Progress Report – Season is 33% Completed

One-third of the 162 game season is over! The Dodgers are in first place in the NL West, 2.5 games ahead of the San Diego Padres and 5.5 games ahead of the Midgets. It should not be lost on anyone that the Dodgers have had their #1 and their #2 starters perform poorly and that the #3 and #4 starters have been in the IL most of the season. Let me repeat that:

The Dodgers are in First Place while their Top Four Starters have been injured or impaired. The Athletic addressed Walker Buehler’s issues:

“His struggles had centered on a four-seam fastball that was once one of the most dynamic in the majors but instead had been battered whenever he’d throw it this season. The zip appeared to be back Saturday, matching a season-best in terms of velocity. But the command, which has been erratic, and rhythm in his delivery were not.

Buehler hasn’t looked like himself, and has at times faced an ensuing identity crisis with who he is as a pitcher. He expressed surprise that, even after arriving at a lockout-shortened spring training as prepared as any pitcher in camp, he still hasn’t found the right levers to lock his mechanics into place. His release point has dropped as he sought to manipulate the effectiveness of his six-pitch mix. The four-seamer lost some of its dominant characteristics as he became more and more reliant on his cutter. His array of secondary options — a curveball, slider, changeup and two-seamer accompany his primary choices — struggled to replicate the overall dominance that has defined his young career.

“It’s kind of a high-maintenance delivery,” Buehler conceded after his most recent start before Saturday. “Obviously, I’m not 6-6 and 250 pounds. I’m a smaller guy and I’ve got to try to generate (velocity) somehow. There’s mechanics stuff and usage stuff, all these puzzle pieces. But at the end of the day, I just want to be better.”

It has surprised even his manager that those mechanisms would fall so far out of whack.“

However, unlike the Mets Jacob deGrom and Max Scherzer, Walker is not injured! He can fix his mechanics, over time, but health is a totally different animal. Max Scherzer will be 38 years old next month. Jacob deGrom will be 34 next week. When will they start “breaking down?” They already have! I would not trade Buehler and Urias for deGrom and Scherzer in any solar system. Urias and Buehler will figure it out. Buehler’s mechanics are simply out of whack – well “simply” is not a good word. If it were simple, he would have fixed it already.

Sometimes these things take a Charlie Hough, Rick Honeycutt, Jamey Wright, Dave Borkowski, or Dontrelle Willis to fix. All are still on the Dodgers payroll. Of course Mark Prior and Conner McGinnis are the people he talks to every day, and maybe Rob Hill is looking at it too. Walker Buehler has a 3.84 ERA, which is not good by his standards, but it’s better than Yu Darvish, Aaron Nola, Robie Ray, Kyle Hendricks and many other starting pitchers. I preducxt that it will be under 3.00 by the All-Star Break.

Julio Urias is not far off – he has not been sharp, but his ERA is 2.78. He will be fine. Injuries are worrisome, but mechanics are fixable. Walker knows he is a smaller guy who has to generate power with his mechanics which can be more complex than say, a Bobby Miller who uses his whole body to generate power. As Walker ages, he will become more like Kershaw – he’s not a deGrom. If I were the Mets, I would worry about deGrom and Scherzer. Scherzer has lots of miles on that arm… deGrom has battled injury for 3 years, missing significant time.

Clayton Kershaw, Andrew Heaney and several other pitchers are due back over the next several weeks. Mitch White has stepped up and gets another chance tonight. Tyler Anderson has been a revelation. No one expected this. The pitching will be just fine. The Dodgers are still 1st in ERA in the NL. Everyone else is about a half run a game behind them.

It should also not be lost on anyone that the Dodgers are where they are with Cody Bellinger, Max Muncy, Justin Turner, and Gavin Lux all OPS’ing below .700. Will Smith is also close to being there as his OPS is .731. At least three of those guys are going to need to figure it out. Mookie Bettes (.975 OPS), Freddie Freeman (.834 OPS), Trea Turner (.821 OPS), and Chris Taylor (.800 OPS) have carried the team, but I think Freeman and Trea will both improve this OPS as the season progresses.

The Dodgers are where they are without a consistent cleanup hitter all year. Gavin Lux has tantalized us several times this year, but .261 with only 8 extra-base hits in 153 AB’s ain’t so good! By comparison, Justin Turner who is hitting .223 has 20 extra base hits. Cody (20 extra base hits) has to improve (at least a little) with the bat, while Smith, Lux, JT, and Max have to improve a lot. Will Smith is really struggling with just 11 extra base hits. Max Muncy also has just 8 extra base hits.

Is there help on the horizon? I guess that Mike Busch and/or Miguel Vargas could get the call, but Busch is certainly not ready and Vargas really needs more time too. The Dodgers could live with a no-hit catcher, but they need better production from 3B and 2B. Max Muncy could be the solution, if he is healthy. It might be month or more before that happens. I have two questions to ask:

1. “Are we seeing Justin Turner’s final chapter or will be pull a Mookie Betts and hit his way outta’ this?“
2. “Will the Santa Ana winds and hot weather make the balls fly off the Dodger bats?“

If the hitters I mentioned do not get it together, the Dodgers may have to dip into that Farm System and trade some prospects for some players who can hit. Think Miguel Vargas, Landon Knack, Jose Ramos, and Luis Rodriguez for Jose Ramirez. That probably won’t happen, and I’m betting that the abovementioned players will come around… with a quickness!