The Bullpen Conundrum
Hindsight is 20/20 Vision is Rare Foresight is often just luck After last night s bullpen meltdown, everyone is calling for the Dodgers to trade for an entirely new bullpen and gut the farm system to get Will Smith, Brad Hand, Filipe Vazquez, and Jose Leclerc for starters. I will tell you right now that the odds of getting two of those relievers are none and getting one is slim. So,
Hindsight is 20/20
Vision is Rare
Foresight is often just luck
After last night’s bullpen meltdown, everyone is calling for the Dodgers to trade for an entirely new bullpen and gut the farm system to get Will Smith, Brad Hand, Filipe Vazquez, and Jose Leclerc… for starters. I will tell you right now that the odds of getting two of those relievers are none and getting one is slim. So, the odds are “slim and none.”
Pitching, whether it be starting or relief is problematic and hardly predictable. I can show you ten examples of where a key trade was made for a rotation or bullpen arm and the results were a disaster, but you can show me ten more examples where the results were great. That’s hindsight… even Ray Charles can see that.
When Houston acquired Justin Verlander at the waiver deadline in 2017, who knew that he would simply resurrect his career that appeared headed down the toilet? As Verlander hit his early 30’s he was “up and down” and in 2014 he put up a 4.64 ERA. In 2017, he had a 3.82 ERA with Detroit at the time of the trade, but after he came to Houston, his ERA was 1.06! Did anyone really think he would do that? Was it foresight or just dumb luck?
In 13 years with Detroit, Justin Verlander had a 3.49 ERA. With Houston, his ERA is 2.40 and he’s 36 years old. His WHIP with Detroit was 1.146, with the Astros it is 0.829! How can you see that coming? We might have a clue: the Astros allegedly have the best pitching analytics in baseball and Justin is now pitching to his strengths as well as hitters’ weaknesses. Was it just the system and coaching?
Remember Jim Johnson from 2015? “Yeah, Friedman was an idiot for trading for him!” Hindsight! It’s 20/20. I would submit to you that there was more evidence Jim Johnson would be a good reliever for the Dodgers that there was evidence that Justin Verlander would be Superman. From 2011 to 2013, Jim Johnson put us three straight years of sub 3.00 ERA pitching in Camden Yards (the best hitters park in baseball) and had back-to-back years with 50+ saves.
In 2014, like many relievers tend to do, he struggled, but in 2015, he put up a 2.25 ERA for Atlanta (another launching pad). The expectation was that he would be a solid piece for the Dodgers and that was a reasonable expectation. Well, we all know he as a disaster as he put up a 10.13 ERA for the Blue. However, the very next year, he went back to Atlanta and posted a 3.06 ERA over 65 innings. Go figure!
If Andrew Friedman trades for a bullpen arm RIGHT HERE RIGHT NOW, he is going to pay an unconscionable premium. That is guaranteed. If you are buying in a seller’s market, you will overpay and overpay dearly. Cleveland will trade Brad Hand, if AF made them an offer they can’t refuse. Verdugo, Ruiz, and May would get the job done. Now, if Cleveland drops out of contention at the trade deadline, the price will be much more palatable.
Andrew Friedman may not always get the right guy… and the “Can’t Play in the Bright Lights of LA Factor” is something to consider, but I will guarantee this: He won’t make a dope-fiend move. I am pretty sure Sborz and Chargois have tickets back to OKC already. More internal options will be explored: Gonsolin? Maybe. Kasowski? Possibly! Remember that in another few weeks Julio Urias will pitch 5 to 7 innings as they slowly ramp him up. That also changes everything.
Rich Hill will also be back from a flexor tendon strain, which is not related to the UCL. However, maybe less stress on his arm would be good. He has volunteered to pitch in relief before. Could we see him in the pen? I think he is fully capable of re-inventing himself as a relief specialist. He will likely be back in 4 or 5 weeks.
Parting Shot
What Andrew Friedman is doing by stockpiling and growing the farm system will keep the Dodgers in the hunt for a World Series for many years to come. The Dodgers have been to the last two World Series … and lost! However, you can’t win if you don’t get there. Some of it is just pure, blind luck and having the stars align. The Dodgers are due for some of that and it all starts by just getting there.
Minor League Report by DC
Seven minor league starters pitched 33.2 innings giving up only 7 runs.
DSL Dodgers Bautista 2- DSL Marlins 3
Left-hander Christian Suarez started and pitched 5 scoreless innings on 4 hits with no walks and 5 strikeouts. In his 15 innings pitched in 2019 he has posted a 0.60 ERA and 0.73 WHIP with 14 strikeouts and 2 walks. Duany Gomez gave up all three runs in his 2 innings pitched while Axel Acevedo had 2 scoreless innings.
The Dodgers had only 4 hits with catcher Jenderson Jardines’ double the only extra base hit.
DSL Dodgers Shoemaker 3 – DSL Red Sox (2) 6
Seventeen-year-old Carlos Duran continued his hot start with 3 scoreless innings on 2 hits and 5 strikeouts. In his 16 innings this year he has a 0.56 ERA and a 0.81 WHIP with 7 walks and 18 strikeouts. Samuel Reuben pitched 2 scoreless innings while Jose Mendez and Juan De La Cruz gave up 3 runs between them. Isaac Rodriguez took the loss with 3 runs in the bottom of the ninth inning.
The Dodgers had only 4 hits, 2 by catcher Nelson Quiroz.
AZL Dodgers Mota and Lasorda were not scheduled.
Ogden Raptors 8 – Orem Owlz 11 (LAA)
Jeronimo Castro followed the pattern for the night with Dodger minor league starters and pitched 4.2 innings giving up 2 runs on 4 hits with 2 strikeouts. Ricardo Hernandez followed Castro and had perhaps the worst outing of his career giving up 5 earned runs while getting only 2 outs in the 5th inning. Hunter Speer, Darien Nunez and Reza Aleaziz pitched the last 4.1 innings giving up 4 more runs with only Nunez escaping with no runs.
Offensively the Raptors scored in all the even innings with one in the 2nd, 4 in the 4th, one in the 6th and 2 in the 8th but 8 wasn’t enough. Catcher Marco Hernandez had 3 hits and 2 RBI while Justin Yurchuk also knocked in 2 with 2 hits and Sam McWilliams had 2 hits.
Great Lakes Loons 0 – Fort Wayne TinCaps 6 (San Diego)
Niko Hulsizer got the call to the Quakes after the all-star game.
Left-hander John Rooney started for the Loons and extended his scoreless streak to 21.2 innings over 4 starts. In 5 innings he gave up only 2 hits, walked 2 and struck out 5. Rooney’s work was matched by TinCaps starter Joey Cantillo and going into the top of the ninth inning the teams were locked in a scoreless tie. Jose Chacin followed Rooney with a scoreless inning and Mark Washington continued with 2 scoreless frames. Things fell apart in the ninth as Nathan Witt gave up four runs before recording an out. Jasiel Alvino couldn’t stop the bleeding as the TcCaps scored two more for a 6-run inning.
At the plate the Loons had only three singles.
Rancho Cucamonga Quakes 6 – Lancaster JetHawks 7 (Colorado)
Austin Hamilton started and went 4 innings giving up 3 runs while striking out 6. Sven Schueller and Connor Mitchell followed up with 4 scoreless innings. Connor Strain came on in the bottom of the 9th with a 6-3 lead. He left with an injury before throwing a pitch. Max Gamboa perhaps didn’t have sufficient time to warm up replacing Strain. In any event, when he walked off the mound the JetHawks came away with a 7-6 win , the last two runs scoring on wild pitches.
The Quakes struck first in the top of the 1st inning with a Jeren Kendall lead off triple and a Donovan Casey home run. They scored again in the top of the 4th inning to tie the game at three. Niko Hulsizer got his first A+ hit, a single scoring Connor Wong. Kendall tripled again in the 5th to drive in a run and scored on a Devin Mann double. A Marcus Chiu home run sent the game to the bottom of the ninth with the Quakes up 6-3.
Tulsa Drillers 2 – Amarillo Sod Poodles 1 (San Diego)
Drew Avans got promoted from the Quakes to the Drillers.
Edwin Uceta got the call for Tulsa and answered the call with 7 scoreless innings with 3 hits, no walks and 7 strikeouts. Andre Scrubb came on in the 8th inning and served up a home run to pinch hitter Peter Van Gansen to tie the score at one. He set the side down in order in the 9th inning.
Locked in a tight pitching duel, the Drillers scored first in the bottom of the third inning on a Cody Thomas double. Driving in Zach McKinstry who had reached on an error. Tied at one in the bottom of the 9th inning, Gavin Lux came through with a walk-off single scoring Christian Santana who started the inning with a HBP. Carlos Rincon’s ninth-inning single extended his hitting streak to 12 straight games, the longest this season for a Tulsa hitter. Santana, Thomas and McKinstry each had doubles in the game. Oddly, it was the 11th double of the season for all three.
OKC Dodgers 5 – Memphis Redbirds 3 (St. Louis)
Tony Gonsolin got the start and pitched 5 innings with 2 runs, 1 walk and 9 strikeouts. Justin Grimm, Adam McCreery and Shea Spitzbarth combined for two innings with no runs although Spitzbarth had to strand two runners put on by McCreery walks. Spitzbarth then gave up a run in the top of the 8th drawing the Redbirds to within one run of the Dodgers. Kevin Quackenbush claimed the save with a clean 9th inning. The 14 strikeouts by Dodgers pitchers Thursday marked the eighth time this season OKC’s pitching staff recorded 14 or more strikeouts in a game.
Offensively Gonsolin helped his own cause with a RBI single in the bottom of the 3rd inning. They scored again in the 5th on a Connor Joe ground out and added two more in the 6th on a 2-run home run by Edwin Rios. Shane Peterson provided an insurance run with a home run in the bottom of the 8th inning to restore a 2-run lead.
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Discussion (48)
Disagree, not disagreeable
The fact is we don’t have a single bullpen guy who can consistently come in and shut down an inning including Jansen. If we want to win a championship this year we need another closer especially if Jansen can’t turn it around. It doesn’t look like Kenley is the same pitcher. He’s throwing 2-3 mph slower with less movement and less control. Not a good sign. Swing and miss stuff is critical for closers and he is far from that right now. I understand relievers are the most inconsistent baseball player positions and that’s why we have to get a proven top of the line guy. Again I reference the Cubs in 16 with Chapman. I say we have to make this move and if it costs us one of our top 3 prospects and another top 10 guy then that’s the price you have to pay to win THIS year. AF has made the big moves before at the deadline to get the best available players but the question is will he do it for a bullpen guy which goes against his nature. We’ll see!
Norcal, I’m glad you acknowledged Garlick. I’m really stoked to see him doing so well. Nice slash line in the early going….350/.409/.750/1.159 SSS qualifier. I think he just might be more than a 4th outfielder. He might just be our Brian Giles!
I would gladly trade K Bear for Hand and Cimber right now. That trade would be equal to what the Indians gave up for Hand and Cimber last year. I don’t consider that a King’s ransom. With a 10 game lead in the division and the best record in baseball with Seager and Pollock and now Hill on the DL, I think we have the option to remain patient. No need to panic.
Right now it just seems KJ doesn’t have “swing and miss stuff.” All three outs last night were balls hit to the outfield and thank goodness the Dodger brass had Verdugo and Garlick positioned correctly or else we would be discussing a blown save. Verdugo had a nice jump on the Posey hit to the outfield and off the bat I thought Belt’s batted ball was a base hit down the line (Garlick looks good as a defensive outfielder).
Chargois looked good with a lot of movement on his pitches and Sborz looked good the first inning but the second….well that’s a different story. Leadoff BBs are a killer.
Stripling looked pedestrian. This team needs Kelly to find his groove because teams are going to want a “kings ransom” for RP and I’m so torn to see AF trade guys like Ruiz, May, White for a RP that might not perform any better than what we have. I sure hope he can “fleece” someone into getting some talent where we catch “lightning in a bottle”and don’t give up too much.
I don’t mind them “fooling with” Chargois, Sborz and the likes. But, I would hardly call Ferguson “fooling with”. He’s 22 years old and has had a lot of success so far. He’s a keeper and is death on lefties. But, the point is you gotta know what you have and you have to give guys auditions so teams can see who they’re trading for. Sborz looked pretty good before he came in for that second inning. Same with Chargois. Either of them can be included in a trade for a better a more established reliever.
There will be many relievers available at the deadline. Some will be elite. Smith and Greene are closers on expiring contracts. Colome and Hand may become available for the right price. I’m pretty confident that we will get another arm that can close games. It’s our biggest need and Friedman always comes through at the deadline.
Let the pitching auditions begin! We’ve been through this before, last season. A continuous run-through of our farm hands and arms and the acquired losers like Rosscup, Axford, etc. So far, it is only our farm that we are drawing from and that’s okay. We get to see who is there and what they have. But, they haven’t drawn on the cream of the crop, yet. They are still fooling with Ferguson, Chargois, and Sborz. We’ll probably be seeing Santana, Schulz, and Alvarez, and maybe McCreery. Fine with me. I’m not going to say that any of those players don’t have what it takes because they all have some talent, but the difficulty is mining it and producing it when your name is called. The only guy who has produced at some time is Ferguson and that’s why we have seen him pop in and out of the BP. But seemingly, he is not our answer. Who is? I don’t know. Aside from the names of Gonsolin and May who are not on our 40 man roster and may not be this season, I wonder who else we will see. AC? DC? Mark? Any secrets to be revealed? What might we expect from our farm?