Player Development is not Always Linear
Pitchers and hitters don t progress from one stage to another in a straight line. That s what we would like, because we like predictable. We like things neatly arranged and sequential, but baseball player development happens so differently and sometimes, so maddeningly different than what we like, that we are frequently frustrated beyond belief. This time last year, Striker Buehler, who was then named Walker Buehler, was stinking up the joint
Pitchers and hitters don’t progress from one stage to another in a straight line. That’s what we would like, because we like predictable. We like things neatly arranged and sequential, but baseball player development happens so differently… and sometimes, so maddeningly different than what we like, that we are frequently frustrated beyond belief.
This time last year, Striker Buehler, who was then named “Walker” Buehler, was stinking up the joint with a 7.71 ERA and walked 7.7 batters per 9 innings. They were forced to change his name to Striker, when he dropped to 2.3 walked batters per 9 innings this season. That is a true story: Only the names have been changed… blah, blah, blah!
Chris Taylor and Cody Bellinger were the anointed ones about this time last year. However, their progress also has not been linear. One step forward and one step back is how much of this year has been for them. I, for one, have confidence in their march and I believe that both will remain/become very good players for a long time, but I get frustrated too.
Max Muncy has traveled a long and winding road. In 2015 and 2016, he had a little over 110 plated appearances each season and then was out of the majors as the Dodgers worked with him in the minors. This year, while he won’t have quite enough plate appearances to officially qualify, only players named Trout, Betts, JD Martinez and Yelich have a better OPS that Max Muncy. Speaking of Mookie Betts, he has taken his game to a new level this year by increasing his OPS by 276 points!
I can go on and on: Trevor Story, Justin Turner, Scooter Gennett, et al… some slowly figured it out and others did it seemingly overnight. That’s why I want to put some things in perspective. These guys aren’t machines and they can have good years, bad years and mediocre years. Sometimes they plateau for a while and then grow on… sometimes they plateau and fall back.
In 2016, the Giants signed Will Smith, who in his previous 4 years of major league service had almost a 5.00 ERA with Milwaukee and KC. He then had TJ Surgery and missed all of 2017, but now looks to be their closer for a while… unless he is traded… and he could be. Let me digress for a minute. If the Giants can’t beat the Dodgers on the field, maybe they will try and take them at the Front Office. No, I am not talking about the Giants taking that old dinosaur, Ned Colletti (won’t happen – they are also convinced about the new baseball paradigm). Andrew Friedman is not going anywhere, but Farhan Zaidi could be hired by the Giants to be their President of Baseball Operations. The Giants need to do a total rebuild, which means trading MadBum, Posey and just about any other asset like Will Smith… and Farhan could be the guy. It could be a homecoming of sorts for him to return to the other side of the bay.
I have been hard on Dave Roberts this year, but I do have to admit that most of the issues could have been eliminated with better execution by the players. That they have been poor when hitting with RISP is certainly true… and it frequently doesn’t matter who he rolls out there, Oh, we can blame it on the lineups, but it’s really the players… players who don’t always develop linearly.
Where Do the Dodgers Go From Here?
Let’s just get this over with: I want Dave Roberts and the Coaching Staff back next year. I am sorry if I doubted you earlier, Doc. I had been a big supporter of Doc’s in his first two years, but soured on him somewhat in 2018. I believe now that it was unfounded. I think Turner Ward’s work is also not done.
Speaking of Linear Progression: it has not been that way with Joc or Kike or the Wild Horse, but I don’t think anyone would be surprised if one, or all of those guys broke out big time. What about el Gasolino who has become el LightsOuto?
Some think that the Dodger’s front office had no “Plan.” No, they had a Plan. Yes! Oh, it was a bad Plan? I still like the plan. It’s just that the plan can’t always be executed for many reasons, most involving the players…and when teams do not execute plans, the fans want someone executed. I’ll save this for another day…
This season could have another month to go, but if it doesn’t, we will try and figure out why. In the meantime, the Dodgers are in the playoffs and can still win the division, and while the later is not in their hands, the Rockies will have to most likely beat Stephen Strasburg and Max Scherzer to win the division.
Last Night’s Win Was a Team Win
- Ryu is looking more like an Ace, even though he’s the #3 or #4. 1.97 ERA
- Brian Dozier still isn’t hitting, but took part in 4 of the 5 Dodger double plays.
- Kike 3-4 hitting leadoff.
- Turner with just one hit, but it was big!
- Manny with another big hit,
- Where would the Dodgers be without Yasmani Grandal, who hasn’t tired this year?
- Kenley looked confident in closing.
- That may have been Mad Bum’s last game as a Giant. His magical run is over. He’s just another “guy.”
- This team is built for the Post-Season and now they are there! It would still be nice to win the NL West!
R.I.P. Marty Balin, Co-founder of Jefferson Airplane (Starship), Singer and amazing songwriter.
Maybe this should be the Dodgers Theme Song for the Playoffs:
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Discussion (130)
Disagree, not disagreeable
Can’t believe how many Dodger fans are at AT&T Park
Someone told CK it is October…
So much for our Ace. That’s probably Doc’s fault too.
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It’s the same ole’ story, everywhere I go, I get slandered, liebeled, I hear words I never heard in the Bible…
Good to see playoff Kersh today! Haven’t seen him fail in an important game in a while now
Tampa bay is 88-72. Nice little season.
Well StL won, so we gota do it ourseves today, which I’m totally fine with! Let’s go get it
This Mikolas dude is dealing today for StL. Cards up 2-1 going the 8th.
Since AC brought up Davey Lopes, I thought I would put up his numbers in 1979, when he hit the most HRs, in his career.
In 1979 Lopes hit 28 HRs, and he had 73 RBIs, and scored 109 runs, and his OBP was 372.
And as everyone knows, Lopes was not a power hitter.
A.C.
If Bellinger isn’t on first, I prefer him in CF…
I have little use for Dozier, but he’s here…
The Fence post, I keep my fingers crossed…
M.T. Can’t win can we…
Mark:
Newsflash, they can hit with RISP despite the stats. FAZ and Roberts don’t think its important, so it is not emphasized.
The philosophy is win or loose with the long ball.
Move some of these guys to other teams and watch them hit with RISP if that is emphasized.
Management doesn’t care so therefore why should the players.
The lackluster play is a result of Roberts living in the doldrums and thinking all will be well, our talent will prevail in the end – Roberts forgot to tell that to Colorado.
Since Roberts is locked on batting Muncy/Freese third I will say that I like today’s lineup despite not liking dropping Machado to 4th. I hope I don’t see another game end with Machado on deck and Muncy striking out representing the tying run. He’s determined to go L/R/L/R all the way through the lineup so with that in mind I’m happy to see Puig/Grandal/Kike hitting 6-7-8.
I’m not so sure Dozier did anything spectacular on defense last night. There were 5 routine double play balls and Dozier made the play. He didn’t make any spectacular diving stops to save run. He made a play any 2b would make. Good for him for making the play, but I’m pretty sure CT3, or Kike or Utley would have made those plays as well. Would Muncy at 2b have made those? Not so sure on that one.
That said: I still didn’t like Dozier in last night, but I guess he made it up on defense.
I’ll give you my answer:
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The Dodgers have given up the least amount of runs in the NL and scored the most. By all accounts, they should have about 95 wins. But with RISP, they are the worst in baseball – That can’t be on Doc. It’s execution!
OK, I am going to play Devil’s Advocate here… because everyone agrees that Roberts is the Devil.
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Therefore, I must assume that when Roberts has one or nine lineup blunders, that’s the reason they can’t hit with RISP?
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What? Almost all of them can’t hit with RISP? That’s Doc’s fault for putting the wrong guys there?
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I think the manager makes a difference, but I have watched 71 games lost by the Dodgers and it was Roberts fault because he had the wrong lineup?
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Damn, last years team must have been a 135 win team for him to only get 104 wins out of them?
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Does the fact the Dodgers have a great lockerroom mean anything?
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By the way, there’s a lot to read on the subject if you Google “How many wins is a good manager worth a season?” Most people think it is 5 or 6, but nearly EVERY loss this year has been Doc’s fault?
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BTW, I loved Tommy and still do, but of any Dodger manager who has managed at least 480 games, Dave Roberts has the best winning percentage.
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So, choose your narrative wisely:
(1) Did FAZ give him a bad team?;
(2) Is he a bad Manager?
(3) Something else.
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Careful how you answer!
Mark, you were more right than wrong when you were calling for Roberts job. I am not talking about the lineups, I do believe the lineups are a combination of FAZ, and Roberts, and whatever Faz suggest I think Roberts being the perfect yes man is agreeing to.
My problem with Roberts is the way he handles the game once it starts, hitting or not hitting with men on base is not my issue with Roberts, not sending men in those situations to either bunt, hit to the opposite field, or just try for a sacrifice fly instead of swinging for the fences like any other at-bat is my problem with Roberts. How he handles both the starters and the bullpen is my problem with Roberts. When players are hot they should be playing every day, and if FAZ pays little attention to that Roberts should be screaming for the player or players to be in the lineup, but I think he goes along with what ever FAZ says. I’m still blaming him for the slow start at the start of the season for how he ran ST. The Dodgers win in spite of his managing not because of it.
Roberts has done nothing, Tommy L had that one right. With the talent on this team any decent manager would have
this team 10 games up. His lineups are horrid, his bullpen mismanagement is pathetic, his in-game strategy is consistently lacking, his seemingly calm demeanor screams for some sense of passion or urgency, OH, but he communicates real well. Great, repeat that one when he loses to Milwaukee if they even get that far.
He’ll probably be back, but not sure I can watch his brand of Dodger entertainment – its lifeless, and very boring.
Agree Rudy. Roberts proved that last year in the world series and throughout the season. How does Dozier start or even play at this point of the season? Over Bellinger, Muncy, Puig, Taylor or even Verdugo. I wouldn’t be surprised if Bellinger and his agent doesn’t go to management in the off season and find out if the Dodger front office wants to continue to restrict Bellinger’s playing time. If so, then I would expect him to ask for a trade. How does a rookie of the year winner not play everyday the next year? Sure his power numbers are down, but the inconsistent playing opportunities could have some to do with that. Regardless, he has improved as a overall hitter and with his gold glove abilities in the field it’s ridiculous that he doesn’t play everyday. Same with Muncy. I know his defensive limitations are an issue, but his bat more than makes up for it.
Here’s hoping this weekend the players excel so to limit Roberts opportunities to make another head scratching and incomprehensible decision that reduces the Dodger’s chances of getting into the playoffs.
I see that Madison Bumgarner (Hudson, NC) grew up 90 miles from the Seager brothers (Concord, NC) in NC. Kyle graduated HS 1 year before MadBum. I wonder if they ever played against each other. I know of a ton of guys that played with and against each other in the SF Valley. NC is a good baseball state, so maybe Bumgarner and Kyle Seager faced each other in some game (LL, Winter League, Summer Baseball, HS). Just curious. I know one winter my son played on the same team as Jeff Suppan and Randy Wolf in West Hills. Supp pitched 3 innings and my son was catcher and then the roles were reversed for the next 3 innings. Randy was more of a soccer player at the time and played CF. Just feeling nostalgic.
OK, I know Adam is lurking, so I’ll speak up… I’m confident as usual!!! I’m glad someone brought up the Classic line ” It ain’t over till it’s over “… Besides, I haven’t heard Dandy Don warming up the pipes… Great call on Doc and staff back by M.T.
Players play and managers manage…
Mark, the team may be built for the post-season but I’m afraid the manager isn’t.
I think we should save the “should have/could have” stuff for the offseason (whether that’s next week or next month). If we wind up losing a wild card play-in game or the wild card game itself, everyone here, justifiably so, will go thru every blown loss and figure out the “turning point” of our horrible season. I still remember Kenley’s 3 run blown save in April at AZ. But whatever. For now, I want to get in and see what we can do. If Colorado somehow gets swept in LA, but then goes on to win 10 in a row, what can we do??? Hell, if we win out in SF, we’d have gone 6-3 in that same span, which is a great record. Nothing we can do about them getting insanely hot.
For today, we have the Cards at 10am, Dodgers at 1pm, Braves at 4pm, and Rockies at 5pm. (Oh, and Fresno State vs Toledo at 7:30pm on ESPNU)
Tomorrow is fantastic; every single game in MLB starts at 12pm PST . Talk about potential scoreboard watching!!
Per MLB TradeRumors: “Though the season has been a disastrous one for the Rangers, the club is seeing some encouraging signs out of some young relievers late in the year, writes Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News. Jose Leclerc has been one of the best relievers on the planet over the past few months, allowing just two runs in a span of 32 2/3 innings dating back to June 20. In that time, the once-erratic Leclerc has turned in a phenomenal 51-to-11 K/BB ratio and allowed a mere 10 hits. ” Let’ s see. Jose Leclerc or John Axford and Zac Rosscup. Hmmm.
I am rooting for us to win the division, as the Brewers are scalding hot right now. But, it is what it is. I know some of you guys are still pissed about the one game Kike pitched, but that game didn’t screw us, losing two out of three to the Mets, getting our asses handed to us all season by the Reds, those are the ones that hurt.
One player that was available last winter but many considered him to be too average and not worthy of giving up Alex Verdugo, and had a meteoric rise this year, is Christian Yelich. Local OF that would have cost Verdugo and others to be sure, but then while Verdugo was playing a second year in OKC, Yelich was putting together a MVP season in Milwaukee. Yelich has an AAV of $7.081MM. There would not have been a luxury tax concern, and they would have had Yelich under contract for 4 years with an option for a 5th. The Brewers gave up Lewis Brinson (OF) who had a miserable year this year for Miami, and Monte Harrison (OF), Isan Diaz (2B), and Jordan Yamamoto (RHP). Brinson is 2 years older than Verdugo. My guess is that FAZ could have whet the Marlins appetite with Verdugo, Diaz, Estevez, and Alvarez. With Yelich being LH, Miami may have taken Joc instead of Diaz. This is not hind sight. I said the same thing last winter, and I still believe the Dodgers could have made that trade. Instead Verdugo still waits for a chance that may not come with the Dodgers, Diaz was included in a trade for a rental, Estevez spent his 2nd year at RC and Alvarez went backwards. But then again, maybe Doc platoons Yelich with Kemp instead of just letting Yelich play.
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Sure, the Dodgers would not have been able to get Machado without Diaz. Oh well. They still would have had Dean Kremer and Zach Pop and Rylan Bannon.
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I still believe the Dodgers could have traded for one of two players last year that would have given them home field advantage in the NL playoffs…Christian Yelich and Gerrit Cole. They could not have traded for both, but they could have put together a package for one of the two. Okay they could have traded for both, but they would not have. Cole would have been under contract for two years (both arbitration). His AAV in 2018 was $6.75MM, also not a luxury tax threshold breaker. But instead FAZ went for Scott Alexander believing that Alexander, Yimi Garcia, and Tony Cingrani would be more than enough to form a bridge to Jansen. How did that and 26 blown saves work out? I do not count Kemp because that was strictly for luxury tax purposes. FAZ admitted that they wanted to move Kemp again.
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If the Giants want Zaidi, I will not shed a tear, or have one sleepless night wondering how the Dodgers can move forward without him. The Dodgers would be better served without having a yes man for Friedman. Someone needs to challenge his thought process. Someone who has true scouting capabilities.
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I have no doubt that Doc Roberts will be back. He would not be my preference. Does the team really need a third yes man? Is the team really better with Bellinger platooning? What other manager would platoon Bellinger? Is he going to platoon Seager next year? His lineup worked last night because the one pure hitter on the team got the big hit. Without JT, the Dodgers probably lose it in the 16th with Kike’ on the mound. What other manager would have Dozier in over Puig and Bellinger? Quite honestly, I would rather have Bob Geren as the manager. Of course, I was a fan of Geren when he was the Sacramento River Cats manager in 2000-2002.
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Good for Kike’ having another great night against MadBum. While it should have been MadBum’s last game as a Giant, I am not sure that the Giants have the brain power to deduce that. It is time for a tear down for them, but they will probably have the mentality that they have another year in the hunt with their nucleus.
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Today is a big game for Kershaw. Can he win a must win game? Joc will be leading off again today and maybe he will break Lopes’ record for most leadoff jacks in a season. The Cardinals will be going with their best pitchers the next two games against the Cubs (Mikolas and Flaherty), so Kershaw’s game today is huge so that the Dodgers can go into the WC with Buehler and not Hill.
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Mark, I am glad you are back. It is so much easier to respond than to create.