Patience or Attack

We are only four games into the season, and the sniping at Doc is already in full gear.  Not just from LADT commenters, but throughout the Dodgers blogosphere.  Every manager makes horrible decisions throughout the season, and sometimes they actually make some good calls.  Of course, nobody likes to comment on those. 

Now maybe some of these decisions are not Doc’s alone.  It seems to be a team philosophy to drive the pitch count up rather than attacking the first strike.  Often times the first pitch is the best pitch a batter is going to see, especially if it is a strike.  Mookie is getting a lot of 1^st pitch strikes thrown.  Mookie has also not been a very prolific hitter swinging and hitting the first pitch.  He appears to be a prototypical leadoff guy waiting out the pitcher.  He swings at the first pitch less than 8% of the time.  Also interesting to note is that Mookie has hit more HR’s in those 8% than on any other count.  Just like any mortal hitter, Mookie is very pedestrian once the count gets to 0-2 or 1-2 or even 2-2.  But he is so prolific after getting ahead or even 0-1, that he more than makes up for it.  Mookie taking first pitch is more about Mookie than it is organizational.  Mookie has not seen NL pitchers very much, so it is going to be a learning curve for him.  We just need to be patient, and let Mookie get comfortable.  He will hit.  He always has.

Max Muncy seems to have somewhat the same pattern.  He hits the first pitch a little more than 8%.  But once Max gets 2 strikes, he becomes a very bad hitter.  Just like Mookie, Max is a very good hitter with 0 or 1 strikes.  As was brought up yesterday, Max is a very streaky hitter, but has been very productive for the past two years, so again patience seems to be the best medicine here.

Contrarily, Corey Seager is hitting the first pitch 18.4% of the time, with impressive results.  .404/.410/.648/1059 on 344 AB.  And just like all hitters he is not nearly as productive with two strikes.  But he is much more prolific swinging early in the count than either Mookie or Max.

Other Dodger hitters on swinging and hitting 1^st pitch seen:

• Belli – 9.8%
• JT – 10.7%
• Joc – 9.5%
• CT3 – 12.2%
• AJ – 11.8%
• Kike’ – 9.3%

I have not done any kind of research to see what other teams do with 1^st pitch.  But other than Corey, most Dodgers are not nearly as aggressive on the 1^st pitch.  I do know the Dodgers do like to build up pitch counts, but I do not pretend to claim that it is an organizational philosophy to not be as aggressive as Corey Seager on 1^st pitch seen.  Dodgers hitters are looking to attack mistakes, but with at least 1-0.  They are looking for 1^st pitch ball, and then they can dominate.  I also recognize that Seager was getting as much grief when he was not hitting because he was too aggressive while the other hitters were being more patient.  Sometimes you just cannot win.  In baseball, when success in hitting is measured by being successful in 30% of their AB’s, much more can go wrong than can go right, and fans love to pounce on that (me included).

Apparently the swing at the 1^st pitch is contrary to the analytics community, which seems to be driving some (most) of these decisions.  See article below on a more comprehensive review of 1^st pitch hitting:

https://www.royalsreview.com/2018/9/11/17819626/first-pitch-swing-strike-ball-lee-judge

So it would appear that teams are pushing for patience to take the 1^st pitch, and “hoping” the pitcher throws a ball.

However, I do see Doc making multiple mistakes with game strategy, as I do believe he did with leaving Kike’ in to bat in the 8^th inning of Game 3 and Game 4 with the bases loaded.  But does he make more than other managers?  Again it is easy to look back and determine that Doc made a mistake, but what would another manager do in that same situation?  We can never adequately answer that question.  I know many would surmise that a “better” manager would have PH Matt Beaty in that critical 8^th inning AB of both games, and Beaty would have hit a bases clearing double to take the lead.  Of course he would. If we were managing the team, the Dodgers would be 4-0.

Where I think that Doc has garnered his most criticism is in his stubbornness on staying with a player too long or using the same strategy over and over with little if any change in the results.  Doc is a players’ manager and he seems to do whatever is necessary to prove that a player belongs in a specific situation every time.  He did it with Pedro Baez when he was labeled El Gasolino by our own Dodgerrick.  He stuck with CT3 as the leadoff when his OBP was hovering .250.  He continued to trot out Joc to 1B even though it was obvious to everyone (including Joc) that he did not belong at 1B.  Maybe if he worked on it all winter with a 1B coach he could become a decent 1B, but during the season?  Most everyone believes that Kike’ is a super utility player (me included), but he has never shown that he is an everyday player, and yet he continues to get that chance.  This reliance on L-R-L-R is maddening, but he (and probably AF) believes it to be the best strategy.  Okay I am not a ML manager so why even consider my opinion.  But try something different every once in a while to see if there might be a difference. It’s only been 32 years since the last championship. Even my patience is growing thin.

I have no idea who would be a better manager, but it is obvious that we are all better than Doc AFTER the fact.  Doc’s decisions are more than fair game.  He gets paid a lot of money to manage an elite MLB team. I am sure he anticipates a lot of negativity when the Dodgers lose, and he will continue to get more than his share. I will say this, Doc may be managing an elite team, but he cannot be considered an elite manager until he wins the postseason. Even then, it will be, “but that was before, what about now?”

Count me in as one who wanted Corey Kluber.  It appears that I would have been acquiring damaged goods.  Once again, AF has proven that he is a far better baseball evaluator than I am. I know there are those out there who believe they are better, and yet they still sit here on a blog while AF continues to be employed in MLB.  Just like Doc, AF is fair game for criticism, and while he has made mistakes, his pluses far outweigh his negatives. With respect to Kluber, I think the Rangers will find a better way to spend $18MM next year, and will choose to buyout Kluber’s 2021 option at $1MM.  Pitcher’s shoulders, elbows, and backs are fragile making it very difficult to spend large dollars over long term on FA pitchers.  What will teams be willing to pay next year for James Paxton (at 32), Robbie Ray (at 29), and Marcus Stroman (at 30), perhaps the three best FA starting pitchers next winter? 

Tuesday starts the beginning of a 9 game three city road trip.  Game 1 is Walker Buehler vs 26 year old Dominican LHP Framber Valdez.  Dustin May goes in Game 2, vs TBD.  Per the transaction list, CK was placed on the 10 day IL on July 23.  He should be eligible to come off the IL on Sunday, August 2 against the DBacks, or any of the three Padres games.

I know it is a 60 game sprint, but maybe we should have a little more patience.  Here is where I would embed a youtube video of Guns N Roses, singing Patience, but that particular video is really not appropriate, so we are going to have to have some patience for another musical interlude as well.