Miguel Vargas, Pavlov's Dog, and the Trade Deadline
Over the years, I have made plenty of blunders with predictions. I once predicted that Andy LaRoche would be a superstar, and that never came close to working out. I plead insanity on that one. I also predicted great things for Frank McCourt as the owner of the Dodgers – I was…
Over the years, I have made plenty of blunders with predictions. I once predicted that Andy LaRoche would be a superstar, and that never came close to working out. I plead insanity on that one. I also predicted great things for Frank McCourt as the owner of the Dodgers – I was looking at it as a small business owner, and I felt that he was in a position where if he was patient, he could build an empire. Well, he built an empire – one that went bankrupt and crashed and burned as he and the witch he was married to plundered the team. But that scumbag collected billions, and he is still reaping the benefits… but I digress!
Some players that I felt would be good weren’t, and some that I felt would not be worth a darn were great. I would rate my record as “above average,” but by no means am I right 100% of the time! However, I am not wrong about Miguel Vargas. Time will tell who the moron is. Walker Buehler said that Vargy “would win some MVP’s” – I don’t know if I will go that far, but he is not far off. Most baseball people and baseball fans that I know also believe the same thing… especially if they have seen his swing and watched him play. However, there are a couple of commenters who simply live to ridicule me in their comments. I am Pavlov, and they are the dog!
I ring a bell, and they salivate so much that they have to replace their keyboards every three weeks. They are conditioned to react whenever I mention Miguel Vargas and cannot help themselves. Actually, their ridicule is a backhanded compliment in that I seem to have complete control over them. They live to mock the fact that Vargas was called up last year and hit .170, and this year is below the Mendoza line. That he was sent back to AAA was almost orgasmic for them.
They are certain that I am just making excuses to cover up my prediction. Well, I am going to double down and once again say that Miguel Vargas will be a very, very good player. Maybe a superstar… maybe not – but a very, very good player! It was pointed out that the Dodgers re-made Will Smith’s and James Outman’s swings. The Dodgers have remade the swings of a number of players. Let’s not forget why the Dodgers acquire a hitter:
#1. He is established as a very good hitter: Think: Betts, Freeman, Peralta; or
#2. He is struggling, and they think they may have a “fix.” Think: Gallo, Muncy, Heyward, J-Turner, JDM, Outman, Smith
It doesn’t always work – that we know! But, it does work some of the time. Jake Marisnick was clearly acquired for the #2 reason. He may go the path of Gallo or Heyward. I have no clue, but past performance may not be indicative of future results. I have no clue how it will work, but you have to understand the “context” in which Marisnick was acquired! The Dodgers evidently think they can “fix him.” They couldn’t fix Gallo, but let me explain why the Dodgers took the risk and traded Clayton Beeter (a solid arm) for Gallo: It’s the 100 Strikeout/100 Walk Syndrome. Players who walk at least 100 times and strike out at least 100 times are a rare breed and usually are pretty good. This 100/100 Club includes Joey Gallo, Joey Votto, Mike Trout, and Aaron Judge. Max Muncy has been close and several others have done it… but not many! Joey Gallo had an OPS+ of 85 for the Dodgers (it was 78 for the Yankees before he was traded). His OPS+ is 108 for the Twins this season. That’s why the Dodgers took him, but maybe he’s a guy who does not flourish in a big market. It was a low-risk – high-reward move that failed, but a thinking person could understand why the move was made.
Back to Vargas: He did not need his swing “re-made.” I am frequently called a “Dodger Homer” but then when I criticize the Dodgers (like in the case of re-making Vqrgas’ swing), things like this are said: “Mark obviously needs someone to blame for Miguelito’s failure to progress. He desperately wants Vargas to have an excuse.” So, I am a “Homer” if I agree and am “just looking for an excuse” if I don’t! Ha, Ha! It sucks to be me. NOT! I am OK with it. It comes with the territory. Well, Miguel did not need his swing re-made. The Dodgers did not re-make Freddies or Mookies swings. In fact, Mookie said that he does not know how to pull a ball! Once again, only a moron would think that trying to re-make Miguel’s swing was not a factor in his lack of success. I wonder when it was suggested that he try and pull the ball more? Was it last year? Last winter? Spring Training or the start of the season? I don’t know when, but we do know it was offered! The Dodgers remade James Outman’s and Will Smith’s swings because they were not hitters before the rebuilds, but Miguel Vargas did not need his swing remade. NO WAY! NO HOW!
It was an obvious mistake by the Dodgers to try and get Vargas to become pull-happy. Baseball is changing, and speed and hitting to all fields is coming back into vogue. I agree with Phil Jones that the Dodgers are trying to head in that direction as well. Their first draft pick exemplifies that. Hopefully, they do not try to convert him to a power hitter as they did Jeren Kendall and Jake Vogel. Both were resounding failures. Miguel Vargas is a player that I believe will hit .300+ with 15 to 20 HR (maybe as he matures, he will hit more… naturally) and be a top-to-middle-of-the-order hitter. I have no problem with the Max Muncys, but for every Max Muncy, you need a Freddie Freeman, and for every JD Martinez, you need a Miguel Vargas.
The Trade Deadline
Most Dodger fans want to make a trade or multiple trades. They want Ohtani, Gilito, Anderson, Robert, Adames, Burnes, and Yelich immediately. The thing is: hardly any of that will happen. After nine long years, Andrew Friedman has gotten the Dodgers’ Farm System to where it is one of the best in baseball… if not THE BEST! If you spent nine years building up something, would you want to gut it? I think not! If you think Michael Busch is just trade bait, you are a ___________ (you fill in the blank!) I am not saying that Michael Busch might not get traded, but it will not be on just a whim.
Michael Busch is a solid everyday player, and while not spectacular, players like him do not grow on trees. He can play 2B, 3B, and LF, or DH. I did not think he had the arm for 3B, but it turns out he does. Ray Charles saw it and told me! I am not saying that the Dodgers will not make any trades, but the Farm System is about to start producing. Now is not the time to trade it away. Many of you do not know that but thank goodness Andrew Friedman does. Most of you were soooooo jealous of what AJ Preller did last winter, and you wanted the Dodgers to do the same.
The Village Idiot Preller signed Xander Bogarts for $280 Million to play SS. He is the worst fielding SS in the NL and has an OPS+ of 106 – barely above average. I never knew average players cost $280 Million. AJ Preller is a card-carrying moron of the Certified Moron Club. Wanna join? It’s Free! Now, the Padres are on the verge of a fire sale. As I told you long ago: “Never underestimate the ability of AJ Preller to screw things up.” Additionally, Peter Seidler is a novice… a boy among men!
Lucas Giolito is the target of many Dodger fans. He is not the Dodger’s savior, but the Dodgers could be his. Some idiots will overpay for him, but understand this: Lucas Giloito is a 29-year-old underperforming, in the process of a divorce, below-average MLB pitcher… who could resurrect his career with the help of Mark Prior (ala Tyler Anderson). The ChiSox are not trading Robert, and Tim Anderson could wreck the Dodgers’ culture, but Giolito could become the Ace everyone thought he would be under Mark Prior.
Here’s the deal: Andy Pages, Yenier Fernandez, Eddys Leonard, Nick Nastrini, or Maddux Bruns for Lucas Giolito! The Dodgers do not need Tim Anderson, and Luis Robert is not going anywhere! Giolito has a career 4.22 ERA, and he is in the midst of a divorce (as if any divorce is not nasty). Lucas and his wife, Debuelko were high school sweethearts, and it’s hard to say where his head is. However, it’s a risk and one that I would take… especially if he would consider a two-year extension!
If the Dodgers could get a right fielder to platoon with Heyward, then I would be all in for that, and it should not cost an arm and a leg. Stay the course. Don’t trade Vargas, Cartaya, Miller, Stone, Frasso, Ryan, Rushing, and Busch. Play Mookie at 2B or SS… depending on what happens with Vargas!
The Dodgers need one more stud starter, and platoon partner with Jason Heyward in RF. THe bullpen will solve itself. There are too many arms. We have closer options.
Paul Harvey’s Last Interview
Since I mentioned him a couple of days ago, I found this. Paul Harvey is an American Icon! This was recorded shortly before his death.
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Discussion (86)
Disagree, not disagreeable
Bleacher Report also suggests this trade:
Proposed Trade: Dodgers get DH/RHP Shohei Ohtani, Angels get INF Michael Busch, RHP Nick Frasso, OF Andy Pages, RHP Nick Nastrini and OF Josue De Paula
If the Angels are going to trade Ohtani to the Dodgers, one would think that they’d only double down on a desire to extract all they can. In this case, they’d get the No. 32 (Busch), No. 63 (Frasso) and No. 68 (Frasso) prospects in our rankings, not to mention two others who rank within the Dodgers’ top 10 at MLB.com.
They have several other proposals. https://bleacherreport.com/articles/10082614-shohei-ohtani-trade-packages-for-the-yankees-dodgers-and-more
I would think that the Reds could also be a landing spot.
Bleacher Report has their UPDATED Farm System Rankings out:
Open on bleacherreport.comhttps://bleacherreport.com/articles/10082392-updated-mlb-farm-system-rankings-after-2023-mlb-draftThe ASStros are last, #30! Good!
They have the Dodgers at #2, just behind Baltimore.
Top 10 Prospects
1. C Diego Cartaya (Tier 1)
2. 2B Michael Busch (Tier 1)
3. RHP Emmet Sheehan (Tier 1)
4. C Dalton Rushing (Tier 1)
5. RHP Nick Frasso (Tier 1)
6. OF Andy Pages (Tier 1)
7. RHP Gavin Stone (Tier 2)
8. C Thayron Liranzo (Tier 2)
9. OF Josue De Paula (Tier 2)
10. 3B Jake Gelof (Tier 3)
In the middle of a season no player ever says I am doing poorly because of injuries. But two hand injuries in one season has to affect your swing
I think Vargas will figure it out. He is young and it is a big jump from AAA to the MLB for most players. Plus he had to learn a new position and battle hand injuries. He seems to have a great work ethic, super attitude, and baseball is in his family. I like the move to AAA now to give him consistent ABs and build back his confidence.
Will be old fashioned listening to the game tonight. Im not paying Apple $7.00. And if I fall asleep I can catch the game tomorrow morning on MLB.TV.
Hope we start on the good note.
Here’s a recent article on Vargas:
The Dodgers still believe in Vargas long-term, and they have every reason to not lose faith in his ability. But his batted ball profile is concerning with an average exit velocity in the 12th percentile of MLB players and a hard hit rate in the 11th percentile.
Roberts also sees an issue with Vargas’ ability to hit pitches inside the zone. “I think the biggest surprise is he’s missing a lot of pitches that are in the strike zone,” Roberts noted.
“I think that’s the biggest thing. No one is trying to miss or foul balls off, but at this level, if you get pitches in the hitting zone and you miss them, or foul them off or pop them up, that’s a hard way for live. That’s the most telling thing for me.”
While the Dodgers are still trying to figure out the exact issue, there may be a change Vargas needs to make with his swing.
“There’s some mechanical, there’s a little late in getting ready, there’s a little trying to do too much with potential of pulling the baseball versus trying to just log some hits,” Roberts said.
Although Vargas began the year with a bone fracture in his right hand, Roberts doesn’t believe that is a contributing issue.
2023 Baseball America Scouting Report:
Vargas is as complete a hitter as any player his age. He has outstanding control of the strike zone, an innate sense for which pitches to attack and an elite feel for the barrel. He squares up all types of pitches with a direct, inside-out swing that stays in the zone for a long time and covers the entire plate, giving pitchers few holes to attack. He naturally drives the ball the opposite way to right-center field and has begun turning on pitches on the inner half. Vargas doesn’t have huge raw power, but he’s a borderline plus-plus hitter who makes so much quality contact he should reach 20-plus home runs as he gets stronger. Vargas has remade his body to become sleeker and faster and is now a plus runner who posted the second-fastest sprint speed on the Dodgers in 2022. The improved agility has helped his range at third base, but he’s still a below-average defender whose actions, footwork, throwing accuracy and focus need improvement. He is raw and inexperienced at first base, second base and left field.
The Future: Vargas earns frequent comparisons to countryman Yuli Gurriel and has similar potential to be a premier hitter who contends for batting titles. The Dodgers will try to find Vargas’ best position to get him in the lineup every day in 2023.
Scouting Grades: Hitting: 65. Power: 50. Speed: 60. Fielding: 40. Arm: 55
Verlander vs Urias tonight. No listed starters for tomorrow, but we get old friend Scherzer on Sunday and again, no starter listed for LA for that game. Have coaches tinkered with Vargas’s swing? I absolutely believe they have. How much, I do not know, but I know by just watching replays of last year’s games that this is the case. Swing looks much different coming out of spring training than it did last season.
Excuse my interruption of this back and forth with Duke, but this entire article was written around the notion that the Dodgers ruined Vargas by trying to remake his swing and turn him into a pull hitter. Paragraphs were devoted to expanding on this idea.
Uhhh. Is this actually true? I skimmed through a couple of times to find the part where Mark talks about the article that references an insider talking about it, or Dave Roberts mentioning it.
Nothing.
I think this is an example of assuming facts not in evidence (or pulling something out of one’s **s).
No matter. It sounds good. Makes for good debate fodder, but just thought I’d mention it’s a fever dream.
I’d almost rather wait for Pepiot than spend prospect capital on Giolito. Hard no on any package that includes both Pages and Bruns. Bruns is probably my favorite prospect. His stuff is electric-fastball that touches 98 and a hammer curve. Sometimes he struggles to hit the side of a barn with it, but he was drafted out of high school. He’s young, and there’s still a lot of years for the Dodgers to teach him how to throw strikes. Giolito is on an expiring contract anyway. The package the Dodgers put together to get Machado – who was a stud – was way less than this. NO!
Interesting stat about Xander. Preller is sort of a bone head. I would have fired him after trading for Kemp. But, he has created a buzz in Diego for the Padres. They’re popular finally. I would have to think, though, that if they flounder again next year than the experiment might come to an end and they blow it up. The Padres aren’t Cohen and can’t light money on fire in perpetuity.
“Adversity causes some men to break and others to break records.” Now we’ll see what Vargas is made of. I think he’s the latter.
100 percent agree on Vargas. Kid will be a stud not far down the line.
Disagree on the Giolito trade. Way too much we would give up in the proposed trade.
Bruns is a guy I would not give up. I see some Kersh in his left arm.
Grove or Nastrini, Ramos (Pages is on the IL and probably can not be traded) , Fernandez, Leonhard for Giolito and I do it.
Go Dodgers!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
I for one do not make predictions simply because I suck at it! I liked what I saw of Vargas last year, even though he did not have that much success. But I remember his homer as being a line drive to left center field. He hit it against St. Louis during a series in September. He was playing first base that game. As for pulling the ball, JD Martinez told Mookie during the Home Run Derby to pull the ball. Mookie’s reply was, I don’t know how to pull the ball. Classic and probably very true since if you watch Mookie hit a lot, he takes the ball where it is pitched. I think the Dodgers will trade for a starting pitcher and maybe a back of the pen type of arm. They can get both from the White Sox as it seems they are going to make Mark Leiter available.
Um, Duke you’re up.