No Bull About the Pen

It’s no secret that my “real job” is US Water Systems. I am in the water treatment business and am frequently consulted on water quality issues. Frequently, people with bad, nasty, smelly, well water ask me if I think they should drill a new well. I always remind them that if they drill a new well, they should expect one of three outcomes:

1. You will get better water;
2. You will get worse water; or
3. You will get the same water.

Drilling a new well to fix your bad water problems only delivers a 33% chance of success. The odds are greater than you will get worse water or the same water. Where am I going with this? Here’s my point: Relievers are like wells. Whether a relief pitcher was good, bad, or mediocre one season is no guarantee of what he will be next season. They will either be better, the same, or worse.

The Dodgers recently re-signed Blake Treinen, as Andrew Friedman continues to collect bullpen pieces. Let’s look at the State of the Dodgers’ Bullpen with an eye to whether each pitcher might, be better, worse, or the same as last year. After the pitcher’s name, I will have an indication of what I think that either is, either an HL (high leverage) or BP (bullpen piece). It all starts with the Dodgers $20 Million Dollar Man:

Kenley Jansen (HL)

As much as Kenley Jansen has been belittled, berated, spindled, mutilated, and skewered, one might think that he was 0-8 with a 6.55 ERA and 12 blown saves in 2020. In reality, he was 3-1 with a 3.33 ERA. He was the National League Bullpen Pitcher of the Month in August. In July and August, he had a 1.54 ERA and an 0.77 WHIP. In October and November, he had a 6.52 ERA and a 1.655 WHIP. Did he suddenly “lose it,” or did he just get messed up with his mechanics? It is my opinion that he put too much pressure on himself and that messed up his mechanics. We saw him still be able to hit 97 MPH at times, but his cutter really doesn’t depend upon velocity.

In the famous words of Marty Lamb: “If he did it once, he could do it again.” I’ll give you 20 Million Reasons why Kenley Jansen will start the season as the Dodgers’ closer… well, I think you already know what that is. Relievers are notoriously unpredictable. In 2016, Craig Kimbrel had a 3.40 ERA/1.094 WHIP but followed that up with a 1.43 ERA/.0681 WHIP in 2017 and a 2.74 ERA/.0995 WHIP in 2018, before his wheels fell off in 2019 and 2020. Will Kenley be better, worse, or the same in 2021?

PREDICTION: Kenley would like another contract as 2021 is the last of his current deal. When he arrives for Spring Training, I think we might have a clue by observing what kind of shape he is in. I lean to the side that Kenley will be the same to maybe better in 2021, but he wasn’t all that bad in 2020… except for a few times.

Corey Knebel (HL)

Corey had a cup of coffee with Detroit in 2014 and then in 2015 and 2016 was just a piece of the Milwaukee pen. However, in 2017, he stepped in as Milwaukee’s closer and had a 1.74 ERA and saved 39 games. In 76 IP he allowed 48 Hits and struck out 126. In Spring Training of 2019, he tore his UCL and had Tommy John (who should be in the HOF) surgery. By the way, TJ is in the hospital with COVID-19 – Get well TJ!

He came back in 2020 and had a few setbacks as is expected with TJ Surgery. He only pitched 13 innings and had a 6.08 ERA. In September of 2020, the Milwaukee Journal-Sentential reported this:

“Not only did Knebel throw 20 of 29 pitches for strikes, the velocity on his fastball was pre-surgery vintage. He hit 97 mph with several pitches and sat consistently at 96 mph, a level he had not displayed previously while on the comeback trail after missing all of the ’19 season.”

It takes a year or two for a pitcher to fully recover from Tommy John, both mentally and physically. Sometimes they are so focused on rehabbing their arms that they may neglect their bodies and that is what happen to Corey in 2020. He had nagging injuries, including hamstring problems. That is in the rearview mirror.

Prediction: By all indications, Corey Knebel is healthy and ready to resume a high-leverage position in the Dodgers bullpen. He will definitely be better than he was last year. The only question is whether he will re-claim his 2018 status. It could be close, and even if he doesn’t regain his 2018 ability, I think he will pretty dang good! He’s 29 and if he has a great year, he will get a great payday in 2022.

Blake Treinen (HL)

The fact that the Dodgers brought Blake Treinen back at about $9 Million a year should tell you that Liam Hendriks is going to get paid a whole lot more, and therefore will not be a LA Dodger. Based upon what Treinen is making over two years, I would expect Hendriks to get 4 years at over $50 Million. The Dodgers won’t pay him that, nor will they likely dole out another big contract as they gave to Kenley Jansen.

Blake Treinen was not elite by any means, in 2020, but he was very solid. He had a 3.86 ERA and a 1.206 WHIP – OK, but not great. Much like Kenley Jansen, he had a 1.59 ERA in July and August and then a 7.69 ERA in August and September. His velocity was great, but his strikeout rate has dropped a lot. He is almost more of a “groundball pitcher” now… which is not a bad thing. I also think that the Dodgers pitching staff think they can build on 2020 and maybe he can return to his 2018 form in 2021.

Prediction: I think Blake will put up number equal to or most likely better than he did in 2020. It’s a good signing – Blake knows how to pitch and often times a little tweak is all it takes to go from “good” to “great.” I think Blake Treinen’s stock is on the rise.

Brandon Morrow (HL)

I never thought I would be writing about Brandon Morrow again. He never pitched in 2019 and 2020, because of injuries, but look at his ERA’s from 2015 to 2018:

• 2015 – 2.73
• 2016 – 1.69
• 2017 – 2.06
• 2018 – 1.47

It’s really simple: If Brandon Morrow is healthy, he is very, very good! When he’s not healthy, he is not a factor. He has had elbow, calf and shoulder injuries the past two years and is allegedly healthy now. He will be 37 in July and this is likely his last dance.

Prediction: Here’s my prediction: I have no idea! Either he will be the same as he was in 2018 and 2019 (injured) or he will be “lights out” for one final season. I know what I hope for, but only time will tell.

Scott Alexander (BP)

Scott Alexander may be the most underappreciated pitcher in baseball, let alone on the Dodgers team. In 6 MLB seasons (or parts thereof), he has never had an ERA above 3.68 (except for his rookie year at 4.50 in 6 IP). For his career, he has a 12-7 record with a 3.18 ERA. He is a groundball pitcher so he gives up some hits, but in 6 years he has only given up 12 HR.

Like Brandon Morrow, Scott Alexander is a diabetic which adds another layer of problems, but like Morrow, he is determined to continue so I have to respect his resolve.

Prediction: Scott Alexander will be what he has always been (when healthy): A solid piece (not high leverage) in the LA Dodgers Bullpen.

Victor Gonzalez (HL)

V-Gon had an excellent rookie season and followed that up with a very good playoff run. In his rookie COVID-19 year, Victor had a 3-0 record with a 1.33 ERA and a 0.738 WHIP. That’s pretty astounding! Victor has some filthy stuff and could possibly even be a closer some day… maybe sooner than later.

His confidence has been a problem in the past and hopefully is has been boosted with what he did in 2020. V-Gon is a very good pitcher and shoudl only get better as he is still 25 years-old.

Prediction: Victor is a high leverage bullpen option and could someday become a closer!

Brusdar Graterol (HL)

I will anoint Bazooka the next Dodger Closer, as soon as he learns more about pitching. His pitching arsenal is illegal in 47 states – he just needs to learn how to utilize it. Whether that is in 2021 or 2022, he will be the Dodgers’ closer at some point. I think Bazooka will play a big role in the Dodgers’ bullpen in 2021 and beyond. I think he will close a few games in 2021, but 2022 seems to be the year he takes over that spot.

Prediction: He is certainly on the side of being better than last year. It will be fun to see him grow into his new role.

Dylan Floro (BP)

Dylan was 3-0 with a 2.59 ERA last year and has a career ERA of 3.33. He is a very useful part of the bullpen has very solid stuff. When he puts it together, he is almost a high leverage reliever.

Prediction: Count on him to do what he does.

Garrett Cleavinger (BP)

Most fans don’t know what to think of Cleavinger. He’s a left-hander and has a fastball that is in the 94-95 MPH range. I know that some scouts are very high on him, but I have no opinion. I will defer to Andrew Friedman and his staff of evaluators, who traded for him.

Prediction: No clue!

Joe Kelly (BP)

Joe Kelly is a conundrum – he is also like a box of chocolates in that you never know what you might get. I had high hope when the Dodgers signed him as they thought they could “fix him.” They couldn’t! He was thought to be a high leverage guy when they signed him. He was of the low leverage ilk.

Prediction: He will be worse, better or the same as last year! Push me and I will say that if I had to bet… he will be released. I hope not because the Dodgers could use his arm.

Adam Kolarek (BP)

He was once regarded as a LOOGY but has morphed into a nice bullpen part. I would not classify him as high leverage, but he is very useful. He is 11-3 with a career ERA of 3.32, but in 2020, he had an ERA of .095 and a WHIP of o.789. That dog will hunt.

Prediction: He will not be as good as 2020, but will be a solid piece and a part of the Dodger bullpen.

Three More…

The above predictions covered eleven players who are bullpen pieces. It doe not include Julio Urias, Dustin May, Tony Gonsolin… two of whom will likely be in the bullpen and any of those will be STRONG ASSETS for the bullpen. Additionally, that is not all…

But, Wait… There is More!

Don’t forget to add in non-roster invitees: Asuaje, Schwaab, Pazos, Morrow (already discussed), and Jimmy Nelson. Then there are Uceta, Carrillo, White, Santana, Miller, Beeter, Grove, Pepiot, and Gray. None of them may be ready, but some also could be ready.

Conclusion

Someone said that Friedman could be “building a super bullpen.” HELLO! It is already done! Hendriks or Hand or Archer or Kluber are not coming… unless they want to take a Minor League Deal. This bullpen is loaded! Watch out, everyone! There is strength in numbers. Half of the pitchers mentioned could get injured and the Dodgers still might have the best bullpen in baseball – Remember past records are no guarantee of future performance. You will get the same performance, better performance, or worse performance.

Marty Robbins – American Icon