What Really Happened…

If you didn’t see this yesterday, here is a very insightful comment from Vinny’s Ghost:

“The baseball playoffs are like choosing the 100-meter finalist in the Olympics from marathon runners.”

That actually sums it up, Vinny! That is a very good analogy. However, if this format sticks, then the Dodgers, along with the Braves and the Orioles, are going to have to adjust. The Dodgers sat out for a week after clinching the title halfway through September. The Braves clinched four days earlier than the Dodgers, but sitting out the Wild Card Week did both teams in. Both items will be back strong next year, and both teams will come up with a way to circumvent that problem. Of that, I am confident.

To me, the format is grossly unfair to teams that have spent the money to win, like the Dodgers and the Braves. The Diamondbacks have some good players because they tanked for several years and drafted at the top of the draft. Baltimore also won 100 games this year because they tanked for years.

More Bruce Bochy

I have seen no less than a dozen articles or blogs today that say, “Bruce Bochy Going Back to World Series, Bruce Bochy Does it Again, Bruce Bochy is Back,” and yadda, yadda, yadda. Bruce is a good manager because he has to be around as long as he has. You don’t last 26 years without being good. He has also been to and won the World Series… a lot! But this begs the question: Is Texas going to the World Series because of Bochy, or is Bochy going because of Texas? I think Bruce Bochy and Dave Roberts are two very similar guys in their management style. They are players’ managers, and both are noted for their clubhouse harmony. They are cordial, even keel, and players love to play for them. Bochy has had the bad luck of being on some bad teams, while Roberts has generally had very good teams to manage.

However, there are some people who just have a knack for being in the right place at the right time… or even the wrong place at the wrong time. For example, former American park ranger Roy C. Sullivan, holds the record for The Most Lightning Strikes Survived. Born in 1912, Roy worked as a Park Ranger in Shenandoah National Park in his native Virginia. He was hit by lightning an amazing seven times – and survived every time! Bruce Bochy has been the beneficiary of a few lightning strikes. I could list them, but I am not going to belabor the point.

Red Auerbach, Phil Jackson, Joe Torre, Sparky Anderson, Tony LaRussa, and many other managers and coaches who are Hall-of-Fame Caliber also got there because they had great players. Was it the players that made them great or them that made the players great? Maybe both! It’s the classic chicken or the egg debate. At any rate, when players perform, like Seager and Garcia, the manager looks smarter than hell. When they don’t perform, like Betts and Freeman, they look dumber than a bag of hammers. When I see headlines giving Bochy the glory, it makes me mad – the Rangers Players delivered and that discredits them. Just my two cents.

A few years ago, a writer named Neil Paine wrote an article entitled “Most Managers Are Headed to the Hall of Mediocrity.“ In it, he wrote this:

Criticizing baseball managers is a pastime as American as baseball itself. Players make their share of gaffes, but few mistakes are dissected with as much scrutiny as those made by the men in the dugout, especially during the postseason. Whether it’s his faulty in-game tactical choices or just the vague sense that he’s lost control of the clubhouse, the manager is an easy target. (As the old saying goes, you can’t fire the players.)

Yet sabermetrics tells us that most dugout decisions barely have any effect on the outcome of the game. Furthermore, if we look at effects on player performance, it’s evident that hardly any manager can distinguish himself from his counterparts. Based on my analysis, 95 percent of all managers are worth somewhere between -2 and +2 wins per 162 games. Last year alone, 21 batters and seven pitchers were worth more to their teams than nearly every manager of the last 112 years.

— Neil Paine

It’s a fascinating read, and there are lots of other similar articles like it on the web. Paine ends with this:

As is always the case with calculations like these, it’s too simplistic to look at the small range of talent and conclude that Major League managers don’t matter. These findings do, however, help to underscore the brutal inefficiency of the manager market.

The hirings and firings, the manager merry-go-round every offseason, the relentless second-guessing — all are relatively pointless. You can’t prove that your team’s manager is any better or worse than average. Come to peace with that, and go back to worrying about the players.

— Neil Paine

Well, we can’t fire Mookie and Freddie – we can only hope that they are so ashamed that they come out next offseason and atone for the 2022 and 2023 debacles. We can also hope that MLB changes the format, and they will… the only question is when? Eric brought up the issue of expansion yesterday, and that will likely happen in the next three years. Hopefully, they will have two leagues with four divisions of four teams, and the division winner will play for the right to go to the World Series. On the other hand, I think Rob Manfred is fully capable of screwing it up.

It’s too bad that the World Series won’t have any of the major teams this year because I know that a lot of people who did not like to watch baseball are suddenly starting to again. The new rules have sparked renewed interest because they have increased the pace of play, shortened games, and created more action. It’s a downer that the Series will be between two teams who really should not be there, and I say that with all due respect. I will watch every out and play that I can. I love the new style of play, and I love baseball. I just love the Dodgers more!

One Final Note…

It seems to me that many of you are down on the Dodgers Farm System right about now. As I have mentioned, the Dodgers have drafted at the bottom of the rounds each year for the past ten years or so. This means that we can’t expect anything but an occasional superstar out of that. However, the system is loaded with role-players and players who will be very good and even an occasional All-Star. Bobby Miller has the opportunity to be a Superstar. Ryan Pepiot can be a nice #3 or #4 starter. Will Smith is an All-Star. Emmet Sheehan has the upside of a #2, and then there are a plethora of players down on the farms who inspire a lot of hope, including Miguel Vargas, Michael Busch, and Jonny DeLuca – all of whom will have opportunities next season. Could some be traded? Sure, but let me remind you that progress is not linear.

Adolis Garcia was a late bloomer, and baseball is full of players who failed on their first, second, and even third callups, only to thrive later. Here’s a list of players to watch (I’ll talk about them later in the offseason). Other than the aforementioned prospects, here are guys you need to look at:

1. Kyle Hurt 
2. Landon Knack 
3. Gavin Stone 
4. Andy Pages 
5. Nick Frasso 
6. Yenier Fernandez 
7. Ronan Kopp 
8. Hunter Feduccia 
9. Diego Cartaya 
10. Dalton Rushing
11. Justin Wroblesk 
12. River Ryan 
13. Austin Gauthier 
14. Jorbit Vivas
15. Jake Pilarski 
16. Jake Gelof 
17. Thayron Liranzo 
18. Josue De Paula
19. Wilman Diaz 
20. Kendall George 
21. Joendry Vargas 
22. Maddux Bruns 
23. Damon Keith 
24. Jose Ramos 
25. Jarod Karros 
26. Peyton Martin 
27. Rayne Doncon 

There are others, too, but the younger you go, the harder they are to project.

Notice:

Bear aka/Michael Norris, is going to take some time off. He will get back to us when he can. Godspeed, Old Bear!