WHAM! BANG! BLOCKBUSTER!
There is a lot to unpackaged on the trade of Adrian Gonzalez, Scott Kazmir, Brandon McCarthy and Charlie Culberson for former Dodger darling, Matt Kemp. Whether Matt Kemp ever plays for the Dodgers again is in question. He could be flipped to an AL team in need of a DH. I think he has some value and I cannot just see him being released unless his clubhouse demeanor is worse
There is a lot to unpackaged on the trade of Adrian Gonzalez, Scott Kazmir, Brandon McCarthy and Charlie Culberson for former Dodger darling, Matt Kemp. Whether Matt Kemp ever plays for the Dodgers again is in question. He could be flipped to an AL team in need of a DH. I think he has some value and I cannot just see him being released… unless his clubhouse demeanor is worse than I think… and I think it was pretty bad, but I also think like Andre Ethier, he may have grown up to some degree.
TAKE 1: FAZ Dumped over $30 million in salary for 2018 which gets them under the luxury tax threshold and means they could sign a big free agent next year (like Harper) if they want. Harry Houdini never got out of anything like this! This is one for the books. I am somewhat at a loss for words.
TAKE 2: I could see Kemp being flipped to a team who needs a DH, thus saving up to another $21 million and allowing a Yu Darvish to be acquired. Kemp could be flipped but I cannot see FAZ taking on a 5 to 6 year contract for Darvish.
TAKE 3: I could see Kemp staying and platooning in LF with Andrew Toles or Joc Pederson, who would also be his late-inning caddy. He could be rejuvenated back in LA and be a model citizen in the clubhouse and a platoon with Kemp and Toles or Joc could be very potent. Kike stays as the super-sub.
TAKE 4: FAZ could then trade Verdugo and Alvarez for Gerrit Cole who is controllable through 2020 and cheaper than Darvish. Darvish doesn’t cost prospects but will demand a big long-term deal. I see Cole being a better option. They still may have to move Grandal to keep under the $197 MILLION Luxury Tax Threshold.
TAKE 5: LA will be under the $197 threshold this year – that is a given NOW!
TAKE 6: Trayce Thompson was saved.
TAKE 7: No mater whether Kemp stays or goes, this is an incredible deal! Gonzo could end his career in SD or maybe come back to LA. The later would seem unlikely, but it is possible. Never underestimate THE FAZ!
This is epic! I can’t wait to see what happens next!
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Discussion (68)
Disagree, not disagreeable
Buster Olney breaks down the deal:
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Open on www.espn.comhttp://www.espn.com/blog/buster-olney/insider/post/_/id/17788/olney-dodgers-braves-both-profit-from-inspired-debt-defying-deal–
Plaschke also weighs in:
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Open on www.latimes.comhttp://www.latimes.com/sports/dodgers/la-sp-dogers-trade-plaschke-20171216-story.htmlWhat Charlie Culberson said:
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The TRADE would be even more complete if the Dodgers traded Kemp to Boston.
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Kemp’s defensive metrics were made worse by the huge area a left fielder has to cover in Atlanta. The opposite would be the case in Boston plus Kemp could DH in Boston.
Ok first off I am happy with the trade. Getting below the luxury tax is huge. I’m not sure I totally understand would somebody enlighten me. We get under the luxury tax but Atlanta doesn’t take on any contracts. People are saying that they don’t understand why Atlanta would do this. I think they made a great deal. They don’t take on salary they are now able to play their prospect Acuna and have a possible starter or 2 and they will be through with the contracts this year if I understand it. They also could possibly flip Mccarthy or Kazmir at the deadline while having a quality backup in Culberson. The Braves did well. The dodgers get under the salary cap which I will assume they stay under intentionally to save them approximately 35-40 million in 2018. I’m a little shaky on 2019 with people saying they have the cash to go for free agents. You still have kemp, plus Kershaw increase maybe, yo would then go right back over the luxury tax probably at a rate of 20%. I guess the savings is what it would have been which I can’t do the math and what it will actually be. Of course whatever moves in between will factor. Maybe a trade of kemp will help, I believe he has power and with the right conditioning and attitude he could help. But, what effect will he have in the clubhouse with a guy like Puig etc. for now, I think it was a big win win for both teams while moves going forward could make it even better.
As of right now, the Dodgers have a luxury tax payroll of about $180M or $17M below the threshold. This includes Matt Kemp at his full $20M AAV. The Dodgers look to save $22.7M next year with losing Forsythe ($9M), Grandal ($7.7M), and Ryu ($6M). Seager goes into arbitration year #1, and Puig is eligible for arbitration. While Puig has a current luxury tax hit of $6M, his salary is about $9M, so arbitration will be north of $11M. So let’s say that Seager and Puig will eat up Grandal’s arbitration plus plus, and the true savings will be around $12M. In addition, the luxury tax threshold increases by $9M in 2019.
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Therefore, the Dodgers could be south of the luxury tax threshold for 2019 by nearly $38M – $40M. What would it take to extend Kershaw? 4 more years at $35M per which would take him through his age 36? With his current balance at $66 for 2 years, that is $206M for 6 years. CK would still be under the old contract and his $30M AAV for two years, and would increase to $35M starting with 2020. So no luxury tax impact until 2020 when the Kemp contract is up.
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While I like Harper, I see no reason for a $40M hit for 10 years, or another $30M hit for 10 years with Machado. If the Dodgers are convinced Puig is legit, then look to extend him next year. Then look to sign Seager and Bellinger to take them out of a couple years of free agency. Otherwise just let them go through arbitration and deal with Boras when they become free agents.
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With all of Buehler, White, Urias, Alvarez, Santana, Ferguson, and May all due up between 2018 and 2020, the starting rotation should be solid, with some of those going into the bullpen.
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Where I would think the Dodgers will look next year will be at 2B. I still think DJ Lemahieu would be a great Dodger addition at 2B. Daniel Descalso as a LH hitting utility inf would also be a good addition. FAZ will not spend on Miller/Kimbrel/Britton/Robertson, nor do I think they need to. If Kershaw has his heart on finishing his career in Dallas, I could see the Dodgers looking at Keuchel for their Ace, but I am holding out all hope that Kershaw will extend with the Dodgers.
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I would still like to see the Dodgers try to trade for Gerrit Cole, and look to extend him sometime during the year. Kershaw/Cole/Buehler/Urias/Wood/Oaks for 2019 and beyond? With Belly/Lemahieu/Seager/JT/Verdugo/CT3/Puig/Barnes. And they will be under the luxury tax and a boatload of ML ready players in the system. The future looks bright indeed for the Dodgers, beginning in 2018.
You can bet FAZ is working the phones and will be to see what they can get for Kemp. There is no rush, but if any team needs a DH, the sooner the better.
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FAZ got rid of him once and his attitude was 50% of it. The contract was the other 50%. Friedman says he has talked to Matt. Has he asked him if he can come back and Show up, Step Up and Shut Up?
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Over the last couple of days, I have watched some video on Buehler, White, May and Santana and I happen to believe than Santana could be a very good set-up man NOW!
Kershaw would be wise to not opt out if he misses 10+ starts due to back problems. Also, if he doesn’t excel in the playoffs, he might not get that many huge offers if he opts out.
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A 2010 rotation of Buehler, Urias, Alvarez, Wood, Stewart/Oaks that is backed up by White, Santana, Fergusen, and May would continue effort to keep the Dodgers young.
I would trade for one year of Machado. He wants to play short but he would have to wait a year. I would send the Orioles Forsyth, Pederson, Stripling, kemp, Baez, for Machado, Britton, and Trumbo. This would cost the Dodgers about 9 -10 mil and give them a reliever and a rental great second baseman, and the orioles would get salary relief, a quality 2nd baseman, a young starting pitcher, a replacement for Britton, and a left handed power bat, plus a dh. I would give them 5 million in 2019 to offset Kemp’s salary. This would cost the Dodgers 10 mil over 2 years roughly. Forsythe 9, Pederson 2, kemp 21.5, Stripling baez 2(estimate)= 34.5 mil and the orioles Machado 17 + Britton 11+ Trumbo 11= 39 mil then I would flip Trumbo to someone in the American League or whoever would take him. I would work hard to get Machado for one year even if he didn’t resign but if we had him we might have a better chance to resign him. I used numbers that I thought were correct but I am not sure,
I have to go and see the LAST JEDI on IMAX!
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Peace Out!
Clayton Kershaw is my favorite baseball player. That said, I’m not sure I extend him. The back will only get worse if he doesn’t fix it. Fix it and I’m not sure teams will make the investment? I hope he plays out his current deal and goes into the Hall of Fame as a Dodger. Opt out? I hope he honors his current contract. Only the health gods know what will happen!
All the MLB and ESPN muckymucks are saying FAZ is possibly targeting Lorenzo Cain as free agent, or McCutcheon in a trade. Hmmm, sounds interesting, but after the last couple of days, I bet even the “analysts” don’t have a clue to what FAZ has up their sleeves next. Great theater.. Gotta love it, I am so glad and flat out relieved these guys are in our front office. Would not want to have anyone else in this day and age. GO FAZ!!
Alot of whinning and complaining as been directed at this front office. But in my view FAZ is doing exactly what they have been hired to do, 1) care for the interest of the owners and 2) put a great team on the field for the pleasure and delight of Dodger Baseball fans. Seeing these guys work is almost as much fun as watching the Boys in Blue.
Dodger fans are pretty fortunate catch the show.
Gallardo on the Brewers.
Kemp on the Dodgers.
Pablo on the Giants.
Headley on the Padres.
Its 2013 all over again
Bum, I like it…
Bobo you nailed it, although it hurts a little…
It just seemed like a couple years ago Santana was in the Blue system trying to be a catcher as I recall!? Good golly he’s making some cheddar now… I’m happy for him…
That was good Bumsrap! You made me chuckle!