What Next? If Not 2020, When?

2020 is a critical year for LAD. That window is closing a bit, and what they do to prepare for 2020 will dictate whether they open it a bit more or nail it shut. Perhaps the team does not spend smart, but they are not cheap. After getting under the CBT for 2018, they went back over in 2019. Because of vesting bonuses, Clayton Kershaw ($3MM) and Kenta Maeda ($5.4), the Dodgers hit $209.8MM in AAV, taking them $3.8MM past the CBT. The team will lose a lot of salary for 2020, but they will be approaching the CBT again in 2020. Will they let the CBT be a deterrent to make the team better?

Currently the Dodgers have 6 players with signed contracts going into the season totaling an AAV of $86.5MM:

1. Clayton Kershaw – $31MM
2. Kenley Jansen – $16MM
3. Justin Turner – $16MM
4. AJ Pollock – $12MM
5. Joe Kelly – $8.333MM
6. Kenta Maeda – $3.125MM

Per MLB Trade Rumors, currently the Dodgers have 12 players with salary arbitration, projected to be $53MM:

1. Pedro Baez – $3.3MM (3rd year)
2. Kike’ Hernandez – $5.5MM (3rd year)
3. Joc Pederson – $8.5MM (3rd year)
4. Yimi Garcia – $1.1MM (3rd year – Super 2 so has a 4th year)
5. Chris Taylor – $5.0MM (2nd year)
6. Corey Seager – $7.1MM (2nd year)
7. Ross Stripling – $2.3MM (1st year)
8. Austin Barnes – $1.3MM (1st year)
9. Scott Alexander – $1.0MM (1st year)
10. Max Muncy – $4.6MM (1st year)
11. Cody Bellinger – $11.6MM (1st year)
12. Julio Urias – $1.7MM (1st year)

That is a $30.6MM increase over their 2019 salaries. There is a discrepancy with Urias. While MLB Trade Rumors has him eligible for arbitration in 2020, both Cots and Baseball Reference shows that he is not eligible until 2021. But for this exercise, I will leave him as arbitration eligible.

That is 18 Dodgers with either guaranteed contracts or projected arbitration settlements totaling $139.5MM. With player benefits projected to be $15.0MM, the Dodger AAV before the rest of the roster is determined sits at approximately $154.5MM. The 2020 CBT is at $208MM. That gives the Dodgers about $53.5MM of additional spending without exceeding the CBT.

With rosters expanding to 26 for 2020, that leaves 8 still to be included. With some certainties and probables these should/could include:

1. Walker Buehler
2. Alex Verdugo
3. Will Smith
4. Matt Beaty
5. Gavin Lux
6. Caleb Ferguson
7. Dustin May
8. Tony Gonsolin

Others that will be considered:

1. Adam Kolarek
2. Dylan Floro
3. Edwin Rios

What Next?

1.Many of the above will not be on the roster come March 26 (opening day against the Giants), but projecting who those will be, will be all over the map by many.  Let’s assume that the final roster additions will cost $3.5MM, leaving $50MM for increase in salaries before reaching the CBT.  That leaves room for at least one elite FA, and my choice would be Gerrit Cole.  Pitchers like Gerrit Cole do not become available all that often, but when they do, the Billionaire Boys Club needs to take advantage.  If Cole wants to go to NYY (his childhood favorite team), you know they will be very active in their pursuit.  He grew up in LAA’s backyard, and they need pitching badly, so they will be in pursuit.  I also believe that San Diego will go hard after him.  They need that signature pitcher before MacKenzie Gore makes it to the Show, and they have shown that they are not afraid to spend.  Houston has said that they may not be able to re-sign him, but there is going to be more than a couple of high roller teams that will be players for Cole.  The problem will be that Cole is a Scott Boras client and he will probably not sign early.  It is entirely possible that some team will wait too long on Cole and lose out on others.  Make Cole an offer he cannot refuse, but the Dodgers should not be outbid.  With Cole and Buehler at the top of the rotation, that will be better than any top duo including Scherzer and Strasburg.

2. Even with the 26 player roster, the max roster will be 28 in September. This will make it even more important for teams to have versatile players that can play multiple positions. That could increase the value of Kike’ Hernandez or CT3. With Matt Beaty showing that he is definitely a ML player, Kike’ or CT3 can become available. Do the Dodgers need both? Probably not, and that would free up at least $5MM.

3. Ross Stripling is absolutely a trade candidate and for his sake, I hope he is moved. Just as was Alex Wood, Ross Stripling is a favorite of mine. Wood did not make sense to hold on to, and neither does Ross. They both need to go to a team where they have a chance to be successful starting pitchers. Ross is projected to earn $2.3MM in arbitration. What level of player/prospect would be returned for Ross?

4. It is not arguable that both 2019 FA did not earn their salaries. Both Kelly and Pollock should be considered trade candidates, but how much trade value will they bring in return. I am not as high on AJ as 59Arrow is, but I am not as down on him as many others are. He is injury prone, but he is more than capable of going off and being that RH bat the team needs. While I am ambivalent about AJ, I am not on Joe Kelly. The Dodgers should do whatever they can to move Kelly. I do not blame him for the Game 5 loss. He should never have been out there for the 2nd inning. That is all on Doc. Kelly pitched in multiple innings 8 times in 2019; 4 in his worst month, April. He pitched two games of 1.1 and 1.2 IP in August, but because of some alleged physical ailment in September, he only pitched .2 innings after 9/18 before the NLDS. He did his job in the 9th, and should not have come out for the 10th. I do not think Kelly will ever be accepted by Dodger fans. He was a -0.6 WAR pitcher in 2019, but I think he can be a 1.0 WAR pitcher, thus earning his salary. LAD may have to include cash considerations, but maybe he can be moved to a team with less pressure than LAD or BOS. Ken Giles is projected to make $8.4MM. Maybe two years of Joe Kelly and a lottery ticket or two for Ken Giles. But Toronto will probably hold on to Giles and try to move him at the deadline where they will probably get more without Kelly’s contract. But my optimistic brain thinks that Kelly will be good in Toronto and become a valuable trade chit at the deadline as well. Give him a chance to close in Toronto and see what he can do. Ken Giles scares me, but so does Joe Kelly. Turn the page.

5. I think everyone knows I like Austin Barnes, but again, I do not think he will be accepted by Dodger fans.  He has three years of team control and is a good defensive catcher with elite framing skills.  He may not bring back Jeter Downs or Jo Jo Gray, but maybe a couple at the next tier or a good MiLB reliever.  I would consider moving him, but that would require another backup catcher. Russell Martin is an obvious choice, but I would like to see the Dodgers look at Stephen Vogt.  The downside for Vogt is that he is yet another LHH.  That does not concern me as much for a backup catcher, as there will be plenty of opportunities for Vogt to relieve Smith against tough RHP.  Martin knows the Dodgers pitchers, and Keibert Ruiz needs another year at AAA before he should be considered.  I like a veteran backup catcher, and Martin and Vogt fill that role.

6. While this trade talk of Belli and Seager is crazy talk (IMO), it is obvious that neither can be counted on to be the Reggie Jackson for the Dodgers in the post season. Who can be? Some are talking about Nicholas Castellanos, but he has three playoff games in his career, and they were not pretty. Maybe he is the missing piece, but maybe he is a RH version of Belli. I think it is a good chance that JDM opts out of his contract, and I would prefer him to Castellanos. I recognize that Castellanos is 4.5 years younger than JDM, but I want a player that has performed in the playoffs rather than a younger player who has not. Castellanos is not a difference maker for the Dodgers to make the playoffs, but is he a difference maker in the playoffs? JDM is a more likely choice (IMO).

7. If the Dodgers choose to sign Castellanos, JDM, or any other RHH OF, Pollock will obviously need to be moved. I do not believe that his salary is out of line, but the return may not be as much as they want. Regardless, the Dodgers may need to make that change and look for the difference maker FOR THE PLAYOFFS. Getting to the playoffs does not seem to be much of a concern, but once they are there, HOPING that they will perform does not seem to work out well for LAD. The Billionaire Boys Club needs to step out of their comfort zone and show the fans that they want to win and not just clip coupons.

8. The Dodger management has already said that they are still hoping for change by bringing back Doc Roberts. Managers make mistakes. They all do. But it sure seems that Doc makes much more than his share and shows no signs of changing his approach. I can only think of one decision that he has made in the playoffs the last 4 years that has not been a mistake, and that is starting Walker Buehler in Game 1 in the 2019 NLDS and having him available to start Game 5. Every other move turned out to be a big mistake over his 4 years in the post season. Management does not seem to want to force change, but instead wants to prove Einstein wrong by continually doing the same thing and hoping for a different outcome.

9. The Cubs are a prime opportunity for the Dodgers to talk with. Both Kris Bryant or Javy Baez seem to be available for the right price.  Some want Rendon, but I think it is more likely than not that he returns to Washington. And while there is room to sign TWO significant elite FA and still stay under $220MM, I see no sign that says they would consider it.  If Rendon is not available, Kris Bryant would look nice in a Dodger uni.  Remember, Bryant can play LF, RF, and 1B besides 3B.  He does not have to solely play 3B in 2020. After 2020, 3B would be his as JT will probably be more of a Chase Utley for LAD than a regular 3B.  Before Castellanos or JDM, I would like to see the Dodgers make a concerted effort for Bryant.  The Cubs need to make a change as well.

10. I do not know if it is the Billionaire Boys Club that is tying AF’s hands, but if it is, I would look for AF to leave. If AF does stay, then he needs to change his approach. Get away from being safe and being satisfied with winning the Division. Go bold and bring in the players that can win a championship. If it costs $230MM so be it. If the Dodgers put an elite team on the field for 2020, how great would it look if they had multiple All-Stars for their ASG at Dodger Stadium. They need to put on a show with their Dodger stars.

It is clear to every Dodger fan that status quo is not the answer. Shake things up. Change the dynamics. If it costs, so be it. The Dodgers have the money, the Dodgers have the farm system. They cannot hold on to all of the prospects. Trading some does not have to cripple the future of the team. In fact, most believe that it will not. At some point they have to be bold and go for it. IF NOT 2020, WHEN?