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LA Dodger Talk

The Best is Yet to Come

2018 has been a season full of challenges and in no small part, the challenges were created initially by the decision the Dodgers made (and still denied by them) to not exceed the Luxury Tax Threshold ( LTT ). Many fans don t agree with the decision, but on every level, except my RFL ( Rabid Fan Level ), I agree with it. I actually thought they would get below it in 2017, but it

By Mark Timmons3 min readJump to 91 comments

2018 has been a season full of challenges and in no small part, the challenges were created initially by the decision the Dodgers made (and still denied by them) to not exceed the Luxury Tax Threshold (“LTT”).  Many fans don’t agree with the decision, but on every level, except my RFL (“Rabid Fan Level”), I agree with it.  I actually thought they would get below it in 2017, but it happened a year later than I expected.  And… here we are.  The Dodgers righted the ship after early struggles and even injuries to the pitching staff didn’t slow them down… until Kenley Jansen went on the DL.

Since that happened, the Dodgers’ bullpen has been saddled with three straight losses and and everyone is losing their minds because FAZ should have saw this coming and signed certain other unnamed relievers.  Some say that FAZ “doesn’t value relievers,” which is preposterous.  They valued Kenley Jansen and opened the vault for him. They just won’t overpay a reliever knowing full well that many are tremendously inconsistent.  There may be  an inverse correlation between what relievers are paid and their actual value.  Some of the best bullpens in recent times have been built without large expenditures.

The Dodgers bullpen has not been good and it is now overexposed without Kenley Jansen, but they have had their moments. All we know is that Jansen will be out until at least next Monday, when he will be re-examined by a cardiologist.  The pennant could be lost in that period, but I doubt it – help is on the way, in the form of Alex Wood, Hyun-Jin Ryu and Julio Urias. Wood and Ryu will be back this week, and by Wednesday, the bullpen will look vastly different.  I have been saying that this team is built for the playoffs and I still believe that – I also know that they have to get there first!

Losing Kenley Jansen was a shock and maybe the only player the Dodgers could not replace, but I saw something the past two days with John Axford that gave me pause.  He’s worth watching and I was surprised to see him almost hit triple digits… with a lot of movement. He has closers experience and maybe Honeycutt helped him find a few MPH and movement. I am not predicting Axford will be the closer, but after a horrid first game, he has literally been Light’s Out and Eye-Popping! Stranger things have happened.

At any rate, Kenta Maeda and Ross Stripling are headed to the bullpen as Wood and Ryu move back into the rotation.  There will likely be some bumps in the road as they get their mojo back. Moving Maeda and Stripling will immediately help, but this will be a process.  Machado and Kemp have been ice cold.  That will change, just like Pederson, Bellinger and Muncy heated up.  Kenley will likely be back and so will Julio Urias.  This is a team built for the Post-Season.

Starters:

  1. Kershaw
  2. Buehler
  3. Hill
  4. Ryu

Bullpen:

  1. Ferguson
  2. Urias
  3. Axford
  4. Floro
  5. Alexander
  6. Wood
  7. Maeda
  8. Stripling
  9. Jansen

The Dodgers may or may not carry 13 pitchers in the Post-Season, but Baez, Vinditte, Chargois, Fileds, Cingrani, Rosscup, Liberatore and others likely won’t be a part of it.

My prediction is that the Dodgers will hang on and win the division in Sepetember – they could even be a few games behind by then, but Machado, Dozier, Kemp, Turner, Puig, Bellinger and Company will get it together.  It might be a bumpy ride – hide all sharp objects and stay out of high buildings.  The sky is not falling and it will be OK.  By the playoffs, the bullpen will be a Dodger strength.

By the way, there are two chances the Dodgers will DFA Matt Kemp: None and Never!  The guy is in a slump, but his OPS is still .808 and he is hitting .283 with 17 HR and 66 RBI.  Two on the NL’s best hitters went through even worse slumps.  Matt Carpenter and Paul Goldschmidt were even worse for a lot longer… until they figured it out.  I am sure that IF he were injured the Dodgers would give him a rest.  If not, he will be fine.

I do know this:  Dozier and Machado and Turner and Puig and Bellinger should only sit if they are tired.  Forget the matchups.  The good ones figure it out! Right about now, the key word is Don’t Panic!

Discussion (91)

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  1. norcaldodgerfanAugust 14, 2018

    CT3 1-4 with 3 K’s. Sit him down and use Verdugo. Leads the NL in K’s.

  2. dodgerrickAugust 14, 2018

    Taylor and Machado look lost out there. Turner looks great at the plate and in the field.

  3. peterjAugust 14, 2018

    We’re looking at vintage Kersh… Puping the fist like Tiger this weekend…hBum not too shabby either… It doesn’t get any better than this…

  4. HawkeyedodgerAugust 14, 2018

    Only the Dodgers need to pinch hit for their cleanup hitter.

  5. BobbyAugust 14, 2018

    People have posted a lot of interesting facts and stats the last few days re. our variety of struggles. All are true. All are disconcerting. All are quite opposite of how we were playing last year (aside from that crazy 17 of 18 losses stretch).

    Here is another fact: if we hold on and win today, we’re tied for first. I”m not trying to sound like an ass. Just pointing out that we’re lucky that there’s no great team in the NL this season. So let’s use that to our advantage. Be 1 game better than AZ the rest of the way and we get to win the division again and get to the dance. We have plenty of time to wake up from this funk and be ready for October.

    Last season, 104 wins and a SI cover asking “Best Team Ever?” didn’t cut it. So maybe we do it a different way. The Giants won 92, 94, and 88 (wild card) during their 3 titles. If they can win it, so can we.

    Now let’s finish this game off today

  6. Mark TimmonsAugust 14, 2018

    Austin “Freaking” Barnes: You can’t stop him – you can only hope to contain him.

    Clayton Kershaw thinks he is a “Freaking Gazelle.”

  7. Mark TimmonsAugust 14, 2018

    Also, for what it is worth:

    It would not hurt the Dodgers to DFA some players on the 40-Man and call up Manny soon:

    Venditte (he never pitches in the majors)

    Segedin (agree)

    Rosscup (just sayin’)

    Liberatore (what?)

  8. Always CompeteAugust 14, 2018

    For what it is worth, I have been noticing that Manny Banuelos has been relieving exclusively lately. Getting tuned up for a September call up?

  9. dodgerrickAugust 14, 2018

    More news about the Dodgers’ offense per TrueBlueLA:

    Re; Matt Kemp: “Since July 24, Kemp’s three hits are the lowest amongst players with at least 57 plate appearances. The next closest is Jose Bautista with seven. Not only is he dead-last in hits, he is also dead-last in AVG (.060), OBP (.140), SLG (.080), OPS (.220) and wRC+ (-35).”

    “Another player vitally struggling to hit south paws has been Chris Taylor. In 2017, Taylor hit a remarkable .297 against left-handers. Since June 29, Taylor is hitting .167, which is tied for third-worst. His .217 on-base percentage is the fourth worst.”

    “Since being acquired at the trade deadline, Brian Dozier only has one hit off of a left-hander (.125 AVG). Austin Barnes is 4-for-27 (.148 AVG). Cody Bellinger is hitting .175 and has the sixth lowest slugging-percentage.

    Matt Kemp is hitting .195 and has the third lowest average on balls put in play”

    “five of the next six starters the Dodgers face will be left-handed, so this upcoming week may present one of the Dodgers’ biggest challenges of the year.”

  10. Mark TimmonsAugust 14, 2018

    Rotoworld:

    Kenley Jansen (heart) threw a bullpen session Monday and will throw another one Wednesday and Friday.

    Dodgers manager Dave Roberts said Monday that the team was “encouraged” about Jansen’s chances of beating his projected 4-6 week timetable. That’s the good news. That bad news is Jansen was also told by doctors that there’s a good chance he will need ablation surgery again this offseason, which is the same procedure he had six years ago. Scott Alexander is the favorite for saves in the L.A. bullpen for now, although manager Dave Roberts has indicated he could use multiple relievers.

  11. DanielAugust 14, 2018

    Someone know something about Jensen status? I AM JUST READING HE WOLUD NEED ANOTHER HEArt surgery at the end of the season.

  12. dodgerrickAugust 14, 2018

    Per TrueBlueLA:

    “During the last six weeks, the boys in blue have hit .201 against left-handers, which is the lowest number in baseball. To go along with the lowest average, they are also last in slugging percentage (.312) as well as OPS (.592).

    The player who has most notably struggled the most is Kiké Hernandez. For his career, Hernandez has been known as a better hitter against lefties. When he’d get opportunities to start, they would normally be against left-handed pitchers.

    Since June 29, Hernandez has been the worst hitter in baseball against lefties. In 44 plate appearances, Kiké only has four hits. His slash line sits at .095/.116/.143/.259, all the worst in baseball during that stretch.”

    No more Kike please

  13. DanielAugust 13, 2018

    the last shifts to the bat of kike have been of very low quality. today it will be an interesting exercise to philosophize about which is better: hitting rhythm or statistics’

  14. the truth hurtsAugust 13, 2018

    DODGERS GIANTS ON MLB NETWORK TONIGHT, FYI

  15. roger askewAugust 13, 2018

    Dang, both Taylor and Barnes in the lineup against Bum. Take a damn chance and throw Joc and Grandal in there, no way they could do worse. Taylor is turning into a swinging saloon door. You almost wonder if his eyesight is off. Dude is officially leading the league in strikeouts.

  16. the truth hurtsAugust 13, 2018

    DOZIER

    TURNER

    MACHADO

    KIKE

    TAYLOR

    PUIG

    BELL

    BARNES

    KERSHAW

  17. Mark TimmonsAugust 13, 2018

    DODGERS REINSTATE ERIK GOEDDEL

    LOS ANGELES – The Los Angeles Dodgers today reinstated right-handed pitcher Erik Goeddel from the 10-day disabled list and optioned switch-handed pitcher Pat Venditte to Triple-A Oklahoma City.

    Goeddel, who missed nine games with right lat inflammation, last pitched on August 2 against the Brewers, where he allowed three runs on two hits over 1.0 inning of relief. In 30 games with Seattle and Los Angeles this season, the California native has a 3-0 record, 3.06 ERA (12 ER/35.1 IP) and has limited the opposition to a .202 average.

    Venditte, 33, has appeared in five games with Los Angeles, allowing four runs over 4.1 innings (8.31 ERA), while striking out four against one walk.

  18. Mark TimmonsAugust 13, 2018

    If Kenley had been healthy last weekend, the perspective might be somewhat different.

  19. roger askewAugust 13, 2018

    Just heard Uncle Ned on Dodgertalk this morning talking about the bullpen and how incredibly difficult it would be for us to get a good reliever and run him through the waiver gauntlet without having somebody claim him. He didn’t sound too optimistic, which he usually is. We might be stuck with what we have in house. Like Mark says, we better hold on tight, this could get kind of rough.

  20. BumsrapAugust 13, 2018

    I am okay with the team as it is.

  21. HawkeyedodgerAugust 13, 2018

    Whether or not the Dodgers hitters are slumping, the bullpen is not an acceptable piece of this team. Let’s say the Dodgers make the playoffs. The games are usually going to not be slug fests, but close games where the pen must be relied upon. FAZ’s philosophy is to gather cheap arms for the pen and hope enough work out like Morrow did. Get enough warm bodies in here that they can piece together innings 6-8. Maybe Dozier was a response to striking out on a good relief pitcher, but a quality piece should have been obtained if they were serious about winning it all this year.

  22. Mark TimmonsAugust 13, 2018

    I must respectfully disagree with the disagreement. 😉

    I still say that relievers are a crapshoot and FAZ is not so stupid that they don’t value relievers. That’s silly to me. This year, to stay under the luxury tax, spending money on relief pitching was a luxury they could not afford. Even Watson would have been pushing the envelope. Many of us wanted Herrera (on DL), Bear Claw (22.00+ ERA) or Britton (up and down). Of course, there are others who have done well and many others who have done poorly.

    I want you to think back to last year. This time last year, the Houston Astros were nearer the bottom than the top in MLB in pitching. Their closer was a psycho and the staff had many injuries. On Aug 31st they traded for Verlander and their pitchers got healthy. Some starters became relievers and the rest is history. They ended up winning it all without a closer, because they had a lot of guys who could pitch 2, 3 or 4 innings.

    I do not think it was by design, but the Dodgers are on the same path the Astros were last year. The Dodgers bullpen had a 3.38 ERA last year, while the Astros was 4.27. This year the Dodgers bullpen ERA is at 3.92 while the Astros is 3.03.

    The Dodgers are getting healthy and I will remind you that it’s not how you start, it’s how you finish. The Dodgers are #2 in starter ERA this year, while the Astros are #1, but some starters are goiing to the pen. All I will say is that I still believe that this team is built for the playoffs…

    History will acquit or convict me.

  23. tedraymondAugust 13, 2018

    Concerning the current bullpen woes, I don’t understand why there wasn’t a conference call with Roberts, Honeycutt, Pryor and the front office to address this situation soon as Jansen went down. As much number crunching done by the front office I’m sure they have an algorithm for replacing a closer. And, if there was a meeting of the minds, this bullpen disaster in the last three games, was the plan? Like Jerry Harriston mentioned on a post game show, pick a closer and move forward. It’s probably not going to be up to the standards of Jansen, but let the bullpen know it’s roles moving forward. But, no, it’s fly by the seat of your pants approach. Bring in Alexander to close and then pull him after the 2nd batter because Arenado once hit a home run against him. Alexander has, also, gotten him out three times. And then bring in Chargois who was set up for failure. Again, Roberts overthinks with his bullpen and then tries to justify his thinking post game. It’s embarrassing.

    As of now, I would go with Axford to close. Experienced in the role and last two appearances were excellent. Will he be Jansen? Most likely not, but a defined role for him will increase the probably of success. Maeda and Alexander for the eighth inning. The remaining bullpen of Ferguson, Stripling, Chargois, Goeddel, Floro, and eventually Wood. If Axford is somewhat successful, that’s a good bullpen to get us through until Jansen returns.

  24. dodgerrickAugust 13, 2018

    Courtesy of TrueBlueLA, re: the offense: “Since scoring 21 runs against Milwaukee on Aug. 2, the Dodgers have scored 27 total runs in nine games. Last week in six games they were 10-for-48 (.208) with runners in scoring position.”

  25. dodgerrickAugust 13, 2018

    SABRphiles emphasize the volatility of relief pitchers, especially middle relievers. A few years back, Jason Stark of ESPN.com wrote an article in which he quoted a baseball GM:

    “The first thing you’ve got to remember,” said another GM, “is they’re relievers for a reason. The reason they become relievers in the first place is because they have some flaws. They don’t have a third pitch. They can’t repeat their delivery. They’ve got an unorthodox arm angle. So we made them relievers — because if we had a choice, we’d make them starters. Just the fact that we made them relievers means you’re looking at an imperfect crop to begin with.”

    Another quote from a different article: “There’s no right way to build a bullpen; sometimes the big money thing works, sometimes the scrap heap approach works. … the best thing to do is have enough depth in case Plan A, Plan B, or even Plan C fails. ”

    This is the thinking that informs the Braintrust. Relievers are a dime a dozen. If one doesn’t work then just get another one because relief pitchers, other than the guys like Jansen who are great year after year, are so inconsistent.

    Think of this – name one reliever resigned by the Braintrust other than Jansen? You can’t because there aren’t any. So each year, you build a new ‘pen with guys from the minors and other teams’ broken and spare parts. Sometimes it works and sometimes it doesn’t but the process matters to these guys more than the outcomes.

    This year’s group of spare parts includes Floro, Chargois, Rosscup, Axford, Goeddel, Hudson, Venditte, et al. Has anyone looked to see what this group accomplished in 2017? The only investment other than Jansen made in this year’s ‘pen is Alexander.

    Does anyone think that it will be any different next year?

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