The Fall of Clayton Kershaw
Since 2009, the Los Angeles Dodgers have been Clayton Kershaw’s team. Excluding his rookie year of 2008, Clayton has NEVER had an ERA over 3.00 but once (3.03). His career ERA is 2.47. Until Monday, he had not pitched since early July this year due to injury, but this year his…
Since 2009, the Los Angeles Dodgers have been Clayton Kershaw’s team. Excluding his rookie year of 2008, Clayton has NEVER had an ERA over 3.00 but once (3.03). His career ERA is 2.47. Until Monday, he had not pitched since early July this year due to injury, but this year his ERA is 3.33. Those are pretty good stats, maybe even worthy of being a #2 starter on most teams. However, the 2021 Dodgers are not just any team.
Max Scherzer has a career ERA of 3.15, and while 3 years older than Clayton, is now the Dodgers’ ace. Actually, earlier in the season, Striker Buehler had surpassed Clayton as the Dodger’s ace, and recently, Julio Urias has moved ahead of Clayton on the Dodgers’ Ace Meter. If Trevor Buer were still pitching, Clayton would be the Dodgers #5 Starter.
On Opening Day, Clayton was the starter. That role is traditionally reserved for the “Ace” of the staff, although it could be argued that Striker Buehler and Trever Bauer (reigning Cy Young winner) should be ranked ahead of Clayton. The fact that Clayton and not Buehler or Bauer did not start should not be lost on us. Clayton still is a very good pitcher and his career ERA of 2.47 ranks him #1 in ERA for the modern ERA. The only one close is Jacob deGrom, but his prospects moving forward are not rosey.
What is not said by anyone close to the Dodgers is that Clayton Kershaw may need Tommy John Surgery. As I write this, I do not KNOW that, but there is certainly a lot of evidence that points to that:
- Clayton missed two months with what the Dodgers said was “forearm tightness.” Forearm tightness is a presurser or an indication that one needs Tommy John.
- During that time, Clayton and others also called it “elbow issues.”
- Clayton has a boatload of innings on that left arm.
- Clayton’s velocity is certainly down.
That evidence would not meet the threshold of “reasonable doubt” but in a civil court, I think it could sway you with a “preponderance of the evidence.” I think Clayton has a torn UCL and has nothing lose by pitching. I think he is trying to help win a second championship in any role needed. I think this is Clayton’s last season. It could end at any time if that UCL lets loose, but he is here for the present.
Clayton has three young children at home and a platform and the money to successfully run his charities. I think that right after the Dodgers win the World Series, Clayton will announce his retirement. He will retire as a Dodger. AJ Ellis recently said that “Clayton is a one-team pitcher.” Why not end that tenure as the Modern-Day ERA Leader?
As I said, I do not know any of this for sure, but this is what the evidence says. I am watching every start as if it is his last… it might be!
The Trevor Bauer Debacle
Count me in the camp that conventional wisdom is usually wrong and many (if not “most” or even “all”) national writers and bloggers do not know their rear-end from their face (Maybe there is s resemblance). Now, if the DA charges Bauer, that changes everything, but every day that passes makes it less likely that will happen. If Bauer is not charged, MLB has a huge problem. Many writers say that “Bauer has admitted….” I do not think they have a clue what the threshold for “evidence” might be.
If Trevor Bauer is not charged, I know that MLB can still suspend him, but this case is entirely different. Does MLB really want to get involved with what happens behind closed doors by consenting adults? Insofar as the facial damage to the woman accusing Bauer of beating her, she has accused him, but he has not admitted that he was the cause of those bruises. I am not arguing as to his guilt or innocence. I am saying that absent proof he beat the woman (not just an accusation) then there is no case. If the DA doesn’t charge him, Manfred will have a decision to make and it is clear to me that his decision-making ability is less than that of a chimp!
PHOTO CREDIT: LA DODGERS
More from Dodger Talk
Dodgers Food Trailer
I did this interview a couple of weeks ago with Chef Mike, who runs the Dodgers Food Trailer for the Great Lakes Loons. They are there for every home and road regular season and playoff game. They prepare three meals a day for approximately 50 people (players and coaches). Since games end late most evenings, they do not prepare breakfast. Many of their hotels have a complimentary breakfast anyway. However,…
Meet LAD 2026 Draft Picks 1-12
3 picks were High School players (2 SS and 1 OF). There was a college OF, college catcher, college SS, and 10 college pitchers. Of all the talk for a need for a catcher, the only catcher the Dodgers selected was Luke Bard, son of LAD bullpen coach Josh Bard. Bard was a 4th year senior from Houston Christian University. He is not a prospect, so the Dodgers are still…
Interview with Paul Beachy – Team Bus Driver For The Great Lakes Loons (LA Dodgers Minor League Team)
It’s been a few days since I did this interview. We have evidently been working my son-in-law (the video guy) like a rented mule at US Water Systems. However, I am taking him to London with me in a few days, so maybe Watford will buy him a pint as a tip, but he’s a dang Red Sox fan, so there is that! I thought that it would be interesting…
Thanks for Your Service: Chris Taylor
I was going to do this post when Chris announced he was retiring, then he changed his mind, but since the chances of him ever playing for the Dodgers again are slim and non-existent, I will go ahead with this post. He unretired, went on the IL, then decided to call it quits on May 24th. Taylor was born in Virginia Beach VA on August 29th, 1990. He attended Great…
Discussion (76)
Disagree, not disagreeable
If Bauer is not charged, Manfred has another huge can of worms on his plate. Ozuna, who had a situation close to Bauer’s, but for domestic violence, has not been charged, but had to enter a program for that kind of behavior. Still remains to be seen how that will all play out.
Muncy has a bruised knee from his ill conceived steal attempt of 2nd base. He will be back in the lineup on Friday. When those idiots ran out on the field last night, they were protesting the relocation of the people who lived in the Chavez Ravine area before Dodger Stadium was built. Little late in the game to voice that objection. And that was on the City of Los Angeles, and Mayor Poulson. Not the Dodgers. LA ceded the land to them. Lots of protest on Twitter today about the way security took them down. Also some video’s there since the Dodger broadcasts refuse to give those people air time. Rengifo in trouble in his native Venezuela. A warrant for his arrest has been issued. Allegedly he and his family forged papers to sell a property that was jointly owned by him and his exe wife. A violation of Venezuelan law. His father has already been arrested. He is the lawyer who forged the documents….
Yes.amazing catch by Ramos on Mookie. One of the best catches all year. I feared it could change the game right there. Good thing the Dodgers held on for the W.
Lets go Padres today. Gausman still has a very good era of 2.65 but he has been vulnerable for a few weeks now. Hopefully the Friars can beat them again.
Tough series coming up for the Dodgers in Cincy. They are fighting for their playoff lifes just like the Padres.
Good to see Lux keep hitting and reaching base. Nice shot in the arm from left field.
Keep it up, kid!
Go Dodgers!!!!!!!!!!!!
On another note, how about the great catch Henry Ramos made on Mookie’s drive to left? I thought a few years ago when he was in spring with the Dodgers, that they should have kept him on the roster. He popped a couple of long homers in spring and looked very good in the outfield. But that was 2017, Bellinger’s rookie season. Gausman pitching for the Giants today against Pierce Johnson. Padres own 2 HR’s against Gausman this year, Marisnick and Tatis. Giants have none against Johnson. Giants stay home to play the Braves. Then they go on the road to San Diego and Colorado, before 3 with the D-Backs and finishing with SD. Dodgers weekend series with the Reds features, Buehler-Castillo, Scherzer-Gray, Kershaw-Miley.
Lost in all the excitement was Julio Urias starting and winning on a night where we honored another great Mexican Left Hander, Fernando Valenzuela. As there are a lot of similarities between another pair of lefties in Kershaw and Koufax, Urias and Valenzuela should be linked together in the same manner. Urias and Valenzuela share the same cool demeanor on the hill and both had great breaking balls. They both handled the bat and fielded their positions extremely well for a pitcher. Both started their careers in Dodger Blue as teenagers at the ripe old age of 19 years.
Congratulation Julio on becoming the first 18 game winner on a special night dedicated to another Dodger great and fellow countryman.
True, so true Mark. You barrelled this one. Short, but sweet like a liner off Will Smith’s bat. Clayton is one of our all time greats. I would hate to see him retire at such a young age especially when we’re seeing Mad Max do his thing at 37 years young. Clayton has been compared to the great Sandy Koufax his entire career, I guess it’s only fitting that he hang ’em up a little early.
The Bauer situation feels a hell of a lot more like political theater, than justice. More like a cross between the “Me too” movement and Manfred’s personal grudge payback from constantly calling him out on his stupid decisions. People are so blinded by politics these days they don’t care for right and wrong or justice. The sportswriters all jumped the gun and declared man guilty, women victim without considering the facts. I’ll always remember my wife calling this situation extortion as soon as the news broke. She’s often right about this sort of thing.
The Padres won a game! There’s hope as we pull within one and a half. Can the Padres make it two in a row?
Urias was good enough last night. Good enough to get the W. Good enough to keep his ERA below 3. Bickford is getting bit by the home run bug lately and Vesia is a freaking stud! Kelly got his guy, and Treinen was wild, but dirty. Kenley made a statement by striking out the bottom of the order in order. To say the pitching on this team is great is an understatement.
The bats did enough to get the job done. 5 runs just about guarantees a victory with this team. I freaked out a little bit when JT he that humpback liner off the end of the bat! Don’t break Tio’s magic bat!!! I think they hide that stick from Belli so he doesn’t cancel out the good in it.
Trea Turner is freaking fast! That RBI infield hit was fun to watch. I still don’t understand why he and Mookie don’t bat back to back. They’re way too stuck on the lefty righty thing.
I love seeing Gavin Lux do his thing. Just stick to that line drive swing and take what they give you! Belli is still chipping in with a hit here, a walk there and great defense everywhere in the outfield. The team is really coming together at the right time. Who said they can’t just flip the switch?
Best of all, the D has been solid. It’s really hard to beat this team when they don’t give anything away.
It was a perfect time to sweep a perfect home stand against two division rivals. Now, we go back out on the road for three series with bookend off days and another after the Reds series. C’mon Padres. You help us and we’ll help you by smashing the Reds!
Whoever made the schedule this year needs to be fired. How the hell do the Padres and Giants play more than half of their games against each other over the last 20 games of the season? And how the hell to the Dodgers play out of division on the last series of the year? I hope that doesn’t happen again for a long time.
In case nobody noticed or cares, there’s a three way tie for the American League Wild Card(s). The Blue Jays, Yankees and Red Sox all knotted up 8 games behind the division leading Rays. The National League has three teams within a game and half of the second Wild Card. What a wild finish to a wild season!
CK has certainly not been ” The Man” for a few years. At least last season he was able to exorcise his post season demons by posting a 4-1 record in the playoffs. Including 2 wins in the World Series. His last ERA title was in 2017. His record over the last 4 years is a pretty decent 40-14. But those are not the numbers of an Ace. Pretty interesting story in MLBTR this morning about Chris Taylor and how he could command a 5 year 80 million dollar deal. They compare him to Ben Zobrist. But Zobrist was 35 when he signed that 56 million dollar deal with the Cubs, Chris is 31 right now. Zobrist also was not as versatile as Taylor. It was great to pick up a game on the Giants finally. I watched the end of their game, and I will say this, there is no give up on that team. They fought right up until the last out. They hit 4 solo homers and still lost by 3. Pagan’s outing was both hard to watch and impressive. He walked the first two hitters and then got the next 3. He also threw more balls than strikes. Congrats to Julio on his 18th win, Not a great pitched game, but good enough. HR bug has bit Bickford. Lets hope he finds his sea legs again before the playoffs. Going to meet up with Ted for lunch today. He is visiting a friend in our little corner of the world.