We The Fans

As baseball aficionados we all know who should play, who should play where, what the best batting lineup should be, how to “correct” batting stances, etc.  We are all more knowledgeable than the Presidents of Baseball Operations, or the managers, or the pitching coaches, or the hitting coaches.  We have all played the game, some at advanced levels. But to my knowledge, nobody on this site has ever climbed the organizational ladder and achieved success at the MLB level.  For some it is a simply a diversionary game, for some it is life and death.

Advice is free and we all have it.  Most of it not consistent within the LADT community, but all offered with the utmost respect (most of the time).  Some say the bullpen is just fine and point to their ERA.  While others say it isn’t as they rely on career OPS.  Neither viewpoint is wrong, it just differs from others.  For me, both are flawed (and that does not make me right, just different).  In my opinion, ERA for a reliever is the least accurate measurement, because one bad outing can destroy an ERA for a season. Or a reliever comes in with runners on 2^nd and 3^rd with 2 outs and gives up a single allowing both runners to score, and the runs are charged to the previous pitcher. 

With respect to career OPS for relievers, IMO that can only work for the elite of the elite.  I say that because relievers are not consistent throughout the years.  By looking at career OPS, the Dodgers would never have signed Joe Blanton or Brandon Morrow, and yet they were exceptional relievers for the one year they had with the Dodgers.  Roll with the relievers that are having a good year.  Take Daniel Hudson as an example.  After a couple of very ho-hum seasons with the DBacks and Pirates, LAD signed him to a 2018 MiLB contract and he made the roster.  It was another of his reasonably ineffective seasons before he was shut down with arm issues.  In 2019, after signing with and being released by LAA, Hudson signed with Toronto.  He pitched well enough that Washington made a mid-season trade to acquire him for the stretch run. He was exceptional for Washington and was probably the most effective reliever for Washington going into the playoffs.  He was outstanding in the playoffs with the exception of Game 6 in the WS.  This year?  He is back to what he was prior to 2019 Washington.

Relievers are too difficult to gauge from year to year with the exception of the Josh Hader’s.  Many on this site did not want Adam Kolarek on the ML roster.  Yet, nobody is complaining now.    Well if they are, they are wrong.  If AF looked at career OPS for relievers, Victor Gonzalez would still be at USC.  Where would the Dodgers be without Kolarek, Gonzalez, and McGee this year. 

Some of us believe that pitchers prefer certain catchers, while others do not think that it matters.  To be honest, it really does not matter what any of us thinks.  Clayton Kershaw preferred to throw to AJ Ellis and Ellis became CK’s personal catcher.  Everyone knew it, and it was accepted.  That role now appears to be filled by Austin Barnes.  Psychological?  Maybe.  But whatever the reason, if Kershaw wants Barnes to be his catcher, then he should be.  Eddie Perez made a career by being Greg Maddux’s batterymate.  Was it psychological that Maddux told Bobby Cox, anybody but Javy Lopez?  Lopez was a 3 time AS, but Maddux did not like him behind the plate with him pitching.  Glavine and Smoltz were more than fine with Lopez.  Most on this site want Will Smith behind the plate most of the time.  Okay, but if Smith catches 4 out of 5 games, then the one game Barnes catches should be Kershaw.  Why should there be any discussion?  Kershaw has earned the right to name his catcher.

Some here are adamant about the importance of defense, while others do not see much value. The only attribute that matters to those is offense. I think that we can observe after the last several games that defense is critical. But for those that do not value defense as much, I would think their position would be that a good offense will score enough runs to offset a porous defense. That has worked at times lately, but that was against a weak hitting AZ team. Bad defense is not going to win many games against SD. I tend to value defense more than most, but not to the extreme. Otherwise, Jeren Kendall would be playing CF on the ML team.

Some here want Corey Seager to move to 3^rd so the Dodgers can make a play for Francisco Lindor next winter.  The future LAD SS will not be Gavin Lux.  If Lux has a career with the Dodgers, it will be at 2B.  For those that want Seager to move to 3B, what they are saying is that they do not want Corey Seager as a long term Dodger.  If Seager is moved, he will not re-sign with LAD.  For some, that is okay.  For me and others it is not.  He believes he is a SS and he is going to sign with a team in FA who will keep him at SS.  At least for the time being.  Just like Cal Ripken Jr., and ARod, he will probably have to move later in his career. 

We will never know who is right, because baseball is a team game.  Who says Lindor is a better fit for LAD at SS than is Seager?  Lindor is a better defensive SS.  Nobody is going to dispute that.  But is he a better choice for the LAD SS? I guess it depends on what everyone values.  One metric I have always valued is RISP and especially RISP w/2 out. 

• Lindor Career RISP – .256/.333/.408/.742
• Lindor Career RISP w/2 outs – .212/.305/.293/.599
• Seager Career RISP – .316/.393/.550/.943
• Seager Career RISP w/2 out – .339/.410/.587/.997

Lindor is a better defensive SS, while Seager is a better clutch hitter.  Seager has traditionally hit well with RISP, but he kicks it up a notch when there are 2 out.

Is it Cody Bellinger’s stance that has made him one of the least productive Dodgers this year offensively?  Or is 2018 and the playoff version of Belli the real Cody Bellinger?  Of course we all know how to fix him.  I agree with most that Belli is too close to the plate.  It worked for Barry Bonds, but Bonds had the fastest hands in the game.  And Bonds was not as close to the plate as Belli currently is.  Belli has a long swing and appears to be incapable of catching up to a fastball up and in, while Bonds crushed them.  JT also has his back foot on the chalk line, but he opens up to the pitcher before he starts his load.  Every batter is different.

Check out a couple of rather unique batting stances.  One was a 10 year player and 3 time AS and one was a HOF.

Perhaps the craziest of them all is

What Belli is doing now is not working.  Every once in a while, he can catch up to a pitch, but for a reigning MVP, he is not helping the Dodgers much in 2020.  He should not change his swing during the season, but he can back off the plate to recognize that he needs more time to get through the inside pitches.  He does not have to change his approach. 

My son turned me on to the attached youtube on a breakdown of Barry Bonds swing.  It is a 15 minute video, but it does have a lot of good information on Barry Bonds’ approach and swing.

We are all opinionated and well meaning.  We have different viewpoints.  We value aspects of the game differently.  That is true at the MLB level.  Different teams look at the game differently in how they believe the best way to win is.  Under the AF era, there is no question (in my mind) that he is the best at building a team for a 162 game season.  But he has not yet proven that he can build a WS champion.  With the addition of Mookie Betts, will 2020 be the year? 

We all have different favorite players.  Many of us get emotionally engaged with some of the players.  Nothing compares to watching your son play at the highest level, or MiLB, or college, or even high school.  But I still get angst when certain players come to bat or take the mound, or make a great defensive play, or make an error, or strikeout the side, or give up the game winning HR.  Some fans do not take the game as serious, while others live and die with the results.  And for me, Mookie does not have to prove a thing.  I will take him just the way he is.  And Seager, and Belli, and JT, and Ferguson…

But with all of the differences, we all still come together as Dodger fans.  There are so many opinions, because everyone who comes to LADT is an unquestioned loyal fan of Dodger Blue with an idea as to how to make a great team even better. It just is not a consensus of opinions.

And A Couple of Rants:

1. That was as poorly played series that I have seen from the Dodgers since that 2017 swoon in August/September.  Poor defense, poor situational hitting, poor base running, and poor starting pitching. 
2. When was the last time we saw a Dodger hitter beat the shift?
3. The Mookie to 2^nd and Kike’ to RF did not play out.  I am not sure why they decided to make that defensive allotment. This season is not over.  Only 3.5 games ahead of a vastly improved and very dangerous SD Padres team.
4. The offensive problems remain very little run production from the two big power hitters; Belli and Muncy. Those two need to produce if the Dodgers expect to win a championship. They miss JT in the middle of that order. They have to find a way of manufacturing runs. Runners on 3rd with less than 2 outs and they cannot get the runner in? This is becoming a significant problem. Before Thursday night’s game:
5. Bellinger RISP – 189/.333/.324/.658 RISP w/2 outs – .188/.350/.375/.725
6. Muncy RISP – .152/.388/.424/.812 RISP w/2 outs – .133/.409/.333/.742
7. Mookie RISP – .455/.486/.848/1.335 RISP w/2 outs – .556/.579/1.111/1.690. Clearly Mookie is not the problem with runners in scoring position, regardless as to what happened on Thursday. Neither is Seager.
8. After 45 games, not one Dodgers pitcher qualifies for any end of season awards.  The closest is Clayton Kershaw, and he needs to average 6.1 IP over his last three starts to reach 60 IP, the minimum required to qualify.  The starters are going to need to start going deeper.  They just cannot turn it on when they get to the playoffs.
9. To play off Badger’s Fangraphs numbers a little more, the Dodgers have two players in the top 100 in WAR: Betts #5 and Seager #41.  The Padres have six: Fernando Tatis, Jr (#1), Wil Myers (#20), Manny Machado (#22), Dinelson Lamet (#29), Jake Cronenworth (#53), and Zach Davies (#64).
10. With the exception of Defensive Runs Saved, the Dodgers are one of the bottom defensive teams in several other defensive metrics.

• UZR #22 – Measures fielding runs above average.
• DEF #26 – Measures fielding runs above average +positional adjustment
• ErrR #30 – Error runs above average
• DPR #29 – Double play runs above average

Rave

1. The Dodgers still have the best record in baseball, and they still have to be caught. They are capable of putting it into another level, but will they?