Who Will Be LAD #2?

I cannot see the Dodgers signing Josh Donaldson.  He reportedly has two pending four year deals (Twins and Washington).  But the Braves have right of last refusal (meaning that is where he wants to play), but they are going to need to guarantee that 4th year, which they are contemplating right now.  There is no reason for the Dodgers to continue to chase their tails here.  JT is a quality 3B, and the infield can stay intact, and Lux can have a legit showcase.  I say that also believing that LAD will not land Frankie Lindor.  I think Mookie Betts is a more realistic option, even if that is just as remote.

I still believe the biggest need for the Dodgers is a #2 starting pitcher to lodge between Buehler and Kershaw.  Now that Cole and Strasburg have signed, I do not know who that will be.  With Wheeler,  Keuchel, Bumgarner, and Ryu all signed, the choices are the highest rated FA starting pitcher, Alex Wood for a pillow contract, or through trade. Alex is not the answer, thus only a trade can bring in a quality proven starter.

Who might these top of the rotation potentially available starting pitchers be?  I am going to exclude all of the NL West teams because they will do nothing to help LAD.  AZ may trade Robbie Ray, but not to the Dodgers.  I do not see Colorado moving German Marquez or Jon Gray, and especially not to the LAD.

NL Central:

St. Louis is a contender who is not going to move any of the starters much less any of their top three, Jack Flaherty, Miles Mikolas, or Dakota Hudson.

Chicago Cubs – Kyle Hendricks just signed a four year extension for little dollars, and Chicago is not going to trade him. A declining Jon Lester or Jose Quintana?  Pass. An overpriced Yu Darvish? Been there done that.

Cincinnati? They believe they will contend and are trying to build a rotation, not sell. They are not moving Luis Castillo, Sonny Gray, or Trevor Bauer.  Who wants Tyler Mahle?  Raise a hand.  If out of contention, the Reds can be revisited at trade deadline.

Milwaukee – Who?  They are always in a rebuilding mode for starting pitchers.  Brandon Woodruff is the only pitcher in their arsenal who could break the Dodgers rotation, and he is going nowhere.

Pittsburgh – Who?  Joe Musgrave?  Pass.  Chris Archer? Pass.  Chris Archer may be an exceptional citizen, but he is no longer a good pitcher.  He could not break the current LAD rotation.

NL East:

Washington – They are not moving any of their top three; Scherzer, Strasburg, Corbin.

Philadelphia – They are contenders and after signing Zach Wheeler they believe they are closer.  They are not moving Aaron Nola.  Who wants Jake Arrieta or Zach Eflin or Nick Piveta?  They are not an upgrade over the Dodgers starters.

NYM – They also believe they are contending.  Jacob deGrom, Thor, Marcus Stroman, Rick Porcello, and Steven Matz.  The best chance the Dodgers have of getting anyone other than deGrom is at the trade deadline.  A better opportunity for relievers if LAD is willing to do an overpay for Edwin Diaz or Seth Lugo.

Atlanta – They are looking to add Josh Donaldson (or Nolan Arenado or Kris Bryant), to solidify their lineup, so they are not about to move any of Mike Soroka, Max Fried, Mike Foltynewicz, or Cole Hamels.  They would like to add a reliable 5^th not trade one of their top 4.  If the Dodgers want Sean Newcomb or Kyle Wright, I am sure both could be available, but it would not be an improvement in the Dodgers rotation in 2020.  Could be interesting reliever candidates.

Marlins – Their best is Caleb Smith, and he is not an improvement over any of the potential LAD starters.  Jose Urena?  Maybe for relief.

AL East:

NYY – With Gerrit Cole and Luis Severino, the Yankees have a formidable one-two punch.  James Paxton and Masahiro Tanaka are not special but are capable of special games.  But IMO no more so than Maeda, Urias, May, Stripling, or Gonsolin.  They are nearly $50MM above the CBT threshold and are desperately trying to move JA Happ.  I would take a chance on Happ if they included Deivi Garcia, but not without Garcia.  No team should help NYY by taking Happ without an extreme overpay.

Boston – David Price?  Not without Mookie Betts coming to LA and Pollock going to Boston, plus money coming from Boston to defray some of Price’s salary.  Chris Sale has cemented himself in Boston with that contract.  No on Nathan Eovaldi.  I would consider Eduardo Rodriguez, but again he is not a #2.

Toronto – They are building a rotation, not selling.

Tampa Bay – Tyler Glasnow? Blake Snell?  Not happening.  Charlie Morton?  I would gladly add Morton, but he has indicated that he would retire rather than accept a trade.  But it would be worth testing his mettle with this demand.

Baltimore – Outside of John Means, who may be a one year wonder, Baltimore does not have any starting pitching the Dodgers should consider.

AL Central:

Cleveland – Mike Clevinger would be an upgrade, but I would disagree that he is a better #2 than is Kershaw.  Okay, maybe #2A and #2B. I know some disagree, but AF should absolutely walk away if Cleveland insists on Lux and/or May even with Lindor.  I know that there will be those that will blame somebody (AF, Kasten, Mark Walter…) but I cannot see why Cleveland would trade Clevinger without an extreme overpay and AF has never done that.  They are not moving Shane Bieber.  Carlos Carrasco? Well past his prime.  Zach Plesac and Adam Plutko may someday be very good pitchers but not good enough this year.

Detroit – Matthew Boyd may be a decent pitcher, but he is barely at the level of Kenta Maeda much less Clayton Kershaw. 

Chicago and Minnesota – Both believe they are contenders and will not be trading any of their rotation that they are trying to build.

KC – I would only consider 23 year old Brad Keller but only as a future prospect who doesn’t have as high of a ceiling as any of May, Gonsolin, Urias, Gray.  KC would move Danny Duffy and AF should run as far as he can.  KC will try to rebuild with Keller not trade him.

AL West:

Houston – As I previously mentioned, depending on what the punishment is for their cheating, Zack Greinke may be available, and I do not believe he would say no if he were traded to LAD.  At $24MM/year for two years, he should more than match that value.  Houston is well above the CBT threshold and again depending on the punishment may be willing to move Greinke.  Two years of Greinke at $24MM each is better than Verlander at $33MM/year for two years.

LAA, Texas, and Oakland – All three believe they are contenders and will not be trading any of their rotation that they are trying to build. All three teams are adding starters, and only Texas seems to have anyone of interest. AF may wait for the trade deadline to see who might be available from Texas.

Seattle – I might inquire about Marco Gonzalez, but it would be a stretch to call him a #2.  At 27 and 203 IP, he is more of a mid-rotation starter.  But being pre-arbitration and controlled for four years, Seattle is not likely to move him.  He is exactly who they want to build around. Overall, they are trying for an upgrade by revisiting Taijuan Walker.

I know some of you believe that AF should have offered Cole $400MM, but you need to get past believing that AF blew it.  I said Cole was a NYY last year, and nothing has changed.  Strasburg was staying in Washington, and Wheeler’s wife wanted the east coast.  MadBum wanted his horse ranch in AZ.  The only FA starting pitcher that the Dodgers had a chance at was Ryu, but not at four years/$80MM. 

I know we fans are frustrated, but so is AF.  When other teams are demanding Gavin Lux and Dustin May what is AF supposed to do?  I know, I know.  It is his job to figure something out.  Above are the potential pitchers and most are not available, so who would you trade Lux and/or May for? Greinke?  Clevinger? Price?  Marco Gonzalez?  Matthew Boyd? Caleb Smith?  John Means?  Brad Keller?

Now that those foolish cheap Dodgers did not offer Gerrit Cole $400MM right out the gate, who will be LAD #2? I still say it will be an angry and embarrassed Clayton Kershaw. I think the best option might be to simply wait until the trade deadline and to see what rental may be available. Concentrate on a RH bat and relievers before ST. Now that Shaggy has been released, that opens a spot. Will Harris? Ken Giles?

If a starting pitcher is added before ST, he may be a back of the rotation innings eater to save IP for the youngsters, and someone who could possibly shift to relief for the second half. AF is not going to trade the two players the trading teams want…Gavin Lux and Dustin May, unless they get an extreme overpay.