The Leadoff Man
There has been a lot of conversation recently about who should hit leadoff for the Dodgers. Shohei Ohtani has been the leadoff hitter in nearly every game he has played for the Dodgers in 2024 and 2025, and it remains the same this year. Oh, and I should mention that with Ohtani…
There has been a lot of conversation recently about who should hit leadoff for the Dodgers. Shohei Ohtani has been the leadoff hitter in nearly every game he has played for the Dodgers in 2024 and 2025, and it remains the same this year. Oh, and I should mention that with Ohtani leading off, the Dodgers have always won the World Series. They are going for their third in a row, with Ohtani again hitting leadoff. However, some fans do not like him there and want him to hit second, third, or even fourth!
To me, this is like a famous restaurant that has won a Michelin Award or a James Beard Award as one of the best restaurants, suddenly changing the recipe of their signature dish? Why on earth would they do that? If they have been crowned the best, why change the recipe? The same is true with the Dodgers. They have won World Championships twice, with Ohtani leading off. Before I go on, let me say that a leadoff hitter usually only leads off once a game. In a 162-game season, he leads off 162 times. However, if a hitter leads off 162 times a year, that hitter will get more at-bats than the number two hitter.
Over 162 games, assuming both stay healthy and bat every day:
| Hitter | Lineup Spot | Likely AB Range |
|---|---|---|
| Shohei Ohtani | #1 | 660–700 AB |
| Mookie Betts | #2 | 640–680 AB |
So Ohtani would likely get about 15–25 more AB than Mookie over a full season.
A good “middle of the fairway” estimate:
- Ohtani: ~680 AB
- Mookie: ~660 AB
Difference: ~20 AB.
There are two important stats to consider here, and they do not include batting average:
#1 – On Base Percentage; and
#2 – OPS
OPS is one of baseball’s favorite “quick read” stats. Think of it as a hitter’s engine output—how often he gets on base, plus how much damage he does when he swings.
What OPS stands for
OPS = On-base Percentage (OBP) + Slugging Percentage (SLG)
The two ingredients
1) On-Base Percentage (OBP)
How often does a player reach base?
Includes:
- Hits
- Walks
- Hit by a pitch
OBP answers: “How hard are you to get out?”
2) Slugging Percentage (SLG)
Measures power per at-bat
- Single = 1 base
- Double = 2
- Triple = 3
- Home run = 4
SLG answers: “How much damage do you do when you connect?”
Putting it together
OPS simply adds them:
OPS = OBP + SLG
Example:
- OBP: .380
- SLG: .520
- OPS: .900
How to read OPS
| OPS | Meaning |
|---|---|
| .700 | Meh / average-ish |
| .750–.800 | Solid |
| .800–.900 | Very good |
| .900–1.000 | Star-level |
| 1.000+ | Elite / MVP territory |
Why teams love it
It blends:
- Consistency (OBP)
- Power (SLG)
…into one clean number. A guy who walks a lot and hits bombs Shohei Ohtani) will have a huge OPS.
One caveat
OPS is a bit of a “quick cocktail”—it weights OBP and SLG equally, even though getting on base is actually slightly more valuable than slugging. That’s why advanced stats like OPS+ or wRC+ exist.
Bottom line
OPS tells you:
“How often does this guy get on… and how badly does he hurt you when he does?”
Shohei Ohtani is the best hitter on the Dodgers because he has the highest SLG% (over the past two years), the highest on-base percentage, the highest OPS, the most home runs, and the most stolen bases. He is also likely the fastest and best baserunner on the team… much faster than Mookie who has lost some speed the past two years.
I’ll end this with, “Why on God’s Green Earth would you want him to get fewer chances to put a baseball into orbit?” Ohtani has hit 18 leadoff home runs in the regular season the past two years. Aaron Judge may be a better hitter for average and OPS, but he doesn’t have Ohtani’s speed, and he doesn’t have the supporting cast Shohei has. If Shohei did not have the supporting cast that he has in LA, then maybe he should hit #2 or #3, but just because “that’s what they did back in the 50’s, 60’s, or 70’s” is no reason to do it now. If a player has an OPS of over 1.00, that means that, on average, he gets to first base every AB. That’s the guy I want leading off.
If he hits a HR leading off – GREAT! Later in the game, if he comes up with runners on base, they may walk him anyway, as the Toronto Blue Jays did in the World Series last year. Statistically speaking, Ohtani is worth more to the Dodgers as a leadoff hitter. PERIOD! It’s simple math… but 5 out of 4 people struggle with math. Even Ray Charles can see that! To me, Dave Roberts, and Andrew Friedman, Ohtani is the only choice at leadoff with his unique blend of power, speed, and OPS. You are entitled to your own opinion…
Dodger Notes and News
- Dalton Rushing has an “Edge” that I could get behind… and I think his teammates like it.
- Tanner Scott can make us forget Edwin Diaz, and he is in the process of doing just that.
- I can see the Dodgers having three in the Top Ten Cy Young Votes.
- Andy Pages likely won’t hit .300 this year, as he has been very fortunate with BABIP, but I am looking for progress: 30 HR… maybe .285.
- I think Freddie Freeman will be in the running for the batting title this year.
X-Cites
MiLB GAME SUMMARY REPORTS by Jeff
Tacoma Rainiers (Seattle) 3 – OKC Comets 1
It is a rare occurrence for a low-scoring affair at OKC. LHSP Logan Allen had his best start in the LAD organization. He still has a problem with walks, as he walked 5 in 4.0 scoreless IP.
RHRP Chris Campos relieved Allen in the fifth. He surrendered a double to his first batter faced. He got two groundouts but allowed a run-scoring RBI single to tie the score. He was removed due to an apparent injury, and RHRP Keynan Middleton entered with an inherited runner. Two batters later, Tacoma took a 3-1 lead, and the final score.
OKC’s lone run came in the 4th. RF James Tibbs III drew a BB, moved to 2nd on a groundout, and scored when 2B Austin Gauthier singled.
1B Ryan Ward and Tibbs III were the other Comets who singled.
RHRP Jerming Rosario fired 2.0 scoreless innings, and LHRP Ronan Kopp pitched a scoreless 9th. This was Kopp’s second consecutive positive appearance. Although he could not help himself by issuing a BB.
Tulsa Drillers 6 – Frisco RoughRiders (Texas) 1
After a lackluster start in his last game, RHSP Patrick Copen came roaring back. He completed 6.1 scoreless innings, allowing 1 hit. He walked 3 and struck out 9. He improved his record to 3-0 and lowered his ERA to 1.23 in 22 innings. In his 3 wins, Copen did not allow a run.
With one out in the 7th, Copen issued a walk on his 87th pitch. LHRP Evan Shaw got the final two outs in the 7th.
With a 6-0 lead, LHRP Maddux Bruns entered in the 8th and completed 1.0 inning, walking 2, hitting another batter, and throwing a WP. He gave up the sole Tacoma run on a sac fly.
LHRP Christian Suarez pitched a scoreless 9th with a BB and 2 K.
Tulsa scored the first run of the game in the first inning thanks to a BB, a 3B Kyle Nevin single, a 2nd BB, and an HBP, forcing in a run.
In the 6th, Tulsa scored 5 on just 3 singles, 2 BB, and 3 Tacoma errors. The big hit was Kyle Nevin’s 2-run single. This was his 2nd hit and 3 RBI. He was the only Tulsa hitter with a multi-hit game. There were no XBH.
DH Josue De Paula also had a big night with a single and 4 BB. 2B Jake Gelof reached 3 times thanks to 3 BB.
Great Lakes Loons 13 – Beloit Sky Carp (Miami) 9
The Loons scored the first run of the game, on a RF Mike Sirota HR (2).
LHSP Sterling Patrick started and had a rough game. In 4.2 IP, he allowed 3 runs on 4 hits, including 2 solo HR, 4 BB, and 6 K.
Four relievers followed with only RHRP Dilan Figueredo pitching well. He continued his sparkling start to the season. He pitched 2.0 perfect innings with 4K. He has pitched 11.2 IP, lowered his ERA to 0.77, lowered his WHIP to .043 and lowered his batting average against to .108.
Beloit held an 8-3 lead after 6, and 8-4 going into the 9th. The Loons parlayed 6 BB, 3 singles, 1 double, and a 2B Nico Perez grand slam (2) to tie the score. 3B Jose Izarra had a 2-run double. LF Charles Davalan had a 2-run single, and DH Jose Meza singled home the 9th run of the inning.
Every GL hitter had at least 1 hit, except CF Eduardo Quintero.
- Charles Davalan – 2-5, 1 BB, 1 run, 3 RBI
- Nico Perez – 2-5, 1 BB, 3 runs, 4 RBI, Grand Slam (2)
- Mike Sirota – 2-6, 2 runs, 1 RBI, HR (2)
C Jesus Galiz and Jose Izarra each had a double.
San Jose Giants 9 – Ontario Tower Buzzers 6
SS Joendry Vargas started the scoring in the 1st inning with his 3rd HR.
19-year-old RHSP Jesus Tillero allowed 4 runs (2 earned) on 5 hits, 4 BB, with 3 K. 22-year-old RHRP Robby Porco followed with 1.1 scoreless innings. He has not allowed a run in 13.0 IP this year.
Four relievers followed and combined to allow 5 runs (all earned) on 7 hits, 5 BB, and 5 K.
The Loons did not score again until the 6th. 6 walks and a 3-run double (7) by Vargas finished the scoring. Vargas had 4 RBIs on the night.
LF AJ Soldra had two hits and drew a pair of walks. Soldra and Vargas were the only Ontario hitters with a multi-hit game
DH Easton Shelton was the only other Ontario hitter with an XBH, with a double (4).
Note from Mark:
Monday morning, I leave for Miami for the week. The annual Water Quality Association Show and Convention is being held there this year. Lots of wheeling and dealing – this is where a lot happens for companies like US Water Systems. It’s a whirlwind of meetings, check-ins, and meet-ups, and this is where the power base of water treatment companies makes deals. TRANSLATION: I will be out all week. Carry on!
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Disagree, not disagreeable
10:15 PM ET Cubs (16-9) Dodgers (17-8) SP Jameson Taillon R 1-1 3.97 ERA SP Emmet Sheehan R 2-0 5.85 ERA Confirmed Lineup DH S. Ohtani L 1B F. Freeman L C Will Smith R RF Kyle Tucker L LF T. Hernandez R 3B Max Muncy L CF Andy Pages R SS Hyeseong Kim L 2B A. Freeland S 67° Wind 9 mph Out
My point about ‘career’ Is what Mookie did when he was 24 has nothing to do with what he can do today. So studying lifetime stats has little value for the future
Ohtani on a new streak. Most consecutive games NOT getting on base. What’s the Dodger record?
Another “ouch” for Ferris tonight at OKC. Tough year so far for our milb pitching
Welcome back Emmit Sheehan! OK Roki. Your turn!
Ugh. The Dodgers really screwed the pooch in this one. Sheehan was great–and then everybody who came out of the pen faltered. And, with the scored tied 4-4, Pages committed the sin of making the first out at 3B. So instead of the go-ahead run at 2B with no outs, it’s nobody on with one out. Ugh. Sheehan, like Wrobo before him, threw an unexpected gem. (We expect gens from Glasnow, Shohei, Yamamoto.) But the pen squandered it. Is this the Achilles’ heel for the might Dodgers? The pen needs help.
Well hell, back to the drawing board. Something needs a shaking. I shoulda gone to home depot
Nope, and the big hitters all struggled last night. Smith’s 3-run shot was the lone big hit. Pages, Teo, Tucker, Freeman, Ohtani all went ofer.
Roberts should have let someone else start the 7th. Letting Sheehan pitch to one batter was of no use. Vesia then proceeded to give up three runs even though one was charged to Sheehan. Bullpen blew that game.
True, he was at about 90 pitches. But then again if taken out and Vesia gives up those runs against right handed batters,, some might be saying why didn’t Roberts send him out for 1 more inning. And leave him in until he gives up a hit. Roberts ‘blows it’ either way
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