018  – .267/.367/.327/.694 – Age 18
• 2019 – .323/.471/.432/.903 – Age 19

No power, but a .471 OBP is quite impressive.  His career K rate is 18%, but for 2019 it was 14.7%.  He is a stolen base threat, that gets better every year in this category as well:

• 2017 – 11 SB, 8 CS
• 2018 – 12 SB, 7 CS
• 2019 – 15 SB, 5 CS

He was a tad older for the DSL, but I suspect that if he continues to put up impressive OBP numbers he should move quickly.  He will probably start out in the Arizona League, but hopefully move up to RC by year end.  I would like to see what he could do in Great Lakes as a 21 year old in 2022.

Overall the Dodgers netted $296,000 in cash on the Rule 5 Draft.