The Manager and Trades

The Manager’s Role

Let me start this off by saying that anyone who doesn’t believe that “All of us are smarter than any one of us” probably is not a coach, manager, scout or part of the Dodger brain-trust! Some fans think that the Dodgers front office makes out the lineups and that Andrew Friedman is this “control freak.” Nothing could be further from the truth. Dave Roberts is the manager and it is his duty to make out the lineups… and he does just that. However, it is not without input in the form of “data” from the front office.

The role of the baseball manager has evolved into something different than it was 10 years ago… maybe even 5 years ago as analytics have taken the spotlight. The front office and the manager and coaches have regular meetings to help Doc make better decisions what lineups to use and where players can best succeed. These are “brainstorming sessions” that are backed with a plethora of data.

We often say something like this: “Why is Roberts having that LH batter hit against a RH pitcher when he has reverse splits?” That’s the data we have in our “pea brains” and on its face, it makes no sense. However, I guarantee that the data Doc has tells us where a pitcher is most likely to throw a certain pitch and the hitters’ ability to hit a certain pitch in a certain zone.

The hitting coaches and pitching coaches meet with the analytics people daily to formulate game plans, so that when Kike Hernandez comes in to pinch hit against a RHP, you can bet your sweet bippy that the data causes the coaches to believe that Kike can handle certain pitches in certain zones and that the pitcher is likely to deliver a pitch in that zone. In fact, they may go as far as to say “Until you get two strikes, only look for a pitch in Zone 2. Don’t swing at anything else.”

Gone are the days when a manager manages with his gut: “I just had a gut feeling he was going to get a hit,” although that can always come into play once in a while. Baseballs most successful managers in terms of winning percentage: Aaron Boone, Alex Cora, AJ Hinch, Joe Maddon, and Dave Roberts are all data managers. They have access to so much more data than we do and the front office and analytics staff help them decipher what it all means. However, when it comes right down to it, they all make out their own lineups, unless you are Mickey Callaway who works for that control freak Brodie Van Wagenen, who has been known to call the dugout and tell Callaway what to do. Geeeezzzz!

Dave Roberts is not perfect and fans like to blame the manager when things go wrong, but “it’s the players” when things go right. Dave Roberts does an excellent job of managing the clubhouse and many people believe that the tight-knit clubhouse is a collaboration of the front office and the manager and coaches. Moody, selfish players are persona non grata. Dave Roberts sets the tone for that as he is in the process of managing his third team in a row into the World Series. That would indeed be a feat that no other Dodger manager has accomplished. Of course, Andrew Friedman and Company have given him the horses to get there, haven’t they? It is a collaboration… just like the lineups are a collaboration.

A Seller’s Market

Baseball is evolving in many ways. One of those ways is how teams value older and younger players. The MLBPA is upset with the current state of free agency. They feel that players are not getting the big contracts that they deserve… and that is going to be a huge point of contention in the next Collective Bargaining Agreement. The simple fact of the matter is that most GM’s have finally figured out that huge deals to aging players seldom work out.

I believe that even the contracts to Manny Machado and Bryce Harper were “dope-fiend moves” that will haunt those teams for years. Conversely, the value of prospects, TOP PROSPECTS have soared. I was going to write about what is likely to happen, but Ken Gurnick of Dodgers.com beat me to the punch and said it better than I could:

With the best record in baseball at the break, the Dodgers are on a breakaway for their seventh consecutive National League West title and it’s hard to envision they need to make any changes to win it.

What happens once they reach the postseason, as they’ve shown the past six years, is an entirely different subject. The bullpen has been the most obvious vulnerability this year, but finding an impactful upgrade will be a real challenge because the supply/demand equation favors the sellers and the pool of players available is possibly smaller than ever.

And this year for the Dodgers in particular, the specter of the Yordan Alvarez trade for Josh Fields is the elephant in the ballpark. You never know when the teenager nobody’s ever heard of turns into the next David Ortiz … but you traded him for a reliever you released.

Current status: buyer
The Dodgers are buyers because they’re always buyers, but that doesn’t mean they’re spenders. They usually pass on the biggest names available when they are the most expensive names available, with Manny Machado last summer being the biggest exception. But the Dodgers lead the league in creativity, so you never really know what they’re up to.

What they are seeking
Sure, they’d like Will Smith-the-reliever, Brad Hand, etc. About 23 teams do. But this management team does not trade away its top prospects. If it did, Julio Urias, Corey Seager, Cody Bellinger, Walker Buehler or Will Smith-the-catcher would have been dealt for a quick fix during a previous Trade Deadline. They won’t knowingly overpay, and with so many teams in the Wild Card race and the jobs of general managers riding in the balance, somebody else will overpay. So the Dodgers are more likely to settle for a Tony Watson-type bullpen arm.

What they have to offer
This is another reason why the Dodgers are not likely to pull down a marquee name. Most of their prospects are on the young side and most teams willing to trade a marquee name want MLB-ready talent in return. Keibert Ruiz, Gavin Lux, Dustin May and Smith are the Dodgers’ top four prospects, the kind that can land a marquee name, the kind this management doesn’t trade.

While a veteran like Joc Pederson appears expendable with the return of outfielder A.J. Pollock, another trait of this management team is to not trade away players off the roster that have been first-half contributors, preferring to package Minor Leaguers instead, like last year’s 5-for-1 Machado deal.

Possible scenario
A best-case-scenario might be Detroit right-hander Shane Greene in a deal for a pair of prospects not named Ruiz/Lux/May/Smith. Maybe they’ll acquire a starter to turn into a reliever, or one that would allow for turning Kenta Maeda into a reliever. Or maybe they’ll go back in time and reacquire Watson of the Giants or Daniel Hudson of the Blue Jays. The Dodgers acquired both before and they play for two of the few teams out of the race so they should come relatively cheaply.

I believe that Hudson and Watson are the best possibilities… all things considered. Vasquez would be awesome, but I do not believe Friedman will trade a TOP 5 prospect.

At any rate, AJ Pollock, Corey Seager, and David Freese will be back and playing tonight at a ballpark in Boston. Let the second half begin.

DC’s Minor League Lowdown

DSL Dodgers (Bautista) – Rays (1) 0

Two pitchers did all the work in this game. Heisell Baro pitched 5 innings on 2 hits, one walk, and 4 strikeouts. Axel Acevedo pitched a clean 4 innings with 5 strikeouts.

The Dodgers scored 3  in the 2nd on RBI singles by Jose Garcia and Jose Aguilar and a ground out. They scored another run in the 3rd on a single by  Harold Restituyo and 2 in the 7th on a sac fly and a wild pitch. Restituyo had 3 hits.

DSL Dodgers (Shoemaker) 1 – DSL Cubs 11

All 4 pitchers gave up runs to the Cubs; Hugo Beltran (5 IP) 2 runs, Eli Moron (3 IP) 4 runs, Raidel Chacon (0.1 IP) 4 runs, Frankelyn Feliz (0.2 IP) 1 run.

The lone run scored in the 4th by Juan Diaz. All 3 Cubs hits came in the 4th inning.

AZL Dodgers Mota  and Lasorda were not scheduled

Ogden Raptors  13 – Idaho Falls Chukars  (Kansas City) 5

Starter Antonio Hernandez and Nelfri Contreras combined for 6 innings and 5 runs. Melvin Jimenez pitched 2 innings striking out 6 with no hits and a walk. Jeff Belge loaded the bases in the 9th but Ricardo Hernandez came in to get the third out and strand all 3 runners.

The Raptors continued the fireworks beginning with a home run by Brandon Lewis in the 2nd and scoring 6 in the 4th on a Sauryn Lao single, a 2-out Jeremy Arocho 2-run double and an Andy Pages 3-run home run. Sauryn doubled home another run in the 5th while Brandon Lewis doubled home 2 more. Two gift runs came home in the 7th on a ground out and a wild pitch. Tre Todd put the topper on it with a home run in the 9th. Lewis, Ward, Todd, Arocho all had 2 hits.

Great Lakes Loons 3 – Cedar Rapids Kernels (Minnesota)1

Jack Little (5th round -2019) started for the Loons. He was a closer with Stanford in 2018 and 2019. He had his second good start going 3 innings with 2 hits, no walks, and 2 strikeouts. He is on an innings limit of 3 innings or a pitch limit of 45. On Thursday he threw 37 pitches, 26 for strikes. Justin Bruihl pitched a scoreless inning while Jose Chacin finished up with 5 innings in which he gave a solo home run on his first pitch and ended up retiring the last 11 hitters he faced.

The Loons scored 2 in the top of the 7th on a Leonel Valera single driving home Matt Cogen  and James Outman. They picked up an insurance run in the top of the 9th on a Chris Roller single, an inning that featured a double steal by the Loons. Roller had 2 hits giving him an 11-game hit streak and a 24-game on-base streak.

Ranch Cucamonga Quakes 8 – San Jose Giants 4

Geraldo Carrillo started with 2 scoreless inning with 3 strikeouts and gave way to Wills Montgomerie who surrendered 4 runs in 5 innings. He did strike out 6. Connor Strain and Darien Nunez finished up with a scoreless inning each.

At the plate the Quakes put up a 3-spot in the 3rd on a Jeren Kendall 2-run double and a Jeter Downs SF. One more came home in the 6th on a bases loaded walk with 3 more in the 7th on a Connor Wong 2-run triple and a Deacon Liput single. Donovan Casey drove home an additional run  in the 8th with a single. Liput and Casey had 2 hits each.

Tulsa Drillers 5 – Northwest Arkansas Naturals ( Kansas City) 2

Victor Gonzalez started for the Drillers and left after 1.2 scoreless innings in which he gave up 2 hits and walked one. Logan Bawcom came on to replace Gonzalez and pitched 6.1 innings  allowing one run on 6 hits while striking out 6. Jordan Sheffield came on in the 9th and allowed the first 4 hitters he faced to get on base, 2 with walks and 2 hits, with one run scoring. The winning run came to the plate with the bases loaded but  he was able to get out of it with a 97 mph fastball and a wicked curve ball.

The Drillers scored one in the 2nd on a Drew Avans single and one in the 5th on an Omar Estevez SF. Cody Thomas made it 3-1 in the 6th  with a solo home run. They added 2 more in the 8th on a 2-out double by Drew Avans. Zach McKinstry, batting in the leadoff spot, had his second straight 3-hit game, going 3-5. Avans and Estevez had 2 hits each.

OKC Dodgers 8 – Memphis Redbirds (St. Louis) 6

Dustin May made his first post All-Star start and over 5 innings he gave up 5 hits, 4 runs (3 ER), walked 3 and struck out 3. Shea Spitzbarth, Jaime Schultz and Josh Sborz all contributed a scoreless inning while Justin Grimm gave up 2 runs on 3 hits in his inning. Schultz picked up the win while Sborz collected his second save.

Offensively the Dodgers scored 2 in the top of the first on a Zach Reks single scoring DJ Peters who had doubled and Edwin Rios who had walked. Gavin Lux drove home one in the 2nd with a single. Lux proceeded to bring home 3 more in the 6th with a 2-out 3-run double. Tied at 6 in the top of the 9th, Edwin Rios hit a solo home run and Connor Joe brought in another run with a SF. Besides Lux with his two hits, Kyle Garlick had 2 and DJ Peters had a 3-hit night.