What Happened to Gavin Stone?
A year ago, on his way to becoming the Dodgers Minor League Pitcher of the Year, Gavin Stone went from Great Lakes – A Ball, to Tulsa – AA Ball, to OKC – AAA Ball.. all in one season and put up a 1.48 ERA and a 1.10 WHIP. He struck out 168 batters in 121 innings. He was on his…
A year ago, on his way to becoming the Dodgers Minor League Pitcher of the Year, Gavin Stone went from Great Lakes – A Ball, to Tulsa – AA Ball, to OKC – AAA Ball.. all in one season and put up a 1.48 ERA and a 1.10 WHIP. He struck out 168 batters in 121 innings. He was on his way to the Show… or so it seemed.
Meanwhile, Bobby Miller started 2022 in AA – Tulsa and then moved to AAA – OKC, where he put up a combined 4.25 ERA and a 1.20 WHIP. Bobby missed about six weeks of the 2023 season with “shoulder soreness,” and when he came back, in four games he put up a 5.65 ERA and 1.19 WHIP. Next, he was called up to LA, where he is 3-0 with a 0.78 ERA and a 0.83 WHIP. Miller became just the third pitcher in MLB history to go at least five innings and allow no more than one run in each of his first four career starts.
Who knew? Who predicted this? Well, there are a lot of factors involved here, and hopefully, some of you can learn something about prospects. Gavin Stone was a bright shiny object, and we all (myself included) fell in love with him. He was ready, and Bobby Miller was a year or two away, as he had stuff to work on. Well, he has a lot to work on. Gavin Stone gave up 3 HR last year in 121 IP. It should not go unnoticed that he currently has given up 7 HR in 44 IP, and his ERA sits at 5.08 while his WHIP is 1.51.
WHAT HAPPENED?
Miller is headed toward being one of the best pitching callups in MLB history, while Stone is sinking like a… anchor! Some of you are going to hate me for this, but the analysis is much the same (the truth hurts): Remember when James Outman came up in 2022 and set the team on fire and then in Spring Training, he continued to blister the ball? He made the team and was unconscious for about a month. I had picked Miguel Vargas over Outman as Rookie of the Year, and some fans (most who have since gone away) mocked my “stupidity.” “How could you value Vargas over Outman?” Some even suggested that Vargas was not ready and should go back to AAA.
Now, James Outman may ultimately be a very good player, but MLB found his kryptonite – the high fastball and certain pitch sequences. I root for him and hope he can become the CF’er the Dodger need, but Shiny Objects May be Further Away Than They Appear. Gavin Stone was a shiny object and I forgot one basic tenet of pitching in MLB: You really need four pitches! Gavin Stone has two: A fastball and a changeup! Well, he has a slider and a curve, but they are not of MLB quality. Just like what happened last year to Ryan Pepiot, when trying to learn other pitches, he lost command of his changeup. If Gavin has a suspect curve and slider and then loses touch on his changeup, anyone can hit his fastball.
Many scouts have speculated that Stone’s slight frame may not be conducive to starting, and that could be true, but only having control of one pitch will kill you every time. The solution is to go to the bullpen. His 96 MPH fastball would tick up a couple of MPH in the pen, and all he needs is fastball and changeup (and great control helps, too) to be successful in the bullpen. The Dodgers need to do that ASAP… but they won’t. Starters get the big bucks. It’s that simple. When you do what you have always done, you get what you have always got, and that is insane! That’s my two cents.
Many oldtimers lament the fact that pitchers don’t pitch deep into games like they used to. There are reasons for that. Pitching has risen to such an “art form” that many pitchers throw balls are supersonic speeds with astounding spin rates and movement..’ all the while contorting their arms in such an “unnatural fashion” that they are simply waiting for their next Tommy John Surgery, be it their 1st, 2nd, 3rd and maybe 4th or 5th soon.
Shelf lives of pitchers expire earlier than ever because of all the strain and stress they put on their arms. Of course, Sandy Koufax could probably pitch in any era, but without a 15-inch mound, with a much smaller strike zone, and with numerous pitchers throwing 100 MPH+, it is impossible (I was going to say unlikely, but it is impossible) that he would be as dominant. A scout once told me that Claude Osteen would not have made the modern-day Dodgers. That was his opinion, but I have considered it. Pitching is tough… as is hitting. It’s tougher now than it has ever been.
That said, Bobby Miller proves that progress is not linear and that talent trumps everything when the effort is there!
Pet Peeves
I hate it when fans say things like, “Andre Jackson is nothing more than a trade chip.” “Peralta just needs to go away.” and other quotes that value a player as trash. The only thing many fans are good at are:
(1) Jumping to stupid conclusions; and
(2) Having no clue what is really happening in the game inside the game.
Most fans have never run anything (except their mouths), and some may have VD (Verbal Diarrhea) of the mouth. Diarrhea is usually caused by just being a dumbass or, sometimes, contaminated information. Less frequently, it can be a sign of another disorder, such as Optic Rectumitis or irritable brain syndrome. Symptoms include frequent, loose, watery posts and negative posts. Some cases clear up on their own, but some infections may need several doses of dumbass vaccine. Severe cases can cause enough dehydration to require an enema so that the fan can be buried in a shoebox. More on this later!
The bullpen has been a problem, and Karen (I mean Caleb) Ferguson is the Poster Child for the underperforming bullpen and has coughed up two Walk Off wins this week. Caleb is a greatly talented player, but he is soft. There was a dispute a couple of years ago between him and the front office about whether he was healthy. The front office was erring on the side of making sure he was healthy, but Caleb seems to overvalue his value. I would send him back to OKC to work on his attitude as much as his game. It will make him or break him. I can’t say any more about it.
Other News
- My new Favorite Prospect: Dodgers’ Alex Freeland was born with a clubfoot. Now he’s a shortstop prospect. Great Article in The Athletic: https://theathletic.com/4595175/2023/06/09/dodgers-alex-freeland-shortstop-prospect/ I am all in!
- David Peralta!
- Andre Jackson.]
- It was good to see James Outman have some success yesterday
- I was pretty certain that due to the severe bruising on Julio Urias’s Hamstring Area that he was probably going to be back in July… and I said so. I might have been right! #Igetluckyalot
- I will be in Florida a few days, so I may be off the grid!
More from Dodger Talk
Dodgers Food Trailer
I did this interview a couple of weeks ago with Chef Mike, who runs the Dodgers Food Trailer for the Great Lakes Loons. They are there for every home and road regular season and playoff game. They prepare three meals a day for approximately 50 people (players and coaches). Since games end late most evenings, they do not prepare breakfast. Many of their hotels have a complimentary breakfast anyway. However,…
Meet LAD 2026 Draft Picks 1-12
3 picks were High School players (2 SS and 1 OF). There was a college OF, college catcher, college SS, and 10 college pitchers. Of all the talk for a need for a catcher, the only catcher the Dodgers selected was Luke Bard, son of LAD bullpen coach Josh Bard. Bard was a 4th year senior from Houston Christian University. He is not a prospect, so the Dodgers are still…
Interview with Paul Beachy – Team Bus Driver For The Great Lakes Loons (LA Dodgers Minor League Team)
It’s been a few days since I did this interview. We have evidently been working my son-in-law (the video guy) like a rented mule at US Water Systems. However, I am taking him to London with me in a few days, so maybe Watford will buy him a pint as a tip, but he’s a dang Red Sox fan, so there is that! I thought that it would be interesting…
Thanks for Your Service: Chris Taylor
I was going to do this post when Chris announced he was retiring, then he changed his mind, but since the chances of him ever playing for the Dodgers again are slim and non-existent, I will go ahead with this post. He unretired, went on the IL, then decided to call it quits on May 24th. Taylor was born in Virginia Beach VA on August 29th, 1990. He attended Great…
Discussion (100)
Disagree, not disagreeable
Alex Reyes won’t be pitching for the Dodgers this year has he underwent shoulder surgery this week. Another signing that the “bean counters” will have ownership wondering if the continued FA acquisitions of injured pitchers by AF is a wise move.
Without any research I can think of Danny Duffy, Jimmy Nelson, Tommy Kahnle, and Alex Reyes that have cost the Dodgers millions with little to no return on investment. Lets hope the likes of Giles, Feyereisen , Mike Montgomery, Ryan Brasier break that mold. They didn’t cost the Dodgers millions but the millions spent on old and broken down vets is perplexing.
Hoping Treinen can come back late this year, but more likely next year, but paying him $8 million to not pitch after having shoulder surgery instead of allowing the team opt out at $ 1.5 million last year is odd salary management.
Je, CFerguson got the Lost.
In another note, Orel today was commenting that the pitch clock may be responsible of the lost mojo of AVesia.
What’s wrong with refering to a pitcher who has shuttled between the farm and LA as a “trade chip”? How is this different from describing somebody as a “4A” player or projecting a certain rookie as s “a 5th outfielder”?
He who lives in glass houses…
A trade chip has value. If AF is in talks for Shane Beiber, and Cleveland says, “If you replace Nastrini with Jackson, we’ve got a deal,” do you refuse?
Andre Jackson has been up and down between LA and the farm for a few years. Perhaps he deserves more of an opportunity, but the brass apparently doesn’t think so. Perhaps he’s a victim of the Dodgers RP supershuttle policy. Perhaps on another team, he’d get more of an opportunity and blossom into a star.
This post primarily concerns the struggles of Gavin Stone. He is not someone I’d describe as a trade chip, but a work in progress. But if Cleveland demands Stone for Beiber, don’t you have that conversation?
The Dodgers, thank goodness, are always buyers. They are always in contention and have plenty of talent. Keibert and Gray had no role in LA and could be flipped for major stars. Zach McKinstry was flipped for Chris Martin–and now McKinstry, after another trade, is starter for the Tigers. Luke Raley was traded for pitching prospect who may or may not work out. Raley is now crushing for the mighty Rays.
My guess is that the Dodgers system is loaded with prospects, or “4A” veterans, who would welcome the chance to to be a crucial part of another team, rather than a bit player with the Dodgers.
Speaking of stupidity, why should anyone think Gavin Stone’s “sleight frame” is not conducive to starting?
He’s bigger than Marcus Stroman, who at 5-7, 180 pounds has been leading the majors in quality starts. Right now Stroman is 7-4 with a 3.3 WAR.
Stone is also similar in size, or bigger, than Tim Lincecum, Greg Maddux and Pedro Martinez.
Maddux won 4 Cy Youngs, Pedro 3 and Lincecum 2.
Of course, it was this sort of stupid baseball stereotyping that led the Dodgers to foolishly trade Pedro. The brass obviously valued his older, taller brother Ramon much more. Lasorda was among Pedro’s doubters.
D’oh!
I will reiterate. I despise bullpen games. I did not watch todays game because I had some old friends visiting from Indiana. They were members of a band I used to sit in with all the time.
Couple of things:
1. Over the weekend, Max Muncy hit 6 balls over 95 MPH (4 over 100) and had six walks as well as at least 3 or 4 balls called strikes. He is having bad luck right now, but he will be fine. Since his errors in Cincy, he has been pretty solid at 3B. If you think he’s declining, you are seeing something I’m not seeing.
2. Blake Treinen has an “Unknown Option” by the Dodgers in 2024. What we know about it is that it is unknown.
3. Bullpen games are not going to be a regular thing for the Dodgers, but you are right to worry about the Catman!
Is Treinen a known unknown or an unknown unknown?
I agree that Max should be OK. A slump compounded by a bit of bad luck. This has happened before.
Just for fun, I did the math: We’re slightly more than 40% into the Dodgers season.
So a player with 20 HRs now would be on pace to hit (almost) 60 HRs.
So Max is on a 44-45 HR pace… .with an average below the Mendoza Line.
And Mookie is on pace for 42, with JDM and Freddie right behind….
Elly “ I am the fastest man in the world” de la Cruz busted out a 31.2 to first. Usain Bolt territory.
Can’t remember last time I had Reds at top of must-see replays. Kid is wild talent.
Very impressive. Last season Rod Carew has called Arraez his favorite hitter because he had to remind Carew of Carew. His OBP is above .400.
On another matter, a Dodgers commentator made what I thought was an interesting point–that perhaps the bullpen’s struggles this season are related to the anti-shift rules, which penalize the practice of pitching-to-contact.
The solution, he suggested, was more gas to get Ks.
So perhaps the Dodgers could give Tulsa’s Kyle Hurt a chance in the pen. The latest report:
“Kyle Hurt struck out eight in his four innings, allowing only a solo home run. He has a 3.47 ERA with 63 strikeouts in 36⅓ innings this season, and Hurt’s 40.6-percent strikeout rate is second among Dodgers minor league pitchers with at least 20 innings, trailing only Emmet Sheehan (41.7 percent).”
* Not a fan of Ferguson’s body language during the 1st inning. To his credit, he settled down to keep the damage to 1. That’s what he needs to do to shake the “soft” label. And stop slumping those shoulders and acting like somebody stole your crayons after some bad luck.
* I have never been a fan of Taijuan Walker and I don’t like it when he beats us. Walker would be wise to take his temper tantrums, after getting pulled, to the clubhouse and not visible in the dugout. He’s always been 12. He finally wore out his welcome in Seattle age 24 as they waited for him to mature. He was 1st rounder to Seattle in 2010. They had big hopes for him and it never happened. They finally traded him after, having seen enough.
I hate making him look like Cy Young.
* Offensively, our hitter need to improve their aim. It was one of those days you need to remind yourself that they all even out. It may not be true but you need to believe it to keep sane.
It’s like missing your 10th straight good putt that burns the edge and you look to the heavens and say “why can’t you
come down here and fight like a man”. All the white your opponent is chipping in and making 30 footers.
* Joe said that CT 3 is playing at an All-Star level against LHP. He’s hitting .241 vs LHP. I guess the All-Star standards have hit rock botton.
*I love a well executed safety squeeze
* The White Sox are 29-38 and underperforming. Some have expressed interest in some of their players and the next few series are critical to see if the are buyers or sellers. The have us, Seattle Texas, and Boston coming up. I would only be vaguely interested in Giolito, but especially interested in Luis Robert Jr. They may not want to part with him but it’s worth a look. He’s signed through 2025 with a 2 yr option, at $8.3 million per and worth every penny. He’s hitting .390 vs LHP.
Again, I’m not breaking the bank at the deadline.
* On the bright side, we have so many more arms especially in AA.
The Athletic continues to bleed money.
“ Last year, it lost $6.8 million in February and March and another $12.6 million in the second quarter, according to the Times public filings. It lost $7.8 million in the most recent quarter.”
– NY Times
Open on apple.newshttps://apple.news/AOYjm3lx5RpKNNeplKQw1qQWhat Mark said above, Luis Arraez has one HR and a batting average of 397 power not needed at ever position.
Friedman and Gomes with some nice quotes in this OCRegister/Plunkett piece:
Open on www.ocregister.comhttps://www.ocregister.com/2023/06/12/dodgers-digging-into-a-bullpen-that-is-among-mlbs-worst-most-perplexing/Luke Voit to the Mets on a minor league deal. Angels sign 38 year old Daniel Murphy to a minors deal. Old friend, Matt Beaty to KC on the same kind of deal.