My Current Dodger Observations

First, to Badger.  I love trade scenarios.  I do not care how outlandish they are or how realistic they may be.  I enjoy reading Bums trade proposals.  I am not sure that I ever read one that was realistic, but they are fun.  Bluto sometimes gives us scenarios from the baseballtradevalues.com site.  They are fun for me.  That is what blogs are for.  Throw out ideas.  To the best of my knowledge, none of us have ever been a GM for any professional organization.  We have no idea how to value players.  It gets harder when Dodger fans start grading Dodgers and think all of the prospects will become the next Mickey Mantle, Roy Campanella, or Sandy Koufax. A 41 year old DH generates a return of two top 17 ML ready pitchers from the deepest and best farm system in MLB.  A much younger JD Martinez does not get anything close to that.  Nolan Arenado gets moved for what?  So for me, keep the trade proposals coming.  BTW, I did not think that Blake Harris’ proposal was realistic, but I do not think he believed it was either.  But it did get noticed.

Here are a couple of proposals from the baseballtradevalues.com

●Padres get Josh Bell and Max Scherzer from Washington for Ryan Weathers.

●Blue Jays get Tyler Anderson and Richard Rodriguez from Pittsburgh for Dasan Brown (#14), Miguel Hiraldo (#7), and C.J. Van Eyk (#9)

●Cubs get Sean Hjele (#11), Jairo Pomares (#14), and Esmerlin Vincio (not ranked – in SFG ACL) from SFG for Craig Kimbrel

●LAA gets Braden Bishop (#4) from SFG for Tony Watson

Are they any more realistic or outlandish than Blake’s?  To some yes, to others no.

Second, the Trevor Bauer saga has gone on long enough.  MLB needs to s*** or get off the pot.  Suspend without pay or allow him to return to LAD without any more paid vacations.  The LAD front office needs to go directly to Manfred and tell the as***** to make a decision.  If he is suspended for the rest of the year, AF can react to that.  But if they continue to hold off until August or September, it would be too late to respond.  I was not happy with the signing for two reasons, NONE being due to his social media issues.  I could care less about that.  $102MM for a three years was an outlandish amount of $$$$ to spend on a pitcher with a career ERA north of 3.8 and a career WHIP north of 1.243, and for Eric an OPS of .671 against RHB and .728 against LHB.  That does not scream best pitcher in MLB, and yet he was being paid as one.  But my real hangup has always been his character.  Again not due to his social media.  I will let Molly Knight, Pedro Moura, and Bill Plaschke have that arena.  No, my rationale was born on July 28, 2019 when he threw the baseball over the CF fence at KC because Tito Francona was coming out to get him.  When Francona got there, he looked at Bauer and asked “What is wrong with you!”  Yes, Bauer apologized, but no pitcher before or since has done anything like that…only Trevor Bauer.  To me, he was and is a loose cannon.  Guilty or not, is anyone really surprised at his lack of judgment in his latest escapade?  At the very least this has been a huge distraction, and could be somewhat of a paralyzing issue for AF waiting for a decision to come down.  That is my one and only comment on Trevor Bauer.  BTW – LAD is 8-9 since July 3, his first suspension date. Coincidence?  Other more meaningful reasons?  Perhaps, but that is their record since.  One more thing, July 3 was KJ’s last save.

Third, there is no doubt that the Dodgers have been snake bit.  Mookie has not been right all year.  Neither has Belli.  Seager has been out longer than anticipated (58 games and counting).  Dustin May out for the year.  Tony Gonsolin has been out most of the year due to injury, and he still looks hurt. While not out as long, VGon also still looks to be hurt. Edwin Rios (key bench piece) out for the year.  Jimmy Nelson and Corey Knebel continue to be fragile (who would have thunk it).  Add Clayton Kershaw to that dilemma.  Max Muncy and JT out for extended periods of time.  Gavin Lux still not ready for prime time.  Brusdar Graterol was too busy enjoying a WS victory to work on his body and pitching over the Winter.  Joe Kelly has had the cyst removed, but he still cannot stay on the field.  He is apparently out again with arm soreness.  He has 24.2 IP after 99 games.  After a great run, KJ has reverted back to where he has been since the 2017 NLCS.  I fear this is who he is.  Although he pitched well last night. Now do not let him pitch on Sunday. The “LAD depth” was a bit overhyped.  The AAAA players are just not ready and may never be. 

From the WS roster, the Dodgers have lost: Alex Wood, Jake McGee, Dylan Floro, Adam Kolarek, Pedro Baez, Joc Pederson and Kike Hernandez.  That does not include Dustin May or Edwin Rios.  The playoff Adam Kolarek may not be missed, but he was very good during the season (0.95 ERA and 0.789 WHIP).  I know Eric doesn’t miss him.  LAD may not be reigning WS champs without Dylan Floro in Game 6.  His 3 pitch K against Randy Arozarena might have saved Game 6.  

Joctober – .400/.400/.400/.800 against SD in NLDS, .389/.421/.556/.977 against ATL in NLCS, and .400/.500/.700/1.200 against TB in WS.  Who replaces that?

Kike’ in the critical Atlanta NLCS series – .308/.357/.769/1.126 with two very key HRs.

Outside of Julio Urias, maybe the most reliable reliever LAD had was Alex Wood.  In the WS, 2 games, 4.0 IP, 2 H, 1 BB, 5 K, Zero runs.  Game 6 he was perfect for 2.0 innings with 3 K.

Current LAD replacements:  Phil Bickford, Josiah Gray, Jimmy Sherfy, David Price, Alex Vesia, Albert Pujols, Billy McKinney, Zach McKinstry, and Luke Raley. I have no problem if AF wants to move Floro and Kolarek, and not re-sign Wood, Baez, and McGee. But don’t replace them with Cleavinger, Vesia, and ???  Might as well bring back  Erik Goeddel, JT Chargois, and Zac Rosscup.

AF decided to stay with the roster as it was.  There was no Plan B.  Well, maybe there was and that is what we as fans are now experiencing.  KJ was not the closer in the playoffs.  That was Julio.  Everyone seems to remember Game 6 in the WS.  I also remember Game 7 in the NLCS.  He comes in with the game tied at 3.  Belli hits a key HR in the top of 7 to get the Dodgers up 4-3, and Julio holds ATL for 3.0 IP with zero baserunners for the win.  Just like in Game 6 of the WS, Julio was not replaced by KJ.  Morrow was the go to guy in 2017.  2018 it was ??? In 2019, it was Maeda (and Clayton).  In 2020, it was Julio.  AF and Doc had to believe that KJ was about thru, why did they not address the closer role during the winter? 

LAD is replacing Wood, McGee, Floro, Kolarek, Baez, and May with Bickford, Sherfy, Nunez, Price, Gray Vesia, and Cleavinger (or combination thereof).  That is a lot of experience exchanged for journeymen and rookies.  Joctober and Kike’ are replaced by Albert, McKinney, McKinstry, and now Raley.  Neuse will be back at OKC once Max is back.  How many GM’s would take Albert, McKinney, McKinstry, and Raley over Joc and Kike’?  I know I am not a GM, but I wouldn’t.

Yes, LAD has suffered a lot of injuries.  So have other teams.  SFG just won 3 out 4 against LAD at Dodger Stadium without any of their regular infielders.  The Padres have lost 1,611 days on the IL in 2021.  SD is followed by:

Tampa Bay – 1,354

SFG – 1,267

Toronto – 1,223

NYM – 1,205

Seattle – 1,175

LAD – 1,106

Houston – 1,092

Tampa Bay is not wasting time, and have already made a couple of deals, one which should help them immensely this year (Boomstick). They also made one earlier in May with moving Willy Adames for a couple of relievers.  FWIW, Adames is hitting .297/.388/.549/.937 with 11 HRs for Milwaukee.  In 54 games he has a 2.7 bWAR for Milwaukee.  He has made a huge difference for the Brewers.   

AFTER Saturday’s games, Tampa Bay is tied with Boston and Houston with the 2nd best record in MLB. LAD now has the 5th best record behind SFG, Boston, Houston, and Tampa Bay,   CWS is a game back , Milwaukee is 1.5 games back, and SD is 2.5 games back.  Every one of those teams are discussing making significant changes by next week. Even Oakland is rumored to be very much in on Trevor Story, as is CWS and NYY.  While I do not expect to read about any serious LAD trade rumor stories, the one that does not seem to go away is Ian Kennedy.  For me, that is a good start, but no where near what that bullpen needs.

I still have zero objection to Billy McKinney.  He is emergency only.  He is not expected to be a difference maker.  I have no problem with tinkering with the 26^th man.

Fourth – Do the Dodgers stand pat hoping for their injured players to come back.  If Mookie’s hip is injured, it is improbable that he will be healthy for the remainder of the season.  Belli missed 10 games with the last hammy issue.  How many on this one.  With Mookie, Seager, Lux, and Belli out, and Max unavailable, where does CT3 play?

Can the Dodgers win it all without a healthy Mookie, Seager, Belli, Lux, and Kershaw and no Bauer?  I would guess not.  But should that stop AF from at least trying to improve the team.  The Dodgers already have a $262MM 40 man payroll.  They are $52MM over the threshold, and an approximate $20MM in luxury tax.  What’s a few more million amongst us fans?  Regardless, AF should not just accept a WC game.  At least go out trying to win it all.  I do not know what that entails, but at least plug a couple of holes with top tier relievers (1-2-3-4) and a mid-rotation starting pitcher.  What would be the cost be for Kimbrel, Iglesias (rental), Kennedy (rental), and Miley.  Kimbrel and Miley both have 2022 options. I am guessing that AF will make an “effort” for Kimbrel, but settle for Kennedy.  I like Kendall Graveman, but Seattle is hanging in there and will want to scalp LAD or any other team. For a starter, I am guessing that he is looking more at Tyler Anderson over Miley, Davies, Berrios, or Scherzer.

Fifth – Development team. I keep hearing about how great the LAD development team is.  I know I have parroted that comment.  Then,

●Why can’t any of the Dodger pitchers hold runners on base? Although I did see some throws to 1B last night.

●Why can’t any of the Dodger pitchers bunt?

●Why do the middle infielders have to be told to stretch at 2B?

●Why was Max 30 feet from McKinney on a cutoff?

●Outside of Jo Jo Gray, who are the top to mid rotation pitching prospects at OKC or Tulsa?  Mitch White, Andre Jackson, and Ryan Pepiot are the only ones I would consider potential ML starters, and maybe Pepiot has mid-rotation potential.  White is 26, and Jackson is 25.  Both figure to be relievers more than starters.  I like Jackson as a potential late inning high leverage reliever, but not this year.  Make the conversion.  Gerardo Carrillo is starting at Tulsa, but his future role will probably be as a reliever as well. 

●Has Gavin Lux stalled?

●What has happened to Michael Grove and John Rooney?  Maybe that development team should make Grove a 2-pitch reliever now instead of trying to make him a starter.  Maybe Rooney should join the development team and teach the pitchers a pick off move.  He has a good one.

●Why are Bobby Miller, Clayton Beeter, and Landon Knack being held at A+?  Beeter appears as if he is being groomed as an opener.  He has started 17 games but has never pitched more than 2 innings (2.0 IP in 5 of the 17 GS).

●What OF or middle infielder at OKC or Tulsa looks to be a regular in a future championship level LAD lineup.  Even one of my favorites, Jacob Amaya, is now being touted as a future defense first utility player by the many talent evaluators.

●Why do the prospects seem to stall at AA.  Look at the OKC roster, outside of Keibert Ruiz, what player/pitcher figures to be a prominent player in a LAD championship level roster.  Mitch White, Edwin Uceta, and Darrien Nunez can be relievers, but not this year, and not as high leverage relievers.

I do not blame the Dodgers FO, because where they have been drafting, the talent pool thins out fast.  I mentioned in my post on Friday that LAD is considered to have better tier 2 level players, but not enough elite.  That is starting to manifest at the ML level, and it is only going to become more noticeable in the next few years. 

The Clayton Kershaw window is closing, and the chances of Corey Seager returning next year are 50/50 at best.  If NYY wants him, then that is where he will sign.  Boras always directs his players to the $$$$.  I accept that.  But what is hard to accept is the 2021 draft. 

As I indicated at the time, I believed that the Dodgers drafted total projects they could try to develop and underslot their bonus.  Thus far, LAD has signed Maddux Bruns (#1) for $2.20MM ($224,600 underslot), Lael Lockhart (#9) for $2,500 ($147,300 underslot), and Michael Hobbs (#10) for $2,500 ($139,700 underslot).  That is a bonus “savings” of $511,600.

They have two more college seniors (one a 5^th year senior) who will command well below their respective bonus slot: Ben Casparius (#5) – Bonus slot – $318,200

Ryan Sublette (#7) – Bonus slot – $194,400

Their 4^th round selection, Nick Nastrini, has zero leverage as he was removed from the UCLA rotation last year, and the Bruins have LOIs from a couple of outstanding HS pitchers.  His bonus slot is $430,800.

Of the remaining three, only MD HS pitcher Peter Heubeck was selected approximately where he was rated. He has a bonus slot of $577,000 but I would not expect him to receive an overslot bonus to buy out his Wake Forest commitment.  Thus him signing is not so certain.  The remaining two are 21 year old pitchers with limited leverage, and are expected to sign for below bonus slot.

Emmet Sheehan – $247,000 bonus slot

Ben Harris – $162,700 bonus slot

There is not one player in the 11^th to 20^th round that will be offered and sign over the $125K limit.

After the dismal 2018 draft, the limited 2020 draft, and now the 2021 draft, where are the future LAD regulars going to come from? They better hope their international signees produce.

Do not get me wrong.  I love these LAD MiLB players.  Nobody follows them more than me, maybe a couple as much as, but not more than.  I watch them more than the ML club.  I am just trying to be pragmatic about their future.

Okay I can get off my soapbox.  I spouted off enough.  Most corporate execs hope for the best, but plan for the worst.  What were the LAD plans.  One cannot anticipate all that has happened, but thus far, it does not look like LAD has planned for anything other than staying pat.  I do not like the “what if” game.  Per Michael Jordan, “It’s better to shoot and miss than to let time run out and wonder what if.”  “What if it doesn’t work. Ah, but what if it does.” “Better to say oops than what if”.

As a final note, the Dodgers may have another catcher to follow…Carson Taylor. He was last year’s #4 draft pick, and is now batting .286/.404/.442/.847 at A+ Great Lakes. He still needs work behind the dish, but he did pick off a runner at 2B last night. He is someone to follow.