Ron Fairly Taught Me

I think it was in 1965 or 1966 that I figured out Ran Fairly was not very good against LHP. I was only 12 years old, but every time a LHP went against the Dodgers, I knew that Ron Fairly (who may have been my favorite Dodger at one time) would not do well. To the best of my knowledge, platoons were not a thing back then… at least, they were never discussed. Today, they are becoming a big part of the game… and many fans hate it!

I think it was about that time that I really became a fan of the Dodgers and not just one player. I think that is a big difference between myself and many other fans: I do not have one player that I am a fan of. Many of you are fans of a player as much as you are fans of the Dodgers. I enjoy looking at minor-league prospects and their skill set and predicting how they will do. In recent years, I have added analytics to my evaluation process. I read all the Prospect Reports: Keith Law, BA, BP, Fangraphs, and others. I also have a network of friends who have been in an around baseball for many years and I talk with them.

Then, I draw my own conclusions. I am not always right, but over the past 20 years, I have predicted great things for Clayton Kershaw (I saw one of his first A-League Games and knew he was special), Matt Kemp, Cody Bellinger, Corey Seager, Alex Verdugo (he has not yet achieved what I think), Keibert Ruiz (he is still developing), Walker Buehler, and many others. I did miss big time on Andy LaRoche (I was way off). I did not like Jeren Kendall, Zach Lee, Gavin Lux. or Grant Holmes as picks. I never thought Lux could play SS, but he has become a better hitter than I thought. However, I still do not think he can play SS.

The point of all of this is that no one gets it right all the time. If someone tells me that they “Knew Will Smith” would be what he is, I guarantee that if you gave them an enema, you could bury them in a shoebox. Will Smith was athletic and a good defensive catcher, but no one thought he would be a good hitter (NO ONE). BA said this about him in 2017:

At the plate Smith showed strong strike-zone awareness and sneaky pop, but overall grades as a fringe-average hitter due to his lack of natural hitting instincts and inconsistent feel for the barrel. Still, evaluators believe he will hit just enough to be an everyday catcher.

–Baseball America

Well, he certainly surpassed that. No one saw that coming, except maybe someone in a mental institution. Ron Fairly taught me not to have a favorite player when I have a favorite team. The reason is that I want the team to win every game, and to do that, you have to put players in their best position for the team to win. That sometimes means platooning. Yesterday, someone was questioning why platoon someone who has a good OB% but little power. I’ll get to that soon and deliver an education on OB% vs. OPS – there is a huge difference.

At any rate, where I am going with this is that there are certain players who have unusual skills which your eyes can see and statistics back up. Miguel Vargas is one of those players, and it is beyond moronic and childish that some of you are so determined to prove that I do not know anything about Miguel Vargas. Some of it falls upon the illusion that liking a player is tantamount to talent evaluation. You can like James Outman all you want. I love his story. I love his athleticism, his never-say-die attitude, his hustle, and his willingness to change. If he is your favorite player, so be it. I do not say he needs to be platooned – I say that because it’s what I see. Can he evolve even more and hit LHP? Sure, and I would give him that opportunity, but when he goes up there and looks absolutely pathetic, I have to draw conclusions.

I watched James Outman in the minor leagues and agreed 100% with BA on their evaluation:

Scouting Report: Outman is a physical, athletic specimen more usually seen playing football. He is a plus runner at 6-foot-3, 215 pounds with quick initial burst and elite acceleration in center field. He ticks up to nearly plus-plus speed underway and runs down long flies to both gaps and at the wall. The Dodgers refined Outman’s lefthanded swing to get his upper and lower halves more in sync. He still has a hand hitch and has to cheat to get to velocity, but he sees pitches well and crushes fastballs when he connects.

The Future: Outman is a nearly-ready fourth outfielder with his defense and power at the plate. He’ll head to Triple-A in 2022.

— Baseball America

The fact that he “still has a hand hitch and has to cheat to get to velocity” will limit him ultimately to being a platoon player or a 4th outfielder. On the other hand, Miguel Vargas caught my eye in 2019, as an 18-year-old. BA said this about him:

Scouting Report: Vargas had a reputation as one of Cuba’s top youth hitters and lived up to it in his pro debut, batting .400/.464/.592 at the Rookie levels before finishing the year at low Class A Great Lakes. Strong and physical at 6-foot-3, 198 pounds, Vargas combines an advanced approach, supreme hand-eye coordination and plus raw power. He has an inside-out swing that primarily sends drives for doubles into the right-center gap, but once he learns to pull the ball evaluators expect his home run numbers to spike. Defensively, Vargas has quick hands and an above-average arm at third base, but his slow-twitch body has most evaluators projecting him to first.

The Future: Vargas will have to mash to rise as a likely first baseman, but he has the offensive tools to do it. He’ll start 2019 back at Great Lakes.

— BA 2019

I won’t bore you will all the scouting reports, but in 2022, BA said this:

Scouting Report: Vargas is a natural-born hitter with an uncanny feel for the barrel. His flat swing keeps his bat in the zone for a long time and covers the entire plate, allowing him to drive balls no matter where they’re pitched. His inside-out swing naturally drives balls the other way into the right-center gap, but he began turning on pitches in 2021 and surprised even Dodgers officials with his above-average pull-side power. He rarely strikes out and is a consensus plus hitter. Vargas faces more questions defensively. He catches balls hit at him and has solid hands, but his slow feet limit his range and mobility at third base. He is a fringy defender with a slightly better than average arm and may have to move to first.

The Future: Vargas draws comparisons to fellow countryman Yuli Gurriel as a hitter and has similar impact potential. He’ll open 2022 at Triple-A and could make his major league debut during the year.

— BA, 2022

Then is 2023, they wrote this:

Scouting Report: Vargas is as complete a hitter as any player his age. He has outstanding control of the strike zone, an innate sense for which pitches to attack and an elite feel for the barrel. He squares up all types of pitches with a direct, inside-out swing that stays in the zone for a long time and covers the entire plate, giving pitchers few holes to attack. He naturally drives the ball the opposite way to right-center field and has begun turning on pitches on the inner half. Vargas doesn’t have huge raw power, but he’s a borderline plus-plus hitter who makes so much quality contact he should reach 20-plus home runs as he gets stronger. Vargas has remade his body to become sleeker and faster and is now a plus runner who posted the second-fastest sprint speed on the Dodgers in 2022. The improved agility has helped his range at third base, but he’s still a below-average defender whose actions, footwork, throwing accuracy and focus need improvement. He is raw and inexperienced at first base, second base and left field.

The Future: Vargas earns frequent comparisons to countryman Yuli Gurriel and has similar potential to be a premier hitter who contends for batting titles. The Dodgers will try to find Vargas’ best position to get him in the lineup every day in 2023.

Scouting Grades: Hitting: 65. Power: 50. Speed: 60. Fielding: 40. Arm: 55

— BA, 2023

By actual count, I have watched Miguel Vargas and most other Dodger prospects over 100 games throughout the years. Get this straight: Miguel Vargas is not my favorite player. He is simply a player that many talent evaluators (including me) think will be a very good MLB player. Only a moron, dumbass, idiot, or clinically insane person would change their opinion about Miguel Vargas based upon the fact that he broke two fingers early last season and never was the same afterward. Who needs fingers to hit anyway? All I can say to you, naysayers, is…

Now, Miguel Vargas may not make it in MLB. There are many prospects (some better than him) who have flamed out. I will be the first to say that I was wrong, but right about now, if you say that Vargas is not a top MLB prospect…

Also, if Miguel Vargas can be included in a trade that fills a Dodger team need, then I am all for it. Tomorrow, I will review Michael Busch and what we might expect from him.

OB% vs. OPS

I like to break things down to their simplest form. OB% simply tells us what percentage of the time a player gets on base. On the other hand, OPS is a barometer of how far they get each time they come up to bat. This is where that player ends up on average. The best players in the game (superstars) have an OPS of over 1.000. That means that every time they step into the batters box, they will end up at 1B (on average). So, would you rather have a player with a .664 OPS and a .353 OB% (James Outman) or a player with a .career .340 OB% but a .804 OPS (Max Muncy) against LHP? The guy with the higher OPS gets closer to 1B every time he is up. I rest my case!