“The Dodgers Are Not Constructed for the Playoffs”
I have to confess that when I hear this, I don’t just chuckle; I erupt into crazed laughter. I mean, how do you construct a team for the playoffs? Maybe you just need to commission someone to make a cyborg for all nine positions? Many fans who read here have been around for…
I have to confess that when I hear this, I don’t just chuckle; I erupt into crazed laughter. I mean, how do you construct a team for the playoffs? Maybe you just need to commission someone to make a cyborg for all nine positions? Many fans who read here have been around for fifty, sixty, or seventy years, and most are conditioned to the way it used to be. Or maybe they are just grumpy old men who want to see the Dodgers win another World Series before they die, so they take leave of their rationality. It used to be that if you built a good team and just had the best record in your league, you would play the team that had the best record in their league for the World Series. Simple!
Well, it’s no longer that simple. If you are a truly great team and have the best record, you are penalized by not being able to play for about the first week of the playoffs. That makes you somewhat “stale” and then you have to play four more teams in a five or seven-game series in order to win the World Series. If you think that is easy, well, you, sir, are a dumbass! At the very least, you are old and slow. I am old, but not slow!
Many Dodger fans would complain if the Dodgers went 162-0. It’s in their DNA. It’s who they are. They minimize the fact that the Dodgers have been the most successful team in the past 10 years in all of MLB. They ridicule the fact that there has NEVER been a 10-year run like this in the history of Dodger baseball. They distort the fact that the Dodgers have won one world championship in that period and should have won two had it not been for the Cheating Astros. They fail at math and cannot comprehend how a superteam could put up the best record in either league and then just have to win four games to be a world champion. Now, it takes a baker’s dozen to win.
They say that the Dodgers aren’t built to win in the post-season but want the Dodgers to be ahead by 30 games in September so that they don’t have anything to play for and stagnate in October. Could it be that the Dodgers’ Brass is not playing every game as if it were game seven of the World Series? The Dodgers’ lead over their second-place team in their division (San Diego) is the largest in baseball. Should Doc manage every game “balls to the wall?”
Of course, we all want to win a World Series, but MLB has changed the rules. In times past, two teams (one from each league) played the best of four to see who would be the World Champion. Now, three division winners and three wild cards from each league start playing when the season is over. That’s way different, and if you even have a slight comprehension of how statistics and probability come into play, you have to know that randomness is now one of the biggest factors. We know the Reds are better than the Dodgers – the Reds are struggling his year, but they hold a winning record against the Dodgers as of right now.
Jason Stark wrote a piece for ESPN back in 2016 called “Why superteams don’t win the World Series.” It is now even more true than it was then. He wrote this:
This is Year 22 of the wild-card era. Just twice in the previous 21 seasons has a team like the Cubs, which led the major leagues outright in victories, gone on to win the World Series. The only two to win it all: the 1998 and 2009 Yankees. (No National League team has done it in 30 years, since the 1986 Mets.)
But even if we include teams that tied for the best record in the sport, the percentage of “best teams” that win a championship in baseball is much lower than in the other three major professional sports. In MLB, it’s just 19 percent (4-of-21) under this format. In the NFL, according to ESPN Stats and Information research, it’s 31 percent (8-of-26) under the current playoff format. In the NHL, it’s also 31 percent (11-of-36) since that league expanded to 16 playoff teams. And in the NBA, it’s a whopping 48 percent (16-of-33) in 33 seasons under the current 16-team setup.
Suppose, however, we consider a whole new definition of what constitutes the “best teams.” Suppose we just look at teams that have won 100 games in the wild-card era. Well, the odds don’t get any better. The Cubs are the 23rd team in the wild-card age to win 100 or more. You know how many of the previous 22 went on to win the World Series? That would be precisely two (again, those 1998 and 2009 Yankees).
But why? That’s the question. What makes this mission so close to impossible? What is it about the baseball postseason that sends so many great teams careening off an October cliff? We decided to ask a group of men who have lived through it.
Now granted, one of them (Joe Torre) managed those 1998 Yankees, a juggernaut that actually made it to the land of champagne and ticker tape. But all of these men have lived through enough October pain to understand exactly why winning a title in baseball is the toughest road in sports. So here are the tales they tell:
There’s not enough reward for being great
First off, think about what you get for being the best team. You get home-field advantage through the league championship series. And that’s about it. But is that enough? Home field is a huge advantage in those other sports. But in baseball, it can actually be a disadvantage, Torre thinks.
“I’m probably in the minority, but I always thought that starting a series on the road was an advantage,” he said. “And that’s because the home team is supposed to win twice. So if you go in and win the first one in their place, now you can run the table. I’ve always thought the home team had a lot more pressure on them.”
And guess which team he uses as the perfect example of that pressure? Right you are: The Cubs, even though the Cubs team that his Dodgers played back in 2008 was never in the same position to win that these Cubs are in. But Torre has spent enough of his life observing Cubs fans to admit he wanted to start that series in Chicago.
“When I managed the Dodgers in ’08, I think we benefited in ’08 from them not winning the World Series,” Torre said, “because we went into Chicago, and all they talked about was this drought or curse or whatever you want to call it — and we wind up sweeping them. Even though [that Cubs team] had nothing to do with it, [they] still had to answer for it.”
When things are going great and you see the home team feeding off the euphoria in the stands, it’s one of the most joyous sights in sports. But when things suddenly stop going so great? Uh-oh. Fans can get tense — especially in some of America’s most nervous metropolises. And when they do, you know who can get tense right there with them? We’re about to let you in on that.
This is quite a long read, but it is interesting. Everything that MLB has done to expand the playoffs makes it less likely that the best teams will be there to win the World Series. Al Yellon, who writes “Bleed Cubbie Blue,” wrote a piece last year entitled With MLB’s new playoff system, it’s impossible to ‘build a World Series team’. In it, he wrote:
It’s been said by many that teams who want to succeed in Major League Baseball should build a “World Series team.”
I’m here to tell you that’s basically impossible now that MLB has 12 teams in its postseason. This year, we have a World Series between the No. 7 seed and the No. 12 seed (that is, if all the teams were seeded by record, which they aren’t).
This doesn’t mean the playoffs aren’t entertaining. The first couple of rounds this year were a bit less than compelling, granted, but both LCS had entertaining moments, interesting games, great pitching and hitting and a walkoff win. If you want to enjoy October baseball — and if you’re here, I assume you’re a baseball fan who does — you simply have to accept that the World Series is no longer an attempt to crown the best team champion. It’s simply a tournament played over four-plus weeks’ time that results in a winner. That doesn’t mean it can’t be good and enjoyable baseball.
Even in the “olden days,” the World Series didn’t always crown the best team champion. Take, for example, the Cubs, who won 10 N.L. pennants in the 40 seasons between 1906 and 1945. That’s really good! They won just two World Series in that span, in 1907 and 1908. They had the better regular-season record both times. But in the other eight, all losses, the Cubs had the better record five times, including being 22½ games better than the White Sox in the only all-Chicago World Series in 1906. Two great pitchers, Ed Walsh and Doc White, shut the Cubs down and the Sox won the Series four games to two.
It. Happens. All. The. Time. And it’s more likely to happen now when we have more postseason series — and when MLB expands, perhaps by the end of this decade, we’ll likely have even more. I’m fully expecting MLB to have a 16-team postseason when there are 32 teams.
Too many? That’s an argument for a different day. Today I want to examine what this all means to the Chicago Cubs as they currently stand.
Last year, in the playoffs, the Diamondbacks scored a run when the batter hit a line drive off the pitcher, which bounced to Dansby Swanson, who dropped the ball. Had he fielded the ball cleanly (which he usually does) the Diamondbacks would not have been in the playoffs. What a random play, and it happens all the time.
Yellon ends up with this:
To circle back to the headline, you can’t build a “World Series team.” Teams that appeared to have done that this year — Dodgers, Braves in particular — are watching the World Series at home with the rest of us.
Build a team that’s good enough to get into the October tournament and withstand injuries. That is, in my view, what the Cubs have to do to be able to get in the playoff conversation every year, or nearly so. Do that and it should work out in a championship or two, eventually.
The same is true with any team in baseball, including the Dodgers. In the new playoff format, the team that spends the most money seldom wins. Last year, the Texas Rangers were set to win the Division and went into a four-game series with Seattle. All they had to do was split the series with them. Instead, they lost three out of four and went into the playoffs as a Wild Card. We know how it ended. The stars aligned, and Josh Sborz, who had a career ERA of over 5.00, was one of the pitching heroes. Lightening in a bottle. Totally random.
I think the Dodgers have collectively decided that they are not going to “push” the players this year. It’s a tricky thing to do. You just try to lighten everyone’s workload, and maybe the lead in September will be under 10 games. There’s something to be said about “cruising early in the season” and “sprinting at the end.”
Me? I am enjoying every game. This is the best time in my life to be a Dodger fan. They win 100 games every year, and the Farm System produces – there is no end in sight, but you need to come to grips with the fact that winning games is fun, too. The playoffs are not like anything we used to know when the top team in each league played for the title. It’s much more complicated than that and dramatically more random. Some of you may prefer to remain delusional and say “It’s a failure if they don’t win the World Series.” I prefer reality!
Batting Averages
Have you ever noticed that batting percentages are communicated in “averages?” A player may go 10 for 25 and then go 0-25, but their batting average is .200 or 10-50. It’s an “average.” It’s not what happens every game. A player can go 0-4 in one game and 3-4 the next. There is an element of luck involved, and you can look at BAbip to see how that can factor in. You can hit a ball right on the screws and right at someone, and you are out, or you might check your swing and accidentally hit a triple. Such is the great game of baseball.
Last Night
It was an ugly game. Yohan Ramirez is a rehab project, so AF must think the “juice is worth the squeeze,” but he won’t get a ton more opportunities unless he can’t stop hitting and walking batters. I love Will Smith, but Austin Barnes is a much better game-caller. I put the grand slam squarely on Wills’ shoulders. He called for five straight four-seam fastballs. Any MLB player can time a 92-93 MPH fastball when fed a steady diet of them. At least the bottom of the lineup produced some hits. Will they play CT3 again today? Today is a new day!
James Outman has 2 hits, 8 strikeouts, and 6 walks in 17 Plate Appearances at OKC. Yikes! But, he did have a key hit last night.
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Discussion (55)
Disagree, not disagreeable
From the Dodger’s Official Page:
RHP Bobby Miller (right shoulder inflammation)
Expected return: June
The next step for Miller is to pitch in a rehab game with Single-A Rancho Cucamonga on May 26, according to manager Dave Roberts. That start is scheduled for four innings. Miller will need at least a couple of rehab starts before returning to the Dodgers’ rotation. (Last updated: May 21)
From the Dodger’s Official Page:
RHP Evan Phillips (right hamstring strain)
Expected return: Late May or early June
Manager Dave Roberts said Phillips threw 21 pitches in live batting practice with Single-A Rancho Cucamonga on May 23. The right-hander is scheduled to make his first start with Rancho on May 26.
“He came out of it really well,” Roberts said on May 24 in Cincinnati. (Last updated: May 24)
I agree with your column. But the Dodgers insist they are playing the long game and then when they get the long game they don’t win a game. Why does Roberts insist on saying “if we don’t win the World Series we have failed” that is a bit of an arrogant statement since the Dodgers haven’t gotten out of the first round in 2 years. You win before you run your mouth and put more pressure on your team. The Dodgers are a great organization, proven regular season winners which is enjoyable. If all these things are true, it is random, then there are no favorites. So don’t act like you should win until u do.
It amazes me how long it takes for any of our guys to come back from the dl. Remember Muncy was going to be right back lol Phillips, miller etc
For example Snell missed spring training, started pitching, goes on the injured and now is back again but our guys got to have a couple of months. I expect Kershaw and May to be back by the all star break…next year.
Mark, two things before I get started with my point of view about the Dodgers and contstructing a team for the postseason.
First, when you click the link to the GL box scores the Tulsa box score pops up. At least that is what is happening to me.
Second, if you have the best record in baseball you win your division and then you have to face only 3 more teams (not 4 ) to win a WS. DS, CS , WS.
So now on to the topic of todays blog: No, you can not construct a team that is assured to win a WS. That was never the case and never will be. These are human beings playing the game so NOTHING is assured.
What you can do: Built a team that has the best possible chance to win a WS.
To do it you first must make it to the postseason tournament (because that is what it is these days).
A good team during the regular season has to have depth and that is the Dodgers absolute strength since AF has taken over. They are deeper than any other organization, maybe the Braves and Yanks come close but the Dodgers in my book are the Nr.1 team in this department.
Depth means that usually your Nr. 3-5 starters are better than the opposing teams starters in those slots. Gives you good shot to win those games . Depth also means you can cope with injuries better than other teams. We are witnessilng this right now again with our bullpen. Although missing some key arms we are still the second best team in the NL.
To be good in the postseason you need good to great pitching at the top of the rotation. A lot of teams can start 2 very good to elite pitchers who have the ability to shut any team down on any given day. And that is where it gets getting tricky to win a postseason series. The postseason as a big equalizer to a superior 1-5 rotation since you do not need that 4th or 5th starter in the playoffs. And as we all know good pitching beats good hitting any day.
Not by coincidence the year the Dodgers won the WS in 2020 we had Kershaw and Buehler at the top of their game during the postseason. Plus Julio who was putting up zeros for multiple innings and closing out games. Or you need A bona fide , reliable closer preceeded by 1-2 set up guys who are nails.
On the hitting side you need a balanced and deep lineup that can overcome cold streaks by your top hitters. We saw that with the Dodgers too the last years. When our top hitters went into a funk there was nobody who could step in and up to replace their production.
Which leads me to this: Dodgers have not only a deep rotation but they appear to have a couple of aces in Glasnow and Yamamoto (who will only get better with experience in MLB). We have a bona fide closer in Phillips and we could have someone like Julio in 2020 if maybe May can come back in time and form for the postseason. We have solid setup guys with Hudson, Treinen, Graterol and Kelly. another LHRP like Scott from the Marlins would be huge.
And that leaves the problem with this team that worries me: The bottom of the lineup and the bench. We are weak their without question. Should guys like Kike, CT3 , Lux, Barnes,Rojas (whose average is sinking fast) , Pages not be able to produce at least adquately the Dodgers should bring in another bat or two. Perferably an OF or SS.
I am still voting for Robert jun. from the WS. He would fill a couple of needs. Great defense and a very good, reliable power bat with speed on the bases.
So to sum it up: No, you can not built a team that is assured to win the WS. But you can built a team who checks all the boxes what is required to have the ultimate succes in the postseason. I am not sure that AF and the Dodgers with all their financial resources have done this often enough in the last 10 years. IMHO there were too many years when the Dodgers did not check enough of those boxes and it was visible before the postseason started.
Go Dodgers!!!!!!!!!
People on this site can spin it anyway you want, but the fact of the matter is that our outfield is SHIT,plain and simple. We’re very lucky we are in a weak division and can outspend everyone. Division titles mean nothing. If we were to enter the playoffs as of today, it will be a short stay. AF and BG have ample time and prospect capital to fix the outfield by trade. Besides Theo with 1.3 WAR ( Wins Above Replacement) a key metric , the remaining outfielders who have played is .5 combined. Also 7-9 in the lineup is a combined BA.192. This is not sustainable to win a championship. You spend 1.3 billion dollars in the off season and expect to win the World Series, but this team has many flaws. Right now two teams that are better than the Dodgers are the Phillies and Yankees with better lineups.These are the facts,like or not.I want WS rings niot division titles.
So you’re saying it’s a crapshoot?!!!!! It sure helps if you have a couple of dominant starting pitchers and the Dodgers may have that come October with Glasnow, Yamamoto and Buehler. Keep them healthy and rested. If you’re the second seed then you don’t get the Phillies or Braves in the second round