Quick View of a Quick Season

Looks like AF didn’t agree with some of us who thought Gore might be a possibility for the runner at second to start extra innings. He didn’t make the roster. Maybe they think this roster is so good they won’t even need to go into extra innings this year.

I agree with you DBM. Would have like to have seen DeGeus included.

DBM – You’re going to spoil M.J.T.

I think you and I could come up with some kick- ass rosters given some time..

This team and it’s depth is remarkable. Can we run away with the Cono schedule?? I’d say with execution, health and some luck we kick arse and take no hostages. I

Totally had forgotten about Floro. Impressive list. I guess Gore did not show Roberts and AF enough to be included on the 60 man. Lots of youth with this bunch.

Great post, fun to read. But I must admit that one thing stood out, because it is by far my biggest strategy peeve. Yes, I completely agree that you should almost never bunt with a man on second base and no outs. Of course, in regular baseball, the runner got to second because of a hit, meaning that the pitcher might be vulnerable, whereas here he is on second by fiat. Even so, it is such a bad strategical move to waste a precious out to move a runner from second to third And of course sometimes you don’t even get that; the batter pops the bunt up. Sometimes you get your runner thrown out at third. We’ve seen all of that.

I know that many here love Tommy Lasorda, but I was never a fan. And he virtually always called for the bunt in the late innings in that situation. If you let the batter swing away, he might actually get a base hit, it does happen. If he does try to punch the ball to the right side, it might go through, it might get bobbled. Or you might get a fly ball to right. And yet, over and over again, we would bunt. Torre almost never did it. Roberts does it sometimes. It is bad strategy. And here, even worse, because both teams get the same opportunity. Play for one run, and you are going to see the other team getting two and beating you. With this lineup, it is even dumber, there are too many good hitters to give their at bats away. I do not like the rules change, but some teams are going to deal with it better than others.

Gore? I could live with him or without him. AF probably has the right idea, but Andre Jackson over de Geus?

This could be really fun… if this COVID thing doesn’t ruin it.

Hey everybody,

It’s been fun. I’ll commit to once a month if Jeff will allow it!

Godspeed to everyone! Be safe. Wear your damn masks and let’s just get along!

Trying to go through the thinking of the 60 man squad make up out

5 catchers makes sense

2 on 30(28)(26) man squad (Smith/Barnes)

2 back at SC/Rancho with “COVID squad” (Gale/Cartaya)

IIRC, there is also a 3 man traveling “taxi squad” one of who is a catcher (Ruiz)

? switch Ruiz and Gale ? not sure of the 40 man status of the taxi squad but assume they may need to be on the 40 man roster so went with Ruiz

Here are further details on the possible role of the catcher on the Taxi Squad,

“A three-player Taxi Squad — which every team is expected to carry on all road trips — must feature at least one catcher, while the other two players can be either pitchers or position players. One executive said he expects most teams to carry a pitcher, a utility player and a catcher, though some could opt to bring two pitchers and a catcher.

These three players will be permitted to work out with the team on the road, while the catcher will also be allowed to serve as a bullpen catcher. At the end of the road trip, Taxi Squad players will return to the team’s Alternate Training Site, though the catcher will be permitted to stay with the team as a bullpen catcher for home games.”

An interesting perspective:

“Hypothetical Scenarios”

During the large pandemic that peaked in the US in April we often saw peaks in reported cases. Sometimes these were easily identified as “testing anomalies” due to changes in reporting or testing protocols.

Other times there was ambiguity, and we’d have to wait a week to confirm whether the reported cases numbers reflected an actual infection.

Most often, if the cases were real we would see the smaller “echo” of the cases peak in the deaths data about seven days later. (Typically 50 to 100 times smaller.)

But sometimes we needed to know *who* was being tested in order to understand the data (for example in the case of a prison population), because the cases were real but very few (if any) deaths followed.

Sometimes we could confirm the cases peak as an echo in the hospitalization data.

There were also situations where there was a sudden peak in deaths that was not forecast by the reported cases (not proportional), such as what can happen if a rest home is infected by a single infected individual.

So there are multiple possible scenarios, and we’ve now observed several of them and learned to recognize them. But things are always changing.

Since this was the first large wave in most regions, it makes sense that a larger wild infection would readily discover the easy vectors and low-hanging fruit; the easy to pick off victims. So deaths numbers functioned as a very sensitive metric, even when the larger infected population was not very vulnerable. For example, the larger infection could “leak” by means of a prison guard or rest home worker.

But now that the easiest vectors are spent and the low-hanging fruit has been picked, our sensitive metric is less sensitive. And our vulnerable folks who have survived so far are probably even more careful now, including those who have been protecting them. They’ve witnessed what can happen if you don’t take this seriously.

We might now be experiencing a new infection from South of the border. We know for a fact that the US is bringing sick US citizens and green card holders from Mexico to US hospitals (as we should), and that infected migrant workers have been arriving in the US, providing their vital annual services.

These are typically younger, stronger folks. They are workers! So even if many of them are infected, we may not see very many of them hospitalized nor perish (thankfully). A large infection could be harder to detect.

To make matters worse, many regions in the US have dramatically increased widespread testing, disguising what could be valuable information about the smaller spark of a new epidemic.

To recognize the various possible scenarios, and to delineate convoluted multiple scenarios, we are going to need lots of detailed information. And sometimes even that won’t be enough to discover what is going on. We are not doing a controlled experiment here.

Folks have been asking me to work on Florida, and I have been. But is is tough. Florida may be the “perfect storm” of convoluted data, because you have tourists, migrant workers, revelers, etc. all stirred into a single pot.

Mike Leake has announced he’s opting out of playing this season. I’m not aware that he has any underlying physical conditions so this is just a safety thing with him if I’m correct.

I imagine there will be others. I guess we’ll know when it comes time to report over the next few days. Two Twins coaches have also opted out.

Where is everyone this morning?

Here’s an interesting tidbit. Mets signed Melky Cabrera this morning. No real big deal, right?

The following players have fewer lifetime hits than Melky:

Ryan Braun, Andruw Jones, Jose Canseco, Chase Utley, Joey Votto, Mark Teixeira, Hanley Ramirez, Edwin Encarnacion, Dustin Pedroia, Curtis Granderson, Hunter Pence, Ryan Zimmerman, Matt Kemp, David Wright and Nelson Cruz.

Melky has more career doubles than Hank Greenberg, Sammy Sosa, Gary Carter, Jim Rice, and Ichiro.

I had no clue.

Best movie ending ever… if I spoiled it because you haven’t seen it… you are not a real fan:

Question….with the new rule of an extra inning game, we put a runner on 2nd base to start the extra inning. I understand that if that runner scores, the pitcher will not get charged with an earned run. What about the player put on 2nd? Does he get a hit or is it called IBR, meaning Intentional Base Runner?

Ryan Zimmerman has opted not to play this season. That plus the loss of Rendon will really hurt the Nats

Good info Mark, I totally get the article on scenarios you posted and wonder why others are so confused by it. Oh well, I guess mindset plays a major role. “For those that have eyes to see, let them see. For those who have ears to hear, let them hear”. Badger you will have to dig in and find the source on that quote on your own, it will be a good exercise.

Has anyone heard anything on fans attending games, like 1 person per section in the stadium and they have to arrive individually every other inning or what are some of the ideas on how this might work. Has MLB actually made any definitive statements on this fan attendance matter. Those 60 tickets for every game are going to be like gold, sure will be easy to get out of the parking lots after the games.

The quote is from a Facebook page and you can join the group. It is very enlightening. Lots to read… and I mean LOTS!

My husband just ordered me a beautiful T-Shirt. It says:

NEVER

UNDERESTIMATE

A WOMAN

WHO UNDERSTANDS BASEBALL

AND LOVES DODGERS

It has a picture of Clayton, Bellinger Corey, Urias, Buehler, Kenley and I think a lhp I did not recognize. I will wear it with pride.

So we’ve won the division 7 straight times (in 162 games, of course). But if we pretend that each of those seasons was only the first 60 games, as will be be the case in 2020, we would’ve only won the division 2 times! In fact, we would’ve finished last in 2013, and 2nd in 2014 and 2016! Shows that our depth gets us thru the dog days and we start pulling away in the 2nd half.

So this 60 game sprint won’t be easy whatsoever. Cannot afford a few blown saves early, and we can’t say “oh, it’s early, Kenley (or whoever) will get it right by playoff time”

I like it. It will be unique and gut wrenching if we’re 20-20 to start things.