My Baseball Conspiracy Theory
There are a lot of new commenters here since I first started writing for LADT in 2017, and I guess many do not know who I am. I will admit that this post is really out of my comfort zone. But I have been advised to push the comfort zone for better mental health. The other day, Mark intimated that I may have more contacts now than him. I have
There are a lot of new commenters here since I first started writing for LADT in 2017, and I guess many do not know who I am. I will admit that this post is really out of my comfort zone. But I have been advised to push the comfort zone for better mental health. The other day, Mark intimated that I may have more contacts now than him. I have no idea if that is true or not. Most of my contacts were from my son’s playing days. I used to have a lot more contact with former players, agents, scouts, coaches, and others around the periphery. I was pretty close to John Savage, the current UCLA head baseball coach, as he was Andy’s recruiting coach at UNR. I was also very close to Jim Ozella who is the baseball coach at Hart High School. He used to be the baseball coach at Bishop Alemany when Andy was a high school student/athlete. I have always wanted to ask both what they truly thought of Trevor Bauer, who they both coached. But I never thought that they would be all that forthcoming. Both coaches are really tight lipped regarding their athletes to the outside. I also wanted to ask Ozella what he thought of RVS. I am not a journalist, and I did not want to push the envelope I knew they would never open.
After my son’s stroke in 2017, many of those contacts slipped away. Some are no longer in baseball. MLB and MiLB is not for the faint of heart. Not all agents are Scott Boras, and most scouts barely make it by. When my son was scouted in the early 90’s, birddog scouts did not get paid, but many got a small bonus if one of their players got drafted, and maybe a little if he makes it to MLB. Those that present a few prospects, could work it into a low level payroll job that does not pay very much at all. Always on the road, 12 months of the year. Maybe a good life for a baseball junkie, but certainly not for a family person. I talked with countless number of those guys.
Many of my opinions have derived from my talks with Andy and those he has exposed me to. I have also had discussions with former ML players like Jon Garland, Jack Cassel, and Gary Matthews Jr. who I have watched since T-Ball days. Gary’s grandmother lived directly behind us in Granada Hills, and when he was there, Gary would jump the fence and knock on our back door for Andy to come out. Gary would often complain why I did not draft him to be on my youth league teams. I explained that he was too good and Andy and my coach’s son were always 1st round choices, and Gary was gone by then. One year I got lucky. Gary was 12 and Andy was 11 and I somehow got to pick Gary. I did not have to take my coach’s son until the 2nd round. We had 25 game season, and went 25-0.
I have talked with Jeff Suppan and Randy Wolf who were Andy’s teammates in winter ball (as 11 and 12 year olds). Jeff was later a teammate on their World Champion Mickey Mantle team. And Randy was later a teammate with Andy in the Phillies organization. They lived together with a sponsor family in Batavia, New York, directly across the street from the stadium. There are many others who were drafted and did not make it to ML for a myriad of reasons, who I got to know as high schoolers and into their college and MiLB days. I talked with many of the parents at games when Andy would be playing against their son’s teams. I would sit with team parents in his MiLB days. I heard more stories about what players were going through than I can remember.
After Andy retired due to injuries, I would get calls from scouts to see if I could get Andy to reconsider retirement. He was a perfect organizational fit as a AAAA player. He had an off the charts baseball IQ and was not afraid to coach the youngsters coming up, even though they would pass him by. He knew swing patterns better than many (if not most) of the coaches in MiLB, and his manager’s always picked his brain. Tito Francona was his favorite, and Francona loved Andy. I know Andy could have had a job with Cleveland had he wanted one. It was not for lack of trying. I know Ben Cherington called Andy numerous times to get him to consider coaching in Boston’s organization. Andy’s response was that he is not leaving Reno.
One of Andy’s closest friends was Gabe Kapler. Andy and Gabe played on the same scout league team in high school, with a lot of other high level players in the San Fernando Valley. They were also teammates on the 2004 Red Sox team. I was really hoping that Gabe got the LAD manager job. I know Zaidi liked Gabe, but Stan Kasten and the other owners were blown away with Dave Roberts’ interview. When Zaidi went to SF, he got the manager he always wanted. When Gabe was interviewing for the LAD manager’s job, Andy would say that he and Gabe were talking a lot. Andy laughed at me and told me not to get my hopes up. But it was also known that the only organization he would leave Reno for would be LAD. Gabe did not get the LAD job, so we will never know what might have happened.
Mark also made a comment that we do not get paid as writers for LADT. It has been pointed out that my writing is not worth what I do get paid, so what Mark is paying me is just fine.
I bring this up because while I may have some residue of contacts, most of my opinions are based on what those aforementioned players, etc. have discussed with me in the past. I have never once disclosed any conversation with any player, coach, FO, scout, agent, or parent, and never will. Most of the stories Andy has told me will never be disclosed unless he allows me to. He does have a good friend who is in the LAD organization, but I have never asked him if he would put us in communication with each other. Maybe I will after the season, but Andy believes in boundaries. With my depression, it is much more difficult for me to follow up with any of my former contacts. I still do not ask for any inside information from those that do periodically call and check in on me.
I am a retired CPA and CFO for multiple real estate organizations. Thus my love for numbers and finance. I am a baseball junkie who is fortunate to have a son make it to ML and get a World Series ring (Boston 2004). Andy was a AAAA player which is why I get upset with people who besmirch AAAA players like Raley, Reks, Neuse, and others. There are ways of making a point about these players without calling them bums or products of dumpster diving. They happen to be one of the top 900 players of baseball in the US, just not in the top 780. If the rosters were expanded to 26 when Andy played, I think he would have been that 26th player. I follow MLB A LOT, but I follow MiLB more than MLB, and have since the 70’s.
So now you know where I come from. With that in mind, I have a conspiracy theory that I want to espouse. It is my own and not based on any specific knowledge. I am a stat nerd, so I usually support many of my comments with stats (okay a lot of stats). I am also fascinated with baseball finances. When I got on my high horse and pontificated that LAD would not get to $250MM in payroll (as did Mark), we were challenged by BandP. I acknowledge he was right and I was wrong. While I never doubted that the Dodgers could afford the periodic extravagance, there would always need to be adjustments.
But I also believe that there is unwritten and unspoken collusion that occurs in MLB that was requiring the organizations with the best financial foundation to keep payroll in check. Go over the threshold periodically, but make sure you get underneath the “cap” before exceeding it in three consecutive seasons. I have always maintained that MLB is an oligarchy and needs the 30 teams to be competitive, at least once in a while. There is no way that anyone can convince me that NYY and Boston cannot afford the high salaries, but they “needed” to get underneath the threshold. Why???
My conspiratorial mind believes that the LAD owners are still bristling about the lack of punishment for the cheating ASStros players. They believe that the 2017 championship should have been won by LAD, and was stolen. I do believe that the lack of support that LAD received from the other owners gave the LAD owners the impetus to go full in and decided to not only go over the threshold, but to decimate it. Thus the Trevor Bauer contract.
With the current Trevor Bauer situation, I have a sinking feeling that LAD has wanted Manfred and MLB to suspend Bauer without pay, rather than keeping it in limbo with LAD continuing to pay Bauer’s salary. They do not need a finality to the legalities. MLB can and has in the past suspended players without indictments. MLB has stipulated that they do not need litigation for suspension. The CBA has given the Commissioner the right to suspend unilaterally. The player can appeal. Manfred is continuing with status quo. Why???? Manfred is loathsome when it comes to Bauer, so it is not because he has an affinity towards Trevor. I think it is more of a statement on what the Dodgers did with their signing of Bauer and their 2021 payroll. You signed him, now you can continue to pay him. Who here believes if this were the NYY, that Bauer would not be suspended?
With that in mind, I think it is plausible that the LAD owners have told AF to “F” it and go out and get greedy. Yes they needed starters and a RH bat, but in the past that was not Max Scherzer or Trea Turner. It would have been Tyler Anderson and Tyler White. After the Scherzer, Turner, and Duffy acquisitions, the Dodgers AAV for luxury tax purposes is estimated (by RosterResource) to be approximately $275MM. We will not know the actuals until December (I believe that is the date). Now the Dodgers have signed Cole Hamels. Of course this is not just for show. They believe it gives them the best chance to win in 2021. But they are not afraid to flaunt their financial might in light of what has happened to them. The owners know that their investment increases more by championships than by annual net operating revenues.
I will go one step further in my conspiracy. I think it is conceivable that the Dodger owners could push more on the side of the players when it comes to luxury tax and “salary caps” during the upcoming CBA negotiations. The “have nots” do not want to take their shared revenues and pay for players (the intent of the rule), so why should the Dodgers have to limit their financial strength just to placate those owners. I do concede that the LAD owners do indeed believe in the oligarchy structure, but I also hypothesize that they are not going to continue to let the owners dictate to them, when those same owners are unwilling to support them when needed.
I fully recognize that one of the unintended consequences of depression is paranoia and one’s ability to make mountains out of mole hills. I acknowledge that my suspicions are not based on anything other than sheer conjecture. Maybe some of the aforementioned conversations may have helped to form them. Nevertheless it is what I believe.
Now LAD, go out and win the 2021 WS and thumb your nose at the other owners. I would like nothing more than for Max Scherzer to start and pitch brilliantly in the championship winning game, with Danny Duffy and Cole Hamels shutting the opposition down in relief, and Trea Turner having a career day for the offense.
Go ahead Bluto, go ahead and tell me how farcical this all is. ☺
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Discussion (137)
Disagree, not disagreeable
Pollock has the best BA of any Dodger starter ( until Trea starts)!
Phil, couldn’t agree more regarding Joe rambling on about stray signing last night. And then to continue, as if anyone was interested while Altuva is getting struck out and the Dodger faithful are going nuts. If it was Vin all we would of heard was the crowd.
And Kristen is even harder to listen to, soft, screechy voice and going so fast this 70 year old can’t keep up.
Say again, no never mind.
Meant to say sign stealing.
Fascinating article AC. One that really got me thinking, which surely is the aim of any Blog Post.
I must say the quality of writing here is unbelievably good. Nice to see Rob back, but Michael has been the workhorse, producing interesting articles virtually every other day.
Well done Mark – this place goes from strength to strength.
AC quite rightly put me right early on about the trials and tribulations of Minor Leaguers, something I have never forgotten since. I was very condescending before that.
Some really interesting personal stories here today. Very humbling.
Jeff, hats off to you! This was one of the best posts on this website since I’ve been reading it. It made me think on many levels. First, I admire your courage and forthrightness about mental health issues. It obviously resonates with many of us. Second, I’ve always enjoyed your financial analyses and your devotion to minor league baseball and its players. Third, I didn’t know the full story of your son. He must be a special guy. Finally, I agree with others that your conspiracy theory is plausible. It has seemed obvious to me for years that there is a collusion among owners to keep total salary expenditures below a certain level. Otherwise, how else could you explain AFs coming from a small-market club – the Rays – and acting as if the Dodgers were also a small-market club? It perplexed me. Why, when he had the resources of the Dodgers at his disposal, did it take him years to finally spend the money on the kind of game changing player – Mookie – who could put them over the top? For years it seemed that the Dodgers were more interested in keeping costs down and profits up than in a championship. Something must have changed. Your theory about the Asstros cheating and the Dodgers management saying “FU” to Manfred and the owners makes sense. Of course, we’ll never learn the truth, but it is fun to speculate. Good to have you back with us!
Great read, Jeff. Thanks for all you contribute here.
I also very much appreciate how you’ve put yourself out there in an attempt to let us have a little bit of a deep dive into the life and times of Jeff Dominique. As you can see by the comments you’ve received today, there is lots of love and admiration coming back at you. Please keep those articles and comments coming, as often as you are able.
Someone mentioned earlier that it was a shame we don’t have more games against the Giants and Padres late in the season. Well, they’ve just released next year’s schedule and you should be very happy.
We have exactly one series against SF and one against SD in the first two months of the year, and then finish in September with 15 games against them (9 against SD and 6 against SF). That is assuming there is a season next year. And wouldn’t it be ironic if there was a strike and it lasted long enough to cancel the All Star Game, you know the one that’s supposed to be played at Dodger Stadium after already having been re-scheduled once due to the pandemic.
Oh well, time to concentrate on this year. Have we extended Scherzer yet?
For anyone who still reads the Athletic, they have an interesting story on how contrition and pay raises have effected the minor league guys. I’ve been very curious about this topic. Despite some pay raises, living conditions without host families due to covid are still substandard. My go to comment about the treatment of minor leaguers is “while they struggle along to get to a livable wage, Manny Machado, in 2019, made a touch over $51,000 per at bat.” With that kind of money floating around, wouldn’t you think teams could take better care of their minor league players?
I do know that some teams are building hotels, like Comfort Suites type buildings, at their spring training sites. There’s one at Goodyear. The Rangers have one at Surprise and the Royals are building one too. There may be more for Cactus League teams that I haven’t seen. These are undoubtedly available for Spring Training and the Summer League Players. That’s used instead of hotels. They can feed and house players with more control. I know the Dodgers has some problems a few years back, with some young players at a hotel in Westgate, with women and liquor involved. There’s lots of room and construction around Camelback Ranch. I would not be surprised to see the Dodgers and White Sox to build similar facilities.
But that doesn’t help players in East BF, USA. at every level. I don’t know why it’s so hard for businesses with billion dollar operations to take care of their young players.
D-Backs beating the hated ones 4-0 in the sixth. If they win, Dodgers are 3 back, if they lose, 4. Watched a little of the Angels game to see Peters. Jharel Cotton, who used to be a Dodger pitched two clean innings of relief for Texas.
D-bags choked the 4 run lead in the top of the ninth. Tie game
And 2 strikes
D-Backs definitely not the Dodgers when it comes to working the count. Rogers threw 3 straight balls to Ahmed who swung at the 4th and flied out, then on 6 more pitches Rogers gets Marte and Kelly both on fly ball outs. Into extra innings. Gilbert now pitching for Az, and LaStella starts the inning on second, Bryant at the plate for SF.
Some of you know that I believe that Friedman doesn’t value the bullpen as much as offense and starting pitching and this is not an overall knock on Friedman because overall I think Friedman is good at what he does. Some of you know that I like the OPS stat a lot not only for offense but also for pitching. Some of you know that because of the 3 batter minimum rule I like the OPS vs RHB and LHB stat a lot. Some of you know that I don’t like an OPS above .700 vs RHB and LHB for relievers.
So lets take a look at the Dodgers bullpen and who has an OPS above .700 vs either RHB or LHB for this season or over their career or both.
Blake Treinen career .738 vs LHB
Victor Gonzalez career .732 vs RHB and 2021 .897 vs RHB
Joe Kelly career .726 vs LHB and close to .700 vs RHB
Phil Bickford career 1.046 vs LHB and 2021 1.046 vs LHB
Jimmy Nelson career .781 vs LHB
Scott Alexander career .714 vs RHB and 2021 .792 vs RHB
Brusdar Graterol career .826 vs LHB and 2021 .747 vs LHB
Corey Knebel career .722 vs RHB
I didn’t list the AAA relievers who come and go. then we all know about Kenley Jansen’s inconsistencies.
So this is why I am sketchy about our bullpen. And why I believe if the Dodgers get knocked out of the playoffs it will be because of our bullpen. And why I say the bullpen is the weak link.
Painful to watch the Giants come back to lead this game.
Giants won! Pathetic!!
Well the Giants came back from a 4-0 deficit in the 9th inning and beat Dbacks in extra innings.
In a nutshell, this game shows why the Giants are 4 games in front of the Dodgers.
The Giants get timely hitting, have a great bullpen, and win close games. The Dodgers do not. And no matter how many bullpen stats Mark tries to invent, the Dodgers bullpen has not been good. They missed out by not re-signing McGee, who closed the door on the Dbacks.
A great stat from True Blue LA showed that in extra innings, the Dodgers bullpen has given up runs in a staggering 13 straight extra inning frames.
And the Dodger castoff, McGee managed to shutdown Dbacks today.
The Giants are showing us that baseball is a great game and that just spending the most money or even putting the most talent on a roster does not guarantee a championship.
The Dodgers had every opportunity to beat the Giants in the last 7 games but managed to lose 5 of them. And those games very well may have cost them the division title.
For those who haven’t looked at the SF schedule, after 3 in Milwaukee they have 2 more with the Dbacks and 4 with the Rockies.
While that’s happening we have 3 with the Angels, 3 with the Phils and 3 with the Mets.
We may not be catching them any time soon.
Trevor Bauer’s Administrative Leave To Be Extended Through August 13
By Tim Dierkes | August 5, 2021 at 5:32pm CDT
AUGUST 5: Bauer’s administrative leave will be extended tomorrow, reports Jon Heyman of MLB Network (Twitter link). This extension will run through August 13, reports Bill Shaikin of the Los Angeles Times (on Twitter).
You can ridicule my bullpen stats all you want, but the fact remains that the Dodgers bullpen, as abysmal as it has been at times, is still Top Ten in Bullpen ERA. Still, the bottom line is not what history shows, but what lies in the future. How will they perform in October is all I am concerned with… and I think they are coming together.
Showing up late, but I really appreciate the candidness of the blog. Talking baseball among real people = nothing better as it combines both logic and emotions.
On that note, just read box score and saw the Giants post a 4 spot in the 9th and then come back to win in the 10th. Furthermore, K Bryant was a key contributor. Now reading the post about how Farhan really wanted Gabe but the others preferred Roberts over an interview gives me a sinking feeling. As a Dodgers fan, I hope I’m wrong. At the same time, I can put aside baseball and glean that these are real people with real lives and am happy for former Dodgers Kaplar and Farhan if that is the outcome. The bottom line is that at this moment in time, the rival Giants are doing what it takes to win games and the Dodgers (outside blow out wins) are not. Still time to turn around but every day is another small piece of evidence that the best team on paper doesnt always win. The performance from Scherzer last night was gritty and exactly what we need. I’ll be looking for the same from here on out.
Cartaya and Pepiot made Kiley M’s new top 50 Prospect list:
Open on www.espn.comhttps://www.espn.com/mlb/insider/story/_/id/31958336/kiley-mcdaniel-midseason-top-50-mlb-prospectsThe great Eric Longenhagen has this to say about Dodgers righty Hyun-il Choi
He’s experienced a little bit of a velo bump (more 92-95 than 88-92, where he was in 2019) and shown remarkable strike-throwing ability; he’s only run three 3-0 counts all year. A plus splitter, at least plus command, and viable fastball velocity make him a high-probability big league starter.
Longenhagen also put former Dodger prospects at #1 and #3 in terms of those traded at the deadline:
Open on blogs.fangraphs.comhttps://blogs.fangraphs.com/ranking-the-prospects-traded-during-the-2021-deadline/Don’t look now #1, but Andy Pages has been on a tear since mid-July, slashing .380/.494/.761 in his last 20 games. Despite his occasional strike zone deficiencies, he hit his 22nd homer for Great Lakes, 101 mph off the bat, 396 feet, and he went 2/3 with 2 walks tonight overall.
Dodgers signed an undrafted player, Jack @Dreyer from Iowa. Lw-90’s fastball with a curveball, slider, and a changeup. In college he struck out 23 batters in 21.2 innings, limiting them to a .171 batting average.
Don’t look now, #2, but Cameron Gibbens’ 4is promotedand still rocking! Now in AA Tulsa, he had a perfect 2.0 IP debut . Ascending from Low A to AA in a single minor league season is always noteworthy!
Don’t look now, #3, but from FutureDodgers:
The move is not official yet (should be tomorrow), but SS Eddys Leonard is heading to High-A Great Lakes.
He’s been arguably Rancho’s best hitter all year, hitting .295/.399/.544 (146 wRC+) with 14 HR. 11 BB%, 24 K%, 11.6 SwStr%.
Still 20 years old, won’t turn 21 until December
If the Dodgers finally stay healthy I still like their chances to win the division. Would hate to go into a one game playoff vs the Friars.
Dodgers have to start winning the close games immediately. Giants so far have found a thousand ways to win games and the Dodgers to lose .
The two blown saves vs the Giants by KJ in the last series are the difference in the standings. Otherwise we would be tied.
Go Dodgers!!!!!!!!!!
Great article indeed, thanks.
I have no doubt there is a LAD jealousy. I wonder why it took so long for MLB to approve the Scherzer/Turner trade. I’m surprised we also didn’t throw in Lux as well as the 4 prospects to kind of balance it out. And of course, I’m sure this is part of the reason as to why Manfred didn’t strip the Astros of their title.
Not sure why MLB doesn’t have a salary cap like NFL and NHL…..the Luxuary tax doesn’t exactly assure equality, but it does make a few of the players richer.
I am generally allergic to conspiracy theories. Largely due to the fact that the vast majority simply make no sense whatsoever. They are often what I would describe as one of the more extreme examples of cognitive bias. If things aren’t how you would like them to be, one concocts some ridiculously unlikely (often laughingly complex) scenario to make the world conform to a particular bias.
That said, I am inclined to agree with you on this one, Jeff. We share the same bias (Dodgers). So there is that. However, as you stated, MLB is not like most industries. There are few, if any, industries as strange as MLB. It is run by a cabal of oligarchs. It’s more of a club than an industry. You really do have to be invited to join.
I would have to go back and re-read a lot of old articles to recall all the details. But I read some very solid writing years back on the circumstances that resulted in Frank McCourt owning the Dodgers. When John Henry purchased the Red Sox, I recall McCourt was intent on litigating due to the fact that he claimed the process was rigged (of course it was). It has been alleged that McCourt was promised by MLB that he would receive preferential treatment when the next large club to came up for sale. That club was the Dodgers (lucky us). We all, especially here, know how that played out. I still get a feeling in my stomach akin to eating some bad oysters whenever the name Frank McCourt is spoken aloud. I still can’t stand the man. But I also hold a lingering contempt for MLB that they permitted that man to sink his dirty fingers into my team. After all the terrible years, bankruptcy, courtroom divorce drama and the general pillaging of my beloved team for his own lifestyle; I’m still not fully recovered. And I believe MLB is responsible for a good portion of that by simply letting that man anywhere near a MLB ball club.
So given the history, that I know for certain, in terms of how MLB can operate like a cartel, as opposed to an industry, I can believe that there might be some conspiracy theory like stuff going on. No antitrust laws to be wary of. They can really do whatever they like.
I have heard recently that we are the new “evil empire”. Well, MLB stuck us with Frank McCourt. When there were other (countless) potential ownership groups who would have done right by the Dodgers (As our current owners have). We had to endure one of the most gut wrenching periods in MLB history under his ownership. How many MLB teams have gone bankrupt? Much less one of the legendary teams in a top 5 US city!
So MLB might be trying to stick it to the Dodgers again. I can buy it. As they say; “So what is knew?”
Rain forecast to start in 30-45 min from this post. Forecast to go for 90-120 minutes.
cheers