Maybe Turner Ward Was Just Plain Wrong!

I have been doing a lot of thinking and analysis and while I am a believer in analytics, I do not think that stats are the end all, be all. Humans play the game of baseball and no human can be fully captured with a single stat. However, there are a few statistics that just totally jump out at me. For example, when a batter has two strikes on them, they have very little chance of getting a hit. It’s way under .200.

On the average, when a MLB hitter has a 2 strike count on him, he has less than a 1 on 5 chance of getting on base. In fact, the best chance a hitter has is at 3-2 when the average batting average is .202. .202! That sucks! The fact remains that a hitter is most likely to get a hit when they only have no strikes or one strike. I am not just talking about the Dodgers, but EVERY MLB team. This is what is happening to all teams, not just the Dodgers… maybe they are even worse. I haven’t researched that.

There are exceptions. Mookie Betts hit .300 with two strikes last season… but has never approached that average before. He had a “special” season in 2018. Now, since this is a reality, is it caused by the “approach” of hitters when they have two strikes? Anthony Rizzo, who is generally recognized as good hitter, changes his approach with two strikes: he chokes up on the bat. One of the changes Robert Van Socyoc is trying to make is to have the Dodger hitters shorten up their swings, or “choke up” with two strikes.

However, I wonder if being patient is really a virtue. Turner Ward preached “working the count.” Is that really smart when the statistics show that when a hitter gets two strikes, he hits below .200? Working the count so that you have a less than one in five chance of getting a hit seems really silly to me. What seems to be a better strategy is to look for a certain pitch in a certain area (you can’t cover the whole strike zone) early in the count. If you see it – you hit it!

I think that is part of RVS’s plan, but old habits die hard. You can be too eager, just like you can be too patient. There’s a fine line between Saturday Night and Sunday Morning! This process is going to take a while – some players “get it” already. With others, it may be a process and other may never get it. We should see incremental improvement, I would think, but who knows? That’s why they play the game.

The Freeway Series

I think the Angels are more excited about playing the Dodgers in the Freeway Series than the Dodgers are about playing the Angels. It showed last night. It’s like playing your little brother and he beats you… but you really don’t care because down deep, you know you can kick his butt! The next two games won’t mean much as guys are just getting tuned up. I would not be surprised to see the Angels sweep. Muncy, Seager, Turner and Bellinger look ready. Everyone else is sleepwalking. Reminder: Spring Training doesn’t mean much.

Other Dodger News

• The Dodgers claimed Justin Grimm, who opted out of his contract with Cleveland. Of course, we already know that Brad Miller signed with them. Grimm has never been “all that” but sometimes a change of scenery is all that is needed or not… He is in the mix.
• I don’t know if the final decision has been made here’s the Roster of the following teams:

OKLAHOMA CITY

TULSA

Again, I am not sure they have been assigned, but if they have been, the Dodgers are not rushing anyone.