The Bullpen Conundrum Response

Mark and I don’t always agree on everything Blue, although I think we are pretty consistent from a Macro view. But when it comes to the bullpen, Mark and I just do not see eye to eye. I have been a relief pitcher wonk since 1959 and Larry Sherry. Clem Labine would have been my favorite Dodger in the mid 50’s. I am not going to go through the history of LAD relief pitchers, but suffice to say, most have been on my short list as favorite Dodgers. So after yesterday’s post, I needed to make another of my counterpoints.

I believe if you have a lead after 7 you should not lose. You should have a bullpen that shuts down the opposition. If you do not have two elite late inning relievers, then you need to get them. Gone are the days of Ron Perranoski, Mike Marshall, or Charlie Hough who could do it themselves. Now teams need two elite late inning high leverage relievers to complete a dominant bullpen.

IMO the Dodgers do not have a dominant bullpen. Their closer is no longer dominant. KJ has not been dominant since he surrendered a game tying HR to Marwin Gonzalez in the 9th inning of Game 2 in the 2017 WS. That HR was the turning point in the entire 2017 WS. The 9th was Jansen’s 2nd inning in that game. Doc was looking for a 6 out save that did not come. After Bregman opened the 8th with a ground rule double off Brandon Morrow, Jansen came in with a 2-run lead and a runner on 2nd. He allowed a single to Carlos Correa allowing the Astros to creep within 1, but got out of the 8th without any further damage. Marwin Gonzalez then led off the 9th with the tying HR on an 0-2 pitch, and the Astros went on to win the game and the WS. Why was Jansen asked to get a 6 out save? Because the Dodgers did not have a deep bullpen.

I know that Doc deserves some of the blame, because he pulled Rich Hill after only 60 pitches in 4 innings. What little bullpen the Dodgers had was used up. It sure would have been nice to see Hill go 6 and then Maeda and Watson in the 7th, and then Morrow in the 8th and KJ in the 9th. Brandon McCarthy would never have been needed.

But both the 2017 and 2018 WS are in the rearview mirror, and we are looking for that elusive championship this year. So is Jansen, Baez, Kelly, Alexander, Garcia, Stripling, Maeda, and Floro a WS caliber bullpen? Not in my opinion. I did not include Urias, because as of right now, I would pencil him in as the #4 starter as long as Hill is on the mend. If Hill comes back as most of us believe he will, then someone will be excluded. With KJ blowing a save against the Cubs on 06/15, and then nearly blowing a save the next two games he pitched, I no longer see him as a dominant closer. After blowing that save (his third blown save), many said that we cannot expect a closer to close them all. Kirby Yates (26-0), Brad Hand (20-0), Will Smith(19-0), Alex Colome (15-0) have been perfect, with Felipe Vazquez (17-1) and Shane Greene (21-1) nearly perfect in save opportunities.

Every one of those pitchers were either traded to their current teams or they were picked up off waivers (Yates from LAA). They did not come from within the organization.

Three trade deadline deals – Brad Hand (with Adam Cimber) from SD to Cleveland for Francisco Mejia (C), Will Smith from Milwaukee to SFG for Phil Bickford (P) and Andrew Susac (C), Felipe Vazquez (and Taylor Hearn) from Nationals to Pittsburgh for Mark Melancon. And two were from Winter trades – In a three-team trade, Shane Greene from Yankees to Detroit, with Robbie Ray (Det) and Domingo Leyba (Det) to Arizona, and Didi Gregorius (AZ) to NYY. So while Mark can say that pitching is unpredictable (and I do not disagree), these teams took the chance to make the trade, and now they have the 5 best closers in baseball. They did not worry about what the players they traded may do for the other team, only what the player they got can do to help them win.

To think that Brad Hand will cost Verdugo, Ruiz, and May is nonsense. He may cost Ruiz and another top 30 prospect (Peters?), but not an everyday CF, and two top three prospects. Smith is rental, while all of the others have at least this year and next under control.

It is probable that Smith and Green will be moved this trade deadline. It is possible that Hand and Colome could be moved depending on where their teams stand at the trade deadline. I have read rumors that Yates could be traded, but I just do not see it. The least likely will be Vazquez. Vazquez (27) is team controlled through 2023.

There will be multiple relievers, some of them even good, who will be traded at the deadline. Why? Because most of the successful GMs believe in elite relievers. Right Brian Cashman, Jeff Luhnow, and Jed Hoyer? Hoyer and the Cubs have already picked up Craig Kimbrel and it only cost $$$. Epstein and Hoyer say they are still looking for more relievers, as is Luhnow. Cashman needs starting pitching, but he knows that his relievers will be ready to go come playoffs, including Dellin Betances (who should return in August) and a quickly improving Chad Green.

I know that Sean Doolittle, Blake Treinen, and Lou Trivino are having off years, but I would be happy with any of them. This year, I might be happier with Liam Hendricks also with Oakland. In order to improve, you sometimes need to take that proverbial chance, which is why Ken Giles would be way up my watch list. There are no guarantees. Take the chance on players who have been there before. I think most fans were happy with AF and the Machado, Darvish, and Hill trades. But even Tony Watson and Tony Cingrani were big question marks, especially Cingrani.

I am not naïve. I agree there is very little chance that the Dodgers will trade for two elite relievers. But if they do not get one, then I will once again question AF’s valuation of relievers. Another myth I want to disspell is that if you disagree with AF then you obviously consider him the anti-Christ. Nothing could be further from the truth. It is easy to always be right when everyone agrees with you. I do not want “yes men” working with me. I assume that AF is the same way. Because I disagree with his valuation of relievers does not make me anti AF. It also does not make me right.

Mark may point that it is perhaps Houston’s pitching gurus that make the pitchers dominant. Or maybe it is the pitchers themselves. Regardless if it is the talent or the coaching, AF is responsible for both. Go out and get elite relievers or hire better pitching coaches. Either scenario is in the hands of AF.

The one glaring weakness on this team is the bullpen. AF needs to try and bridge that weakness. Will he be able to with a trade for an elite reliever or will he try to stay within the organization. I think Mark would prefer to let the team stay status quo with trying someone like Tony Gonsolin. Me, in the playoffs, I want a proven reliever that will deliver, not a prospect. Next year considering that both Hill and Ryu may leave, that would leave the 5 man rotation in the hands of Kershaw, Buehler, Urias, Maeda, and Stripling. I hope the Dodgers strongly consider Ryu for a 2-3 year contract. Ryu is comfortable in a Dodgers uniform. Maybe Tony Gonsolin or Dennis Santana or Mitchell White will be ready to try to claim the #4/#5 spot in the rotation. But after those two, come Dustin May, Edwin Uceta, Michael Grove, Josiah Gray, John Rooney, and Robinson Ortiz. There are several others who may develop (Braydon Fisher, Gerardo Carrillo, Zach Willeman…). They cannot all make the Dodgers rotation. Make out your untouchable list and then work to get the best deal with one or two of the others. For me, Tony Gonsolin (AAA), Dustin May (AA), and Josiah Gray (A+) are the untouchable pitchers. Gavin Lux is the untouchable position player. If the Dodgers did not have both Will Smith and Keibert Ruiz, they would be untouchable. But since they have both, one of them could be traded in the right scenario.

Anyone who follows the minor leagues as closely and as much as I do will have a hard time trading personal favorites. But if it improves the ML team, I am in favor of spending the necessary player capital to get the top bullpen pieces. I know that they all cannot and/or will not make the Dodgers ML roster. The organization has a lot of teams because most of the MiLB players are blocked. They have two DSL and two AZL teams, and a lot more in extended ST that continue to be held back. Any trade of prospects will be met with animosity by some. That is a given.

So will AF spend the capital to improve the bullpen with proven elite relievers, or will he punt and stay within the organization and try to find lightning in a bottle?

MINOR LEAGUE REPORT by AC

OKC Dodgers 7 – Memphis Redbirds 14 (Cardinals)

Five pitchers took the mound for the Dodgers, and not one got the job done. Starting pitcher, Brock Steward, and Shea Spitzbarth were tagged the hardest. The five-some allowed 14 runs on 18 hits, and 5 HR’s, three by Spitzbarth in 0.2 IP.

When you score 7 runs, you should win most of the time. The Dodgers scored 7 runs on 11 hits with only 2 XBH, both provided by Will D. Smith. Smith slugged his 14th HR and collected his 11th double. Connor Joe had three hits, while Zach Reks, the aforementioned Will D. Smith, and Cameron Perkins each had 2 hits.

Tulsa Drillers 3 – Amarillo Sod Poodles 4 (Padres)

There was not much action in this game. The Drillers pushed across 3 runs on 4 singles and a Chris Parmalee HR (9). Gavin Lux still remains atop the league leaders in several offensive categories. Isn’t it time for him to get a taste of AAA? (Side Editorial).

The pitching was not the problem that it was in AAA, although the four pitchers did cough up 3 gopher balls. Victor Gonzalez started and pitched relatively well for 5.0 innings. He allowed 2 runs on 5 hits and 1 walk, with 4 Ks, and one of the three HRs. Michael Boyle and Ryan Moseley pitched the next 3.0 innings each allowing a solo HR, while Edward Paredes pitched a clean 9th.

RC Quakes 7 – Lancaster JetHawks 13 (Colorado)

This game started bad in the 2nd inning and went downhill from there. In the bottom of the 2nd, starter Michael Grove continued his struggles. He allowed a lead off HR, followed by a single, WP, strikeout, single, double, walk single, walk, strikeout before his night came to an end. Austin Drury came on in relief and walked the first batter he faced to give the JetHawks their 5 runs. Grove’s ERA is now up to 8.10.

The Quakes got three back in the 3rd thanks largely to a Donovan Casey HR (the first of 2 on the night). Casey now has 11 on the campaign. But the JetHawks scored 4 more in the 4th to open up a 6-run lead 9-3. Often times in Lancaster, a 6-run lead may not be enough, but it was last night. The JetHawks scored three unearned runs off Drury in 2.0 IP, and Will Montgomery finished the final 4.1 surrendering the final 5 runs.

Besides Casey’s two HRs, Devin Mann went 3-4 including his 13th HR and 2 doubles (15).

Great Lakes Loons 6 – Fort Wayne TinCaps 3 (Padres)

The Loons used two pitchers in their win. Stephen Kolek started and went 5.0 innings allowing 3 runs on 4 hits 2 walks, and 2 strikeouts for his 5th win. Justin Hagenman pitched the final 4.0 innings in scoreless fashion, allowing only 2 hits and 1 walk to go with his 4 Ks. In 16 games and 37 IP, Hagenman now sports a 1.95 ERA, 0.95 WHIP, a .180 BAA, and only 1 HR. But he is 22 in an A league and needs to move up to stiffer competition at RC before we can determine of Justin is a legit relief prospect.

After three innings, the Loons found themselves down by 3. In prior years, that may have triggered a loss, but not this year. The Loons scored 1 in the 3rd to come within 2, and then scored a big 4 runs in the 4th to take the lead. Dillon Paulson (USC) and Jair Camargo started the inning with singles. Luke Heyer doubled to bring home Paulson, followed by a James Outman single that scored Camargo. An errant pick off throw scored Heyer, and Leonel Valera singled to plate Outman for the 4th run. The Loons scored another in the 5th for the 6-3 lead they never relinquished.

The Loons had 11 hits including three doubles; Outman (6), Heyer (5) and Camargo (10). Paulson, Camargo, and Outman had 2 this apiece. The only Loon without a hit was recently promoted (06/19) Josh McLain.

Ogden Raptors 11 – Orem Owlz 6 (LAA)

The Raptors scored 11 runs without the benefit of an XBH. The used 13 hits and 7 walks to score their 11 runs. Sam McWilliams and Andrew Shaps led the singles parade with 3 each, while Zac Ching and Ramon Rodriguez had 2. Leadoff hitter, Jeremy Arocho, had three walks.

Elio Serrano (3.1 IP), Melvin Jimenez (1.2 IP), and Nelfri Contreras (1.2 IP) surrendered the 6 runs on 13 hits and 3 walks. Only 20-year-old RHP Edward Cuello (2.1 IP) pitched effectively. Cuello only allowed a walk in his evening’s work and got his first save as a reward. It is hard to put up good pitching numbers in the Pioneer League, which is more of a launching pad than is the California League.

AZL Dodgers Mota 7 – AZL Indians Red 6

I generally follow the AA team because of Gavin Lux, Omar Estevez, et al. because of all the potential ML talent on the Drillers’ roster. But last night I was more interested in a Rookie League game. Two of the three biggest prizes in last year’s international group, catcher Diego Cartaya and SS Alex De Jesus made their US debuts, and DID NOT DISAPPOINT. Both players went 2-3 with De Jesus getting his first double and first HR. Cartaya also picked off a runner at 2B to top off his debut. Ismael Alcantara also had 2 hits, while Kevin Aponte hit his 1st HR.

Yaisel Sierra continued his rehab assignment and started, pitching a perfect 1.0 inning. Michael was the most effective of the next three Mota pitchers and got the win. He did go 4.1 innings, allowing 2 runs on 2 hits and 3 walks. He did register 8 Ks. Carlos Alejo finished the final 1.2 innings and got his 1st save.

AZL Dodgers Lasorda 5 – AZL Brewers Gold 6

This AZL team did not fare as well as the Motas. The Lasordas strung together 11 singles to go with 6 walks for their 5 runs. They did strike out 16 times and hit 2-14 WRISP. Edwin Mateo, Aldo Espinoza, Yhostin Chirinos, and Julio Carrion each had 2 hits.

Logan Bawcom started in his rehab outing and went the first 5.0 innings. 2 runs on 5 hits, 0 walks, and 8 strikeouts was Bawcom’s pitching line. Jose Rodulfo finished up but allowed 2 runs in the bottom of the 8th to give the Brewers the victory.

DSL Dodgers Bautista 11 – DSL Marlins 4

The Bautistas unleased a 16 hit attack. Every Bautista batter had at least 1 hit with 6 batters having 2. Kiumel Bastardo went 2-3 and is now batting .429. Jose Ramos went 2-5 with his 2nd HR. Luis Yan went 2-6 with 3 RBIs. Luis Morales went 2-5 with 2 doubles (3), Carlos Santiago went 2-6 with his 3rd HR. And Alejandro Fernandez went 2-5 with his 1st double. Four pitchers went to the mound with Andrew Budier going 2.1 innings in relief and picking up the win. Abel Moya started and pitched 4.0 allowing all 4 runs (3 earned). Hendrick Briones and Raidel Chacon pitched the final 1.2 scoreless innings.

DSL Dodgers Shoemaker 8 – DSL Red Sox 1

The Shoemakers scored 8 runs on 5 hits and 8 walks. Vladimir Perez did hit his 3rd double. Five pitchers went to the bump for the Shoemakers with Eli Moron going 3.2 scoreless innings. He allowed 1 hit and 1 walk to go with 3 Ks. Moron is now 3-0 with a 1.98 ERA in 13.2 IP.