Would Your Rather?

Have you ever played the game “Would You Rather?” That is where you are given two choices, neither of which are particularly pleasant. Here’s a sampling:

• Would you rather lose the ability to read or lose the ability to speak?
• Would you rather have a golden voice or a silver tongue?
• Would you rather be covered in fur or covered in scales?
• Would you rather be in jail for a year or lose a year off your life?
• Would you rather have one real get out of jail free card or a key that opens any door?
• Would you rather know the history of every object you touched or be able to talk to animals?
• Would you rather be married to a 10 with a bad personality or a 6 with an amazing personality?
• Would you rather have all traffic lights you approach be green or never have to stand in line again?
• Would you rather give up all drinks except for water or give up eating anything that was cooked in an oven?
• Would you rather go back to age 5 with everything you know now or know now everything your future self will learn?
• Would you rather be able to dodge anything no matter how fast it’s moving or be able to ask any three questions and have them answered accurately?

There “Would you rather” questions are endless and are meant to spark your thinking as well as be confounding. So, I have one for you:

Would you Rather the Dodgers have 6 Top 100 MLB Prospects or 40 Top Prospects in an Insanely Deep System?

I do not believe this is a hypothetical question. I think it is an accurate summary of where the Dodgers Farms System ranks right about now. The Dodgers only have two or three TOP 100 Prospects. In the past, they have had as many as six. Last year they were rated a Top 5 Farm System. In my opinion, once you are Top 5, it’s highly subjective what your final ranking is… whether it be #2, #4 or #5. You are still a Top 5 Farm System.

So, that begs the question: Are the Dodgers a Top Five Farms System? Yesterday Jeff gave us a report from Baseball America, wherein Kyle Glazer of BA wrote this:

“The top of the Dodgers system isn’t as strong but it’s for the right reasons – they graduated their top four prospects last year to the majors, which is the point of all this. The strength of the system this year is its depth. You go all the way down to the late 20s and you’re looking at players who might be top 10 in some other systems. It’s a really good system still with a lot of good players. As for the Top 100, I think we’ll see the top three in there, but that’s my opinion and my colleagues may or may not agree. We’ll see how the final list shakes out once everyone’s input is gathered and front office officials provide their feedback.

Alex De Jesus, Kendall Williams, Jimmy Lewis, Leonel Valera, Landon Knack, Jerming Rosario, Yeiner Fernandez, Nick Robertson…all are breakout candidates who could shoot up in the next year. (Some of those guys are in the top 30, some aren’t.) Those are just the main candidates. This system is insanely deep in quality players who could break out in a big way.”

First of all, we need to remember that all of the above prospects are just that: PROSPECTS… maybe even SUSPECTS! That’s because you never know how they will develop. Luis Rodriguez was highly regarded as an 18-year-old in 2020, but has now fallen out of favor for several reasons. One of three things will happen: (1) He will stay there; (2) He will improve; or (3) He will continue his decline. We don’t know what we don’t know!

In 2018, here were the Dodgers Top 30 Prospects (According to Baseball America): By the way, I have every BA Prospect Handbook back to the beginning – 2000 to 2020.

1. Walker Buehler
2. Alex Verdugo
3. Keibert Ruiz
4. Mitch White
5. Yadier Alvarez
6. Yusniel Diaz
7. Jeren Kendall
8. DJ Peters
9. Will Smith
10. Dennis Santana
11. Dustin May
12. Edwin Rios
13. Gavin Lux
14. Jordon Sheffield
15. Trevor Oaks
16. Christian Santana
17. Starline Heredia
18. Conner Wong
19. Morgan Cooper
20. Caleb Ferguson
21. Matt Beaty
22. Imani Abdullah
23. Kyle Farmer
24. James Marinan
25. Josh Sborz
26. Luke Raley
27. Tim LoCastro
28. Errol Robinson
29. Drew Jackson
30. Yasiel Sierra

Some are gone, some are out of baseball or traded, but over half (16) have made it to the show. Not all are with the Dodgers, but if the Dodgers can have a 50% success rate on prospects making it to the show, everything will be just fine.

So far, four of these players look to be All-Stars (at least occasionally), and several others look to be solid players. Harold wrote about Nick Robertson yesterday, who was drafted as a reliever and likely will remain a reliever. He will be “fast-tracked” to the Show and I think you will see a lot more of this. Rather than go out and sign expensive relievers, paying for their history, draft and develop your own and save a lot of money. It makes a lot of sense.

Here’s the thing: If the Dodgers have the depth we think they do… and they really do… then the odds are about a third to half will make it to the show and at least two or three will be All-Stars… well if you have the depth the Dodgers do, maybe three to five will be All-Stars, so Would you Rather…?

A Sticky Subject – Watch This!

Yadiar Molina is so good defensively that he doesn’t need a glove. This is a big deal right about now and I think there will be some closure on this soon. Too much conjecture to talk about it now.

Put May and Gonsolin in the Pen

Did you realize that in 2010 and 2011, Chris Sale was a bullpen piece? He pitched nearly 100 innings in the bullpen those two years (71 in 2011) and to this day, has a better ERA as a reliever than a starter. Of course, he was a very, very good starter, but the point is: He started out his MLB career in the bullpen and even notched 12 saves, which is 9 more than the number of his complete games.

I see no reason why Dustin May, Tony Gonsolin, and/or Julio Urias could not flourish in the bullpen for the Dodgers in 2021. In addition, Edwin Uceta, Mitch White, and Josiah Gray may be better than any free agent reliever out there. I am not saying that they all will be in the bullpen, but some of them will be, and all of them could be. Oh, so could Gerardo Carrillo… and there might be some others that I don’t foresee. I can’t see all that insane depth.

For the record, due to the insane depth, I think the Dodgers are a Top 5 Farm System.

You Should Have Saved That Micky Mantle Card:

This is from TMZ:

MICKEY MANTLE BASEBALL CARD SELLS FOR $5.2 MILLION… Sets All-Time Record

How About Some Rock and Roll Music?