The Yordan Alvarez Effect Should Linger
On June 15, 2016, Yordan Alvarez signed with the Los Angeles Dodgers as a scrawny, wide-eyed International Free Agent out of Cuba. He received a $2 Million Dollar Signing Bonus back in the days when guys like Hector Olivera (who was an adept hitter… of women) got $62.5 Million…
On June 15, 2016, Yordan Alvarez signed with the Los Angeles Dodgers as a scrawny, wide-eyed International Free Agent out of Cuba. He received a $2 Million Dollar Signing Bonus back in the days when guys like Hector Olivera (who was an adept hitter… of women) got $62.5 Million Dollar Deals. In his initial scouting report, it described him as “an athletic contact hitter who has shown some power.” What an understatement! Yordan Alvarez is now one of the best players in baseball.
It just so happens that Andrew Friedman and the Dodger brass decided that they needed another bullpen piece so they coaxed the Astros into trading Josh Fields to them for one Jordan Alvarez, on August 15, 2016. Josh Fields came to the Dodgers and was a nice bullpen piece. In 2016, he had a 2.79 ERA, and followed that with a 2.84 ERA in 2017 and 2.20 in 2018… and then he was out of baseball! All told, he pitched 117.1 innings for the Dodgers and was 8-2 with a 2.61 ERA.
Andrew Friedman is an excellent talent evaluator and he surrounds himself with a cadre of people who have similar skills – both scouting, developing, and evaluating players… but he is not infallible. He is not perfect! He traded away a legitimate superstar for a solid middle-reliever! Rest assured, he is eager to do it all over again, if I listen to all the traded scenarios many of the fans throw out there. Rest assured, that is pure sarcasm! I am sure he is bothered by that. I would be. The thing is, evaluating a scrawny 19-year-old is not an exact science. One never knows what a player might become.
Look at it like this (these are made-up numbers, but I think they may be pretty accurate):
- The Dodgers have 40-60 prospects in their deep system who “have a shot” at making the show.
- Most will not be successful… probably less than 30% and some of them will just have a “cup of coffee.” So that means that 12-18 of those players will make it to MLB and for some, it will not be long.
- Of those 12-18 players, one or two may become legitimate stars (may!).
- Three or four may become journeyman players and see an occasional All-Star Game.
- Another three or four players may become role players (sort of like Josh Fields).
- Sometimes you get lucky with drafts (and luck does come into play) and you can have six to eight players from one draft make it to the Show, but that is rare.
There is no denying that the Dodgers are deep in prospects. They are ranked by many ranking services are the #1 Farm System in Baseball. They are unquestionably the deepest Farm System in baseball. However, which prospects will be great and which will be mediocre? Who will make it and who won’t? Who will be a star and who will be a dud? Evaluation of talent is not an exact science because (wait for it) progress is not linear. If it were, we could just “project” what a player might do and it would be done.
If you ask twenty seasoned baseball scouts to rate and rank thirty players, they will disagree more than they agree. Evaluation of talent is also based on the amount of time spent watching a player or studying film. Why did most scouts love Miguel Vargas? Because of his bat-to-ball skills. He is still struggling with MLB pitching but has quite a body of work to support that he might be a very good-to-great player in the making.
Why was James Outman not rated higher? Well, he had a “caveman swing” that needed “fixed” and very little history to back up any evaluation. It’s OK to root for James Outman (I do), but to rank him higher than a player like Vargas means you were thinking with your heart – you had no point of reference. That he has “crashed and burned” is not surprising to talent evaluators. But, baseball is a game of adjustments. I see evidence that J.O. can adjust, just like I still think Miguel Vargas will be a star.
Gavin Stone and Diego Cartaya were highly rated last year, but this year, they have “crashed and burned.” Diego is finally putting it back together in the last few games. I remain high on both players. Cartaya has prodigious power and at worse, Stone will be a bullpen arm, where he only needs a fastball and changeup. However, there are no guarantees.
Bobby Miller looks like a stud, but Frasso, Sheehan, Ryan, Nastrini, Bruns, Pepiot, Stone, and several others COULD be generational talent… or not. Cartaya, Rushing, Pages, Busch, De Paula, Fernandez, DeLuca, and some others are worthy prospects and maybe one will be a star… or not. How would the Dodgers look right about now with this lineup:
- Mookie Betts SS
- Freddie Freeman 1B
- Jordan Alvarez LF
- Max Muncy 3B
- Will Smith C
- JD Martinez DH
- James Outman CF
- Miguel Vargas 2B
- Jason Heyward and whoever RF
That is a 120 Win Team, but Andrew Friedman made a dope-fiend move in trading for Josh Fields. Remember that if you want a Top-of-the-rotation pitcher and/or a star hitter, you are going to have to part with some prospects. Which one could be Yordan Alvarez? I am not saying that you hoard all the prospects and never make a trade, but who really knows if 19-year-old O’Neil Cruz will be a star or not? At some point, you can sign a free agent or two and allow the farm to supply the players you need, but it has to start sometime… and now is as good as any. I would not trade one damn player!
The Dodgers are good enough to win it all. Yes, the D-Backs have surprised many fans. They won’t win the division, but they are having a hell of a run. The Dodgers have too much depth! It’s a new day – tonight it is Cole and Grove. Can Michael have his breakout game?
More from Dodger Talk
Dodgers Food Trailer
I did this interview a couple of weeks ago with Chef Mike, who runs the Dodgers Food Trailer for the Great Lakes Loons. They are there for every home and road regular season and playoff game. They prepare three meals a day for approximately 50 people (players and coaches). Since games end late most evenings, they do not prepare breakfast. Many of their hotels have a complimentary breakfast anyway. However,…
Meet LAD 2026 Draft Picks 1-12
3 picks were High School players (2 SS and 1 OF). There was a college OF, college catcher, college SS, and 10 college pitchers. Of all the talk for a need for a catcher, the only catcher the Dodgers selected was Luke Bard, son of LAD bullpen coach Josh Bard. Bard was a 4th year senior from Houston Christian University. He is not a prospect, so the Dodgers are still…
Interview with Paul Beachy – Team Bus Driver For The Great Lakes Loons (LA Dodgers Minor League Team)
It’s been a few days since I did this interview. We have evidently been working my son-in-law (the video guy) like a rented mule at US Water Systems. However, I am taking him to London with me in a few days, so maybe Watford will buy him a pint as a tip, but he’s a dang Red Sox fan, so there is that! I thought that it would be interesting…
Thanks for Your Service: Chris Taylor
I was going to do this post when Chris announced he was retiring, then he changed his mind, but since the chances of him ever playing for the Dodgers again are slim and non-existent, I will go ahead with this post. He unretired, went on the IL, then decided to call it quits on May 24th. Taylor was born in Virginia Beach VA on August 29th, 1990. He attended Great…
Discussion (58)
Disagree, not disagreeable
Dodgers are calling up Jonny DeLuca to take Trayce’s place on the roster.
Welcome to the bigs, Jonny!
Good article Mark!
Talent evaluation in baseball is a very difficult task. All GMs are going to make bad trades and bad draft picks.
The Alvarez for Fields trade was a terrible trade for the Dodgers. Fields was a decent middle reliever for 3 years for the Dodgers, but Mark omitted his most famous outing. In the 2017 WS against Houston, he gave up 2 HR and 3 hits while not getting an out in the 10th inning of game 2. His WS era is infinity.
And while some call the trade bad luck since Alvarez never played a game for the Dodgers, the team did pay Alvarez a $2 million bonus. This is a significant investment in a player and the Dodgers should have completed significant due diligence to payout that bonus. For comparison, the same month in 2016, the Dodgers drafted Will Smith and only paid him a bonus of $1.8 million as the 30th draft pick in the first round.
The Astros asked for Alvarez, but would have taken many other options for Josh Fields. The Dodgers need to own that mistake and not chalk it up to bad luck.
DeLuca time!
That’s a quick rise from Tulsa to OKC to LA–a faster rise than Outman’s. But it sounds good to me. If he hits lefties, He could stick around and bump Trayce or Peralta to another team. And the promised “youth movement” would be more real.
Except for those pitches to Bauer, Grove was impressive. It was nice to see Vargas come through with the triple. Dodgers had a great comeback opportunity only to have Mookie and Freddie line out, and Will get called out on strikes. (I didn’t see it, but my son insisted the pitch was low.)
Another highlight: JDM played a little leftfield! Will it happen again? Will he get a start so that Will can DH?
Up next is a big test for Bobby Miller. Young gun vs. Judge and the Yankees. Good time to be a Dodgers fan.
JDM played emergency Left Field, that’s it.q
19 year old C Thayron Liranzo hit his 14th dinger last night for RC . Another young promising C in the Dodgers pipeline.
And Josue De Paula also now playing at RC , he just had his 18th birthday couple days ago.
Go Dodgers!!!!!!!!!!!