Progress is Not Always Linear!
We all look at the stats and sometimes believe that the stats tell you you are what your stats say you are, and while that is sometimes true, players can grow in their skill set or regress. However, the progression (or regression) is not always linear. Witness one Enrique Kike Hernandez. About this time last year (March 15, 2018, to be exact) I wrote this, while referring back to a
We all look at the stats and sometimes believe that the stats tell you “you are what your stats say you are,” and while that is sometimes true, players can grow in their skill set or regress. However, the progression (or regression) is not always linear. Witness one Enrique “Kike” Hernandez. About this time last year (March 15, 2018, to be exact) I wrote this, while referring back to a few months earlier:
On November 2, 2017, still reeling from a World Series loss, I wrote this:
Kike Hernandez is looked at as a “super utilityman” because he can play anywhere… especially SS, but a lot of people are dismissive of his offense. Me? I think there is a possibility that he could be a huge offensive force in the future. Quit laughing and listen to this:
Through age 25, JD Martinez was a utility player who hit a grand total of 24 HR in 899 at-bats. At age 25, Kike Hernandez has accumulated 28 HR in 836 AB’s. At age 26 Martinez worked on transforming his swing much like Justin Turner, Jose Bautisa and Chris Taylor have and grew into the player he is today. The Dodgers could go out and sign JD Martinez or they could let Kike Hernandez grow into a player like JD. I am not saying that he will… but he could! You have to at least consider it.
Kike Hernandez is the Dodgers “Swiss Army Knife” as he can play just about anywhere. He plays 7 of the 9 positions adeptly and he is the emergency catcher. He can likely throw 95+ MPH so I think there will be a game where he plays all 9 positions at some juncture. But, can he hit RH pitching? It’s no secret that he owns left-handers, hitting .270 against Lefties last year with a .367 OB% and a .946 OPS. He hit 10 HR against LH pitching in 152 at-bats.
He also hit an anemic .159 against RH Pitching. That is a big problem… if it continues. So far, this Spring, it hasn’t! It’s a small sampling, but in Spring Training THIS year, Kike has hit all three of his HR against RH Pitchers and is OPS’ing over 1.300. If he keeps that up, Kike has to be an “Everyday Utilityman,” meaning he will play just about everyday at a different position. Kike got 297 AB’s last year. 400 to 500 would not be out of the question this year. If he gets 500 AB’s he will hit 25-30 HR. It all depends upon how he hits RH pitching.
Kike has immense power and power to the opposite field. As I said, he is capable of hitting 30 HR if he can hit RHP. Last night, he hit a homerun and a double off of the Rockies fireballing-ace, Jon Gray. That is certainly reason for optimism. Kike Hernandez could be one of the most important cogs in the Dodger Machine.
Kike did have a good season in 2018 – he hit more HR and cut down on his strikeouts, but his progress has not always been linear. This Spring, Kike is is hitting .341 with a .404 OB% and a 1.038 OPS, Kike has worked hard to get into better shape, studied film and worked with Robert Van Socyoc and Company to keep his bat “in the zone” longer.
Kike will do whatever the Dodgers ask of him, but he doesn’t want to be the Dodgers “Swiss Army Knife” anymore. He wants a position and a chance to start. His play reflects his resolve. Yes, I know it is Spring Training, but Kike is blossoming (evolving) into the type of hitter I envisioned a few years ago. Whether he can be as good as JD Martinez remains to be seen, but I can see Kike improving. Here are his OPS the past three years:
- 2016 – .607 (Poor)
- 2017 – .729 (Average)
- 2018 – .806 (Above Average)
According to Bill James classifications of hitters, over .8334 is “Very Good” and over .900 is considered “Great.” Kike Hernandez crept up on us and now he is on verge of being Very Good or maybe even Great! If possible, I’d like to see Kike get a shot at being a full time position player at 2B. That’s what he wants to do, but he will do whatever the team asks. This guy is as serious about his game as he is goofy about his outlook on life.
Kike “Middle-of-the-Order Hitter?” I can see it. Maybe the Dodgers don’t need a Swiss Army Knife with Brad Miller (who looks like he belongs) and Chris Taylor. It’s going to be hard to keep all the players on the squad, unless the Dodgers go with 12 pitchers. All of these players deserve to be on the team:
- Barnes
- Martin
- Muncy
- Freese
- Hernandez
- Seager
- Turner
- Pederson
- Taylor
- Pollock
- Bellinger
- Verdugo
- Miller
I think the Dodgers will be looking at keeping 12, not 13 pitchers. It’s always in flux, but here is my Opening Day lineup:
- Pollock CF
- Seager SS
- Turner 3B
- Bellinger RF
- Muncy 1B
- Pederson LF
- Hernandez 2B
- Barnes C
- Buehler P
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Discussion (82)
Disagree, not disagreeable
1. I do not think the Dodgers will start Verdugo over Joc in LF… unless Joc really sucks the rest of Spring Training. They want Alex to REALLY earn the position… and I think he will.
2. To those of you who want to make fun of Dave Roberts and/or Friedman for not being forthcoming about injuries, all I can say, is it’s something you have to do… every team does it. Many times they can’t give you a straight answer because the player doesn’t want it out or the team doesn’t want it out. Teams who divulge this kind of stuff are called one thing: LOSERS! Get a clue!
3. I happen to agree with ramping up starters slowly. It helps them be fresher later. Quit comparing this year with Jansen in 2018. Yes, they started him slow and he had a leg injury that sidelined him much longer and then the heart issue. Not even close to the same thing.
4. Don’t draw any conclusions on Joc, Muncy and CT3 in Spring Training. Wait for the bell to ring and CT3 is not going to AAA. Never, Nada!
5. Signing Trout was a good business decision but a horrible baseball decision. The Angels will never win!
6. I am not convinced Corey Seager will start the season on the Active Roster.
7. This is Spring Training, where players you never heard of become options.
8. Realize that the Farmer Trade was made for several reasons, but one of them was to eliminate so many platoons.
9. AJ Pollock and Justin Turner will have stats very similar to each other.
I would start ryu in the opener. I would be ok with hill as well but I hope they go with ryu. There was never a chance in hades that kershaw or buehler would start. The only one who didn’t know that was roberts. I keep reading how the Dodgers have the best most talented 40 man so why wouldn’t roberts winning pct be top notch. He has had the best pitcher in the game so he should win his share.
I’m glad the Angels signed trout for 12 years. Maybe they can extend pujois a couple more. As great as trout is that’s a long time to stay healthy and produce at the level that is expected. Has trout been on any World Series champions? The Angels were scared la might get involved at free agency. That’s funny but it got them splurging.
We are probably going to need another bat at some point. As soon as pollock goes down we will need a rh bat. The backup right now would be Taylor. The opening day lineup: joc, seager, turner, bellinger, pollock, Muncy, kike,Barnes, Ryu
They say Corey will be in tomorrow’ big league game.
Wow, first Trout, now Bregman with the Astros. We may be seeing a new shift in baseball, where guys will take an extension instead of dangling out there like Machado and Harper for so many months. Freese mentioned a few months ago that he was glad to pick up his option instead of going through the new free agent process. totally agree
Thank you to everyone for being civil and treating each other with respect.
We are brothers (and sisters) in arms.
Feel free to disagree without being disagreeable.
Holy smokes, a Chase Utley sighting, in uniform in the Dodger dugout tonight. Wonder what they have planned for him, looks like his retirement was short lived. DO NOT let this guy get away, he should be Doc’s bench coach in a year or so. Damn I miss him.
What has happened to Carlos??
Carlos Miscavige Alert!!! Have the savages at LA Dodger talk hidden away this chronic menace from the public?? Carlos Miscavige who is he and what did he know, and when did he know it??? We Dodger fans demand to know. 🙂
I think he left to attend Spring Training.
Roger- Noticed Utley also. I hope he hangs with the team in some capacity..
Hey, did someone snake the drain and a Ham chuck was released!??
Hamchuck’s Take on the Trout Deal hhhhummm
$430m dollars. My word have we all lost our collective minds in sports? I know great of a ballplayer he is, superstar great. But $100m over the last guy, who is also considered by many superstar great . What is next is ask? $1 Billion Dollars? $1 Billion dollars say, plus perhaps the player demands a “Mini-Me” dressed exactly in his likeness? The salaries are becoming so astronomically high, that our beloved Front Office will have to start paying more and more for the “very good player” then more for the crappy players. The next step is ticket prices with will rise beyond the means for the every day consumer to attend One Game, let alone the Season. It costs an arm, plus several toes to go to a game now. In the future who knows. The game is getting ridiculous.
Thank you Vegas for that clarification on the savings the Angels get of $68 million dollars. But you do see how really laughable it is that ONLY gets $362 million dollars for the 10 year extension.
I am a capitalist, so I am not saying I oppose him going for it, since a whole lot of fools are willing to pay it. Get it while you can, but it is killing the game. It is why us “Old-Timers” are berated all the time for our comments. Sure, I know. Aaron, Mays, Koufax, Ruth, Cobb, Gehrig, they all got ripped by the owners. I get tired of hearing the complaints.
Perhaps, the behind the scenes contract dealings should be held secret so players stop trying outbid the next guy