Will the Real Keibert Ruiz Please Step Up?

KayBear Ruiz was signed at the tender age of 16 for $140,000 on his birthday, July 20, 2014. In 2015, he hit .300 for the Dominican Dodgers at age 16. In 2016, he split time between Ogden and Arizona, hitting a combined .374 with a .412 OB%. He was still just 17. Before the 2017 season, and still just 18 years old, Ruiz was named the #20 prospect in the Dodgers Farm System.

That year, between Great Lakes and Rancho Cucamonga, Keibert proceeded to hit .316 with a .361 OB%, causing him to be the #3 ranked Dodger Prospect, behind Walker Buehler and Alex Verdugo. Baseball America gave Ruiz a 60 Rating, while Verdugo at #2 was a 55. For the record, Striker Buehler was given a 65 rating. At 60, Ruiz was considered a “Plus” Prospect. He hit 8 HR is 2017 as he seemed to be learning elevate his swing. BA wrote this about him:

“Ruiz has to shore up his throwing and become a more consistent reciever. If he does, he has a chanceto be an extraordinarily valuable switch-hitting , middle-of-the-order catcher.”

In 2108, Ruiz spent the entire season at Tulsa, where, as a 19-year-old, he hit .268 with a .328 OB% and hit 12 HR. In 415 AB’s he walked 26 times and struck out 33 times. That’s an otherworldly strikeout rate! He then went to the Arizona Fall League where he proceeded to hit .286 with a .357 OB% and struck out just 2 times in 56 AB’s.

The future looked very bright heading into 2019 and Baseball America ranked him the Dodgers #1 Prospect at the ripe old age of 20! He projected as an excellent defensive catcher and it was easy to say that his occasional mental lapses could likely be attributed to his youth.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dYjzKpPBu6s

In 2018, the Dodgers re-tooled Will Smith’s swing and he nearly doubled his home run total. It only stood to reason that they could do the same thing with Keibert. However, it did not happen. Ruiz repeated AA again and regressed in some ways. Near the end of the season, when Will Smith was called up to LA, Kaybear was called up to OKC and hit .316 with a .350 OB% in 40 plate appearances. He also hit 2 HR and struck out just once in 40 AB’s. His season was cut short due to a broken hand. Was he finally figuring it out or was it just the juiced ball?

So, what can we expect from Ruiz? BA downgraded him to a 55 Prospect Rating. Good, but no longer great. The issue is whether he will be able to transition into a power hitter who strikes out more frequently. Therein lies a problem… I believe. We have history to look at. Will Smith, who is 4 years older has 6 seasons in college, the minors and in MLB. Let’s look at Smith’s stats:

2,030 PA 227 BB 405 SO .260 BA .363 OB%

Compare Will Smith to Keibert’s 5 seasons:

1,636 PA 104 BB 150 SO .299 BA .351 OB%

Ruiz rarely walks and even more rarely… strikes out. I have watched many games with Ruiz… and his bat-to-ball skills are second to none. However, is that a skill that will help a slow-footed catcher? It might help Terrance Gore, but Ruiz? I am no longer so sure.

If I were the Dodgers, I would quit trying to “re-tool” his swing. Elite bat-to-ball skill is rare. I see what his stats are and that’s one thing… but what about the “eye test?” To me, he passes. Today BA has Keibert ranked again as the Dodgers #3 Prospect:

“Ruiz will try to get back on track at Triple-A in 2020. He’s still far ahead of most catchers his age and has a chance to make his major leagie debut by 22. ”

That’s why I say, “This is a make or break year for Ruiz.” It’s not like he’s done if he doesn’t do something spectacular, but while progression is not linear, I believe that this year is vital to his development. If he doesn’t step it up a notch or two, then he is destined to be a career backup… and while that ain’t chopped liver, it wasn’t what I thought Keibert Ruiz would be.

I believed Kaybear would be a star: a switch-hitting middle-of-the-order catcher who plays in an occasional All-Star game. I am not giving up on his being that player… yet. However, if I am wrong, I’ll have to add another one to Andy LaRoche – I still haven’t figured out what happened to him.

We will watch Ruiz at OKC and I know that I will be tuning in a lot. OKC should be loaded this year and not with just AAAA players like past years. I am still a fan of Ruiz, but I hope Will Smith can duplicate what he did last year… the thing is, I am not convinced he will. He still has some big holes in his swing. He has struck out 7 times in his 19 AB’s this spring. That’s concerning, even though it’s a small sample. That’s what I see…. and really hope I am wrong. We are about to find out. The good news is: Austin Barnes looks like he might have remembered how to hit… finally… maybe.

Dodger Spring Training Rants & Raves

• Baez, Kelly, Graterol, Alexander, Gonsolin, Santana, Ferguson, Stripling, Treinen, and Jansen are all pitching at a high level (already) and all of them can’t make the team. What a great problem! Friedman has quietly fixed the bullpen… and it could be a real strength this season.
• David Price was allegedly hitting 94-95 MPH and looked like an Ace. He looks better than I have seen him in years.
• The possibility exists that Gavin Lux will not make the 26-man roster at the start of the season. Not saying he won’t… just that the possibility exists. He can hit his way on or off the roster.
• Zach McKinstry deserves to make the team. He is playing the way Lux is supposed to.
• Chris Taylor has made the most of his opportunities.
• 3 of Kike’s 5 hits are HR’s and he still frustrates many fans with his tantalizing clutch hits only to look lost at other times.
• At some point, there will be trades. The Dodgers have too many prospects ready right now and could “reset” by trading for some younger prospects… or not.
• I remain unconvinced that AJ Pollock will add anything significant to the team this year. I still believe he was a mistake… show me otherwise!
• Russell Martin is still out there….
• Jimmy Nelson has resumed baseball activities and will allegedly throw a bullpen session today.
• This place is becoming Animal House… a Bear and Badger? I think we are better for it. Welcome you filthy animals! I think the picture below is pretty accurate…

Today’s Music