Who Will Be LAD #2?

First of all, I agree with nearly everything that you have written. The reason that the market was so strong for starting pitchers this off-season is that ace or near ace quality pitching is a scarce commodity and Cole is a true ace and Strasburg is an ace or close. He has ace quality stuff even if the results aren’t always there. I think that was the buzz around Wheeler – the numbers haven’t shown it but his stuff is great and he has the potential upside of an ace. Ryu had ace results in the last 1 1/2 seasons but his age and health made a 4 year commitment iffy.

You can frame it any way that you want to but the Dodgers’ starting rotation this year will be weaker than last year’s version was, at least at the start of the season. 2019’s #5 (Maeda) becomes defacto #3. I expect that Stripling will be in the rotation at the beginning of the season – he knows how to pitch as a major league starter and he will be #4 or 5, to be replaced later in the season. They have committed to Urias as a starter this year so he’s the other guy. But he threw 78 innings last year and no matter what Mark says he won’t pitch 170 this year. The Dodgers are believers in the Verducci effect (or something similar)so they will monitor his innings closely this year. Buehler’s 1st full season in MLB resulted in only 137 IP. I expect that Urias will throw a similar number in 2020.

So the Dodgers will have 2 ace quality starters at the top of the rotation, Maeda who famously fades down the stretch and will make up 2 slots in the rotation with some combination of Urias, May, Stripling and Gonsolin, at least until the deadline.

Kershaw is still an ace. He made more starts last season (28) than in any year since 2015. His numbers (16 – 5, 3.03, 1.04 WHIP, 189K in 178 IP) are ace quality and are only bad by his Hall of Fame standards.

There is no pitcher other than Cole or Strasburg who would have a chance of bettering numbers like that.

David Price only becomes a Dodger if part of a deal for Betts and the Dodgers take on salary in lieu of sending as many prospects to the Bosox. Last year Price was 7 – 5, 4.28 with a 1.314 WHIP. His last full season (2018) he was 16 – 7, 3.58 with a WHIP of 1.142. His FIP was over 4.00. He will be 34 at the start of the 2020 season. He might be an OK #3, but maybe not, and he is currently owed another $96 MM and 3 more seasons. I would rather have had Ryu for 4 years and $80 MM than Price for 3 years and $96 MM.

Interestingly, the Giants (Cueto), Dbacks (Ray) and Rox (Gray) all have pitchers that they may want to move. I agree with you about the difficulty of trading in the division, but I suspect that Zaidi would trade to the Dodgers. Cueto is owed 2 years, $43.7 MM with an option for 2022 vs. a buy-out of $5MM. I have no idea if he has anything left but he would be a potential option I think. He is old, infirm and expensive – I don’t expect a trade now but at the deadline he would be interesting if he shows he has anything left.

No way the ‘Stros trade Greinke – they obtained him last year because they knew they weren’t going to keep Cole past 2019.

This was the reason that the Dodgers needed to sign an ace or near ace this off-season. They didn’t so now it’s on to Plan B.

Walker Buehler is our ace. Walker Buehler started Game 1 vs Washington and dominated. Walker Buehler started Game 5 vs Washington and dominated. Clayton Kershaw was his usual October self in Game 2, and flat out failed in the 8th inning of game 5, resulting in a 7 ERA during last season’s playoffs. That is not ace material whatsoever. Walker Buehler has supplanted Kershaw as our ace, and will deservingly start on March 26 vs SF (barring injury).

I said this the other day as well, and AC eloquently stated it today: now that there’s no #1/#2 type starter available as a free agent, there’s no need for us to sign a 4/5. Go with what we have, which is still better than most and better than anyone in our division. Come July, let’s hope the Mets suck and that deGrom , Thor, etc are there for the taking. At that point, we can make our July splash and get our co ace.

I think it’ll be exciting to see what Urias and May can do as starters for the first few months of the year. By July, we’ll know what we need. And who knows, it might be that we need a closer more than we need a #2!!

The D-Bags got the Astros 3rd, 4th, 5th and 22nd ranked prospects including 2 pitchers. So, you’re not gonna get him for a box of peanuts. Just for comparison’s sake. Right now that would look like Ruiz, Gray, Downs and Carillo. Of course, we would have less control, 2 years vs 2.5 so maybe take Downs out of the deal?

My thinking is in lockstep with yours AC, as usual. I’ve also mentioned Greinke with regard to the Astros potential penalties and would love to have him back here. I’ve always been a huge fan of his – every part of his game.

The one area where I might disagree slightly with you is Colorado’s supposed reluctance to trade with an NL West rival. If they’re being honest with themselves, they are not going to contend over the next few seasons, so if AF would give them some really good pieces they could build on (not on the Lux/May level), I think they should seriously consider moving one of their starters if the Dodgers call.

I’d rather have Verlander at 33 than Grienke at 24. I would take a flier on Archer or Tijuan Walker, both still have good stuff and are high upside types.

The biggest thing in my mind is the trouble Roberts will have managing these kids and his tendency for a quick hook resulting in bullpen over use.

ESPN ranked rotations recently and they had the Dodgers coming in 10th. Of course, I think this is really low and it was a “insider” article, so I didn’t have access to read who was in front of them. But, I understand their reluctance to give Urias and May high projections after not being in the rotation last year. The bottom line for me is to try to answer the simple question…

Is Urias, May and Gonsolin going to out produce Ryu and Hill? If the answer is yes, than I think the staff will be tops in the NL. If the answer is no, then we might fall a bit, but we would still have a chance to be better in the post-season. After all, I don’t think Hill’s 2.2 inning performance will be hard to top.

Young pitchers are very unpredictable. Ramon Martinez put up his best year as a 22 year old. Chan Ho Park was 14-8 as a 24 year old and that year looked very comparable to Ryu’s season last year. Darren Dreifort a number 2 overall pick with really nasty stuff never put it all together. You never know what you have, but Urias, May and Gonsolin all had some success last year and looked as good, or better than Ramon, Chan Ho and Darren in limited action last year. Gray put up numbers rarely seen from a 21 year old in his first pass across three Minor League levels. I don’t think it’s out of the question to see him next year, but will he keep dominating at the highest level? This is the biggest haul of young arms that I’ve ever seen, so I can see why the Dodgers are reluctant to block them. But, is that how you build a rotation for World Series aspirations? Signing a high upside arm will help reduce some risk in a big way.

As far as the “Older” or returning pieces go, I don’t see a steep decline from Kershaw. He’s smart and he works as hard as just about anyone. I can see him having a better year next year just as easily as a worse year. Bueller will be better next year. He had a slow walk Spring at it showed at the beginning of the season. I think all of our guys should be setup of a normal Spring. Kenta is steady if anything, so we can expect similar results this year. Stripling is an option, but he doesn’t have great stuff like the others.

When it’s all said and done, I think the rotation will be on top of the NL. There may be some bumps in the road and the depth isn’t quite as deep, but the talent is there.

AC, I agree with you on almost everything, as the rotation stands today I would go with the 5 the Dodgers pick coming out of spring training. I also agree with you on the chances of the Dodgers making a trade for Lindor or Betts and I don´t see Castellanos in left unless the Dodgers can move Pollock and I don´t see that happening.

I can think of two trades that could get the Dodgers the RH bat they need. The Dodgers could check with the Cubs and see how realistic they are on moving Bryant, if they are and want to make a fair trade that is good for both teams (

probability not) than the Dodgers could play Bryant in left field and keep Turner at third for this season.This trade most likely falls in with the Lindor and Betts trades. I would also check with Baltimore on a trade involving Muncy and RH bat Tim Mancini.

Dodger Digest was suggesting the Dodgers take a chance on Jimmy Nelson, saying that he has #2 stuff. Given he was non tendered by the Brewers gives me pause. AF didn’t resign Ryu ,to some extent, because of possible injury concerns. Should the Dodgers take a chance given that the Brewers, who know Nelson better, let him go?

Jeff,

I think you nailed it as to options for the Dodgers rotation. There really aren’t many upgrades out there which is a tribute to the quality of the rotation. As it stands, the Dodgers rotation is TOP 10 in all of baseball and could be TOP 3, depending upon performance.

I think where you missed it is who the #2 will be. Striker Buehler will be the #2 with Clayton being the #1… at least at the start of the season. Unless he is injured, Clayton Kershaw will be on the mound on Opening Day at Dodger Stadium, March 26th.

I think this is his last year as the Ace and I hope he can evolve and be even better than last year. Fewer first-pitch strikes and maybe he can finally learn a changeup. I think in 2021, Julio Urias may well be the #2.

Depending upon how the season goes, there could be some good starting pitching otions available at the Trade Dedline.

Not sure Greinke is a #2 anymore….