Progress is Not Always Linear!
We all look at the stats and sometimes believe that the stats tell you you are what your stats say you are, and while that is sometimes true, players can grow in their skill set or regress. However, the progression (or regression) is not always linear. Witness one Enrique Kike Hernandez. About this time last year (March 15, 2018, to be exact) I wrote this, while referring back to a
We all look at the stats and sometimes believe that the stats tell you “you are what your stats say you are,” and while that is sometimes true, players can grow in their skill set or regress. However, the progression (or regression) is not always linear. Witness one Enrique “Kike” Hernandez. About this time last year (March 15, 2018, to be exact) I wrote this, while referring back to a few months earlier:
On November 2, 2017, still reeling from a World Series loss, I wrote this:
Kike Hernandez is looked at as a “super utilityman” because he can play anywhere… especially SS, but a lot of people are dismissive of his offense. Me? I think there is a possibility that he could be a huge offensive force in the future. Quit laughing and listen to this:
Through age 25, JD Martinez was a utility player who hit a grand total of 24 HR in 899 at-bats. At age 25, Kike Hernandez has accumulated 28 HR in 836 AB’s. At age 26 Martinez worked on transforming his swing much like Justin Turner, Jose Bautisa and Chris Taylor have and grew into the player he is today. The Dodgers could go out and sign JD Martinez or they could let Kike Hernandez grow into a player like JD. I am not saying that he will… but he could! You have to at least consider it.
Kike Hernandez is the Dodgers “Swiss Army Knife” as he can play just about anywhere. He plays 7 of the 9 positions adeptly and he is the emergency catcher. He can likely throw 95+ MPH so I think there will be a game where he plays all 9 positions at some juncture. But, can he hit RH pitching? It’s no secret that he owns left-handers, hitting .270 against Lefties last year with a .367 OB% and a .946 OPS. He hit 10 HR against LH pitching in 152 at-bats.
He also hit an anemic .159 against RH Pitching. That is a big problem… if it continues. So far, this Spring, it hasn’t! It’s a small sampling, but in Spring Training THIS year, Kike has hit all three of his HR against RH Pitchers and is OPS’ing over 1.300. If he keeps that up, Kike has to be an “Everyday Utilityman,” meaning he will play just about everyday at a different position. Kike got 297 AB’s last year. 400 to 500 would not be out of the question this year. If he gets 500 AB’s he will hit 25-30 HR. It all depends upon how he hits RH pitching.
Kike has immense power and power to the opposite field. As I said, he is capable of hitting 30 HR if he can hit RHP. Last night, he hit a homerun and a double off of the Rockies fireballing-ace, Jon Gray. That is certainly reason for optimism. Kike Hernandez could be one of the most important cogs in the Dodger Machine.
Kike did have a good season in 2018 – he hit more HR and cut down on his strikeouts, but his progress has not always been linear. This Spring, Kike is is hitting .341 with a .404 OB% and a 1.038 OPS, Kike has worked hard to get into better shape, studied film and worked with Robert Van Socyoc and Company to keep his bat “in the zone” longer.
Kike will do whatever the Dodgers ask of him, but he doesn’t want to be the Dodgers “Swiss Army Knife” anymore. He wants a position and a chance to start. His play reflects his resolve. Yes, I know it is Spring Training, but Kike is blossoming (evolving) into the type of hitter I envisioned a few years ago. Whether he can be as good as JD Martinez remains to be seen, but I can see Kike improving. Here are his OPS the past three years:
- 2016 – .607 (Poor)
- 2017 – .729 (Average)
- 2018 – .806 (Above Average)
According to Bill James classifications of hitters, over .8334 is “Very Good” and over .900 is considered “Great.” Kike Hernandez crept up on us and now he is on verge of being Very Good or maybe even Great! If possible, I’d like to see Kike get a shot at being a full time position player at 2B. That’s what he wants to do, but he will do whatever the team asks. This guy is as serious about his game as he is goofy about his outlook on life.
Kike “Middle-of-the-Order Hitter?” I can see it. Maybe the Dodgers don’t need a Swiss Army Knife with Brad Miller (who looks like he belongs) and Chris Taylor. It’s going to be hard to keep all the players on the squad, unless the Dodgers go with 12 pitchers. All of these players deserve to be on the team:
- Barnes
- Martin
- Muncy
- Freese
- Hernandez
- Seager
- Turner
- Pederson
- Taylor
- Pollock
- Bellinger
- Verdugo
- Miller
I think the Dodgers will be looking at keeping 12, not 13 pitchers. It’s always in flux, but here is my Opening Day lineup:
- Pollock CF
- Seager SS
- Turner 3B
- Bellinger RF
- Muncy 1B
- Pederson LF
- Hernandez 2B
- Barnes C
- Buehler P
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Discussion (82)
Disagree, not disagreeable
Mark, agree with most, if not all of what you said. But that’s not why I’m commenting. Just want you to know (and you may well be aware of this), that according to my Defenders of Wildlife calendar, today is World Water Day.
1 – The Dodgers have gone too slow in ramping up their starting pitchers in my opinion. The only 2 guys who have pitched more than 4 so far have been Hill and Stripling and neither could make it out of the 5th. It reminds me of the way that they slow-played Jansen last Spring. The point to Spring Training is to get players ready for the season and they don’t do a good job of that with SP in my opinion.
2 – The offense is lagging but that’s typical as hitters usually start behind the pitchers. I am concerned that the essentially the same group is out there as last year when they could only score by hitting HRs and this Spring they aren’t even doing that.
3 – Seager is supposed to start the season with the Dodgers but I suspect that Roberts et al are giving us the rope-a-dope on Seager they way they did with Kershaw and Buehler. The Dodgers don’t want to give any information to the opposition so they play games with stuff like this, even though most of us fans can figure it out anyway. Seager hasn’t played a single Spring game against big league competition yet.
4 – Taylor has picked up where he left off last season. Last night another 0 for 3 with 2 Ks.
5 – Dodger catchers have played well so far this Spring – but it’s probably an illusion.
6 – Several Dodger hitters aren’t hitting like they’re ready.
Muncy: .156/ .289/ .219/ .508
Taylor: 205/ .239 /.364/ .603
Pollock: .237/ .356/ .368/ .724
Martin: .238/ .273/ .429/ .701
Verdugo: .270/ .300/ .378/ .678
Bellinger and Pederson are hitting for power but not for average: (at least it’s something)
Bellinger: .216 .268 .541 .809
Pederson: .189 .279 .541 .820
Only Turner, Hernandez and Barnes look like they’re ready to start the season.
How about giving actual MLB players more AB and stop wasting AB on the likes of minor leaguers who aren’t going to be on the roster when the season starts? How about giving SP their innings and stop wasting them on guys I’ve never heard of?
7 – As to the Farmer trade, let’s wait ’till the end of the season. I expect a career year from Puig.
My hunch is Joc is gone by TD.
Lets compare Joc and Verdugo statistics at the end of the year.
The players in your lineup appears right on as long as Zack Greinke is the DBacks starting pitcher. It appears that he probably will be. He is having a good spring, and he has always pitched well at Dodger Stadium. But based on trends, I would suspect that Joc will lead off and not Pollock. I would suspect that AJ will bat 5th.
I think it would be absolutely unfair for the team and for Buehler if he were to be the opening day starter. He is scheduled to throw in a ST game for the first time today. If continues on normal rest, he would pitch again on Sunday meaning he would pitch opening day on 3 days rest. The rotation is setup for Rich Hill to be opening day starter.
12 pitchers is pipe dream. Neither Hill or Stripling could get out of the 5th inning in their last starts, and they have one more potential spring start. The team plays 33 games in the first 35 days, and with starting pitchers not expected to go 6 innings, how can you go with only 7 relief pitchers. As long as Kershaw is out, Strip needs to stay in the rotation eliminating one reliable reliever. Right or wrong, this team does not setup for pitchers to go deep into games, especially at the start of the season. If your starters are not expected to go deep, then you better have a bullpen.
I commented that I believe that Kike’ has earned the 2B starting job. I absolutely agree with you. CT3 will undoubtedly spell Corey at times during the first month of the season. I like Brad Miller, and I would hate to lose him, but right now there is no position for him, unless Verdugo goes down, which I cannot see happening. Hopefully he can be convinced to accept an assignment to OKC. If not Daniel Castro becomes that guy. Not a bad fallback.
My opinion
The Dodgers will carry 13 pitchers.
I think Muncy´s wrist is still giving him problems.
Still some games to play so things can change but my choice for LF is Verdugo.
Robert´s and his percentage, him or the players, I think I´ll ask Hill.
Trout – the madness and Monopoly money keeps raining . You think we could have a moratorium on Doc?? No Verdugo? Really M.T.?
Breaking: Trout signs huge extension
Open on bleacherreport.comhttps://bleacherreport.com/articles/2826558-report-mike-trout-angels-finalizing-historic-12-year-430m-contractGio Gonzales signs for $3M minor league deal with the Yankees. Makes Ryu at $17.9M look like a real bargain, no?
Jeff Passan @ ESPN is reporting Mike Trout and Angels w 12 yr/$430M extension. $35M+ AAV
I would love it if we carried 12 pitchers but that idea always gets shot down.
I’m surprised that Verdugo isn’t in your opening day lineup. You’re stacking 3 lefties in the middle, that isn’t going to happen. What’s the point of trying to predict lineups anyways? It will be different every day.
So, Roberts’ says Bueller is still being considered for the Opening Day starter yesterday, then today he isn’t. Typical Roberts. It seems to me that Roberts is always wrong in these situations. Could it be that he’s doesn’t know anymore than you and I because he doesn’t fill out the lineup card?
As far as Roberts’ winning percentage goes…Mattingly had a pretty good winning percentage too, now he doesn’t. Could it be because of the players?
The offense went to sleep again last night, so did I. The starting pitchers are getting gassed early. I fully expect another slow start like last year. Since none of them are built up, you can bet your house that there will be 13 pitchers on the Opening Day roster.
Corey will now play in a Spring game on Wednesday. I guess Friedman realized that playing on the minor league side until the Freeway Series wasn’t going to be a good idea.
I’m starting to realize that this team doesn’t have enough offense and no one on the farm will be ready to help out this year. Don’t expect Seager to start fast after being held back all Spring. Maybe he could have DH’d on the Major League side?