Organizational Failure

If you have been around baseball for as long as I have (and many of you have been around it longer), if a team won the NL or AL Pennant, they played the winner of the opposite league in the World Series. Then, if they won four games in that series, they were declared World Champion. Simple! They were the best team in baseball that season. It was simple. It was clear. It’s not that way anymore!

Now, if you win the division, you have to sit out for a week while the Wild Card teams play a best-of-three series. Then, as a Division Winner, you play a five-game series before you play the Division Championship Series, which is before you play for the World Championship. So, unlike the “good old days,” there are a lot more variables, and the playoffs are more of a crapshoot than ever before. However, it does not mean that you can’t evolve and still win. That is exactly what we are talking about. What can the Dodgers do to improve in the playoffs?

Andrew Friedman called it an “organizational failure,” and I agree with that. Organizational failure is a significant inefficiency, misdeed, strategic misstep, or failure to manage risk that results in the deterioration or collapse of an organization. The question is: Where do the Dodgers go from here, and what can they do to prevent it from happening again?

I am going to prove that analytics may be at fault. “What? That is heresy!” Yes, the Dodgers use analytics as much or more than any other team. Analytics work! They work over a long season. “X player does not hit RHP well, so we try to limit his exposure against RHP.” Analytics work, but they work in large samplings. If you flip a coin five times, it may end up heads four times, but over 162 times, it will likely be close to 50/50. However, what works in the 162 may not work in five games. Do you get where I am going with this?

Over the 162, analytics win EVERY TIME, but in a short sampling, it is not as apparent. Crapshoot may not be the right word, but Andrew Friedman explained why things happen randomly and what can be done to correct that. It should not be lost on any of us that no team has ever won back-to-back World Championships for 23 years. It is harder than ever before – that is a fact. There is more talent than ever before, more scouting and analytics than ever before. There are more competitors than ever before. It is harder than ever before to win a World Championship.

Here’s the interview with Andrew Friedman and Brandon Gomes, and it should be noted that Andrew took ultimate responsibility for the organizational failure.

There are things they will do differently next year… especially in the realm of keeping batters sharp, but who knows… maybe next year they will be a Wild Card and win from that spot. All the teams left this season are Wild Cards… except one. Don’t tell me it’s not a crapshoot! However, if you want wrapped up, simple, tidy, and pat answers… there ain’t none! It’s complicated!

The hitters failed to hit in the playoffs against the Padres last year and the Diamondbacks this year. Was the layoff responsible? Of course, it was, but it is not an excuse. It will likely be the same way next year, so the Dodgers had better figure out something… like maybe dividing up into two teams and having a best-of-five “playoff.” That may be a simple fix. In fact, I am surprised they did not do that this year. They did play one scrimmage game, but that was it.

The pitching failure, namely the starting pitching failure was a total debacle that, unless Friedman wanted to gut the farm, could not be easily fixed. You can spin it all you want, however you want, but Dustin May was back after TJ (Wheeler had TJ and came back a few years ago), Julio Urias had just completed his second dominant season and was the staff ace. Kershaw was expected to win 12-15 games (which he did), and Ryan Pepiot was ready to take the next step. The Catman was a question mark, but he was only needed as a #5. Thor was the question mark, but he seemed like a worthy option… until he proved that you can’t fix stupid! The Dodgers had a plethora of youngsters close to ready. What could go wrong? Only everything! Friedman could not have imagined in his wildest nightmares what would happen next:

• Thor thought the Dodgers could help him regain his 101 MPH fastball and pitched like he still had it;
• Dustin May’s arm blew up early;
• Tony Gonsolin’s arm blew up later;
• Kershaw’s shoulder limited his pitching in the second half to just a few innings;
• Ryan Pepoit had an oblique injury for most of the season;
• The rookies showed promise, especially Bobby Miller, but other than Bobby, they were not ready: and
• Julio Urias came out of the gate pitching like an AA pitcher and then turned his wife into a punching bag (allegedly).

Andrew Friedman and Brandon Gomes could not fix all of that, and nor should they have gutted the system to try. Stuff happens. Yesterday, it was mentioned that Jerry Dipoto made a good trade in getting Luis Castillo. It was one of the few good ones he has made, as he is on the hot seat in Seattle. However, in defense of Friedman, it was rumored that #1. Castillo was damaged goods with arm issues. #2. The Mariners wanted Ryan Pepiot, James Outman, and Kyle Hurt. Bobby Miller’s name was in the mix as well.

Last year’s pitching disaster is behind them, and the Dodgers have a clear path to their own starters. Friedman will swing a trade or two and make a free agent signing or two to build back depth. It is my opinion that Clayton will not pitch in 2024. Neither will Tony Gonsolin and Dustin May and Walker Buehler is a question mark… to be determined in the Spring. Pepioty, Miller, and Sheehan look ready and Gavin Stone could be. Nick Frasso is not far behind as is Landon Knack. Also, watch out for Kyle Hurt as a multi-inning lockdown reliever. Maybe Andrew Friedman should have gutted the farm… but he didn’t and I for one, am glad. Let’s get ’em next year!

Arizona Fall League

• Damon Keith went 1-5 with an RBI and three strikeouts.
• Kendall Williams started and went four innings, allowing three hits and two earned runs. He did not walk a batter and struck out three.
• Ben Casparius pitched one inning and allowed one hit, three BBs, and two ERs.
• Ryan Sublette pitched a clean inning, striking out two.

You can never be sure what these guys are working on.