Winners and Losers

As we are getting ready to see who the Dodgers first opponent will be in the post season, it is extremely difficult for me to consume any negativity ascribed to the Dodgers after this season. No conditional statements…they were great. The best team in LA Dodgers history. I say LA Dodgers because the 1953 team that 105, did so with 8 less games. I still read from some how bad the bullpen is and yet while the bullpen did not perform at the elite level, the team won 106 games. Yes if Kenley had blown 2 less saves, LAD would have home field advantage throughout. I get that. The playoff bullpen could be made up with 4 starting pitchers (Maeda/Stripling/Urias/May or Gonsolin), and I agree that is not the basis for a great bullpen during the regular season. But this is not the regular season, so players are going to be asked to do tasks they would not normally do. How well they do them will dictate how far this team will go in the playoffs. I have confidence in the usage of starting pitchers in the playoffs. Would I rather have a lock down reliever, like say Will Smith? Sure, but we don’t. I will worry about the 2020 bullpen after the parade in Downtown LA this year.

This site has more upbeat fans than any other. sbuffalo stated “Friedman is the best in baseball and Dave Roberts is a special manager.” Those comments are getting a lot more ink this year, and it is great to see. I like tinkering so I suggest more transactions than Mark, but unless a player is actually traded, we have no idea as to what other teams may have valued that player. I am sure AF could have signed Bryce Harper for the mega millions and made a ton of fans happy. But Philadelphia did sign him, and just like he did in Washington, he came up short. The Nats essentially exchanged Victor Robles for Harper and added Patrick Corbin. But they made the playoffs and beat Philly to get the WC slot. How special that must have felt.

AF could have traded Belli for JT Realmuto, but decided against that. Great non-move for AF. I wanted Kluber, but Cleveland didn’t want to trade him. I have no idea how that would have worked out, but I am guessing that the return would have been too much for AF. Kluber was injured during a game, so we cannot assume that is what would have happened if he were a Dodger. I wanted DJLM. I am satisfied that the non-signing worked out for the Dodgers. If you believe the journalists, the Dodgers were looking to get Aaron Bummer from Chicago for Joc Pederson. Chicago wanted Joc but not at the expense of Bummer. There were other relievers involved (Jace Fry), but AF wanted Bummer, and the rumor was that Hahn said no. If the White Sox thought so highly of Bummer last winter, what do you think the cost will be this year. You may want players in a trade, but it always takes two teams to make a trade.

AF could have signed Manny Machado for mega millions, but just like Harper he is not playing for a playoff team. Signing Machado did not save Andy Green, and I doubt that Gabe Kapler gets retained. The respective GMs are covering up for their own misgivings.

Even though unarguably the best baseball player on the planet, Mike Trout, signed for 12 years, $426.5MM, the Angels are going nowhere. They still have Albert Pujols for 2 more years at $59MM ($24MM AAV), Justin Upton for 3 more years at $72MM, ($21.2MM AAV), Zach Cozart at $12.67MM for 1 year. Kole Calhoun has a club option at $14MM. Will they exercise that? With only 5 players with salary commitments (not Calhoun), they are already at a CBT threshold of $119MM. They have $89MM to play with not counting Calhoun’s $14MM. Will Arte Moreno go crazy again and give Gerrit Cole that $220MM + contract he will be asking for? Or does Cole look at the roster and say they are years away from truly contending. They only control Andrelton Simmons for one more year. Outside of Jo Adell, they have a poor farm system. They have 4 minor league prospects with a scouting grade of 50 or more. LAD has 13 (5 at 55+). Their current rotation is Andrew Heaney, Griffin Canning, Shohei Ohtani, and …And now LAA has fired Brad Ausmus. Did Ausmus create this mess or did Billy Eppler and Moreno?

Another big contract that was signed was Nolan Arenado; eight years $260MM. 4th place in the NL West. Charlie Blackmon and German Marquez both signed a team friendly contract. But now what do the Rockies do? They are still committed to Wade Davis for 1 more year ($17.33MM AAV), Ian Desmond for 2 more years ($14MM AAV), Daniel Murphy for 1 year ($12MM), Bryan Shaw for 1 year ($9MM), and Jake McGee for 1 year $9MM.

On the other hand the Dodgers extended Clayton Kershaw for three years, and signed AJ Pollock for five years ($12MM AAV) and Joe Kelly for three years ($8MM AAV). Contrary to what many think, $12MM AAV is not a burdensome contract for AJ Pollock. What AF did was to draw from his own organization. The Dodgers got significant impact from 6 rookies (Alex Verdugo, Will Smith, Matt Beaty, Dustin May, Tony Gonsolin, and Gavin Lux). They also had 3 other rookies that helped (Edwin Rios, Kyle Garlick, and Josh Sborz). I think Rios and Garlick are good enough to be considered in a package (with an established ML player) for a significant upgrade this winter. I think Sborz gets a legit shot at the bullpen next year. His first two appearances were horrific, but 4 out of his last 5 were outstanding. He is not a late inning high leverage candidate, but he is a ML middle reliever who can go more than 1.0 IP. He showed enough to get a legit look in ST.

Two teams that sold out for a shot at the prize went home early this year; Chicago Cubs and Boston Red Sox. Two teams going in opposite direction as compared to the Dodgers. The Cubs fired their manager while the Red Sox fired their President of Baseball Operations. But now what do the teams do?

The Red Sox were $36MM over the CBT in 2019. They are making it a priority to get under the CBT in 2020 with very little wiggle room. They currently have 7 players committed to $151MM CBT, with the Red Sox extending Chris Sale for 5 years at $145MM (2020-2024); Xander Bogaerts 6 years at $120MM (2020-2025), and Christian Vazquez 3 years at $13.5MM (2019-2021). Last winter, they signed Nathan Eovaldi for 4 years at $68MM (2019-2022). They also have a dead contract with Dustin Pedroia with 2 more years at $13.75MM each. JDM can give them some breathing room if he believes he can make more than $62.5MM over the next three years, and opts out. I think that is a given, and I am sure that Boston is hoping that he does opt out, giving them an additional $22MM of AAV latitude, and to achieve their reported goal of getting below CBT.

The Red Sox farm system has one minor league prospect in the top 100 (Triston Casas 1B/3B #85). They do have 10 prospects with a scouting grade of 50 or better, but only 1 at 55. With limited free agent money and an average farm system, I do not see them in the market for high priced free agents or elite players in a trade. I am not saying that Andrew Friedman would even consider Boston, but you know they are going to ring his phone.

The Cubs are in a very similar situation. They are $34MM over the CBT in 2019. They have fixed contract costs of:
Jon Lester $25.833MM (1 year)
Jason Heyward – $86MM 4 years ($23MM AAV)
Yu Darvish – $81MM for 4 years ($21MM AAV)
Tyler Chatwood – $12.667MM (1 year)
Craig Kimbrel – $32MM for 2 years ($14.33MM AAV)
Kyle Hendricks – $54MM for 4 years ($13.875MM AAV)
David Bote – $15MM for 5 years ($3MM AAV)
Daniel Descalso – $2.5MM for 1 year.

The Cubs also have 2 players with options that will assuredly get picked up:
Anthony Rizzo – $14.5MM
Jose Quintana – $10.5MM

With those two options exercised, that will give the Cubs a CBT amount of $159.5MM for 10 players.

The Cubs have two minor league prospects ranked in the top 100. They have 10 prospects with grades of 50 or better, including 2 at 55.

Dave Roberts has now directed the Dodgers to 100 win seasons in two of his four years. He has made it to the NLCS three times in three tries, and made it to the WS in the last two years. But he needs to finish to be considered an elite manager. The team can win it all or get bounced in the first round.

Two ways of building a roster. The Cubs went away from building from within and are now drifting. Theo has done it twice before, so he is capable of turning the ship. The Red Sox have tried to spend their way to a championship the last several years and to trade highly sought after prospects for proven ML talent. They are young enough to still be relevant and build their farm system if they get the right general. With Andrew Friedman and Dave Roberts, the Dodgers are an elite team that has not yet closed the deal. I do not fear any team, but only the fan with the rosiest colored glasses can call the Dodgers a better team than the Astros going into the playoffs. But the best team does not always win. Will 2019 be the year for the Dodgers? I say yes!!!