The Bullpen: Fact Fiction
It has been suggested by some that Craig Kimbrel is the solution to the Dodger s bullpen woes. Just to be sure that I understand it, this is the Craig Kimbrel that Boston (who needed a closer) parted ways with and 28 other teams have passed on? No one wants him for a reason, but the Dodgers should sign him anyway with some silly knee-jerk reaction because he just happens to
It has been suggested by some that Craig Kimbrel is the solution to the Dodger’s bullpen woes. Just to be sure that I understand it, this is the Craig Kimbrel that Boston (who needed a closer) parted ways with and 28 other teams have passed on? No one wants him for a reason, but the Dodgers should sign him anyway with some silly “knee-jerk” reaction because he just happens to be available? Because the Dodgers “know better” than any of them? I think not! Signing Kimbrel smacks of desperation. There’s a reason every team in baseball has passed on him.
It is a fact that he Dodgers bullpen needs to get better – even Ray Charles can see that! But, please: No Dope-Fiend Moves. Currently, the Dodgers pitching staff is 3rd in team ERA, on their way to 2nd. However, they are 21st in bullpen ERA, and of course, we know you can’t win a World Series unless you have the best bullpen in baseball. Right? Well, that would be WRONG. Last year, Boston was 9th in bullpen ERA and in 2017, Houston was 17th, BUT the Bullpen was good when it counted. That happens to be the key.
In the Post-Season of 2018, the Dodgers pen had a 2.78 ERA while the Red Sox had a 2.71 ERA… in an identical number of innings. Was it the bullpen that won the Series? In 2017, the Dodgers bullpen had a 3.39 ERA while the Astros Bullpen ERA was 5.40 in an almost identical number of innings as well. The Cubs won the World Series in 2016 with the 7th best bullpen ERA. So saying we have to have the best bullpen is nonsense!
Your bullpen has to be the most opportunistic! You need to win 3-2 games and 10-9 games. You have to get hot when it counts. Joe Kelly has been very bad this year, but he was great in the World Series. Relief pitchers who were “lights out” in 2017 often got “lit up” in 2018. There is no “exact science” in picking bullpen arms. Joe Blanton and Brandon Morrow were simply the product of “luck” and luck is where preparation meets opportunity.
The last two World Series Champs had something the Dodgers did not have (other than an Ace who was one): They had consistent offensive production and they had clutch hitting. The Dodgers have attempted to address that. This year, their OPS with RISP is better than 50 points higher than last year and they are striking out less. They are also averaging a run a game more than in 2018. That’s progress!
As much as I liked Yasmani Grandal, he was all-or-nothing and Friedman saw no need to keep him for such spotty production. Last March, Yasmani hit .333 and followed that up with.313 in April. Then he proceeded to hit .181 in May, .162 in June, .364 in July and .162 in August. Yet, his highs were higher than Joc’s and Joc’s lows were lower. That is what is maddening to me about Joc.
Joc beats Yasmani in OPS, but this is where I split from analytics. Averages are misleading. Put one foot in ice water and the other in boiling water and “on average” the analytics say you are comfortable when you absolutely are in great pain! I am picking on Joc because he’s easy to pick on, but there are others on the Dodgers whom I can point to as a problem as well. I will list them by their “strikeout percentage:”
- Max Muncy – 31%
- Kike Hernandez – 29%
- Chris Taylor 29%
- David Freese – 28%
Joc strikes out 23% of the time, which is not that bad. The problem I have is that he can’t hit lefties. Oh, occasionally he will get a hit, but there is absolutely no evidence that he will ever master that art. Of all our position players, Joc is the most marketable and I think the Dodgers could parlay him into a couple of arms (maybe a 3 or 4-way deal) for the pen. It has been pointed out that Joc has bad luck with BAIP, but if you look at his hit charts you can see that he either can’t… or won’t hit balls the other way with any frequency.
Of more concern to me than the bullpen is the number of “true outcome players” the Dodgers have in the lineup. I think that has to be addressed. Kike’s strikeouts are WAY UP. Muncy was actually at 33% last year, so he is down a little. It’s still early, and CT3 and Kike are working with RVS and Company daily, trying to “breakthrough” but sometime in June, if this keeps up, you have to look elsewhere.
Even if no trades are made, I believe there are enough “in house” resources to fix the pen, and this is especially true if Joe Kelly can find his magic again. Can he? Will he? That’s a BIG question. Friedman is working the phones as we speak and while I would like to see help for the bullpen, I believe that fewer “true outcome” hitters will help the Dodgers immensely.
Cody Bellinger will play wherever Doc asks him to play, but in his career, he is hitting 100 points higher as a right fielder. What moron would ask him to switch? Having played both positions, I know that you have a “mental break” when you play RF because you are not involved in nearly as many plays. I can only guess, but Cody says he prefers RF over 1B… and maybe he does because of that mental aspect. At any rate, I would not ask him to move unless there is no other choice.
At this juncture, I would rather see Muncy at 2B than Kike. Platoon Freese and Beaty at 1B. I think Beaty is a hitter. Kike and/or CT3 have to sort this out because the Dodgers can’t afford to keep both. It’s not time to panic. There’s lots of time left and the Dodgers are the class of the NL, but Andrew Friedman is plotting… I guarantee it.
Minor League Report by DC
Player of the Day – Gavin Lux
The story of the day again is shortstop Gavin Lux with his second straight four-hit game. His batting average of .329 now trails only teammate Omar Estevez who is hitting .333. He leads the league in runs, home runs, slugging, total bases and OPS.
Great Lakes Loons 4 – Lancaster Lugnuts 9 (Toronto)
Nineteen-year-old Robinson Ortiz made his Loons Debut on Thursday. It was the first time the young left-hander had pitched above the Arizona League. The jump is significant for a just turned 19-year-old
but I expect the Dodgers wanted to get his season started to determine if he stays at that level or gets reassigned to the Ogden Raptors for their June 14th season opener. His first taste of A-ball did not go so well. In two innings and 55 pitches he gave up six hits, two walks and seven earned runs while striking out two. He did pick a runner off first base in Jon Rooney fashion.
Stephen Kolek, who was to piggyback with the 6’0”/180-pound Ortiz, pitched a nice six innings giving up two runs, one earned, on three hits, no walks and three strikeouts.
The Loons did score four runs, a first inning one on a Niko Hulsizer double off the top of the wall scoring Hunter Fuduccia who had walked. Three more runs came across in the top of the ninth on a Niko Hulsizer solo home run and two-run single by Jacob Amaya.
Offensively the Loons have been scorching of late but in the field they are freezing cold having made 15 errors in the four game set with the Lugnuts. The bats carried them to three wins in the series.
Rancho Cucamonga Quakes – Visalia Rawhide (Arizona)
The Quakes double-header With Visalia was rained out making two straight rain out days in Rancho Cucamonga.
Tulsa Drillers 8 – Northwest Arkansas Naturals 3 (Kansas City)
J.D. Martin started for the Drillers and matched his previous high of seven innings giving up a lone run on four hits, one walk while striking out five. Yordy Cabrera finished up the final two innings allowing two additional runs by the Naturals.
Offensively the Drillers scored early and often.
- Jared Walker solo home run in the second inning.
- Angelo Mora triple in the third inning
- Chris Parmalee SF in the third inning
- Zach mcKinstry two-run double in the fourth inning
- Angelo Mora two-run single in the fourth inning
- GavinLux solo home run in the sixth inning
Lux (4), McKinstry (2) and Mora (3) all had multiple hit games.
OKC Dodgers 4 – New Orleans Cakes 12 (Miami)
The Dodgers pitching woes continue. Starter Dennis Santana gave up seven runs, five earned, in five innings. Louis Head matched Santana with five earned runs in two innings Joe Broussard did strand the two runners he inherited while Josh Sborz had a clean inning.
The Dodgers had seven hits, three by Will Smith and two by Daniel Castro.
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Discussion (78)
Disagree, not disagreeable
To me the disappointment is the trades for Pollock and Kelly who are showing that they are just what they were before (injury prone and not good) except Pollock was worse than before as a hitter. Relievers are all spotty and its hard to say who will come thru and when. Minor injuries are worked with and sometimes bite you. Wasn’t that Madsens issue last year at the end? Otherwise its the race to the bottom for the right handed hitters -Kike-Freese-Taylor. Which will be batting under .200 first.?
The Mets need outfielders and probably would like to add a starter to their rotation. Maybe there is a third team that the Mets and Dodgers could get with that would give the Dodgers Diaz and the Mets an outfielder and starter.
Stripling, and Floro to the Mets.
Muncy to a third team that would in turn send an outfielder to the Mets.
Or, for those that say Muncy can play LF, a third team is not needed.
Watch Felipe Rivero this weekend.
He would look good in Dodger Blue for the next few years.
Kimbrel isn’t on the shelf because he sucks. He’s on the shelf because he’s asking for too much money and too long of a contract. I agree that we should not cave to his demands. But, if you can get him to come on a shorter deal to setup for Kenley, it’s a no brainer. But, that isn’t going to happen, IMO. He might take a shorter deal, but he isn’t going to be happy pitching the 8th.
Regarding Bellinger hitting better as a RF…Last year the argument was that he hit better as a first baseman than as a CF. This year, he’s on an absolute tear playing most of his games in RF. But, he’s actually better as a first baseman this year. This argument is poppycock. You put him where the TEAM is best.
At the end of the year, you’re probably right about Joc. It seems like he’s slow to adjust. I remember a few years back he seemed to change his batting stance every other game. On the other hand, he just turned 27, so there’s still hope he can improve. He’s got a good eye at the plate and great power. His on base skills are very good, even better considering his low BA. There is something untapped in there. Maybe you know something we don’t. You talk to insiders and I don’t. But, from where I’m sitting, and from the stats I’m reading, the Kike/Pederson platoon is hard to beat. Statistically, the Freese/Beaty platoon at first base is much less productive than a Kike/Pederson platoon in left.
It’s easy to see that the pen in the weak link. The rotation has been top notch and we’re leading the league in runs scored which is the main goal for any offense. The bullpen has been pretty bad, if you check your own site there was a good write-up about this and inherited runs scored recently. I still maintain that the inherited runs scored is inflated by Doc’s propensity to make pitching changes with runners on. Bring in a cold pitcher and take him out after he warms up then brings in another cold pitcher. Maybe he wouldn’t do this so much if he had better options. Either way, the pen is the most glaring need. Unfortunately, pen arms are inconsistent, volatile and hard to predict future success. But, that doesn’t excuse AF from improving their biggest area of need.
“Friedman is plotting”
What about adding a RH slugging 1B and moving Muncy to 2B?
Update above: Minor league Report.
Will Smith and Gavin Lux are knocking on the door and using their bats to make it a loud knock.
If I were to trade for a reliever it would include Muncy who is still cheap and controllable. But if the Dodgers trade for a reliever it should be for an Ace reliever like Diaz, now with the Mets.
I would rather exchange money for Kimbrel than prospects for a trade candidate. It’s that simple for me.