The Dodgers Are Alive and Well Thanks to Andrew Friedman
I was going to discus the State of the Pitching, but now I am going to wait until next week when we have a better idea what is happening with one Clayton Kershaw. That can change everything. Also, what follows is something that I think needs to be discussed. As most of you know…
I was going to discus the State of the Pitching, but now I am going to wait until next week when we have a better idea what is happening with one Clayton Kershaw. That can change everything. Also, what follows is something that I think needs to be discussed.
As most of you know, the Dodgers won the World Series in 1988 as heavy underdogs, and then did not again even sniff the World Series until 29 years later. I think some fans believe that Andrew Friedman was hired as the President of Baseball Operations for the Dodgers in 1989 and this World Series drought has all been his fault, However, he was actually hired in the Winter of 2014, and 2015 was his first season. Before his first season, through free agency or trades, the Dodgers parted ways with shortstop Hanley Ramírez, outfielder Matt Kemp, second baseman Dee Gordon, and pitchers Brian Wilson and Dan Haren. However, they bolstered their farm system and added key players such as catcher Yasmani Grandal, infielders Howie Kendrick and Jimmy Rollins, as well as pitchers Brett Anderson and Mike Bolsinger.
Friedman helped lead the Dodgers to their third straight National League West division title in 2015, but the team fell to the New York Mets in the National League Division Series (NLDS), 3–2. After the 2015 season, MLB penalized the Dodgers with a record $43 million luxury tax after determining their payroll was nearly $300 million, also an all-time record. For the record, Friedman inherited most of that payroll.
In 2016, Friedman cut the payroll to less than $250 million and the Dodgers advanced to the NLCS. In 2017, Friedman again cut payroll to $241 million and took the team to the World Series, where they lost in 7 games to the Astros. Finally, this past season, Andrew Friedman was able to get under the Luxury Tax as was mandated by team ownership and he still saw the team get to the World Series.. and lose to a better team. The team payroll in 2018 was reduced to $187 million. That resets the luxury tax penalty. So, just to be clear, Friedman cut the payroll of the Dodgers from almost $300 million to $187 million while delivering the best record in baseball during his tenure and taking the team to two consecutative World Series! But not only is that not enough for some fans… they believe he should be fired!
While all of this was going on, Friedman rebuilt the front office with a plethora of old-school baseball guys, hired a team of statisticians, re-assembled a minor league training staff and built the struggling and emancipated Farm System into one of the top systems in baseball. He didn’t do it like the Cubs or the Astros by tanking for several years and hoarding draft picks. He built the team while winning the NL West every year and going to the playoffs and World Series. And… yes, they lost two straight World Series! So Friedman should be fired? Are you crazy?
The Dodger organization is the best it has been in 30 years! THIRY FREAKING YEARS! Now, I was on record that when FAZ was hired, I thought they should have “blown up” the team… traded away everyone they could and stockpile draft picks, but Stan Kasten told Friedman that he had to rebuild while remaining competative. What Friedman was asked to do was like boxing with one hand behind his back. But he did it. He built a damn good team and a damn good farm system… the only problem was that he built the second best team two years in a row.
Some of you want the Dodgers to fire him and hire a “baseball guy”. Ned Colletti is a “baseball guy” and he is available. Thanks, but I’ll pass. As I said yesterday, Andrew Freidman is not perfect, but he’s pretty dang good! Here’s a quote from a Dodger fan:
FAZ is very weak in FA and trades for players. We should not expect them to trade for any major talent like Realmuto because that is not how they usually work. They are cheapskates and dumpster divers. They are a very imbalanced FO when it comes to procuring talent that is not walking wounded or used goods. Sure, every dog has its day and sometimes they get a little lucky, but their MO is cheap and cheerful.
It’s not just one person who believes that… lots of people say the same thing, but when FAZ took over the team they had the highest salary in baseball… by far… and a bunch of bad contracts from THE TRADE. FAZ had no money to spend. They had to get creative… and they did. Yeah, they signed Brett Anderson, Brandon McCarthy and Scott Kazmir, but they also refused to trade Corey Seager, Cody Bellinger, Julio Urias and Joc Pederson and they acquired Chris Taylor and Max Muncy for a bag of balls. They also acquired Andrew Toles, Austin Barnes, Yasmani Grandal, Kenta Maeda, Scott Alexader, Alex Wood and re-signed Kenley Jansen and Justin Turner.
This is not the ending they envisioned, but they were limited in what they could do. It’s easy for us to say who they should have traded for, but we really have no clue what other teams demanded. Would they rather have traded for Zach Britton than Ryan Madson? Duuuuhhhh! But, what did the O’s want for him? We don’t know. What we do know is that FAZ did trade for the TOP PLAYER at the deadline (Manny Machado) and as Watford Dodger (Our UK Connection) explained, the Dodgers would not have made it to the World Series without him, even though he may have underperformed in many fans eyes.
Let’s get one thing straight: FAZ did not lose the World Series. FAZ got them there. I wish the Dodgers had won the World Series in 2017 ands 2018… but they didn’t. The fact that they got there tells you they had a chance only 3 teams in all of baseball had. The Red Sox were a VERY, VERY good team who had several players step up in the playoffs BIG TIME. Players like Steve Pearce (platoon player), Joe Kelly (4.39 regular Season ERA – 0.00 in World Series), Nate Eovaldi and David Price were unconscious. The Dodgers pitching and hitting collapsed during the Series. Is that FAZ’s fault? Remember they were playing a better team that was favored to win.
How were the Red Sox built? A lot of home-grown players and few trades and free agents. While the Yankees got all the ink for trading for Giancarlo Stanton and his $300 million contract, the Red Sox signed JD Martinez for about a third of that. Martinez may very well be the best bargain in baseball. Signing players to stupid big contrcats is not the path to winning. Allegedly, the Red Sox were ready to walk if Martinez did not sign the $110 million deal. That deal worked out pretty good. The David Price and Rick Porcello deals looked bad at times for a year or two, but the stars aligned for the 2018 World Series. I’m betting that the Dodgers future is brighter than that of the Red Sox.
FAZ Should Have Built a Better Bullpen
Yes, I agree. However, relievers are a fickle bunch. Joe Kelly was Scott Alexander during the regular season… actually he was worse than Alexander, but in the World Series he was Superman. Who knows… Alexander may be unhittable next year. That’s the nature of relief pitchers. I know this: If you throw out a relief pitcher after a bad season, you likely will regret it later. 2018 was the year the Dodgers had to get under the Luxury Tax. If I have to explain why, then you aren’t going to get it anyway!
Assuming that the Dodgers will not sign a player to an extended long-term contract, is based upon past practices that are no longer valid:
- The Dodgers got out from under the Luxury Tax;
- The Luxury Tax Threshold goes up to $206 million this year;
- The Dodgers have gotten rid of the bad contracts, except for Kemp (and this is his last year); and
- There are players on the market who will get some big $$$$ deals, but they are 26 or 27 years old – that’s a big difference from signing a 32 or 33 year-old to a long term deal!
Instead of bitching about FAZ, you should thank your lucky stars that they are running your favorite team. Past performance was based upon a unique set of circumstances that no longer exist. The financial constraints are gone, the bad contracts are gone and this is a new paradigm. Many of you think thew Dodgers will not sign Manny Machado or Bryce Harper and you probably are one of the fans who do not believe they would trade for Manny Machado either.
I have no idea how FAZ values Manny or Bryce, but I believe they will be players for them. Many fans wanted FAZ to trade for Gioncarlo Stanton but his $300 million contract is a boat anchor. Quick: If you could have JD Martinez or Stanton who would you take? The Red Sox drew a line in the sand and got Martinez for $110 million. Again, signing big name free agents to long-term deals is usually not the path to success. Patrick Corbin, Dallas Keuchel and Jacob deGrom are three pitchers who will likely get big dollar deals, but all will be over 30 next year and how far out do you want to go? Again, that is generally not the path to success. Buying aging pitchers generally ends badly.
I thought, as did many others that David Price and Justin Verlander were done. The Astros have one more year with Verlander and that may end up ok, but Price is a pitcher I do not think will hold up – the Red Sox caught lightening in a bottle… and, make no mistake winning a World Series does take some luck, but it is what it is. I would not touch those pitchers, but I would consider Manny and/or Bryce… at the right price.
Many of the top baseball minds consider Manny Machado as the best free agent in 2018. He was somewhat disappointing as a Dodger with a .825 OPS… not bad, but not superstar caliber. He dipped even more in the post-season to a .672 OPS – very pederstrian. Was he pressing? Was the weight of a new contract messing with him? Was being on a bigger stage a factor? Yes, Yes and Yes! I would not let that stop me from going after Manny and I think FAZ would sign him… at the right price.
Did Manny’s antics in the playoffs hurt his value? I don’t think so. In fact, like lots of things, if you look beyond thge obvious, you might have a different opinion. For example, Manny’s stepping Jesus Aguilar’ s foot looks bad… until you get into the context. Dodger players had been complaining all series that Aguilar was keeping his foot on the base too long, but he wouldn’t do anything about it. Manny did something about it, and secretly earned his teammates respect. What the media perceives as a negative, may actually be a positive. The umpires knew about it, which may be part of the reason Manny wasn’t ejected from the game. It wasn’t a bush league play – it was a guy doing something for his team.
Manny’s tenure with the Dodgers was so-so, but at age 26, he will likely get better every year for the next few years… and he has a body that does not seem prone to breakdown. Unlike Bryce Harper, he is on the field everyday. I think the Dodgers will sign him… if it makes sense. I’d sooner give him $300 million than Stanton, but I would not give that to eiher player. It has been speculated that Machado and Harper might get $300 to $400 million, but it was also speculated that JD Martinez might get $200 million and he only got $110 million. I think FAZ will be in on Manny at the right price… and that price might be around $200 to $250 million. I see no way anyone gives him $300 to $400 million. Just my opinion.
I think you will see FAZ spend more on the bullpen than they have in the past because they will have more to spend. You will also likely see signings like Morrow, Blanton and Koehler as well… because it just makes sense, but the Dodgers have a boatload of possible relievers next season (I’ll talk about that next week) from the minors that they don’t need to make any dope-fiend moves.
Finally, I have heard a lot of talk about how bad Chris Taylor was in 2018 and while I would like to see him cut his strikeouts down by 10 – 15%, he really wasn’t horrible. Compare him to another CF that many would love to have, Ender Inciarte. I think CT3 can improve and at least be as effective as he was in 2017… maybe better. We will talk about it more in the offseason, but I believe that the Dodgers will make it a priority to cut down the teams’ strikeouts. FAZ is not nearly as stupid as some may think… in fact, we all should be very happy that Andrew Friedman is running the Dodgers.
2018 Stats
|
Ender Inciarte |
Chris Taylor | |
|
597 |
AB |
536 |
|
158 |
H |
136 |
|
27 |
2B |
35 |
|
10 |
HR |
17 |
|
86 |
SO |
178 |
|
49 |
BB |
55 |
|
.265 |
BA |
.254 |
| .325 | OB% |
.331 |
|
.705 |
OPS |
.775 |
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Discussion (166)
Disagree, not disagreeable
Sounds like they just added a year at the current rate.
Deal done. 3 years, 93mil plus incentives (like showing up in october)
I think the “incentives” portion should favor the Dodgers. Like, if you suck in October, you owe us some money back
The Dodgers have struck a new deal with star lefty Clayton Kershaw, per Tim Brown of Yahoo Sports (via Twitter). It’s a three-year, $93MM pact, per Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic (via Twitter). There are no opt-outs in the pact, Brown adds in another tweet, but Kershaw can boost his earnings through bonuses.
I don’t find it strange that the Dodgers saved a million on Freese. When they picked up Forsythe’s option it was for player they expected to be playing regularly at 2B. Don’t think they thought he wasn’t going to measure up. In the case of Freese, they’re probably thinking of him as just a bench piece, and occasional fill-in.
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I still would like to see Machado come back. But I am in agreement with Mark that is has to be at a reasonable price. The Dodgers could use his right handed hitting bat.
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I’d also like to have Harper as well. Again, money and years probably matter, but I’m perfectly certain that Dodgers brass can do the math, and figure out what makes sense.
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I don’t know if the Dodgers would sign both players, but if they did it would create lots of flexibility for other deals.
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Just popped up on my phone that Kershaw signed 3-year extension for $93 million, with no opt-outs.
Good post Mark. I, for one, am extremely grateful that we have FAZ in our front offices. Do they swing and miss occasionally? Absolutely. But then, so do Epstein/Hoyer, Cashman, Chernoff and Luhnow. More often than not, however, they get it right and hit the ball on the screws. Moreover, the fact that FAZ was able to keep the Dodgers very competitive while subtracting 100 million from the payroll is no small feat. The other GMs mentioned had the luxury of tanking for several years so they could restock their system with top draft choices. Making draft selections in the top 10 picks is significantly easier than making the right selection at #25. Even then, these GMs have swung and missed badly (say hello, Mark Appel and Hayden Simpson).
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Dave Roberts also makes mistakes. As do Madden, Hinch, Francona, Cora, and Boone. Baseball is one of the more difficult and unpredictable games to play. “Failure” is more apt to happen than “success.” Average 3 hits out every 10 at-bats for and entire season and you might soon be a millionaire. Lead your team to 100 wins, it is going to be coupled with 62 losses. Friedman had the foresight to hire Madden at TB. FAZ hired Roberts, when everyone assumed the job would be handed to Kapler. They obviously saw something in Roberts they really liked. I think they are going to hitch their ponies to his wagon for the foreseeable future. He hasn’t proven them wrong. As to all the people that bitch and moan that Roberts is merely a puppet that only does what he’s told by FAZ, please lay out what actual evidence you have to support that. I look forward to him managing the team for several more years, and while I may cuss at the TV now and again when he makes a decision that I don’t agree with, I rest in the fact that he has much more information available to him than I do sitting in my recliner with the remote in my right hand.
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Val9000 – your Grandal joke was priceless! By the way, I don’t think there is a snowball’s chance that Grandal accepts the QO.
Contracts like that still just blow my mind. That is, players get paid for what they have done. However, if one has to be signed, Clayton is a good choice. He is a fine young man, a good family man, charitable and represents the team well. He wants to be a Dodger and I expect this will be his last contact. He will retire as a Dodger. He may well have a no trade clause.
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I expect his first and foremost goal is to help bring a ring to LA. His inability to do so thus far must weigh heavily on him. He no doubt will no longer be a No.1 as we have witnessed his slow regression. Maybe he does reinvent himself as he is definitely team oriented and wants to do well. Being second behind Walker Buehler would not be so bad. It may well be beneficial to him. Go Clayton.
Dodgers extend the Qualifying Offer to Grandal
Dodgers also extend qualifying offer to Ryu
A good day for the dodgers. They are operating from a position of strength. I hope they’re talking to all class of free agent and discussing deals teams rich and poor. I think we’ll see more turnover than usual. The rotation and outfield could use some paring.
Some predictions:
Grandal declines the q.o. and we sign a FA catcher to a two-year deal.
Ryu accepts the q.o. and pitches in our rotation all year.
Kershaw wins a ring during his new contract.
First – I am totally enthused about Kershaw’s return. A very reasonable way to bring him back and to have him for a not unreasonable term. He should be a Dodger for life and it looks like he may be.
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I am also pleased to have Freese back – he will be this year’s Chase Utley. And he can hit in the clutch (unlike most Dodgers).
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It made sense to make the qualifying offer to Grandal. It sounds like the Dodgers’ other catching prospects are a year or 2 off at least. I don’t seen Grandal accepting the QO and I really wonder if they bring him back for 3 or more seasons – I have real concerns that he has been on the bench for most of the last 2 World Series. If they can’t trust him in the biggest games then no matter how good he has played at times (and he has been very good at times) you have to wonder whether he should come back.
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I am much more surprised about Ryu’s QO. He pitched 80 very good innings this year. He was 5 – 9, 3.77 with a 4.74 FIP in 2017 and pitched 4 innings in 2016. He has a spotty injury history to be sure. He accumulated 2.2 WAR last year per Baseball Reference and 8.6 WAR in 5 seasons. In 2018, he was 22nd in the NL in pitching WAR.
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About the Braintrust – according to our host, it has, by itself, put the Dodgers in the Series 2 seasons in a row. The players signed or drafted by the ‘Trust’s predecessors don’t matter, I guess.
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Obviously, analytics are here to stay and should be. The question is really how to blend the conclusions reached by the nerds with those of the baseball guys to come up with real decisions about how the team should operate. In my view, the Braintrust over-emphasizes the numbers and has designed a style of play that is almost unwatchable. It’s not solely a matter of wins and losses (although that is an issue) – it’s baseball aesthetics. A game where nothing happens – the pitcher and catcher play catch and the hitter walks, Ks or hits a HR – not that interesting. Baseball is concerned that younger fans are tuning out – is there any wonder why? Baseball has so little action and it gets worse annually.
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The Dodgers had 1394 hits, 1436 Ks, 647 walks. More Ks than hits. They had 235 HR and 6358 plate appearances. This means that the “3 true outcomes” totaled 2318 out of 6358 PA, which is 36.5%. Almost unwatchable. Almost as bad as soccer!
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Mark emphasizes how smart and accomplished the Braintrust is. You can’t say that and assume that they aren’t OK with the way the offense played. The Ks are the byproduct of the offense that it designed. You can’t say that the ‘Trust desired bat-to-ball skills if it built the offense that it built
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I can see the Dodgers hitting even more HR, striking out even more, and hitting for an even lower average next season. It’s a matter of design. You will note that the Bosox hit differently with 2 strikes and 2 outs – the Dodgers just didn’t do that – most of them hit for the fences every time up. There are lessons that have to be learned.
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Reading excerpts of the interview given by Friedman and Zaidi, it looks like more of Tampa’s strategies are to follow. They are planning on training younger players to expect to have “openers” instead of starters, view starters as “bulk” pitchers (their words), more platoons and matchups (they believe that’s how the Dodgers won the pennant) – in other words, more nerd-oriented baseball, more ugly baseball. This won’t be much fun to watch. A parade of relief pitchers, platooned hitters (and pinch-hitters), lots of Ks and HRs.
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We will continue to have a parade of AAAA starters, injured guys and rookies in and out of the bullpen every year as the Dodgers struggle to find the 8 guys who might belong there.
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To recap – the Dodgers had a miraculous season last year (except for a horrible September). This year – they were awful to watch – one of the worst “clutch” teams ever who K’d, HR’d and BB’d at high levels but couldn’t knock in a run from 3rd base with less than 2 outs. An endless torrent of situational relievers who managed to have the 2nd most blown saves in baseball even with the advantage of matchups. A team who’s Pythagorean numbers suggested that they should have won 102 games but who won only 92 due to the inability to perform in the clutch.
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They have to operate differently next year but probably won’t.
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By the way – I doubt seriously they sign someone like Harper next year, but I don’t really think that they should anyway. Friedman says that he likes the team that he has and that the Dodgers will compete next year. I agree that they will be competitive even if the team only nibbles around the margins. But it is a team that should revamp its approach and its personnel.
If anyone thinks the offensive philosophy won’t evolve… well, I’ll just say: SILLY!
… which is why I say Realmuto and Verdugo!
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If you plug in those two and get some improvemnet from Bellinger and Taylor..
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The add in a healthy Corey Seager…
One final thing:
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WE see opportunities for improvement, but if you expect FAZ to articulate what they plan to do, you are delusional. There will be attempts at preventing the same issues that plagued the team last year, but there will be no press release.
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I just am incredulous that some believe that FAZ is OK with everything.
If the Dodgers make a move for Harper (I am not against it), then I would move him to LF and trade Pederson , Puig and Toles. That should net a nice return.
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Lineup:
1. Verdugo RF
2. Seager SS
3. Turner 3B
4. Harper LF
5. Realmuto C
6. Bellinger 1B
7. Taylor CF
8. Hernadez/Muncy 2B
Well because they have a track record (albeit under tax limitations) of how they do baseball, and the post WS press conference led one to believe they will continue down the swing and miss plate approach, and not change that approach, and their view of SP addressed from within the system.
I am hoping Friedman gets it, because he said the cause of the World Series loss, was because of the offense.
I think faz has done an outstanding job for the Dodgers. I can’t say a great job because we have not won a World Series with faz in charge. They have put our team in position to get to the World Series 2 years in a row despite being financially handicapped by the (trade). The Dodgers are definitely moving in the right direction with an exciting future ahead. The Kershaw signing was an ok move. He is fantastic in the regular season and I guess if price can do what he did it’s not too late for Kershaw. I hope he is able to exercise his playoff demons for his and the Dodgers sake. Maybe his health can be improved which would improve his stuff. He is not a number 1 in my mind so move over for Buehler. I believe his contract will exceed his performance but I would love to be wrong. I like the freese signing. No way in hell would I have given grandal a qualifying offer unless they are 90% sure he won’t take it. Please no grandal I don’t care what the stats say he is the biggest choker of all time. Ryu I like but like every pitcher his injuries concern you. As far as Roberts he has had much success. Unlike most on this board his platoons really don’t bother me I think it is mostly a strength. Why would you ever bat joc against a lefty but he can be lethal against righties. It is his dumbass in game decisions, his nonchalant attitude, his arrogance at times, his lack of urgency and I could go on to no avail. He is almost like Kershaw in that we own the regular season but he shrinks in the biggest moments. Roberts needs to grow for the Dodgers to win a World Series. Most everyone knows that except probably him who tries to explain away every dumb… decision.
Historically, platoons occur when players at that position are not good enough to play every day. Until we sign additional players who are good enough to play every day, the platoons will continue.
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Turner and Seager (Machado this year) are every day players. Puig plays mostly every day but … We tried to trade for any every day second baseman but got burned with first Forsythe and then Dozier. If Bellinger evolves from his sophomore slump he will play every day.
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Signing Harper would give us an every day outfielder. I would like to think Verdugo can become an every day player.
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We need an every day catcher.
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Right now Pederson, CT3, Hernandez, Freese, Kemp and Barnes are not every day players. Not sure what is up with Toles. It remains to be seen if Muncy can sustain his 2018 numbers. If so, he could be an every day player. DH if it comes or 2B/1B if necessary. At most positions bat trumps glove.
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If we want to be the NL powerhouse (we do!) and compete with the AL powerhouses (we do!) we need players who are good enough to play every day. We are out from under the luxury tax this year. I expect moves from the front office that will move us away from using platoons because are starters will be good enough to play every day.
I have a feeling Ryu will be back.
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Maeda and Wood could be traded.
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What could you get for Maeda, Wood, Puig, Pederson and Muncy?
There is no way in hell the DH comes to the NL for 2019! Stop!!!
Alden Gonzalez, ESPN.com:
“I don’t think I’ve ever covered an athlete who feels as genuine and deep a responsibility to live up to a contract as Clayton Kershaw. He expressed that here, when talking about why his extension is 3 years: “My main priority is to sign a deal I can be productive with. I would never want to sign anything that I didn’t think I could live up to. That’s part of the reason for this deal is I really believe that for three years I can be just as good as I have been. I’m not saying I can’t be good past that, but that’s as long as I was willing to commit to right now.””
Interesting. Reports are that the Indians will make their veteran players available, including their starting pitchers. I wouldn’t mind Kluber in Blue.