Midseason Dodger Prospect Report
Baseball America just released their Midseason Prospect Report and most notably, Cody Bellinger is no longer a prospect. Go figure I guess hitting 25 HR for the Dodgers does bad things to your prospect status. This time, the Dodgers have only four prospects in the Top 100. Willie Calhoun jumped from #92 to #73 That s what happens when you hit those long-balls. Yadier Alvarez dropped from #26 to
Baseball America just released their Midseason Prospect Report and most notably, Cody Bellinger is no longer a prospect. Go figure – I guess hitting 25 HR for the Dodgers does bad things to your prospect status. This time, the Dodgers have only four prospects in the Top 100.
- Willie Calhoun jumped from #92 to #73 – That’s what happens when you hit those long-balls.
- Yadier Alvarez dropped from #26 to #59 – That’s what being fat between the ears will get you.
- Alex Verdugo jumped up to #35 from #58 – That’s what happens when you hit .350.
- Walker Freaking Buehler went from Not Rated to #17! – Wow! That’s what happens when you are really, really good!
Buehler jumped ahead of Michael Kopech, the White Sox phenomenon who can throw like 150. Anytime the Dodgers talk trade, the other teams are asking for Buehler and Verdugo. I would not entertain trading either one and teams are losing interest in Alvarez who looks to me to be a closer. Baseball America wrote this about Buehler and Kopech:
A scout who has seen both Kopech and Buehler said he loved both of their arms, but it was Buehler’s stuff that left him shaking his head.
“It’s in the top group of arms I’ve seen,” the scout said. “He’s got No. 1-type starter stuff. He’s got four pitches that all have a chance to be average or better. Everything was electric. Everything was a swing and miss pitch.”
“His arm is fast,easy and loose,” the scout said. “He’s a future No.1. … I’d take either one of them right now,” the scout said, “but Buehler is more refined. Even though they are at the same level, Buehler is more advanced.”
BA went on to say that Buehler sat at 97-98 MPH, didn’t dip below 96 and touched 99 and that his fastball has “solid late movement.” They also said that “Buehler attacks and gets ahead of hitters.”
Walker Buehler is likely be in the Dodgers’ rotation next year. Kershaw, Wood, Buehler, Hill and Mac?
Rants and Raves
- The Cubs paid dearly to get Jose Quintana giving up Eloy Jimenez (Ranked #5) and Dylan Cease (#82) among others.
- On the previous thread, I saw AC’s link to Fanragsports. I like the idea of Zach Britton. Baltimore needs starters. Ryu and Maeda? What would it take?
- On Alex Verdugo: I heard he was not happy with batting 8th last night in the All-Star Game. “Well, you didn’t get a hit, so they were right! Grow up!” That may be his only issue.
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Discussion (68)
Disagree, not disagreeable
A look at the payroll tax penalty:
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2017 threshold: $195 million
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2018: $197 million
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2019: $206 million
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These are the penalties:
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• First time over: 20 percent tax on the overage
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• Second consecutive time: 30 percent
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• Third consecutive time: 50 percent
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There are also surtaxes:
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• Between $20 million and $40 million over the threshold: 12 percent
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• $40 million over: 42.5 percent
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• Second consecutive time $40 million over: 45 percent
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Th 42.5 percent tax rate, for example, is only on the dollars spent beyond the $40 million already above the threshold. So if the threshold is $195 million and a team spends $236 million, a potential 92.5 percent tax rate is applied only to the $1 million over $235 million, not the entire $41 million over the threshold.
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Los Angeles Dodgers
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2014/2017: $257.2 million payroll ($195 million threshold)
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Payroll: $62.2 million over threshold
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Tax: 20 percent for first time over ($12.4 million)
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Surtax: 42.5 percent on $22.2 million ($9.4 million)
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Total tax: $21.8 million
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2015/2018: $291.1 payroll ($197 million threshold)
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Payroll: $94.1 million over threshold
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Tax: 30 percent for second time over ($28.2 million)
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Surtax: 45 percent on $54.1 million ($24.3 million)
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Total tax: $52.5 million
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2016/2019: $275 million estimated payroll ($206 million threshold)
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Payroll: $69 million over threshold
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Tax: 50 percent for third time over ($34.5 million)
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Surtax: 45 percent on $29 million ($13.1 million)
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Total tax: $47.6 million
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Draft Pick Compensation: The changes are numerous and complex but address everything from the Qualifying Offer system to those that break the Luxury Tax.
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Clubs may not tender a Qualifying Offer to a player who has previously received a Qualifying Offer.
The time period during which a player can accept a Qualifying Offer will be extended from 7 to 10 days.
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Clubs signing a Free Agent subject to compensation will no longer forfeit a first round selection, but will be subject to the following:
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A non-market disqualified Revenue Sharing Payee Club shall forfeit its third highest remaining selection in the next Rule 4 Draft.
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A Luxury Tax offender shall forfeit its second-highest and fifth-highest remaining selections in the next Rule 4 Draft and shall have its International Signing Bonus Pool (described below) reduced by $1,000,000 in the next full Signing Period.
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All other Clubs shall forfeit their second-highest remaining selection in the next Rule 4 Draft and shall have their International Signing Bonus Pool reduced by $500,000 in the next full Signing Bonus Period.
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All forfeited International Signing Bonus Pool monies will be distributed equally among all other Clubs. Competitive Balance Selections will be exempt from forfeiture.
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A Former Club of a Free Agent subject to draft pick compensation will receive the following:
A non-market disqualified Revenue Sharing Payee Club shall receive a selection immediately following the first round of the draft if the player signs a contract with a total guarantee of $50 million or more.
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Clubs that break the Luxury Tax threshold shall receive a draft selection immediately following the fourth round of the next Rule 4 Draft.
All other former clubs shall receive a selection immediately following the Competitive Balance Round B of the next Rule 4 Draft (which follows the second round).
Taking a look at BA’s Top 100, I noticed that neither JDL or Grant Holmes are listed any longer. In addition, SFG #1 pitching prospect, Tyler Beede has also dropped out. Beede was included as one of the fastest dropping players in 2017. He is still young enough to turn it around, but it is still good to see the continuation of the SFG slide at both the ML level and MiLB level.
Red Sox DFA the Panda!
The 2018 payroll tax threshold is $197.
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2017 Dodger payroll includes 38 total players and $241,149,167 total salary.
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The 2018 payroll will not include Ethier at $17.5M, Crawford at $21.8M, Guerro at $7.5M for a total of $46M.
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McCarthy $11.5M, Gonzales $22.4M, Puig $9.2M, Kazmir $17.7M, Ryu $7.8M, Maeda $3.1M
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Those players total $71.7M
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2017 salary of Stanton $25M; Ozuna $3.5M but Ozuna is Arb eligible so that will jump to my wild guess of $12M. Together, Stanton and Ozuna payroll for 2018 might be $37M
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$241M less $71M plus $37M = $307M which would extend the Dodger consecutive year over the max non-penalty payroll level.
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Myself, I would only trade for Stanton if Ozuna came in the package but I can’t see the Dodgers making such a trade without getting under $197M payroll in 2018.
Re Stanton: no
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He is a player I’d love to see on the Dodgers if only so we don’t have to face him. I get nervous every time he and Dbacks Goldsmith come to the plate.
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That being said, his contract length is a deal breaker. In the current era of no sterods/peds players age faster. Their performance degrades and they dont bounce back from injuries.
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The new contract paradigm may need to front load contracts. Over pay yearly from 25-31 but avoid much money beyond–money you can afford to loose when you DFA a player when you need the roster spot.